1 00:00:00,866 --> 00:00:03,467 To have a host an event 2 00:00:03,467 --> 00:00:04,499 To have a host an event together with the European 3 00:00:04,499 --> 00:00:06,533 together with the European Investment Bank on this 4 00:00:06,533 --> 00:00:09,866 Investment Bank on this afternoon, panels on the issue 5 00:00:09,866 --> 00:00:13,567 afternoon, panels on the issue of impact and we are here to 6 00:00:13,567 --> 00:00:14,533 of impact and we are here to discuss and try to understand 7 00:00:14,533 --> 00:00:16,733 discuss and try to understand the impact of policy 8 00:00:16,733 --> 00:00:18,233 the impact of policy interventions. Ukraine them in 9 00:00:18,233 --> 00:00:20,400 interventions. Ukraine them in the instance of the 19, it has 10 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:22,233 the instance of the 19, it has been a number of very big 11 00:00:22,233 --> 00:00:24,266 been a number of very big interventions by basically all 12 00:00:24,266 --> 00:00:25,866 interventions by basically all countries as well as a number 13 00:00:25,866 --> 00:00:28,500 countries as well as a number of European institutions and 14 00:00:28,500 --> 00:00:29,700 of European institutions and the European Investment Bank is 15 00:00:29,700 --> 00:00:30,733 the European Investment Bank is one of them and we’re gonna 16 00:00:30,733 --> 00:00:32,500 one of them and we’re gonna hear from them in a minute 17 00:00:32,500 --> 00:00:34,200 hear from them in a minute there is many that needs to. 18 00:00:34,200 --> 00:00:35,700 there is many that needs to. Much has already been done. We 19 00:00:35,700 --> 00:00:37,567 Much has already been done. We need to be seen whether it is 20 00:00:37,567 --> 00:00:41,900 need to be seen whether it is actually a people I’m here 21 00:00:41,900 --> 00:00:43,800 actually a people I’m here delighted to also welcome the 22 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:44,600 delighted to also welcome the vice President of the 23 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:46,100 vice President of the investment Bank. Andrew 24 00:00:46,100 --> 00:00:47,700 investment Bank. Andrew Mcdowell Vice President and 25 00:00:47,700 --> 00:00:49,866 Mcdowell Vice President and welcome I will give you the 26 00:00:49,866 --> 00:00:51,466 welcome I will give you the minute the floor in a minute, 27 00:00:51,466 --> 00:00:52,866 minute the floor in a minute, but before that, let me just 28 00:00:52,866 --> 00:00:55,200 but before that, let me just say just a few thoughts on on 29 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:57,666 say just a few thoughts on on our perception of what of what 30 00:00:57,666 --> 00:00:59,200 our perception of what of what is discover 19 has raised in 31 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:01,635 is discover 19 has raised in terms of policy interventions a 32 00:01:01,635 --> 00:01:03,002 terms of policy interventions a topic that I think is a 33 00:01:03,002 --> 00:01:03,668 topic that I think is a crucially important and we’re 34 00:01:03,668 --> 00:01:05,601 crucially important and we’re gonna hear from it in today’s 35 00:01:05,601 --> 00:01:07,402 gonna hear from it in today’s panels more later when we 36 00:01:07,402 --> 00:01:11,935 panels more later when we discuss. Ofity itself, but also 37 00:01:11,935 --> 00:01:13,535 discuss. Ofity itself, but also when we look at the macro as 38 00:01:13,535 --> 00:01:15,534 when we look at the macro as well as the micro ways to 39 00:01:15,534 --> 00:01:17,935 well as the micro ways to understanding conditionality an 40 00:01:17,935 --> 00:01:20,067 understanding conditionality an important part is gonna be 41 00:01:20,067 --> 00:01:22,800 important part is gonna be uncertainty. A lot of what we 42 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:24,067 uncertainty. A lot of what we need to design a lot of the 43 00:01:24,067 --> 00:01:25,302 need to design a lot of the policy measures that we have 44 00:01:25,302 --> 00:01:26,468 policy measures that we have taken in the past three months, 45 00:01:26,468 --> 00:01:28,101 taken in the past three months, but also that we have to take 46 00:01:28,101 --> 00:01:29,603 but also that we have to take in the course of the next year 47 00:01:29,603 --> 00:01:31,669 in the course of the next year or so you know we can declare 48 00:01:31,669 --> 00:01:33,567 or so you know we can declare victory against the epidemic 49 00:01:33,567 --> 00:01:36,201 victory against the epidemic are basically have to be taken 50 00:01:36,201 --> 00:01:37,535 are basically have to be taken basically in the dark A lot of 51 00:01:37,535 --> 00:01:39,768 basically in the dark A lot of the Unc. We have in terms of 52 00:01:39,768 --> 00:01:42,167 the Unc. We have in terms of the economy and the impact will 53 00:01:42,167 --> 00:01:43,334 the economy and the impact will imply that we don’t really know 54 00:01:43,334 --> 00:01:44,268 imply that we don’t really know what the new normal will look 55 00:01:44,268 --> 00:01:46,168 what the new normal will look like or indeed what the size of 56 00:01:46,168 --> 00:01:47,701 like or indeed what the size of the shock is going to be so all 57 00:01:47,701 --> 00:01:49,134 the shock is going to be so all the more important, what is 58 00:01:49,134 --> 00:01:50,735 the more important, what is absolutely crucial to try at 59 00:01:50,735 --> 00:01:53,368 absolutely crucial to try at least attempt at to understand 60 00:01:53,368 --> 00:01:54,735 least attempt at to understand the impact of the policy is 61 00:01:54,735 --> 00:01:57,268 the impact of the policy is that we’re put in place how to 62 00:01:57,268 --> 00:01:58,467 that we’re put in place how to design policy at the 63 00:01:58,467 --> 00:02:00,268 design policy at the uncertainty and you know what 64 00:02:00,268 --> 00:02:02,135 uncertainty and you know what kind of events do we have to 65 00:02:02,135 --> 00:02:03,802 kind of events do we have to cater for are we catering for a 66 00:02:03,802 --> 00:02:05,968 cater for are we catering for a 10 percent reduction of GDP 67 00:02:05,968 --> 00:02:07,635 10 percent reduction of GDP globally, or are we catering 68 00:02:07,635 --> 00:02:09,734 globally, or are we catering for? Percent reduction in none 69 00:02:09,734 --> 00:02:12,268 for? Percent reduction in none of us has the answers all the 70 00:02:12,268 --> 00:02:13,835 of us has the answers all the European institutions are 71 00:02:13,835 --> 00:02:15,534 European institutions are forecasting European The 72 00:02:15,534 --> 00:02:17,168 forecasting European The institutions are forecasting 73 00:02:17,168 --> 00:02:19,701 institutions are forecasting and casting again a very sharp 74 00:02:19,701 --> 00:02:21,203 and casting again a very sharp reduction in global output, but 75 00:02:21,203 --> 00:02:22,635 reduction in global output, but all of them are saying that you 76 00:02:22,635 --> 00:02:24,234 all of them are saying that you know nobody knows how big the 77 00:02:24,234 --> 00:02:26,567 know nobody knows how big the shock is going to be and you 78 00:02:26,567 --> 00:02:27,802 shock is going to be and you know not alone in a year from 79 00:02:27,802 --> 00:02:29,501 know not alone in a year from now, but even in a couple of 80 00:02:29,501 --> 00:02:30,836 now, but even in a couple of months from now, we don’t know 81 00:02:30,836 --> 00:02:32,267 months from now, we don’t know what we’re gonna be a lot will 82 00:02:32,267 --> 00:02:33,936 what we’re gonna be a lot will depend on the numbers on the 83 00:02:33,936 --> 00:02:35,969 depend on the numbers on the second waves that way possible 84 00:02:35,969 --> 00:02:37,900 second waves that way possible and in our ability of the. To 85 00:02:37,900 --> 00:02:40,801 and in our ability of the. To be sustained with current 86 00:02:40,801 --> 00:02:44,367 be sustained with current measures so. We’ve got let me 87 00:02:44,367 --> 00:02:45,634 measures so. We’ve got let me turn to you. Vice President 88 00:02:45,634 --> 00:02:47,968 turn to you. Vice President Andrew If I may ask you to give 89 00:02:47,968 --> 00:02:51,001 Andrew If I may ask you to give us your initial thoughts on you 90 00:02:51,001 --> 00:02:53,168 us your initial thoughts on you know on your role as a European 91 00:02:53,168 --> 00:02:54,569 know on your role as a European Investment Bank in terms of 92 00:02:54,569 --> 00:02:57,234 Investment Bank in terms of supporting the recovery if I’m 93 00:02:57,234 --> 00:02:59,568 supporting the recovery if I’m a call this way but also 94 00:02:59,568 --> 00:03:01,268 a call this way but also supporting growth in not only 95 00:03:01,268 --> 00:03:02,567 supporting growth in not only in the media, but also in the 96 00:03:02,567 --> 00:03:06,134 in the media, but also in the medium to long term Andrea over 97 00:03:06,134 --> 00:03:08,235 medium to long term Andrea over to you. Thank you Maria. Can 98 00:03:08,235 --> 00:03:10,469 to you. Thank you Maria. Can you can you hear me? Okay? Yes 99 00:03:10,469 --> 00:03:11,967 you can you hear me? Okay? Yes wonderful. Well. Thank you. 100 00:03:11,967 --> 00:03:14,568 wonderful. Well. Thank you. Maria. And thank you to your 101 00:03:14,568 --> 00:03:16,601 Maria. And thank you to your colleagues kass and all your 102 00:03:16,601 --> 00:03:18,335 colleagues kass and all your colleagues at Frugal for 103 00:03:18,335 --> 00:03:20,068 colleagues at Frugal for organizing and hosting today’s 104 00:03:20,068 --> 00:03:22,467 organizing and hosting today’s event as well as to my own 105 00:03:22,467 --> 00:03:25,134 event as well as to my own College. Deborah Revo dala in a 106 00:03:25,134 --> 00:03:27,068 College. Deborah Revo dala in a phantom Mandi a-b site for the 107 00:03:27,068 --> 00:03:28,735 phantom Mandi a-b site for the Organization. We’ve always very 108 00:03:28,735 --> 00:03:30,368 Organization. We’ve always very much enjoyed working with. 109 00:03:30,368 --> 00:03:33,701 much enjoyed working with. We’re very much. obviously the 110 00:03:33,701 --> 00:03:35,201 We’re very much. obviously the your ability to bring a very 111 00:03:35,201 --> 00:03:38,469 your ability to bring a very diverse group of academics 112 00:03:38,469 --> 00:03:40,735 diverse group of academics policy makers experts and 113 00:03:40,735 --> 00:03:42,100 policy makers experts and market participants from the 114 00:03:42,100 --> 00:03:43,535 market participants from the public and private sector 115 00:03:43,535 --> 00:03:45,568 public and private sector institutions around one well. 116 00:03:45,568 --> 00:03:48,202 institutions around one well. Virtual table in the current 117 00:03:48,202 --> 00:03:51,700 Virtual table in the current circumstances. I mean the 118 00:03:51,700 --> 00:03:53,135 circumstances. I mean the global crisis is obviously 119 00:03:53,135 --> 00:03:54,735 global crisis is obviously that’s been triggered by over 120 00:03:54,735 --> 00:03:57,234 that’s been triggered by over 19 as you say, makes it more 121 00:03:57,234 --> 00:04:00,268 19 as you say, makes it more important than ever to examine 122 00:04:00,268 --> 00:04:01,401 important than ever to examine and indeed for us to 123 00:04:01,401 --> 00:04:03,268 and indeed for us to demonstrate the additional and 124 00:04:03,268 --> 00:04:05,702 demonstrate the additional and impact of of the policy 125 00:04:05,702 --> 00:04:07,335 impact of of the policy interventions and this is 126 00:04:07,335 --> 00:04:09,834 interventions and this is particularly the case. when 127 00:04:09,834 --> 00:04:11,536 particularly the case. when public funds are deployed 128 00:04:11,536 --> 00:04:13,201 public funds are deployed through public financing 129 00:04:13,201 --> 00:04:14,869 through public financing institutions like the IB and I 130 00:04:14,869 --> 00:04:17,035 institutions like the IB and I say, particularly. The case 131 00:04:17,035 --> 00:04:19,568 say, particularly. The case because I think when you 132 00:04:19,568 --> 00:04:21,601 because I think when you operate alongside commercial 133 00:04:21,601 --> 00:04:24,401 operate alongside commercial players in markets for and 134 00:04:24,401 --> 00:04:26,835 players in markets for and finance and relationship advice 135 00:04:26,835 --> 00:04:27,768 finance and relationship advice advisory supports so in other 136 00:04:27,768 --> 00:04:29,335 advisory supports so in other words, when there’s a kind of 137 00:04:29,335 --> 00:04:30,703 words, when there’s a kind of functioning markers, there’s a 138 00:04:30,703 --> 00:04:31,668 functioning markers, there’s a particular element to 139 00:04:31,668 --> 00:04:33,201 particular element to demonstrate that you’re making 140 00:04:33,201 --> 00:04:34,769 demonstrate that you’re making an impact with the with scarce 141 00:04:34,769 --> 00:04:37,202 an impact with the with scarce public resources. as we know 142 00:04:37,202 --> 00:04:38,935 public resources. as we know funding is more scarce than 143 00:04:38,935 --> 00:04:40,269 funding is more scarce than ever and the needs are greater 144 00:04:40,269 --> 00:04:41,768 ever and the needs are greater than ever and these 145 00:04:41,768 --> 00:04:42,768 than ever and these circumstances, the radio is a 146 00:04:42,768 --> 00:04:45,335 circumstances, the radio is a great privilege and for 147 00:04:45,335 --> 00:04:46,001 great privilege and for institutions like the a-b and 148 00:04:46,001 --> 00:04:48,134 institutions like the a-b and an even greater responsibility 149 00:04:48,134 --> 00:04:50,569 an even greater responsibility to be asked to de. Public 150 00:04:50,569 --> 00:04:52,535 to be asked to de. Public resources to mitigate the 151 00:04:52,535 --> 00:04:53,834 resources to mitigate the crisis to the greatest extent 152 00:04:53,834 --> 00:04:55,135 crisis to the greatest extent possible as well as to bring 153 00:04:55,135 --> 00:04:57,068 possible as well as to bring about a sustainable recovery. 154 00:04:57,068 --> 00:04:59,234 about a sustainable recovery. so as you may know you member 155 00:04:59,234 --> 00:05:01,501 so as you may know you member States, for example, recently 156 00:05:01,501 --> 00:05:04,101 States, for example, recently agreed to guarantee of up to 25 157 00:05:04,101 --> 00:05:07,468 agreed to guarantee of up to 25 billion to the IB to try and 158 00:05:07,468 --> 00:05:09,234 billion to the IB to try and help us mobilize up to 200 159 00:05:09,234 --> 00:05:11,434 help us mobilize up to 200 billion in 19 crisis financing 160 00:05:11,434 --> 00:05:13,735 billion in 19 crisis financing Recipes The Commission is now 161 00:05:13,735 --> 00:05:16,368 Recipes The Commission is now proposing guarantees and this 162 00:05:16,368 --> 00:05:17,668 proposing guarantees and this hasn’t been fully well 163 00:05:17,668 --> 00:05:18,768 hasn’t been fully well appreciated in the love of the 164 00:05:18,768 --> 00:05:20,135 appreciated in the love of the the discussion about the 165 00:05:20,135 --> 00:05:21,234 the discussion about the recovery plan, but then I 166 00:05:21,234 --> 00:05:23,168 recovery plan, but then I proposing guarantees all over 167 00:05:23,168 --> 00:05:24,268 proposing guarantees all over a hundred and 20 billion from 168 00:05:24,268 --> 00:05:27,402 a hundred and 20 billion from the enlarged. Budgets that 169 00:05:27,402 --> 00:05:29,368 the enlarged. Budgets that would allow you to mobilize 170 00:05:29,368 --> 00:05:30,635 would allow you to mobilize well over one trillion in 171 00:05:30,635 --> 00:05:32,169 well over one trillion in recovery related financing both 172 00:05:32,169 --> 00:05:34,568 recovery related financing both inside and outside of Europe 173 00:05:34,568 --> 00:05:37,401 inside and outside of Europe these mandates may the subject 174 00:05:37,401 --> 00:05:38,902 these mandates may the subject to negotiation also be 175 00:05:38,902 --> 00:05:40,101 to negotiation also be accompanied by a capital 176 00:05:40,101 --> 00:05:41,601 accompanied by a capital increase for the Bank and for 177 00:05:41,601 --> 00:05:43,403 increase for the Bank and for our subsidiary of the European 178 00:05:43,403 --> 00:05:45,735 our subsidiary of the European Investment Fund and we’ll be 179 00:05:45,735 --> 00:05:47,500 Investment Fund and we’ll be deployed within with within the 180 00:05:47,500 --> 00:05:49,634 deployed within with within the usual comfort blanket. If you 181 00:05:49,634 --> 00:05:52,068 usual comfort blanket. If you like of our tax and legal 182 00:05:52,068 --> 00:05:53,101 like of our tax and legal privileges, these are the 183 00:05:53,101 --> 00:05:54,869 privileges, these are the private sector players now, Oh, 184 00:05:54,869 --> 00:05:57,735 private sector players now, Oh, I say this because. Of this of 185 00:05:57,735 --> 00:05:59,900 I say this because. Of this of this question, which is at the 186 00:05:59,900 --> 00:06:01,502 this question, which is at the time of growing public debt and 187 00:06:01,502 --> 00:06:03,568 time of growing public debt and deficits, I should public 188 00:06:03,568 --> 00:06:04,269 deficits, I should public authorities use taxpayer 189 00:06:04,269 --> 00:06:06,767 authorities use taxpayer resources to give us these 190 00:06:06,767 --> 00:06:08,069 resources to give us these these mandates and capital 191 00:06:08,069 --> 00:06:09,969 these mandates and capital injections There is to state 192 00:06:09,969 --> 00:06:13,300 injections There is to state the obvious rarely a financial 193 00:06:13,300 --> 00:06:15,568 the obvious rarely a financial return for the public sector, 194 00:06:15,568 --> 00:06:17,801 return for the public sector, so clearly the return expected 195 00:06:17,801 --> 00:06:20,168 so clearly the return expected by policy makers is economic 196 00:06:20,168 --> 00:06:21,968 by policy makers is economic and social. in other words, our 197 00:06:21,968 --> 00:06:24,101 and social. in other words, our owners and mandates expect us 198 00:06:24,101 --> 00:06:26,935 owners and mandates expect us to use their capital to deliver 199 00:06:26,935 --> 00:06:29,335 to use their capital to deliver social. Environmental and 200 00:06:29,335 --> 00:06:30,335 social. Environmental and economic impacts that would not 201 00:06:30,335 --> 00:06:32,468 economic impacts that would not be delivered by profit driven 202 00:06:32,468 --> 00:06:34,469 be delivered by profit driven market actors alone This of 203 00:06:34,469 --> 00:06:36,869 market actors alone This of course is as you know Maria 204 00:06:36,869 --> 00:06:38,268 course is as you know Maria Business textbook public 205 00:06:38,268 --> 00:06:40,535 Business textbook public finance it’s not controversial 206 00:06:40,535 --> 00:06:41,402 finance it’s not controversial theory. But of course, this 207 00:06:41,402 --> 00:06:43,035 theory. But of course, this leads to a more difficult 208 00:06:43,035 --> 00:06:44,767 leads to a more difficult question and practice, which is 209 00:06:44,767 --> 00:06:47,869 question and practice, which is how do we set up the exx on to 210 00:06:47,869 --> 00:06:49,101 how do we set up the exx on to your approval and expose 211 00:06:49,101 --> 00:06:51,501 your approval and expose reporting frameworks that are 212 00:06:51,501 --> 00:06:53,103 reporting frameworks that are needed to maintain the 213 00:06:53,103 --> 00:06:55,267 needed to maintain the confidence of our owners 214 00:06:55,267 --> 00:06:56,703 confidence of our owners mandate tours and wider 215 00:06:56,703 --> 00:06:57,634 mandate tours and wider stakeholders that they are in 216 00:06:57,634 --> 00:06:59,835 stakeholders that they are in fact, making a good investment 217 00:06:59,835 --> 00:07:01,735 fact, making a good investment in trying. Answer this 218 00:07:01,735 --> 00:07:02,435 in trying. Answer this question. I have to say I’m 219 00:07:02,435 --> 00:07:04,601 question. I have to say I’m really delighted to be joined 220 00:07:04,601 --> 00:07:07,235 really delighted to be joined by Hans Peters from the IIC by 221 00:07:07,235 --> 00:07:09,134 by Hans Peters from the IIC by Matta Raman from a BRT as well 222 00:07:09,134 --> 00:07:10,135 Matta Raman from a BRT as well as colleagues from the World 223 00:07:10,135 --> 00:07:12,435 as colleagues from the World Bank and ECB and I have to say 224 00:07:12,435 --> 00:07:13,968 Bank and ECB and I have to say that the work we’ve done in 225 00:07:13,968 --> 00:07:15,603 that the work we’ve done in this area at the IP in recent 226 00:07:15,603 --> 00:07:17,935 this area at the IP in recent years has been very much shaped 227 00:07:17,935 --> 00:07:19,568 years has been very much shaped by the insights we’ve gleaned 228 00:07:19,568 --> 00:07:21,935 by the insights we’ve gleaned from the I F C and E B R D, in 229 00:07:21,935 --> 00:07:22,568 from the I F C and E B R D, in particular, and I’m very 230 00:07:22,568 --> 00:07:24,202 particular, and I’m very grateful for the strong 231 00:07:24,202 --> 00:07:25,601 grateful for the strong cooperation we have with them 232 00:07:25,601 --> 00:07:28,868 cooperation we have with them My colleagues. from the IB 233 00:07:28,868 --> 00:07:30,268 My colleagues. from the IB economics departments and 234 00:07:30,268 --> 00:07:32,269 economics departments and howser is from the I F was 235 00:07:32,269 --> 00:07:34,635 howser is from the I F was speaking in the later. About IV 236 00:07:34,635 --> 00:07:35,335 speaking in the later. About IV group developments on 237 00:07:35,335 --> 00:07:37,201 group developments on measurements and reporting of 238 00:07:37,201 --> 00:07:39,268 measurements and reporting of impact both micro and macro 239 00:07:39,268 --> 00:07:41,335 impact both micro and macro micro the topic I just want to 240 00:07:41,335 --> 00:07:43,367 micro the topic I just want to discuss a few minutes is 241 00:07:43,367 --> 00:07:46,001 discuss a few minutes is additional and by additional I 242 00:07:46,001 --> 00:07:48,402 additional and by additional I mean that the interventions by 243 00:07:48,402 --> 00:07:49,934 mean that the interventions by financing institutions public 244 00:07:49,934 --> 00:07:52,201 financing institutions public financing institutions like EIB 245 00:07:52,201 --> 00:07:53,803 financing institutions like EIB should lead to something 246 00:07:53,803 --> 00:07:55,335 should lead to something socially valuable happening 247 00:07:55,335 --> 00:07:57,201 socially valuable happening that would rather not wise not 248 00:07:57,201 --> 00:07:58,868 that would rather not wise not happen or at least to the same 249 00:07:58,868 --> 00:08:01,101 happen or at least to the same extent and it should complement 250 00:08:01,101 --> 00:08:02,535 extent and it should complement sources of financing from other 251 00:08:02,535 --> 00:08:05,634 sources of financing from other sources now, like like. IFC and 252 00:08:05,634 --> 00:08:08,135 sources now, like like. IFC and A-b RD and most other II 253 00:08:08,135 --> 00:08:08,735 A-b RD and most other II international financing 254 00:08:08,735 --> 00:08:10,101 international financing institutions. This analogy is 255 00:08:10,101 --> 00:08:12,635 institutions. This analogy is long been recognized as an 256 00:08:12,635 --> 00:08:15,102 long been recognized as an important concept for a-b even 257 00:08:15,102 --> 00:08:16,669 important concept for a-b even before the form of framework 258 00:08:16,669 --> 00:08:18,335 before the form of framework was developed, It was already 259 00:08:18,335 --> 00:08:21,735 was developed, It was already hinted at in our original 1950 260 00:08:21,735 --> 00:08:23,167 hinted at in our original 1950 - eight statutes which call 261 00:08:23,167 --> 00:08:26,268 - eight statutes which call upon the Bank and I quote to 262 00:08:26,268 --> 00:08:28,168 upon the Bank and I quote to Grant finance to the extent of 263 00:08:28,168 --> 00:08:29,502 Grant finance to the extent of funds are not available from 264 00:08:29,502 --> 00:08:31,503 funds are not available from other sources on reasonable 265 00:08:31,503 --> 00:08:32,934 other sources on reasonable terms and the statues to go on 266 00:08:32,934 --> 00:08:36,102 terms and the statues to go on to prescribe that as far Loan 267 00:08:36,102 --> 00:08:37,468 to prescribe that as far Loan shall only be granted on 268 00:08:37,468 --> 00:08:38,768 shall only be granted on condition that other sources of 269 00:08:38,768 --> 00:08:40,735 condition that other sources of finance are also used so while 270 00:08:40,735 --> 00:08:42,635 finance are also used so while the term additional was not 271 00:08:42,635 --> 00:08:45,102 the term additional was not used by then the intent is 272 00:08:45,102 --> 00:08:47,435 used by then the intent is still clear. I should say for 273 00:08:47,435 --> 00:08:48,967 still clear. I should say for VIP, it’s important to 274 00:08:48,967 --> 00:08:49,935 VIP, it’s important to distinguish between the 275 00:08:49,935 --> 00:08:52,668 distinguish between the concepts of additional and 276 00:08:52,668 --> 00:08:55,135 concepts of additional and eligibility now the EI B’s 277 00:08:55,135 --> 00:08:56,368 eligibility now the EI B’s eligibility criteria in other 278 00:08:56,368 --> 00:08:57,768 eligibility criteria in other words what projects we have 279 00:08:57,768 --> 00:09:00,366 words what projects we have finance are also drawn from our 280 00:09:00,366 --> 00:09:01,767 finance are also drawn from our statutes and our drone from 281 00:09:01,767 --> 00:09:03,400 statutes and our drone from well-defined EU public policy 282 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:04,501 well-defined EU public policy goals at the end of the day. 283 00:09:04,501 --> 00:09:07,166 goals at the end of the day. Our mission is to finance. That 284 00:09:07,166 --> 00:09:09,901 Our mission is to finance. That supports you policy goals like 285 00:09:09,901 --> 00:09:13,101 supports you policy goals like innovation Infrastructure, SMEs 286 00:09:13,101 --> 00:09:14,066 innovation Infrastructure, SMEs environment, climate action and 287 00:09:14,066 --> 00:09:15,798 environment, climate action and coalition. So, for example, 288 00:09:15,798 --> 00:09:17,033 coalition. So, for example, we’re allowed finance renewable 289 00:09:17,033 --> 00:09:18,833 we’re allowed finance renewable energy, but we’re not allowed 290 00:09:18,833 --> 00:09:19,833 energy, but we’re not allowed finance also feel that energy 291 00:09:19,833 --> 00:09:22,133 finance also feel that energy projects so our initial 292 00:09:22,133 --> 00:09:23,667 projects so our initial assessment of every project, 293 00:09:23,667 --> 00:09:26,166 assessment of every project, Wein must confirm it’s 294 00:09:26,166 --> 00:09:27,633 Wein must confirm it’s eligibility, but it’s 295 00:09:27,633 --> 00:09:29,799 eligibility, but it’s allocation to one or several of 296 00:09:29,799 --> 00:09:31,199 allocation to one or several of these public policy goals, but 297 00:09:31,199 --> 00:09:32,833 these public policy goals, but to show we’re making a 298 00:09:32,833 --> 00:09:34,367 to show we’re making a contribution to the U. policy 299 00:09:34,367 --> 00:09:37,767 contribution to the U. policy goals confirming the El. Of our 300 00:09:37,767 --> 00:09:39,201 goals confirming the El. Of our projects is not enough, We also 301 00:09:39,201 --> 00:09:40,798 projects is not enough, We also need to demonstrate to to our 302 00:09:40,798 --> 00:09:42,232 need to demonstrate to to our shareholders and wider 303 00:09:42,232 --> 00:09:44,367 shareholders and wider stakeholders. the additional of 304 00:09:44,367 --> 00:09:46,367 stakeholders. the additional of our involvement and the test of 305 00:09:46,367 --> 00:09:48,266 our involvement and the test of additional is whether the 306 00:09:48,266 --> 00:09:50,433 additional is whether the intervention by the Bank 307 00:09:50,433 --> 00:09:53,033 intervention by the Bank facilitates and or strengthens 308 00:09:53,033 --> 00:09:54,366 facilitates and or strengthens and eligible projects. So is 309 00:09:54,366 --> 00:09:57,533 and eligible projects. So is the project done faster is a 310 00:09:57,533 --> 00:09:59,200 the project done faster is a better design. Is it more 311 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:00,833 better design. Is it more resilient? Is it more impactful 312 00:10:00,833 --> 00:10:03,466 resilient? Is it more impactful as a result of our intervention 313 00:10:03,466 --> 00:10:04,667 as a result of our intervention and support for that project 314 00:10:04,667 --> 00:10:07,533 and support for that project now in 20. The management 315 00:10:07,533 --> 00:10:08,700 now in 20. The management Committee of VIP decided to 316 00:10:08,700 --> 00:10:11,633 Committee of VIP decided to begin a serious work program to 317 00:10:11,633 --> 00:10:13,833 begin a serious work program to update formalize and strengthen 318 00:10:13,833 --> 00:10:15,866 update formalize and strengthen our additional as well as our 319 00:10:15,866 --> 00:10:18,367 our additional as well as our impact reporting framework and 320 00:10:18,367 --> 00:10:19,833 impact reporting framework and now why was this? why did we 321 00:10:19,833 --> 00:10:21,667 now why was this? why did we decide to invest a lot of 322 00:10:21,667 --> 00:10:22,766 decide to invest a lot of resources the last eight months 323 00:10:22,766 --> 00:10:23,967 resources the last eight months in this area over the last two 324 00:10:23,967 --> 00:10:26,233 in this area over the last two years? Well, first you the 325 00:10:26,233 --> 00:10:27,566 years? Well, first you the answer is I mean the truth be 326 00:10:27,566 --> 00:10:29,700 answer is I mean the truth be told we need to end some 327 00:10:29,700 --> 00:10:31,766 told we need to end some confusion and inconsistency 328 00:10:31,766 --> 00:10:32,766 confusion and inconsistency about this concept of 329 00:10:32,766 --> 00:10:34,366 about this concept of spirituality within VIP, both 330 00:10:34,366 --> 00:10:38,233 spirituality within VIP, both internally and externally. One 331 00:10:38,233 --> 00:10:39,667 internally and externally. One of the reasons for this was 332 00:10:39,667 --> 00:10:42,667 of the reasons for this was confusion was since 2015. E a-b 333 00:10:42,667 --> 00:10:44,467 confusion was since 2015. E a-b operations under the F C 334 00:10:44,467 --> 00:10:46,200 operations under the F C mandate the so called younger 335 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,633 mandate the so called younger plan of the last seven years. 336 00:10:48,633 --> 00:10:50,633 plan of the last seven years. We’re required to show specific 337 00:10:50,633 --> 00:10:53,033 We’re required to show specific markers of additional allergy 338 00:10:53,033 --> 00:10:55,033 markers of additional allergy and a specific cold. Additional 339 00:10:55,033 --> 00:10:56,500 and a specific cold. Additional beyond the traditional 340 00:10:56,500 --> 00:10:58,366 beyond the traditional value-added framework required 341 00:10:58,366 --> 00:11:00,533 value-added framework required a standard DIP operations, 342 00:11:00,533 --> 00:11:03,033 a standard DIP operations, notably evidence of high risk 343 00:11:03,033 --> 00:11:05,099 notably evidence of high risk and evidence of market failure 344 00:11:05,099 --> 00:11:06,366 and evidence of market failure needing to sub optimal 345 00:11:06,366 --> 00:11:07,900 needing to sub optimal investment situations. Now 346 00:11:07,900 --> 00:11:09,766 investment situations. Now this. Over the last few years 347 00:11:09,766 --> 00:11:11,366 this. Over the last few years to debate within the Bank as to 348 00:11:11,366 --> 00:11:13,767 to debate within the Bank as to where at the same concepts of 349 00:11:13,767 --> 00:11:15,432 where at the same concepts of nationality should or should 350 00:11:15,432 --> 00:11:18,100 nationality should or should not be applied to all other IV 351 00:11:18,100 --> 00:11:20,165 not be applied to all other IV operations and it became 352 00:11:20,165 --> 00:11:21,033 operations and it became increasingly evident that we 353 00:11:21,033 --> 00:11:23,099 increasingly evident that we needed to provide our teams 354 00:11:23,099 --> 00:11:24,533 needed to provide our teams clearer guidance on the 355 00:11:24,533 --> 00:11:27,466 clearer guidance on the definition and applicability. 356 00:11:27,466 --> 00:11:28,767 definition and applicability. of additional for all of our 357 00:11:28,767 --> 00:11:31,367 of additional for all of our projects. Secondly, over the 358 00:11:31,367 --> 00:11:34,266 projects. Secondly, over the same period of time the nature 359 00:11:34,266 --> 00:11:36,833 same period of time the nature of additional from the IP and I 360 00:11:36,833 --> 00:11:38,199 of additional from the IP and I suspect from from other Ipa, I 361 00:11:38,199 --> 00:11:42,034 suspect from from other Ipa, I is has been changing financial. 362 00:11:42,034 --> 00:11:43,033 is has been changing financial. In other words the difference 363 00:11:43,033 --> 00:11:44,633 In other words the difference between our interest rates and 364 00:11:44,633 --> 00:11:46,366 between our interest rates and market interest rates had long 365 00:11:46,366 --> 00:11:48,667 market interest rates had long been at the heart of our own 366 00:11:48,667 --> 00:11:49,366 been at the heart of our own understanding of how we support 367 00:11:49,366 --> 00:11:51,700 understanding of how we support the projects, but with interest 368 00:11:51,700 --> 00:11:53,366 the projects, but with interest rates so compressed in recent 369 00:11:53,366 --> 00:11:54,700 rates so compressed in recent years, particularly in the 370 00:11:54,700 --> 00:11:56,766 years, particularly in the zone, We really needed to 371 00:11:56,766 --> 00:11:59,667 zone, We really needed to develop measure and articulate 372 00:11:59,667 --> 00:12:02,199 develop measure and articulate new sources of value from EIB 373 00:12:02,199 --> 00:12:05,301 new sources of value from EIB involvement in projects thirdly 374 00:12:05,301 --> 00:12:06,766 involvement in projects thirdly and to be absolutely 375 00:12:06,766 --> 00:12:08,767 and to be absolutely transparent complaints about 376 00:12:08,767 --> 00:12:10,199 transparent complaints about the EAP crowding out of 377 00:12:10,199 --> 00:12:11,833 the EAP crowding out of commercial banks while still 378 00:12:11,833 --> 00:12:14,366 commercial banks while still very. Have prompted our board 379 00:12:14,366 --> 00:12:16,233 very. Have prompted our board of directors and other 380 00:12:16,233 --> 00:12:17,033 of directors and other stakeholders to ask for 381 00:12:17,033 --> 00:12:20,166 stakeholders to ask for stronger. publicly available 382 00:12:20,166 --> 00:12:21,701 stronger. publicly available and easy to understand 383 00:12:21,701 --> 00:12:23,133 and easy to understand explanations as to how our 384 00:12:23,133 --> 00:12:24,766 explanations as to how our financing, adds value, 385 00:12:24,766 --> 00:12:26,266 financing, adds value, particularly in well banked 386 00:12:26,266 --> 00:12:28,799 particularly in well banked European markets. Finally, I 387 00:12:28,799 --> 00:12:29,998 European markets. Finally, I think, and this is probably 388 00:12:29,998 --> 00:12:32,233 think, and this is probably most importantly a framework 389 00:12:32,233 --> 00:12:33,566 most importantly a framework for demonstrating additional 390 00:12:33,566 --> 00:12:36,100 for demonstrating additional and impact is in the long run 391 00:12:36,100 --> 00:12:37,832 and impact is in the long run vital for our social license 392 00:12:37,832 --> 00:12:40,199 vital for our social license and political legitimacy. the 393 00:12:40,199 --> 00:12:42,867 and political legitimacy. the eyes of our owners the more. 394 00:12:42,867 --> 00:12:44,467 eyes of our owners the more. Interested flip side of this 395 00:12:44,467 --> 00:12:45,733 Interested flip side of this statement is that it is that 396 00:12:45,733 --> 00:12:48,100 statement is that it is that the best in class and impact 397 00:12:48,100 --> 00:12:50,034 the best in class and impact framework, it’s becoming an 398 00:12:50,034 --> 00:12:51,567 framework, it’s becoming an increasingly important source 399 00:12:51,567 --> 00:12:53,200 increasingly important source of competitive advantage in the 400 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:54,900 of competitive advantage in the attraction of public capital 401 00:12:54,900 --> 00:12:56,200 attraction of public capital and third party mandates for 402 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:59,000 and third party mandates for the IB now since 2018, I’ve had 403 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:00,199 the IB now since 2018, I’ve had the privilege of leading the 404 00:13:00,199 --> 00:13:02,165 the privilege of leading the bank’s efforts to strengthen 405 00:13:02,165 --> 00:13:03,733 bank’s efforts to strengthen our additional and impacts 406 00:13:03,733 --> 00:13:05,133 our additional and impacts reporting framework and that 407 00:13:05,133 --> 00:13:06,767 reporting framework and that led to the adoption last year 408 00:13:06,767 --> 00:13:08,367 led to the adoption last year last December often new 409 00:13:08,367 --> 00:13:10,300 last December often new framework by our board of 410 00:13:10,300 --> 00:13:11,066 framework by our board of directors, which were piloting 411 00:13:11,066 --> 00:13:12,367 directors, which were piloting this year with the view to 412 00:13:12,367 --> 00:13:16,600 this year with the view to full. In 2021, now my colleague 413 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:18,466 full. In 2021, now my colleague Nikola Pacino is one of the 414 00:13:18,466 --> 00:13:19,634 Nikola Pacino is one of the architects of the new framework 415 00:13:19,634 --> 00:13:21,300 architects of the new framework is going to set. I think in the 416 00:13:21,300 --> 00:13:22,667 is going to set. I think in the next session in more detail, 417 00:13:22,667 --> 00:13:24,366 next session in more detail, some of the aspects of this 418 00:13:24,366 --> 00:13:25,233 some of the aspects of this edition allergy framework, but 419 00:13:25,233 --> 00:13:26,766 edition allergy framework, but let me just make a few 420 00:13:26,766 --> 00:13:29,033 let me just make a few observations The framework will 421 00:13:29,033 --> 00:13:31,000 observations The framework will lead to individual projects, 422 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:33,434 lead to individual projects, scoring more strongly rooted in 423 00:13:33,434 --> 00:13:34,766 scoring more strongly rooted in commonly accepted public 424 00:13:34,766 --> 00:13:36,834 commonly accepted public finance and economic concepts 425 00:13:36,834 --> 00:13:38,766 finance and economic concepts such as market failure and 426 00:13:38,766 --> 00:13:40,400 such as market failure and indeed social benefits that let 427 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:42,834 indeed social benefits that let her being the quantification. 428 00:13:42,834 --> 00:13:44,366 her being the quantification. Difference between the economic 429 00:13:44,366 --> 00:13:46,166 Difference between the economic and financial rate of return of 430 00:13:46,166 --> 00:13:48,367 and financial rate of return of our project. Secondly, it will 431 00:13:48,367 --> 00:13:50,566 our project. Secondly, it will be more closely aligned with 432 00:13:50,566 --> 00:13:51,534 be more closely aligned with the approach to additional 433 00:13:51,534 --> 00:13:53,233 the approach to additional among other public financing. 434 00:13:53,233 --> 00:13:55,100 among other public financing. institutions institutions, but 435 00:13:55,100 --> 00:13:56,433 institutions institutions, but at the same time it takes into 436 00:13:56,433 --> 00:13:58,500 at the same time it takes into account our own specifications, 437 00:13:58,500 --> 00:13:59,967 account our own specifications, particularly to our role as a 438 00:13:59,967 --> 00:14:02,833 particularly to our role as a new institution. thirdly the 439 00:14:02,833 --> 00:14:06,132 new institution. thirdly the new framework embraces a more 440 00:14:06,132 --> 00:14:07,666 new framework embraces a more sophisticated understanding of 441 00:14:07,666 --> 00:14:09,066 sophisticated understanding of the contributions of public 442 00:14:09,066 --> 00:14:10,767 the contributions of public financing institution can bring 443 00:14:10,767 --> 00:14:13,033 financing institution can bring to a project notably to the 444 00:14:13,033 --> 00:14:15,298 to a project notably to the customer. Of our financing 445 00:14:15,298 --> 00:14:17,833 customer. Of our financing terms, as well as the signaling 446 00:14:17,833 --> 00:14:20,532 terms, as well as the signaling risk mitigation and crowding in 447 00:14:20,532 --> 00:14:22,699 risk mitigation and crowding in effects that result from market 448 00:14:22,699 --> 00:14:23,433 effects that result from market recognition of the quality of 449 00:14:23,433 --> 00:14:26,701 recognition of the quality of our financial technical and ESG 450 00:14:26,701 --> 00:14:29,132 our financial technical and ESG due diligence, the results will 451 00:14:29,132 --> 00:14:30,699 due diligence, the results will also I believe the more 452 00:14:30,699 --> 00:14:32,166 also I believe the more objective well, this is never 453 00:14:32,166 --> 00:14:34,633 objective well, this is never an exact science. and it’s also 454 00:14:34,633 --> 00:14:36,199 an exact science. and it’s also always based on professional 455 00:14:36,199 --> 00:14:37,801 always based on professional judgments. it will provide a 456 00:14:37,801 --> 00:14:40,367 judgments. it will provide a more transparent framework with 457 00:14:40,367 --> 00:14:41,866 more transparent framework with predefined raising and scoring 458 00:14:41,866 --> 00:14:43,533 predefined raising and scoring criteria that allows for 459 00:14:43,533 --> 00:14:45,567 criteria that allows for comparison and. Goes valu 460 00:14:45,567 --> 00:14:47,333 comparison and. Goes valu evaluation. It will also be 461 00:14:47,333 --> 00:14:49,567 evaluation. It will also be more transparent for the first 462 00:14:49,567 --> 00:14:52,167 more transparent for the first time we will start publishing 463 00:14:52,167 --> 00:14:54,233 time we will start publishing additional statements 464 00:14:54,233 --> 00:14:56,100 additional statements justifying EIB support for 465 00:14:56,100 --> 00:14:58,100 justifying EIB support for every single operation, 466 00:14:58,100 --> 00:14:59,533 every single operation, including how our financial and 467 00:14:59,533 --> 00:15:01,733 including how our financial and non financial contributions 468 00:15:01,733 --> 00:15:03,200 non financial contributions strengthen our facilitate the 469 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:04,767 strengthen our facilitate the projects in such a ways to 470 00:15:04,767 --> 00:15:07,100 projects in such a ways to address specifically identified 471 00:15:07,100 --> 00:15:08,733 address specifically identified market failures and indeed of 472 00:15:08,733 --> 00:15:10,367 market failures and indeed of all the changes that we have 473 00:15:10,367 --> 00:15:12,233 all the changes that we have agreed. I think this may also 474 00:15:12,233 --> 00:15:13,666 agreed. I think this may also be the most visible and it may 475 00:15:13,666 --> 00:15:16,100 be the most visible and it may be the. And impactful, 476 00:15:16,100 --> 00:15:18,100 be the. And impactful, including in terms of our own 477 00:15:18,100 --> 00:15:20,167 including in terms of our own internal culture it will 478 00:15:20,167 --> 00:15:22,233 internal culture it will finally be more consistent with 479 00:15:22,233 --> 00:15:23,633 finally be more consistent with the same additional analogy 480 00:15:23,633 --> 00:15:25,366 the same additional analogy tests being applied to all the 481 00:15:25,366 --> 00:15:27,834 tests being applied to all the IP operations with both public 482 00:15:27,834 --> 00:15:30,066 IP operations with both public and private. investment 483 00:15:30,066 --> 00:15:32,234 and private. investment promoters own risk and 484 00:15:32,234 --> 00:15:33,533 promoters own risk and operations also on mandate, and 485 00:15:33,533 --> 00:15:34,666 operations also on mandate, and this is not the case of 486 00:15:34,666 --> 00:15:37,533 this is not the case of President. I’m so I finally 487 00:15:37,533 --> 00:15:38,700 President. I’m so I finally finally it’ll provide an 488 00:15:38,700 --> 00:15:40,266 finally it’ll provide an instrument that allows the 489 00:15:40,266 --> 00:15:41,733 instrument that allows the governing bodies of the banks 490 00:15:41,733 --> 00:15:43,600 governing bodies of the banks and the management Committee of 491 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,400 and the management Committee of the Board of directors to guide 492 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:46,733 the Board of directors to guide the operations of the Bank and 493 00:15:46,733 --> 00:15:49,200 the operations of the Bank and to manage Associated 494 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:51,733 to manage Associated Trade-offs. Now one might think 495 00:15:51,733 --> 00:15:54,733 Trade-offs. Now one might think that that pursuing additional 496 00:15:54,733 --> 00:15:56,200 that that pursuing additional and impact should be the only 497 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:57,200 and impact should be the only objective of the public 498 00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,700 objective of the public financing institution. but 499 00:15:59,700 --> 00:16:01,233 financing institution. but obviously we have to manage 500 00:16:01,233 --> 00:16:03,666 obviously we have to manage that against other objectives, 501 00:16:03,666 --> 00:16:07,232 that against other objectives, geographic balance financial. 502 00:16:07,232 --> 00:16:09,067 geographic balance financial. The allocation of our projects 503 00:16:09,067 --> 00:16:10,498 The allocation of our projects to public policy goals, I try 504 00:16:10,498 --> 00:16:14,299 to public policy goals, I try that cohesion and so on with a 505 00:16:14,299 --> 00:16:16,732 that cohesion and so on with a new framework and it doesn’t at 506 00:16:16,732 --> 00:16:18,498 new framework and it doesn’t at least it allows us basically to 507 00:16:18,498 --> 00:16:19,866 least it allows us basically to make these choices in a more 508 00:16:19,866 --> 00:16:21,000 make these choices in a more transparent way and to know 509 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:23,800 transparent way and to know what we’re doing so I leave it 510 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:25,767 what we’re doing so I leave it a that Maria and I’m very much 511 00:16:25,767 --> 00:16:26,999 a that Maria and I’m very much looking forward to hearing the 512 00:16:26,999 --> 00:16:28,733 looking forward to hearing the the contributions of all the 513 00:16:28,733 --> 00:16:30,600 the contributions of all the participants today. We’re in 514 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:31,933 participants today. We’re in the process of packing this new 515 00:16:31,933 --> 00:16:34,500 the process of packing this new framework and we still are here 516 00:16:34,500 --> 00:16:37,066 framework and we still are here to learn. The nest and fine 517 00:16:37,066 --> 00:16:40,666 to learn. The nest and fine ches so so this seminar today 518 00:16:40,666 --> 00:16:43,267 ches so so this seminar today is is a perfect time for us and 519 00:16:43,267 --> 00:16:43,900 is is a perfect time for us and thank you very much again for 520 00:16:43,900 --> 00:16:45,533 thank you very much again for the invitation. Wonderful. 521 00:16:45,533 --> 00:16:47,400 the invitation. Wonderful. Thank you so much Andrea for 522 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:49,300 Thank you so much Andrea for for giving us this at least the 523 00:16:49,300 --> 00:16:50,500 for giving us this at least the introduction to the way that 524 00:16:50,500 --> 00:16:53,200 introduction to the way that the the EIB thinking is is 525 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:54,600 the the EIB thinking is is evolving and also, but I will 526 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:55,800 evolving and also, but I will look forward to hearing more 527 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:57,300 look forward to hearing more about the details of this new 528 00:16:57,300 --> 00:16:59,866 about the details of this new framework. How you see the the 529 00:16:59,866 --> 00:17:01,566 framework. How you see the the the concept of additional how 530 00:17:01,566 --> 00:17:03,500 the concept of additional how do you ensure that you know 531 00:17:03,500 --> 00:17:07,567 do you ensure that you know money is well spent I. 532 00:18:02,365 --> 00:18:04,533 I think really follows, but 533 00:18:04,533 --> 00:18:06,100 I think really follows, but Andrew has just started to 534 00:18:06,100 --> 00:18:08,633 Andrew has just started to describe about the E IDs and 535 00:18:08,633 --> 00:18:12,567 describe about the E IDs and you. this next session will be 536 00:18:12,567 --> 00:18:15,300 you. this next session will be looking at Macaroni issues and 537 00:18:15,300 --> 00:18:17,000 looking at Macaroni issues and the last one still gonna be 538 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:21,567 the last one still gonna be look at my and micro now as 539 00:18:21,567 --> 00:18:23,000 look at my and micro now as regarding the first session 540 00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:24,533 regarding the first session that I have the honor to chair 541 00:18:24,533 --> 00:18:27,400 that I have the honor to chair we have three great panelists 542 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,133 we have three great panelists today let me them in 543 00:18:30,133 --> 00:18:33,533 today let me them in alphabetical order has either. 544 00:18:33,533 --> 00:18:35,133 alphabetical order has either. From the International Finance 545 00:18:35,133 --> 00:18:39,066 From the International Finance Corporation, the Nicola from 546 00:18:39,066 --> 00:18:40,767 Corporation, the Nicola from the European Investment Bank 547 00:18:40,767 --> 00:18:44,667 the European Investment Bank and Maia Amani from the ER D. 548 00:18:44,667 --> 00:18:46,533 and Maia Amani from the ER D. now what I would suggest is 549 00:18:46,533 --> 00:18:49,167 now what I would suggest is that instead of going off of 550 00:18:49,167 --> 00:18:52,666 that instead of going off of the I would ask Nicola to come 551 00:18:52,666 --> 00:18:54,633 the I would ask Nicola to come first because Andrews started 552 00:18:54,633 --> 00:18:56,700 first because Andrews started to introduce the I B’s new 553 00:18:56,700 --> 00:18:57,967 to introduce the I B’s new framework, so I think it could 554 00:18:57,967 --> 00:19:00,866 framework, so I think it could be more even easier to follow 555 00:19:00,866 --> 00:19:02,499 be more even easier to follow if you could have would provide 556 00:19:02,499 --> 00:19:07,401 if you could have would provide food and then we will move. 557 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:40,133 The measurement of theity I I 558 00:19:40,133 --> 00:19:41,866 The measurement of theity I I actually I’m very pleased to 559 00:19:41,866 --> 00:19:43,533 actually I’m very pleased to share with you some of the 560 00:19:43,533 --> 00:19:44,566 share with you some of the reflections that we have inside 561 00:19:44,566 --> 00:19:47,133 reflections that we have inside the Bank and on this important 562 00:19:47,133 --> 00:19:49,000 the Bank and on this important matter. as Andrew said, I mean 563 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:53,366 matter. as Andrew said, I mean this is a core concept among I 564 00:19:53,366 --> 00:19:55,334 this is a core concept among I at five and although 565 00:19:55,334 --> 00:19:58,666 at five and although definitions Myer and they 566 00:19:58,666 --> 00:20:00,100 definitions Myer and they always captured this basic 567 00:20:00,100 --> 00:20:01,699 always captured this basic premise, that is that 568 00:20:01,699 --> 00:20:03,366 premise, that is that interventions by the I advise 569 00:20:03,366 --> 00:20:05,033 interventions by the I advise should contribute something 570 00:20:05,033 --> 00:20:07,099 should contribute something socially. And they will not 571 00:20:07,099 --> 00:20:09,933 socially. And they will not happen otherwise what I put in 572 00:20:09,933 --> 00:20:12,232 happen otherwise what I put in this slide, I hope everybody 573 00:20:12,232 --> 00:20:14,566 this slide, I hope everybody can see that it’s it’s a bit of 574 00:20:14,566 --> 00:20:17,832 can see that it’s it’s a bit of summary of what and you just 575 00:20:17,832 --> 00:20:20,366 summary of what and you just said That is the fact that the 576 00:20:20,366 --> 00:20:23,298 said That is the fact that the idea basically is a pro policy. 577 00:20:23,298 --> 00:20:27,199 idea basically is a pro policy. and this means that the the 578 00:20:27,199 --> 00:20:28,632 and this means that the the support of the band is supposed 579 00:20:28,632 --> 00:20:31,032 support of the band is supposed to make a tangible contribution 580 00:20:31,032 --> 00:20:32,866 to make a tangible contribution to policy objectives as we have 581 00:20:32,866 --> 00:20:34,367 to policy objectives as we have defined in our statutory 582 00:20:34,367 --> 00:20:36,600 defined in our statutory obligations. The eligibility 583 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:40,234 obligations. The eligibility ensure that our activities our 584 00:20:40,234 --> 00:20:41,767 ensure that our activities our operations for within the ramm 585 00:20:41,767 --> 00:20:45,034 operations for within the ramm of the of the Bank and they are 586 00:20:45,034 --> 00:20:48,633 of the of the Bank and they are based on on also on the number 587 00:20:48,633 --> 00:20:50,767 based on on also on the number of lending policies that have 588 00:20:50,767 --> 00:20:52,066 of lending policies that have developed internally of course 589 00:20:52,066 --> 00:20:53,866 developed internally of course on the basis of this story 590 00:20:53,866 --> 00:20:55,833 on the basis of this story obligations and it was measured 591 00:20:55,833 --> 00:20:56,633 obligations and it was measured the energy and the balls we 592 00:20:56,633 --> 00:20:57,967 the energy and the balls we have we have a transport policy 593 00:20:57,967 --> 00:20:59,567 have we have a transport policy and we have a climate strategy 594 00:20:59,567 --> 00:21:01,633 and we have a climate strategy that all help define our 595 00:21:01,633 --> 00:21:03,698 that all help define our eligibility and on the pain by 596 00:21:03,698 --> 00:21:07,066 eligibility and on the pain by these elli. Is the Bank also 597 00:21:07,066 --> 00:21:08,898 these elli. Is the Bank also contributes to for public 598 00:21:08,898 --> 00:21:10,498 contributes to for public policy goals as we report on 599 00:21:10,498 --> 00:21:12,498 policy goals as we report on those these are the 600 00:21:12,498 --> 00:21:13,999 those these are the infrastructure and environment. 601 00:21:13,999 --> 00:21:16,166 infrastructure and environment. innovation and financing of 602 00:21:16,166 --> 00:21:20,433 innovation and financing of ssss now. as it was, said the 603 00:21:20,433 --> 00:21:21,866 ssss now. as it was, said the fulfilling of of the policy 604 00:21:21,866 --> 00:21:23,132 fulfilling of of the policy role does not end with the 605 00:21:23,132 --> 00:21:24,733 role does not end with the eligibility. eligibility is not 606 00:21:24,733 --> 00:21:28,599 eligibility. eligibility is not enough. we need also to deliver 607 00:21:28,599 --> 00:21:32,366 enough. we need also to deliver additional and sorry. it’s very 608 00:21:32,366 --> 00:21:35,966 additional and sorry. it’s very sensible screen and. What does 609 00:21:35,966 --> 00:21:37,433 sensible screen and. What does it mean? I mean additional and 610 00:21:37,433 --> 00:21:40,066 it mean? I mean additional and shows that within the eligible 611 00:21:40,066 --> 00:21:42,500 shows that within the eligible activities so within our remit 612 00:21:42,500 --> 00:21:44,100 activities so within our remit our supported the end provides 613 00:21:44,100 --> 00:21:45,700 our supported the end provides tangible contributions so that 614 00:21:45,700 --> 00:21:47,834 tangible contributions so that we can make a difference. and 615 00:21:47,834 --> 00:21:49,266 we can make a difference. and of course we do this with also 616 00:21:49,266 --> 00:21:51,666 of course we do this with also the intent to contribute to 617 00:21:51,666 --> 00:21:54,300 the intent to contribute to measurable positive social 618 00:21:54,300 --> 00:21:55,833 measurable positive social economic and environmental 619 00:21:55,833 --> 00:21:58,833 economic and environmental impact, but instead of 620 00:21:58,833 --> 00:22:00,567 impact, but instead of repeating what I already said I 621 00:22:00,567 --> 00:22:02,666 repeating what I already said I would like to go maybe a bit 622 00:22:02,666 --> 00:22:04,332 would like to go maybe a bit more technically in the detail 623 00:22:04,332 --> 00:22:07,333 more technically in the detail of the what additional test 624 00:22:07,333 --> 00:22:12,300 of the what additional test represents we. Ever. broken up 625 00:22:12,300 --> 00:22:14,099 represents we. Ever. broken up the the concept of the of the 626 00:22:14,099 --> 00:22:17,799 the the concept of the of the test of the on three different 627 00:22:17,799 --> 00:22:19,832 test of the on three different questions. which represent the 628 00:22:19,832 --> 00:22:21,566 questions. which represent the three pillars on which we have 629 00:22:21,566 --> 00:22:25,233 three pillars on which we have built the entire framework the 630 00:22:25,233 --> 00:22:26,599 built the entire framework the first question the first 631 00:22:26,599 --> 00:22:30,666 first question the first condition is that the operation 632 00:22:30,666 --> 00:22:33,566 condition is that the operation that we finance should address 633 00:22:33,566 --> 00:22:35,232 that we finance should address well-defined investment gaps 634 00:22:35,232 --> 00:22:37,500 well-defined investment gaps that result from market failure 635 00:22:37,500 --> 00:22:40,599 that result from market failure this condition answers. And the 636 00:22:40,599 --> 00:22:44,132 this condition answers. And the important question of why the 637 00:22:44,132 --> 00:22:45,767 important question of why the intervention is needed, so we 638 00:22:45,767 --> 00:22:48,033 intervention is needed, so we all know that modern 639 00:22:48,033 --> 00:22:48,766 all know that modern market-based economies are 640 00:22:48,766 --> 00:22:50,066 market-based economies are built on the understanding of 641 00:22:50,066 --> 00:22:52,200 built on the understanding of the markets function properly 642 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:53,800 the markets function properly that function perfectly, but we 643 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,034 that function perfectly, but we all know that perfectly 644 00:22:57,034 --> 00:22:59,034 all know that perfectly functioning market is more of 645 00:22:59,034 --> 00:23:00,766 functioning market is more of an obstruction rather than the 646 00:23:00,766 --> 00:23:02,566 an obstruction rather than the reality So market actually 647 00:23:02,566 --> 00:23:05,800 reality So market actually don’t often function 648 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:06,766 don’t often function efficiently, and this means 649 00:23:06,766 --> 00:23:09,032 efficiently, and this means that scar’s resources of the 650 00:23:09,032 --> 00:23:12,766 that scar’s resources of the economy are not allocated. 651 00:23:41,966 --> 00:23:44,500 Of course, I include our as a 652 00:23:44,500 --> 00:23:47,300 Of course, I include our as a property then the second 653 00:23:47,300 --> 00:23:49,700 property then the second condition and it requires 654 00:23:49,700 --> 00:23:51,333 condition and it requires requires basically two things 655 00:23:51,333 --> 00:23:55,234 requires basically two things because the VIP. can influence 656 00:23:55,234 --> 00:23:56,933 because the VIP. can influence the investment activity 657 00:23:56,933 --> 00:23:59,100 the investment activity undertaken and that the 658 00:23:59,100 --> 00:24:00,100 undertaken and that the investment activities is 659 00:24:00,100 --> 00:24:02,765 investment activities is actually targeting exactly is 660 00:24:02,765 --> 00:24:04,633 actually targeting exactly is the best is the best project 661 00:24:04,633 --> 00:24:06,466 the best is the best project the best activity that you can 662 00:24:06,466 --> 00:24:08,367 the best activity that you can tackle the market value of the 663 00:24:08,367 --> 00:24:10,999 tackle the market value of the investment yet that was 664 00:24:10,999 --> 00:24:15,098 investment yet that was identified in the President. 665 00:24:15,098 --> 00:24:16,765 identified in the President. Basically this question, it’s a 666 00:24:16,765 --> 00:24:17,833 Basically this question, it’s a really good question. this 667 00:24:17,833 --> 00:24:19,266 really good question. this condition answers the question. 668 00:24:19,266 --> 00:24:21,832 condition answers the question. What brought the best addresses 669 00:24:21,832 --> 00:24:23,165 What brought the best addresses the investment gap and what can 670 00:24:23,165 --> 00:24:25,233 the investment gap and what can they do to shape it in the 671 00:24:25,233 --> 00:24:27,165 they do to shape it in the proper way? so they cannot 672 00:24:27,165 --> 00:24:30,067 proper way? so they cannot clearly. correct the underlying 673 00:24:30,067 --> 00:24:32,166 clearly. correct the underlying market failure, but we can help 674 00:24:32,166 --> 00:24:34,065 market failure, but we can help mitigate the consequences of 675 00:24:34,065 --> 00:24:35,300 mitigate the consequences of the market. failure by shaping 676 00:24:35,300 --> 00:24:37,566 the market. failure by shaping a property that’s projects that 677 00:24:37,566 --> 00:24:40,199 a property that’s projects that are Associated with that and 678 00:24:40,199 --> 00:24:41,732 are Associated with that and this project in practice we do 679 00:24:41,732 --> 00:24:45,932 this project in practice we do it by selecting project on the 680 00:24:45,932 --> 00:24:47,965 it by selecting project on the basis of a of a number of 681 00:24:47,965 --> 00:24:53,232 basis of a of a number of criteria the key one. Is the 682 00:24:53,232 --> 00:24:56,333 criteria the key one. Is the economic impact of the project 683 00:24:56,333 --> 00:24:57,932 economic impact of the project which in the vast majority of 684 00:24:57,932 --> 00:24:59,332 which in the vast majority of cases we assess through a 685 00:24:59,332 --> 00:25:00,932 cases we assess through a cost-benefit analysis and 686 00:25:00,932 --> 00:25:02,898 cost-benefit analysis and calculating an economic rate of 687 00:25:02,898 --> 00:25:04,765 calculating an economic rate of return. This is a monetization 688 00:25:04,765 --> 00:25:07,233 return. This is a monetization of impact that and allow us to 689 00:25:07,233 --> 00:25:08,766 of impact that and allow us to decide what project is best, 690 00:25:08,766 --> 00:25:10,732 decide what project is best, but we’re also trying to assess 691 00:25:10,732 --> 00:25:13,266 but we’re also trying to assess whether compared to the 692 00:25:13,266 --> 00:25:14,866 whether compared to the financial rate of return, which 693 00:25:14,866 --> 00:25:17,965 financial rate of return, which is what goes back to the to the 694 00:25:17,965 --> 00:25:21,933 is what goes back to the to the investors. If what. To society 695 00:25:21,933 --> 00:25:22,766 investors. If what. To society So the difference between 696 00:25:22,766 --> 00:25:24,366 So the difference between economic rate of return and the 697 00:25:24,366 --> 00:25:27,700 economic rate of return and the National rate of return if this 698 00:25:27,700 --> 00:25:29,866 National rate of return if this is big enough to justify an 699 00:25:29,866 --> 00:25:30,533 is big enough to justify an intervention, and of course, 700 00:25:30,533 --> 00:25:33,232 intervention, and of course, it’s if this were negative the 701 00:25:33,232 --> 00:25:34,065 it’s if this were negative the project shouldn’t be financed 702 00:25:34,065 --> 00:25:36,466 project shouldn’t be financed by probably should be taxed. We 703 00:25:36,466 --> 00:25:39,698 by probably should be taxed. We also cover employment and we’ve 704 00:25:39,698 --> 00:25:44,366 also cover employment and we’ve we cover the ESG indicator in 705 00:25:44,366 --> 00:25:46,666 we cover the ESG indicator in in this sector we try to 706 00:25:46,666 --> 00:25:49,201 in this sector we try to monitor and the environmental 707 00:25:49,201 --> 00:25:51,432 monitor and the environmental social. The suspect of the 708 00:25:51,432 --> 00:25:55,233 social. The suspect of the project from the start setting 709 00:25:55,233 --> 00:25:57,698 project from the start setting baseline expected targets and 710 00:25:57,698 --> 00:25:59,032 baseline expected targets and then later on I’ll show you in 711 00:25:59,032 --> 00:26:01,833 then later on I’ll show you in a second. at the exposed we 712 00:26:01,833 --> 00:26:04,233 a second. at the exposed we will also check the expect the 713 00:26:04,233 --> 00:26:06,898 will also check the expect the results have turned into what 714 00:26:06,898 --> 00:26:08,632 results have turned into what we were thinking the project 715 00:26:08,632 --> 00:26:10,099 we were thinking the project would deliver and then the 716 00:26:10,099 --> 00:26:14,532 would deliver and then the last. condition concerns the 717 00:26:14,532 --> 00:26:16,967 last. condition concerns the complementary of the IP to 718 00:26:16,967 --> 00:26:21,701 complementary of the IP to existing source. 719 00:26:22,767 --> 00:26:24,632 Are the type of advice or 720 00:26:24,632 --> 00:26:25,366 Are the type of advice or assistance like a technical 721 00:26:25,366 --> 00:26:27,033 assistance like a technical assistance that the market can 722 00:26:27,033 --> 00:26:29,632 assistance that the market can already offer We with this 723 00:26:29,632 --> 00:26:31,799 already offer We with this question we answer so with this 724 00:26:31,799 --> 00:26:32,632 question we answer so with this story we answer the question 725 00:26:32,632 --> 00:26:35,900 story we answer the question how the a-b can make a 726 00:26:35,900 --> 00:26:38,233 how the a-b can make a difference. How our support our 727 00:26:38,233 --> 00:26:39,533 difference. How our support our input makes a difference and we 728 00:26:39,533 --> 00:26:42,733 input makes a difference and we do it by assessing the 729 00:26:42,733 --> 00:26:43,567 do it by assessing the financial support that was 730 00:26:43,567 --> 00:26:47,000 financial support that was mentioned before in terms of. 731 00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,567 mentioned before in terms of. Financing etcetera and also 732 00:26:49,567 --> 00:26:51,167 Financing etcetera and also through the advice the 733 00:26:51,167 --> 00:26:53,066 through the advice the expertise the technical 734 00:26:53,066 --> 00:26:54,767 expertise the technical assistance or the enforcement 735 00:26:54,767 --> 00:26:58,033 assistance or the enforcement of standards that we try to 736 00:26:58,033 --> 00:27:00,100 of standards that we try to support with financing and 737 00:27:00,100 --> 00:27:03,467 support with financing and selecting our project. I would 738 00:27:03,467 --> 00:27:05,567 selecting our project. I would move to the to the next slide 739 00:27:05,567 --> 00:27:07,433 move to the to the next slide and I’m nearly done and I hope 740 00:27:07,433 --> 00:27:11,300 and I’m nearly done and I hope to be in my time The. this like 741 00:27:11,300 --> 00:27:13,666 to be in my time The. this like tries to see to show you how 742 00:27:13,666 --> 00:27:16,333 tries to see to show you how this additional framework works 743 00:27:16,333 --> 00:27:17,933 this additional framework works in the context of the project 744 00:27:17,933 --> 00:27:22,600 in the context of the project cycle and we intervene in two 745 00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:25,433 cycle and we intervene in two stages. the first is it’s the 746 00:27:25,433 --> 00:27:26,600 stages. the first is it’s the step two of the cycle, which is 747 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,666 step two of the cycle, which is called appraisal. It’s a Judas 748 00:27:29,666 --> 00:27:31,533 called appraisal. It’s a Judas due diligence of the project We 749 00:27:31,533 --> 00:27:32,933 due diligence of the project We identify all the expected 750 00:27:32,933 --> 00:27:35,167 identify all the expected results. And we identify the 751 00:27:35,167 --> 00:27:37,634 results. And we identify the market failure We indicate what 752 00:27:37,634 --> 00:27:39,167 market failure We indicate what measurable indicators we want 753 00:27:39,167 --> 00:27:41,533 measurable indicators we want to follow and then at the end, 754 00:27:41,533 --> 00:27:45,567 to follow and then at the end, Step six the monitoring and 755 00:27:45,567 --> 00:27:49,466 Step six the monitoring and reporting this is where we we 756 00:27:49,466 --> 00:27:50,867 reporting this is where we we use the additional the 757 00:27:50,867 --> 00:27:54,967 use the additional the framework to conduct follow-up 758 00:27:54,967 --> 00:27:55,833 framework to conduct follow-up on results indicators that I 759 00:27:55,833 --> 00:27:57,434 on results indicators that I mentioned it before with the 760 00:27:57,434 --> 00:27:59,300 mentioned it before with the project evaluation and also 761 00:27:59,300 --> 00:28:05,500 project evaluation and also external reporting. So the 762 00:28:35,166 --> 00:28:36,700 To be at the forefront of 763 00:28:36,700 --> 00:28:39,066 To be at the forefront of results and and the impact so 764 00:28:39,066 --> 00:28:40,933 results and and the impact so we we didn’t only work. we have 765 00:28:40,933 --> 00:28:43,500 we we didn’t only work. we have not only worked on developing a 766 00:28:43,500 --> 00:28:45,467 not only worked on developing a new addition of the measurement 767 00:28:45,467 --> 00:28:47,400 new addition of the measurement framework in the past month. We 768 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:51,167 framework in the past month. We also work to reinforce our 769 00:28:51,167 --> 00:28:52,733 also work to reinforce our methodology to make the 770 00:28:52,733 --> 00:28:54,900 methodology to make the contribution of the band to the 771 00:28:54,900 --> 00:28:55,667 contribution of the band to the sustainable development goals. 772 00:28:55,667 --> 00:28:59,200 sustainable development goals. I mean given that we are you 773 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:01,932 I mean given that we are you back Actually I’m with 774 00:29:01,932 --> 00:29:02,532 back Actually I’m with ambitious to become a huge fan 775 00:29:02,532 --> 00:29:06,333 ambitious to become a huge fan of mine we. Is always exhibited 776 00:29:06,333 --> 00:29:10,199 of mine we. Is always exhibited the intentionality to deliver 777 00:29:10,199 --> 00:29:12,032 the intentionality to deliver and as the world grapples with 778 00:29:12,032 --> 00:29:14,532 and as the world grapples with the effects of the epidemic. 779 00:29:14,532 --> 00:29:15,201 the effects of the epidemic. there are a host of new 780 00:29:15,201 --> 00:29:19,032 there are a host of new challenges that we need to that 781 00:29:19,032 --> 00:29:20,233 challenges that we need to that arise and that we we need to 782 00:29:20,233 --> 00:29:23,198 arise and that we we need to look at in the context of the 783 00:29:23,198 --> 00:29:24,232 look at in the context of the sustainable development goals, 784 00:29:24,232 --> 00:29:27,400 sustainable development goals, so the time has come to report 785 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:28,665 so the time has come to report more comprehensive on the 786 00:29:28,665 --> 00:29:30,232 more comprehensive on the sustainable development, our 787 00:29:30,232 --> 00:29:31,533 sustainable development, our contribution and to demonstrate 788 00:29:31,533 --> 00:29:32,933 contribution and to demonstrate how the IB impacts in the world 789 00:29:32,933 --> 00:29:35,467 how the IB impacts in the world so this new method. That you 790 00:29:35,467 --> 00:29:37,999 so this new method. That you that we have developed goes 791 00:29:37,999 --> 00:29:38,933 that we have developed goes beyond what they’re currently 792 00:29:38,933 --> 00:29:40,099 beyond what they’re currently doing what we have. We’ve been 793 00:29:40,099 --> 00:29:41,899 doing what we have. We’ve been doing so far, which is to 794 00:29:41,899 --> 00:29:43,200 doing so far, which is to report the subset of mapping 795 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:49,032 report the subset of mapping indicators but we are going to 796 00:29:49,032 --> 00:29:50,566 indicators but we are going to include the assessment in the 797 00:29:50,566 --> 00:29:52,232 include the assessment in the context of the additional I 798 00:29:52,232 --> 00:29:55,266 context of the additional I mean, but the framework so in 799 00:29:55,266 --> 00:29:57,967 mean, but the framework so in this context, I think the Bank 800 00:29:57,967 --> 00:30:00,032 this context, I think the Bank is many real story to tell and 801 00:30:00,032 --> 00:30:02,065 is many real story to tell and hopefully they’ll good stores 802 00:30:02,065 --> 00:30:03,399 hopefully they’ll good stores and I completed my brief 803 00:30:03,399 --> 00:30:04,667 and I completed my brief intervention and I look forward 804 00:30:04,667 --> 00:30:07,066 intervention and I look forward to that discussion with it will 805 00:30:07,066 --> 00:30:08,232 to that discussion with it will be fruitful and in reaching and 806 00:30:08,232 --> 00:30:09,201 be fruitful and in reaching and thank you very much for your 807 00:30:09,201 --> 00:30:14,032 thank you very much for your attention. Thank you very much 808 00:30:14,032 --> 00:30:16,099 attention. Thank you very much Nicola Let me just have a very 809 00:30:16,099 --> 00:30:18,599 Nicola Let me just have a very quick follow-up question You’re 810 00:30:18,599 --> 00:30:20,067 quick follow-up question You’re already briefly mentioned could 811 00:30:20,067 --> 00:30:22,634 already briefly mentioned could be 19 and it’s impact and I 812 00:30:22,634 --> 00:30:24,367 be 19 and it’s impact and I wonder how the current 813 00:30:24,367 --> 00:30:27,700 wonder how the current extraordinary situation needs 814 00:30:27,700 --> 00:30:29,533 extraordinary situation needs to any changes of your of your 815 00:30:29,533 --> 00:30:30,900 to any changes of your of your assessments of your your 816 00:30:30,900 --> 00:30:32,333 assessments of your your procedure you talk about market 817 00:30:32,333 --> 00:30:35,000 procedure you talk about market failures and mitigating market 818 00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:36,866 failures and mitigating market failures and and putting in 819 00:30:36,866 --> 00:30:38,566 failures and and putting in areas that are investment gaps. 820 00:30:38,566 --> 00:30:40,100 areas that are investment gaps. Now I believe in the current 821 00:30:40,100 --> 00:30:42,733 Now I believe in the current circumstances that are much. 822 00:30:42,733 --> 00:30:46,200 circumstances that are much. The range of investments and 823 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:47,834 The range of investments and more normal circumstances, So 824 00:30:47,834 --> 00:30:49,333 more normal circumstances, So how do you select which chapter 825 00:30:49,333 --> 00:30:53,167 how do you select which chapter or go and and think about what 826 00:30:53,167 --> 00:30:56,400 or go and and think about what additional? 827 00:31:25,733 --> 00:31:27,966 In the object of our attention 828 00:31:27,966 --> 00:31:32,498 In the object of our attention and to to so that let’s say we 829 00:31:32,498 --> 00:31:34,666 and to to so that let’s say we have captured in our in our 830 00:31:34,666 --> 00:31:38,733 have captured in our in our methodology this disaster and 831 00:31:38,733 --> 00:31:41,566 methodology this disaster and provide the right assessment, 832 00:31:41,566 --> 00:31:44,232 provide the right assessment, especially in the pillar one. 833 00:31:44,232 --> 00:31:46,734 especially in the pillar one. the question Why do we have to 834 00:31:46,734 --> 00:31:47,566 the question Why do we have to intervene and what are they 835 00:31:47,566 --> 00:31:48,600 intervene and what are they about the failure? Of course? 836 00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,633 about the failure? Of course? this is brought up in terms of 837 00:31:50,633 --> 00:31:51,600 this is brought up in terms of prioritization as prot up in 838 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:54,666 prioritization as prot up in the leather this type of of 839 00:31:54,666 --> 00:31:56,066 the leather this type of of beneficiaries. If, of course, 840 00:31:56,066 --> 00:31:57,034 beneficiaries. If, of course, there are the reason effective 841 00:31:57,034 --> 00:31:59,400 there are the reason effective situation of of market. And 842 00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,767 situation of of market. And then, of course, where we see 843 00:32:02,767 --> 00:32:04,898 then, of course, where we see that the, for example in the 844 00:32:04,898 --> 00:32:08,867 that the, for example in the health sector. there are there 845 00:32:08,867 --> 00:32:11,333 health sector. there are there is a need for further 846 00:32:11,333 --> 00:32:12,300 is a need for further investments, a lack of 847 00:32:12,300 --> 00:32:13,933 investments, a lack of investment or they don’t 848 00:32:13,933 --> 00:32:15,533 investment or they don’t promptly come in the in the 849 00:32:15,533 --> 00:32:17,133 promptly come in the in the right time frame, as we said 850 00:32:17,133 --> 00:32:18,933 right time frame, as we said before and also that in that 851 00:32:18,933 --> 00:32:22,833 before and also that in that case we are prioritizing we are 852 00:32:22,833 --> 00:32:24,933 case we are prioritizing we are prioritizing project so these 853 00:32:24,933 --> 00:32:27,233 prioritizing project so these two that we are testing. it’s 854 00:32:27,233 --> 00:32:28,000 two that we are testing. it’s just in the final phase. it’s 855 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,500 just in the final phase. it’s actually helping To get more 856 00:32:31,500 --> 00:32:34,367 actually helping To get more emphasis to. as as as as never 857 00:32:34,367 --> 00:32:39,133 emphasis to. as as as as never before to the the role of the 858 00:32:39,133 --> 00:32:40,634 before to the the role of the Bank and prioritize the 859 00:32:40,634 --> 00:32:42,133 Bank and prioritize the intervention in sectors that 860 00:32:42,133 --> 00:32:43,633 intervention in sectors that indeed at higher need while in 861 00:32:43,633 --> 00:32:45,900 indeed at higher need while in the past what we have done, we 862 00:32:45,900 --> 00:32:47,300 the past what we have done, we seem to to select the 863 00:32:47,300 --> 00:32:48,633 seem to to select the eligibility. It means Areli and 864 00:32:48,633 --> 00:32:50,167 eligibility. It means Areli and the sector is eligible for 865 00:32:50,167 --> 00:32:51,367 the sector is eligible for financing. now we want to give 866 00:32:51,367 --> 00:32:53,567 financing. now we want to give priority to projects that with 867 00:32:53,567 --> 00:32:57,900 priority to projects that with the investment gaps are. You 868 00:32:57,900 --> 00:33:00,199 the investment gaps are. You thank you very much Nikola now 869 00:33:00,199 --> 00:33:02,633 thank you very much Nikola now let us to a high speed. The 870 00:33:02,633 --> 00:33:04,966 let us to a high speed. The laas, who is the vice President 871 00:33:04,966 --> 00:33:06,666 laas, who is the vice President of economics and private sector 872 00:33:06,666 --> 00:33:08,100 of economics and private sector development and the 873 00:33:08,100 --> 00:33:10,066 development and the International Finance 874 00:33:10,066 --> 00:33:11,433 International Finance Corporation, So how how do you 875 00:33:11,433 --> 00:33:14,067 Corporation, So how how do you see? an impact on the 876 00:33:14,067 --> 00:33:17,801 see? an impact on the Additionally ivi? Thank you 877 00:33:17,801 --> 00:33:21,033 Additionally ivi? Thank you very much and thanks for having 878 00:33:21,033 --> 00:33:23,033 very much and thanks for having me and for this topic, it’s 879 00:33:23,033 --> 00:33:25,133 me and for this topic, it’s it’s always a pleasure to join 880 00:33:25,133 --> 00:33:28,099 it’s always a pleasure to join brag even from the social 881 00:33:28,099 --> 00:33:30,733 brag even from the social distance here and Andrew it was 882 00:33:30,733 --> 00:33:32,100 distance here and Andrew it was great listening to you. I 883 00:33:32,100 --> 00:33:33,666 great listening to you. I really appreciate the great 884 00:33:33,666 --> 00:33:35,000 really appreciate the great relationship the great working 885 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,100 relationship the great working relationship including on these 886 00:33:37,100 --> 00:33:38,533 relationship including on these topics that you’ve helped us 887 00:33:38,533 --> 00:33:40,234 topics that you’ve helped us develop over the past couple of 888 00:33:40,234 --> 00:33:44,200 develop over the past couple of years. so Corbett as as 889 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:45,700 years. so Corbett as as development finance 890 00:33:45,700 --> 00:33:47,366 development finance institutions for us, this is a 891 00:33:47,366 --> 00:33:49,833 institutions for us, this is a moment of truth. It’s I think 892 00:33:49,833 --> 00:33:53,167 moment of truth. It’s I think we all feel that we need to 893 00:33:53,167 --> 00:33:55,100 we all feel that we need to live up to expectations on how 894 00:33:55,100 --> 00:33:57,633 live up to expectations on how effective and impactful We are 895 00:33:57,633 --> 00:33:59,433 effective and impactful We are in helping people and the 896 00:33:59,433 --> 00:34:01,766 in helping people and the economies re-emerge now I’d 897 00:34:01,766 --> 00:34:03,500 economies re-emerge now I’d like EIB and others. We are 898 00:34:03,500 --> 00:34:05,532 like EIB and others. We are stepping up our crisis response 899 00:34:05,532 --> 00:34:06,733 stepping up our crisis response right now, we’re fully focused 900 00:34:06,733 --> 00:34:09,667 right now, we’re fully focused on delivering some 350 billion 901 00:34:09,667 --> 00:34:11,298 on delivering some 350 billion dollars over the next couple of 902 00:34:11,298 --> 00:34:13,698 dollars over the next couple of years as collectively as the 903 00:34:13,698 --> 00:34:15,265 years as collectively as the World Bank Group about a third 904 00:34:15,265 --> 00:34:17,898 World Bank Group about a third of that from IFC, including 905 00:34:17,898 --> 00:34:20,066 of that from IFC, including mobilization. Now, at the same 906 00:34:20,066 --> 00:34:22,599 mobilization. Now, at the same time, we must remain focused on 907 00:34:22,599 --> 00:34:24,866 time, we must remain focused on our medium term goals and our 908 00:34:24,866 --> 00:34:27,066 our medium term goals and our commitments including poverty 909 00:34:27,066 --> 00:34:28,865 commitments including poverty reduction, inclusive growth and 910 00:34:28,865 --> 00:34:30,567 reduction, inclusive growth and climate objectives, and it’s 911 00:34:30,567 --> 00:34:33,500 climate objectives, and it’s not always easy to ensure that 912 00:34:33,500 --> 00:34:35,166 not always easy to ensure that this medium term and the 913 00:34:35,166 --> 00:34:37,565 this medium term and the short-term imperatives come 914 00:34:37,565 --> 00:34:39,298 short-term imperatives come together. It’s really important 915 00:34:39,298 --> 00:34:40,766 together. It’s really important that we have a solid system to 916 00:34:40,766 --> 00:34:42,667 that we have a solid system to document and measure the 917 00:34:42,667 --> 00:34:45,700 document and measure the success of this work Now I see 918 00:34:45,700 --> 00:34:47,500 success of this work Now I see in the past four years we’ve 919 00:34:47,500 --> 00:34:49,367 in the past four years we’ve built a more robust. Its 920 00:34:49,367 --> 00:34:53,233 built a more robust. Its function. in good parts in 921 00:34:53,233 --> 00:34:54,767 function. in good parts in order to enable us to measure 922 00:34:54,767 --> 00:34:57,067 order to enable us to measure the impact of investment and 923 00:34:57,067 --> 00:34:59,666 the impact of investment and advisory operations. We’re also 924 00:34:59,666 --> 00:35:02,368 advisory operations. We’re also coordinating with other MD B’s 925 00:35:02,368 --> 00:35:03,735 coordinating with other MD B’s to agree on standards and 926 00:35:03,735 --> 00:35:05,636 to agree on standards and conjoined impact indicators so 927 00:35:05,636 --> 00:35:06,668 conjoined impact indicators so that we can increase 928 00:35:06,668 --> 00:35:09,368 that we can increase transparency and facilitate 929 00:35:09,368 --> 00:35:10,835 transparency and facilitate investments from private 930 00:35:10,835 --> 00:35:13,369 investments from private investors and we launched with 931 00:35:13,369 --> 00:35:14,435 investors and we launched with Like-minded partners, many of 932 00:35:14,435 --> 00:35:16,835 Like-minded partners, many of which are here today the 933 00:35:16,835 --> 00:35:18,635 which are here today the operating principles for impact 934 00:35:18,635 --> 00:35:20,635 operating principles for impact investing so that whole impact 935 00:35:20,635 --> 00:35:24,702 investing so that whole impact lens is. 936 00:35:55,601 --> 00:35:57,368 The idea of others we 937 00:35:57,368 --> 00:35:59,235 The idea of others we differentiate between eternity 938 00:35:59,235 --> 00:36:01,434 differentiate between eternity and and development impact we 939 00:36:01,434 --> 00:36:03,835 and and development impact we define eality as what the 940 00:36:03,835 --> 00:36:06,201 define eality as what the investor I see brings to the 941 00:36:06,201 --> 00:36:08,803 investor I see brings to the best tea firm or to the 942 00:36:08,803 --> 00:36:10,134 best tea firm or to the investment project and 943 00:36:10,134 --> 00:36:13,069 investment project and development impact encompasses 944 00:36:13,069 --> 00:36:15,634 development impact encompasses effects generated by the 945 00:36:15,634 --> 00:36:17,235 effects generated by the investment project itself. so 946 00:36:17,235 --> 00:36:19,634 investment project itself. so to speak briefly about Assn and 947 00:36:19,634 --> 00:36:21,401 to speak briefly about Assn and then about development impact 948 00:36:21,401 --> 00:36:23,735 then about development impact and then I’ll conclude with 949 00:36:23,735 --> 00:36:26,168 and then I’ll conclude with some reflections on the 950 00:36:26,168 --> 00:36:28,635 some reflections on the consequences of covid- 19 for 951 00:36:28,635 --> 00:36:30,703 consequences of covid- 19 for these measurements approaches 952 00:36:30,703 --> 00:36:33,502 these measurements approaches one. It’s of course, a crucial 953 00:36:33,502 --> 00:36:35,434 one. It’s of course, a crucial condition of our shareholders 954 00:36:35,434 --> 00:36:36,768 condition of our shareholders like Andrews Sato, very well. 955 00:36:36,768 --> 00:36:39,101 like Andrews Sato, very well. We have very much the same. 956 00:36:39,101 --> 00:36:40,668 We have very much the same. mandates and article 957 00:36:40,668 --> 00:36:42,168 mandates and article constraints if we are not 958 00:36:42,168 --> 00:36:43,535 constraints if we are not additional, then what’s the 959 00:36:43,535 --> 00:36:45,201 additional, then what’s the point of having us and we are 960 00:36:45,201 --> 00:36:47,234 point of having us and we are constantly being asked that 961 00:36:47,234 --> 00:36:50,101 constantly being asked that question. So we’ve reviewed and 962 00:36:50,101 --> 00:36:51,134 question. So we’ve reviewed and revised our approach a couple 963 00:36:51,134 --> 00:36:53,135 revised our approach a couple of years ago in parallel with 964 00:36:53,135 --> 00:36:55,268 of years ago in parallel with an MD additional task force 965 00:36:55,268 --> 00:36:57,102 an MD additional task force that we call it and that was 966 00:36:57,102 --> 00:36:58,935 that we call it and that was established to respond to a 967 00:36:58,935 --> 00:37:00,435 established to respond to a Gseven request at the time for 968 00:37:00,435 --> 00:37:03,667 Gseven request at the time for a common MDB framework. Our 969 00:37:03,667 --> 00:37:06,102 a common MDB framework. Our approach to assessing financial 970 00:37:06,102 --> 00:37:09,300 approach to assessing financial andity for a given project now 971 00:37:09,300 --> 00:37:11,702 andity for a given project now includes a review of indicators 972 00:37:11,702 --> 00:37:13,102 includes a review of indicators of financing conditions and 973 00:37:13,102 --> 00:37:15,534 of financing conditions and constraints in the country and 974 00:37:15,534 --> 00:37:17,369 constraints in the country and identifying market benchmarks 975 00:37:17,369 --> 00:37:19,535 identifying market benchmarks and country and sector level 976 00:37:19,535 --> 00:37:22,234 and country and sector level against which to compare our 977 00:37:22,234 --> 00:37:24,134 against which to compare our own conditions and this 978 00:37:24,134 --> 00:37:25,535 own conditions and this information. This information 979 00:37:25,535 --> 00:37:27,635 information. This information is presented in the board 980 00:37:27,635 --> 00:37:29,669 is presented in the board documentation the requirements 981 00:37:29,669 --> 00:37:32,168 documentation the requirements for assessing and articulating 982 00:37:32,168 --> 00:37:34,101 for assessing and articulating Non-financial has also been 983 00:37:34,101 --> 00:37:36,368 Non-financial has also been tightened and most importantly, 984 00:37:36,368 --> 00:37:38,469 tightened and most importantly, requiring a description. Of the 985 00:37:38,469 --> 00:37:41,234 requiring a description. Of the development impact Delta that 986 00:37:41,234 --> 00:37:43,300 development impact Delta that will be attributable to IFC 987 00:37:43,300 --> 00:37:45,535 will be attributable to IFC involvement. I it’s not just 988 00:37:45,535 --> 00:37:47,102 involvement. I it’s not just about having a good project, 989 00:37:47,102 --> 00:37:49,101 about having a good project, but we need to prove it’s good 990 00:37:49,101 --> 00:37:51,268 but we need to prove it’s good because of us and this is still 991 00:37:51,268 --> 00:37:54,102 because of us and this is still somewhat work in progress 992 00:37:54,102 --> 00:37:56,069 somewhat work in progress attribution can be very hard 993 00:37:56,069 --> 00:37:57,601 attribution can be very hard now with the help of this 994 00:37:57,601 --> 00:37:59,035 now with the help of this analysis and these benchmarks 995 00:37:59,035 --> 00:38:01,400 analysis and these benchmarks we try to build a plausible 996 00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,300 we try to build a plausible case in each project that it 997 00:38:03,300 --> 00:38:05,169 case in each project that it would either not come about 998 00:38:05,169 --> 00:38:06,703 would either not come about without IFC or that it would 999 00:38:06,703 --> 00:38:09,234 without IFC or that it would not have. Value from a 1000 00:38:09,234 --> 00:38:11,268 not have. Value from a development perspective if it 1001 00:38:11,268 --> 00:38:14,234 development perspective if it did we continue refining our 1002 00:38:14,234 --> 00:38:15,368 did we continue refining our approach and this includes 1003 00:38:15,368 --> 00:38:16,768 approach and this includes right now trying to develop 1004 00:38:16,768 --> 00:38:18,167 right now trying to develop benchmarks for equity 1005 00:38:18,167 --> 00:38:19,635 benchmarks for equity transactions, which is 1006 00:38:19,635 --> 00:38:22,500 transactions, which is challenging and raising the bar 1007 00:38:22,500 --> 00:38:25,003 challenging and raising the bar in documenting the rationale 1008 00:38:25,003 --> 00:38:27,034 in documenting the rationale for IFC involvement with 1009 00:38:27,034 --> 00:38:29,035 for IFC involvement with multinational corporations, 1010 00:38:29,035 --> 00:38:32,602 multinational corporations, which typically. do not have. 1011 00:38:32,602 --> 00:38:34,367 which typically. do not have. financing constraints. so the 1012 00:38:34,367 --> 00:38:36,634 financing constraints. so the the justification requirement 1013 00:38:36,634 --> 00:38:40,101 the justification requirement is a whole. Harder and that is 1014 00:38:40,101 --> 00:38:42,768 is a whole. Harder and that is something we we repeatedly 1015 00:38:42,768 --> 00:38:44,001 something we we repeatedly experience with our boards so 1016 00:38:44,001 --> 00:38:45,101 experience with our boards so we we’re working on those 1017 00:38:45,101 --> 00:38:48,102 we we’re working on those issues now we also have 1018 00:38:48,102 --> 00:38:49,635 issues now we also have periodic debates with 1019 00:38:49,635 --> 00:38:51,234 periodic debates with shareholders and with other MD 1020 00:38:51,234 --> 00:38:53,534 shareholders and with other MD B’s about scoring nationality 1021 00:38:53,534 --> 00:38:56,102 B’s about scoring nationality but the part from the 1022 00:38:56,102 --> 00:38:57,535 but the part from the difficulty of doing so we 1023 00:38:57,535 --> 00:39:01,298 difficulty of doing so we continue to see edna as a 1024 00:39:01,298 --> 00:39:02,066 continue to see edna as a threshold condition that needs 1025 00:39:02,066 --> 00:39:04,733 threshold condition that needs to be present for any IFC 1026 00:39:04,733 --> 00:39:06,601 to be present for any IFC engagement. Our articles don’t 1027 00:39:06,601 --> 00:39:09,832 engagement. Our articles don’t allow. To be just a little bit. 1028 00:39:09,832 --> 00:39:13,033 allow. To be just a little bit. additional. now briefly it’s 1029 00:39:13,033 --> 00:39:16,199 additional. now briefly it’s all on development impact so 1030 00:39:16,199 --> 00:39:17,698 all on development impact so while there will be no point 1031 00:39:17,698 --> 00:39:18,898 while there will be no point having us if we weren’t 1032 00:39:18,898 --> 00:39:20,901 having us if we weren’t additional. development impact 1033 00:39:20,901 --> 00:39:24,298 additional. development impact is of his own death, And I’m an 1034 00:39:24,298 --> 00:39:25,733 is of his own death, And I’m an impact is scalable we set 1035 00:39:25,733 --> 00:39:28,199 impact is scalable we set targets to achieve as much of 1036 00:39:28,199 --> 00:39:30,599 targets to achieve as much of it as possible and we have 1037 00:39:30,599 --> 00:39:32,499 it as possible and we have geared much of our incentives 1038 00:39:32,499 --> 00:39:35,000 geared much of our incentives system around it three years 1039 00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:36,233 system around it three years ago, we started putting in 1040 00:39:36,233 --> 00:39:38,400 ago, we started putting in place a new approach to impact 1041 00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,567 place a new approach to impact measurement called aim. 1042 00:39:41,567 --> 00:39:43,300 measurement called aim. Anticipated impact measurement 1043 00:39:43,300 --> 00:39:44,900 Anticipated impact measurement and monitoring framework in 1044 00:39:44,900 --> 00:39:47,166 and monitoring framework in essence aim assesses the extent 1045 00:39:47,166 --> 00:39:49,500 essence aim assesses the extent to which projects address 1046 00:39:49,500 --> 00:39:51,066 to which projects address sector and countries specific 1047 00:39:51,066 --> 00:39:53,533 sector and countries specific development gaps that we try to 1048 00:39:53,533 --> 00:39:56,233 development gaps that we try to quantify through indicators and 1049 00:39:56,233 --> 00:39:58,100 quantify through indicators and benchmarks then apply a 1050 00:39:58,100 --> 00:40:00,467 benchmarks then apply a livelihood factor and establish 1051 00:40:00,467 --> 00:40:03,833 livelihood factor and establish a score for each project. I had 1052 00:40:03,833 --> 00:40:05,433 a score for each project. I had a slide that I was going to 1053 00:40:05,433 --> 00:40:07,200 a slide that I was going to draw up, but I think it’s it’s 1054 00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:08,966 draw up, but I think it’s it’s probably not necessary. Let me 1055 00:40:08,966 --> 00:40:11,166 probably not necessary. Let me let me just continue unless you 1056 00:40:11,166 --> 00:40:12,533 let me just continue unless you tell me that this that I’m 1057 00:40:12,533 --> 00:40:14,233 tell me that this that I’m getting too complicated here 1058 00:40:14,233 --> 00:40:16,767 getting too complicated here now. what’s important is that 1059 00:40:16,767 --> 00:40:19,033 now. what’s important is that we measure impact on two 1060 00:40:19,033 --> 00:40:21,434 we measure impact on two different dimensions, The first 1061 00:40:21,434 --> 00:40:23,600 different dimensions, The first dimension is the project 1062 00:40:23,600 --> 00:40:25,433 dimension is the project outcomes, and that includes the 1063 00:40:25,433 --> 00:40:27,567 outcomes, and that includes the direct effects on different 1064 00:40:27,567 --> 00:40:28,967 direct effects on different stakeholders. I think incomes 1065 00:40:28,967 --> 00:40:30,833 stakeholders. I think incomes jobs access to services taxes 1066 00:40:30,833 --> 00:40:34,600 jobs access to services taxes et cetera, as well as. Indirect 1067 00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,533 et cetera, as well as. Indirect economy-wide and climate and 1068 00:40:36,533 --> 00:40:38,500 economy-wide and climate and other environmental effects 1069 00:40:38,500 --> 00:40:40,600 other environmental effects that reflects spillovers across 1070 00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:42,900 that reflects spillovers across the economy and society and 1071 00:40:42,900 --> 00:40:44,900 the economy and society and that we estimate with modeling 1072 00:40:44,900 --> 00:40:46,667 that we estimate with modeling tools for each project. so 1073 00:40:46,667 --> 00:40:50,167 tools for each project. so those are projects outcomes. 1074 00:40:50,167 --> 00:40:51,900 those are projects outcomes. Secondly, we try to assess 1075 00:40:51,900 --> 00:40:54,800 Secondly, we try to assess market outcomes and that refers 1076 00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,367 market outcomes and that refers to catt or systemic effects. 1077 00:40:57,367 --> 00:40:59,767 to catt or systemic effects. The question here is do we help 1078 00:40:59,767 --> 00:41:01,367 The question here is do we help to bring about what to 1079 00:41:01,367 --> 00:41:03,633 to bring about what to considerably improve whole 1080 00:41:03,633 --> 00:41:05,833 considerably improve whole markets? Market segments 1081 00:41:05,833 --> 00:41:08,332 markets? Market segments through one or or a series of 1082 00:41:08,332 --> 00:41:09,666 through one or or a series of interventions, especially when 1083 00:41:09,666 --> 00:41:11,867 interventions, especially when we work in tandem with the 1084 00:41:11,867 --> 00:41:13,199 we work in tandem with the World Bank to build the 1085 00:41:13,199 --> 00:41:14,232 World Bank to build the capacity of standards or help 1086 00:41:14,232 --> 00:41:17,199 capacity of standards or help to help change policies and 1087 00:41:17,199 --> 00:41:18,699 to help change policies and regulations, which then allow 1088 00:41:18,699 --> 00:41:20,232 regulations, which then allow the market as a whole to 1089 00:41:20,232 --> 00:41:24,067 the market as a whole to respond. the second this market 1090 00:41:24,067 --> 00:41:25,165 respond. the second this market this market outcomes are 1091 00:41:25,165 --> 00:41:27,533 this market outcomes are crucial for us because we feel 1092 00:41:27,533 --> 00:41:29,167 crucial for us because we feel that we will not make a serious 1093 00:41:29,167 --> 00:41:30,700 that we will not make a serious contribution to development 1094 00:41:30,700 --> 00:41:32,901 contribution to development with finance and individual 1095 00:41:32,901 --> 00:41:35,701 with finance and individual projects alone for. Our balance 1096 00:41:35,701 --> 00:41:37,999 projects alone for. Our balance sheet is just too small in 1097 00:41:37,999 --> 00:41:39,532 sheet is just too small in comparison to the whole 1098 00:41:39,532 --> 00:41:41,433 comparison to the whole universe of countries in which 1099 00:41:41,433 --> 00:41:44,099 universe of countries in which ISC is working this impact 1100 00:41:44,099 --> 00:41:46,632 ISC is working this impact assessment is done Ex-ante 1101 00:41:46,632 --> 00:41:48,232 assessment is done Ex-ante based on best available 1102 00:41:48,232 --> 00:41:50,599 based on best available estimates in order to inform 1103 00:41:50,599 --> 00:41:52,501 estimates in order to inform investment choices and design. 1104 00:41:52,501 --> 00:41:54,400 investment choices and design. This is where the incentives 1105 00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:56,100 This is where the incentives are proving to be quite 1106 00:41:56,100 --> 00:41:58,233 are proving to be quite influential teams have scored 1107 00:41:58,233 --> 00:42:00,232 influential teams have scored out targets for impact and 1108 00:42:00,232 --> 00:42:02,034 out targets for impact and project pipelines are being 1109 00:42:02,034 --> 00:42:05,133 project pipelines are being built to reflect impact and. It 1110 00:42:05,133 --> 00:42:07,600 built to reflect impact and. It is done. exposed during 1111 00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,498 is done. exposed during implementation where we assess 1112 00:42:09,498 --> 00:42:10,898 implementation where we assess actual impact against the 1113 00:42:10,898 --> 00:42:14,233 actual impact against the achievement of the indicator 1114 00:42:14,233 --> 00:42:17,233 achievement of the indicator benchmarks now I have CS aim 1115 00:42:17,233 --> 00:42:18,967 benchmarks now I have CS aim shares many features with the 1116 00:42:18,967 --> 00:42:21,132 shares many features with the development impact frameworks 1117 00:42:21,132 --> 00:42:23,701 development impact frameworks of other II, for instance, the 1118 00:42:23,701 --> 00:42:25,298 of other II, for instance, the stakeholder approach to assess 1119 00:42:25,298 --> 00:42:27,033 stakeholder approach to assess direct and even some indirect 1120 00:42:27,033 --> 00:42:29,366 direct and even some indirect effects is something most. I do 1121 00:42:29,366 --> 00:42:31,599 effects is something most. I do one way or another, and I’m 1122 00:42:31,599 --> 00:42:33,165 one way or another, and I’m sure we will hear from Matta 1123 00:42:33,165 --> 00:42:35,766 sure we will hear from Matta about evi ID’s. Impact 1124 00:42:35,766 --> 00:42:37,298 about evi ID’s. Impact approach, which they have 1125 00:42:37,298 --> 00:42:39,632 approach, which they have pioneered what was really 1126 00:42:39,632 --> 00:42:41,066 pioneered what was really interesting is how the private 1127 00:42:41,066 --> 00:42:43,533 interesting is how the private impact investing sector is 1128 00:42:43,533 --> 00:42:44,933 impact investing sector is suddenly a real presence in 1129 00:42:44,933 --> 00:42:46,766 suddenly a real presence in these conversations, the 1130 00:42:46,766 --> 00:42:48,366 these conversations, the privates mostly private equity 1131 00:42:48,366 --> 00:42:50,099 privates mostly private equity sector at this point, but we 1132 00:42:50,099 --> 00:42:52,099 sector at this point, but we are working very hard to expand 1133 00:42:52,099 --> 00:42:54,199 are working very hard to expand also to private debt and to 1134 00:42:54,199 --> 00:42:56,500 also to private debt and to public markets, I used to have 1135 00:42:56,500 --> 00:42:58,233 public markets, I used to have a monopoly over the topics as 1136 00:42:58,233 --> 00:42:59,767 a monopoly over the topics as I’ve mentioned, but as the 1137 00:42:59,767 --> 00:43:02,099 I’ve mentioned, but as the private sector is now engaged 1138 00:43:02,099 --> 00:43:04,365 private sector is now engaged as they do, they’re innovating 1139 00:43:04,365 --> 00:43:06,100 as they do, they’re innovating and differentiating and 1140 00:43:06,100 --> 00:43:08,533 and differentiating and developing. Approaches that we 1141 00:43:08,533 --> 00:43:12,533 developing. Approaches that we I I can start to learn from. 1142 00:43:12,533 --> 00:43:15,232 I I can start to learn from. today. IFC has assessed about 1143 00:43:15,232 --> 00:43:16,467 today. IFC has assessed about a thousand 400 investment 1144 00:43:16,467 --> 00:43:18,566 a thousand 400 investment projects over these three years 1145 00:43:18,566 --> 00:43:19,566 projects over these three years across countries and sectors 1146 00:43:19,566 --> 00:43:21,933 across countries and sectors with the aim framework and now 1147 00:43:21,933 --> 00:43:24,100 with the aim framework and now we’re piloting this monitoring 1148 00:43:24,100 --> 00:43:26,599 we’re piloting this monitoring function that I mentioned now 1149 00:43:26,599 --> 00:43:29,565 function that I mentioned now what’s the impact of chronic 19 1150 00:43:29,565 --> 00:43:31,398 what’s the impact of chronic 19 after the crisis hit I’ve seen 1151 00:43:31,398 --> 00:43:33,898 after the crisis hit I’ve seen like other I repositioned 1152 00:43:33,898 --> 00:43:36,100 like other I repositioned itself to focus on the crisis 1153 00:43:36,100 --> 00:43:37,801 itself to focus on the crisis response and so since March, 1154 00:43:37,801 --> 00:43:39,433 response and so since March, we’ve added about eight billion 1155 00:43:39,433 --> 00:43:41,401 we’ve added about eight billion dollars worth of crisis’ 1156 00:43:41,401 --> 00:43:44,666 dollars worth of crisis’ projects. While losing a large 1157 00:43:44,666 --> 00:43:46,199 projects. While losing a large proportion of our earlier high 1158 00:43:46,199 --> 00:43:48,898 proportion of our earlier high blood, some of that postponed, 1159 00:43:48,898 --> 00:43:50,166 blood, some of that postponed, some of that is probably not 1160 00:43:50,166 --> 00:43:51,965 some of that is probably not going to come back now, 1161 00:43:51,965 --> 00:43:53,832 going to come back now, assessing the development 1162 00:43:53,832 --> 00:43:56,532 assessing the development impact of kt 19 interventions 1163 00:43:56,532 --> 00:43:58,367 impact of kt 19 interventions presented some challenges to 1164 00:43:58,367 --> 00:43:59,665 presented some challenges to the aim approach. This is 1165 00:43:59,665 --> 00:44:01,133 the aim approach. This is because the a.m. framework 1166 00:44:01,133 --> 00:44:03,265 because the a.m. framework places a premium on country 1167 00:44:03,265 --> 00:44:05,733 places a premium on country context and on on economic 1168 00:44:05,733 --> 00:44:07,266 context and on on economic efficiency, all else equal 1169 00:44:07,266 --> 00:44:08,898 efficiency, all else equal projects that seek to address 1170 00:44:08,898 --> 00:44:11,298 projects that seek to address wider cats and to deliver more 1171 00:44:11,298 --> 00:44:12,699 wider cats and to deliver more development outcome for 1172 00:44:12,699 --> 00:44:14,065 development outcome for a million dollars of investment 1173 00:44:14,065 --> 00:44:15,567 a million dollars of investment tend to score higher. But what 1174 00:44:15,567 --> 00:44:18,367 tend to score higher. But what happens when? In a century 1175 00:44:18,367 --> 00:44:20,500 happens when? In a century emerges with the global nature 1176 00:44:20,500 --> 00:44:22,367 emerges with the global nature of the pandemic has no credible 1177 00:44:22,367 --> 00:44:24,900 of the pandemic has no credible compar no benchmarks and 1178 00:44:24,900 --> 00:44:26,367 compar no benchmarks and efficiency may not be the best 1179 00:44:26,367 --> 00:44:28,867 efficiency may not be the best measure of success to reflect 1180 00:44:28,867 --> 00:44:32,233 measure of success to reflect that impact. we have modified 1181 00:44:32,233 --> 00:44:33,266 that impact. we have modified the a rating approach in a 1182 00:44:33,266 --> 00:44:36,500 the a rating approach in a couple of ways we distinguish 1183 00:44:36,500 --> 00:44:37,534 couple of ways we distinguish between the relief 1184 00:44:37,534 --> 00:44:39,366 between the relief restructuring and recovery 1185 00:44:39,366 --> 00:44:41,033 restructuring and recovery phases and projects that fall 1186 00:44:41,033 --> 00:44:43,033 phases and projects that fall into this category so in the 1187 00:44:43,033 --> 00:44:45,300 into this category so in the relief phase the focus was on 1188 00:44:45,300 --> 00:44:47,000 relief phase the focus was on liquidity. there was very 1189 00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:49,267 liquidity. there was very little. To figure out sector or 1190 00:44:49,267 --> 00:44:52,666 little. To figure out sector or project specific data and so we 1191 00:44:52,666 --> 00:44:55,033 project specific data and so we established uniform standards 1192 00:44:55,033 --> 00:44:56,566 established uniform standards for each instrument across 1193 00:44:56,566 --> 00:44:58,333 for each instrument across countries with a focus on the 1194 00:44:58,333 --> 00:45:00,599 countries with a focus on the benefits of firm survival 1195 00:45:00,599 --> 00:45:03,633 benefits of firm survival rather than on growth and 1196 00:45:03,633 --> 00:45:05,300 rather than on growth and differentiation will be 1197 00:45:05,300 --> 00:45:07,767 differentiation will be introduced exposed during the 1198 00:45:07,767 --> 00:45:10,167 introduced exposed during the monitoring phase. but the 1199 00:45:10,167 --> 00:45:12,633 monitoring phase. but the recovery phase and related 1200 00:45:12,633 --> 00:45:15,600 recovery phase and related projects there are now 1201 00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:17,300 projects there are now differentiated aim approaches 1202 00:45:17,300 --> 00:45:19,033 differentiated aim approaches being designed to reflect 1203 00:45:19,033 --> 00:45:21,300 being designed to reflect groups of similar interval. 1204 00:45:21,300 --> 00:45:23,667 groups of similar interval. With a common objective and 1205 00:45:23,667 --> 00:45:25,300 With a common objective and similar medium term challenges, 1206 00:45:25,300 --> 00:45:27,500 similar medium term challenges, for instance for a global 1207 00:45:27,500 --> 00:45:29,233 for instance for a global health platform that we are 1208 00:45:29,233 --> 00:45:30,900 health platform that we are launching in the coming days, 1209 00:45:30,900 --> 00:45:33,400 launching in the coming days, we are differentiating between 1210 00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:36,633 we are differentiating between support for availability the 1211 00:45:36,633 --> 00:45:38,167 support for availability the manufacturer of equipment and 1212 00:45:38,167 --> 00:45:39,600 manufacturer of equipment and the provision of health 1213 00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:42,200 the provision of health services in country as well as 1214 00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:43,567 services in country as well as whether the protection or 1215 00:45:43,567 --> 00:45:45,300 whether the protection or service provision is in either 1216 00:45:45,300 --> 00:45:47,933 service provision is in either or middle-income countries. So 1217 00:45:47,933 --> 00:45:54,034 or middle-income countries. So we we introduce certain. 1218 00:46:26,066 --> 00:46:28,067 Our operations and what we hope 1219 00:46:28,067 --> 00:46:30,032 Our operations and what we hope to achieve is to provide 1220 00:46:30,032 --> 00:46:31,698 to achieve is to provide renewed investment and growth 1221 00:46:31,698 --> 00:46:33,666 renewed investment and growth momentum with greater 1222 00:46:33,666 --> 00:46:35,399 momentum with greater resilience and to ensure that 1223 00:46:35,399 --> 00:46:37,566 resilience and to ensure that positive impact will be a key 1224 00:46:37,566 --> 00:46:39,733 positive impact will be a key feature of the recovery. 1225 00:46:39,733 --> 00:46:41,633 feature of the recovery. There’s some evidence that the 1226 00:46:41,633 --> 00:46:42,498 There’s some evidence that the crisis may have heightened 1227 00:46:42,498 --> 00:46:44,701 crisis may have heightened investors sensitivity to impact 1228 00:46:44,701 --> 00:46:46,999 investors sensitivity to impact including around the climate 1229 00:46:46,999 --> 00:46:49,733 including around the climate gender and more broadly around 1230 00:46:49,733 --> 00:46:51,366 gender and more broadly around inclusion That’s capitalize on 1231 00:46:51,366 --> 00:46:54,298 inclusion That’s capitalize on that to use. Thank you. Thank 1232 00:46:54,298 --> 00:46:57,034 that to use. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you very much for 1233 00:46:57,034 --> 00:47:01,633 you. Thank you very much for this. description of of the. 1234 00:47:01,633 --> 00:47:03,100 this. description of of the. Developing and and how you 1235 00:47:03,100 --> 00:47:04,933 Developing and and how you revise your your I would love 1236 00:47:04,933 --> 00:47:08,033 revise your your I would love to ask you what is that you 1237 00:47:08,033 --> 00:47:09,832 to ask you what is that you mentioned that you find it 1238 00:47:09,832 --> 00:47:12,467 mentioned that you find it difficult to somehow airline 1239 00:47:12,467 --> 00:47:13,667 difficult to somehow airline the couldve back to the more 1240 00:47:13,667 --> 00:47:16,533 the couldve back to the more medium-term goals like poverty, 1241 00:47:16,533 --> 00:47:18,100 medium-term goals like poverty, reduction and climate, but this 1242 00:47:18,100 --> 00:47:19,401 reduction and climate, but this time is running. let’s leave 1243 00:47:19,401 --> 00:47:21,200 time is running. let’s leave this question if you have time 1244 00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:23,266 this question if you have time at the end of the session and I 1245 00:47:23,266 --> 00:47:26,167 at the end of the session and I move to Maia Armani, who is a 1246 00:47:26,167 --> 00:47:29,600 move to Maia Armani, who is a managing director of Yanni and 1247 00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:32,700 managing director of Yanni and Suan. 1248 00:48:05,932 --> 00:48:07,698 Probably go through my slides 1249 00:48:07,698 --> 00:48:08,498 Probably go through my slides quite quickly be easy for 1250 00:48:08,498 --> 00:48:10,999 quite quickly be easy for people for people to to follow 1251 00:48:10,999 --> 00:48:14,833 people for people to to follow but fundamentally E B R D works 1252 00:48:14,833 --> 00:48:17,866 but fundamentally E B R D works across three fundamental 1253 00:48:17,866 --> 00:48:19,298 across three fundamental principles and that’s where I 1254 00:48:19,298 --> 00:48:20,232 principles and that’s where I want to start the basic 1255 00:48:20,232 --> 00:48:22,065 want to start the basic principles of the E B R D, and 1256 00:48:22,065 --> 00:48:24,399 principles of the E B R D, and then I’ll go into transition 1257 00:48:24,399 --> 00:48:25,966 then I’ll go into transition impact and how we assess it and 1258 00:48:25,966 --> 00:48:28,232 impact and how we assess it and monitor it and monitor it 1259 00:48:28,232 --> 00:48:31,032 monitor it and monitor it Additionally and then leave the 1260 00:48:31,032 --> 00:48:31,832 Additionally and then leave the audience with some questions 1261 00:48:31,832 --> 00:48:33,200 audience with some questions that I would love to have 1262 00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:34,066 that I would love to have answered by those amazing 1263 00:48:34,066 --> 00:48:36,200 answered by those amazing panels so three fundamental 1264 00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:37,634 panels so three fundamental principles for E B R D. What 1265 00:48:37,634 --> 00:48:38,900 principles for E B R D. What are they Well Three things 1266 00:48:38,900 --> 00:48:39,967 are they Well Three things sound banking principle as you 1267 00:48:39,967 --> 00:48:41,933 sound banking principle as you know there is a market basis. 1268 00:48:41,933 --> 00:48:45,133 know there is a market basis. Dion we only invest when the 1269 00:48:45,133 --> 00:48:47,000 Dion we only invest when the terms of the investments are 1270 00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:50,066 terms of the investments are market terms and indeed to the 1271 00:48:50,066 --> 00:48:52,300 market terms and indeed to the other two principles of every 1272 00:48:52,300 --> 00:48:55,100 other two principles of every activity debut embarks on 1273 00:48:55,100 --> 00:48:58,066 activity debut embarks on additional and transition 1274 00:48:58,066 --> 00:49:00,333 additional and transition impact the impact we achieve 1275 00:49:00,333 --> 00:49:05,132 impact the impact we achieve now the in the last five or six 1276 00:49:05,132 --> 00:49:07,300 now the in the last five or six years. CBD has been looking at 1277 00:49:07,300 --> 00:49:10,099 years. CBD has been looking at the it’s mandate and it’s 1278 00:49:10,099 --> 00:49:13,033 the it’s mandate and it’s Monday it was always focused on 1279 00:49:13,033 --> 00:49:15,233 Monday it was always focused on transition to. Economies but he 1280 00:49:15,233 --> 00:49:17,633 transition to. Economies but he was clear that the market 1281 00:49:17,633 --> 00:49:19,166 was clear that the market economy is that we want to 1282 00:49:19,166 --> 00:49:21,766 economy is that we want to support our country’s develop 1283 00:49:21,766 --> 00:49:23,665 support our country’s develop had certain characteristics and 1284 00:49:23,665 --> 00:49:27,632 had certain characteristics and qualities that made them in our 1285 00:49:27,632 --> 00:49:30,498 qualities that made them in our view sustainable as markets and 1286 00:49:30,498 --> 00:49:31,698 view sustainable as markets and this is the qualities are on 1287 00:49:31,698 --> 00:49:34,332 this is the qualities are on this on the slide it points to 1288 00:49:34,332 --> 00:49:35,832 this on the slide it points to the fact that A-b RD five or 1289 00:49:35,832 --> 00:49:37,666 the fact that A-b RD five or six years ago, we confirmed the 1290 00:49:37,666 --> 00:49:39,132 six years ago, we confirmed the commitment to markets, but they 1291 00:49:39,132 --> 00:49:42,067 commitment to markets, but they also understood that markets do 1292 00:49:42,067 --> 00:49:44,067 also understood that markets do not always work to meet. 1293 00:49:44,067 --> 00:49:46,599 not always work to meet. Ambition of people and the 1294 00:49:46,599 --> 00:49:48,300 Ambition of people and the desperation of people markets 1295 00:49:48,300 --> 00:49:49,633 desperation of people markets need to have certain 1296 00:49:49,633 --> 00:49:51,632 need to have certain characteristics they need to be 1297 00:49:51,632 --> 00:49:53,832 characteristics they need to be competitive. They need to be 1298 00:49:53,832 --> 00:49:55,500 competitive. They need to be integrated. they need to be 1299 00:49:55,500 --> 00:49:56,232 integrated. they need to be resilient, but they also need 1300 00:49:56,232 --> 00:49:58,765 resilient, but they also need to be well governed they need 1301 00:49:58,765 --> 00:50:01,401 to be well governed they need to be based and supported by 1302 00:50:01,401 --> 00:50:02,566 to be based and supported by institutions who are 1303 00:50:02,566 --> 00:50:03,999 institutions who are transparent and work for people 1304 00:50:03,999 --> 00:50:05,432 transparent and work for people they need to be Green. They 1305 00:50:05,432 --> 00:50:07,566 they need to be Green. They need to respectfully the 1306 00:50:07,566 --> 00:50:09,100 need to respectfully the externalities, particularly 1307 00:50:09,100 --> 00:50:10,765 externalities, particularly environmental externalities and 1308 00:50:10,765 --> 00:50:12,466 environmental externalities and they need to be inclusive. They 1309 00:50:12,466 --> 00:50:15,032 they need to be inclusive. They cannot leave people. So five or 1310 00:50:15,032 --> 00:50:16,498 cannot leave people. So five or six years ago, we started 1311 00:50:16,498 --> 00:50:17,532 six years ago, we started rethinking about what the six 1312 00:50:17,532 --> 00:50:20,232 rethinking about what the six is mean in terms of looking at 1313 00:50:20,232 --> 00:50:23,165 is mean in terms of looking at the what the Bank does and in 1314 00:50:23,165 --> 00:50:25,466 the what the Bank does and in particular, it’s transitioning 1315 00:50:25,466 --> 00:50:26,699 particular, it’s transitioning impact so the next light looks 1316 00:50:26,699 --> 00:50:28,367 impact so the next light looks complicated. I like the call I 1317 00:50:28,367 --> 00:50:29,800 complicated. I like the call I like it, It’s called the rocket 1318 00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:33,567 like it, It’s called the rocket but please bare with me for a 1319 00:50:33,567 --> 00:50:34,567 but please bare with me for a second and you’ll see that it’s 1320 00:50:34,567 --> 00:50:36,466 second and you’ll see that it’s not complicated at all. it 1321 00:50:36,466 --> 00:50:37,633 not complicated at all. it starts from the left side the 1322 00:50:37,633 --> 00:50:40,200 starts from the left side the fuel of the rocket are in the 1323 00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:41,966 fuel of the rocket are in the six qualities and well 1324 00:50:41,966 --> 00:50:42,767 six qualities and well functioning market and then we 1325 00:50:42,767 --> 00:50:45,967 functioning market and then we go from this. More and more in 1326 00:50:45,967 --> 00:50:48,633 go from this. More and more in detail so first you’ve got the 1327 00:50:48,633 --> 00:50:50,600 detail so first you’ve got the A D Q’s we assess where the 1328 00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:52,333 A D Q’s we assess where the gaps that our countries are 1329 00:50:52,333 --> 00:50:53,834 gaps that our countries are facing in terms of building 1330 00:50:53,834 --> 00:50:56,233 facing in terms of building markets that have the six 1331 00:50:56,233 --> 00:50:57,834 markets that have the six qualities and we do this 1332 00:50:57,834 --> 00:50:58,767 qualities and we do this quantitatively. we published it 1333 00:50:58,767 --> 00:51:01,166 quantitatively. we published it every year. we call this 1334 00:51:01,166 --> 00:51:02,599 every year. we call this assessment of transition 1335 00:51:02,599 --> 00:51:04,332 assessment of transition qualities and this forms the 1336 00:51:04,332 --> 00:51:05,832 qualities and this forms the basis for us to dig deeper and 1337 00:51:05,832 --> 00:51:07,633 basis for us to dig deeper and start thinking country by 1338 00:51:07,633 --> 00:51:08,498 start thinking country by country. Okay. We know what the 1339 00:51:08,498 --> 00:51:09,599 country. Okay. We know what the caps are, but what are really 1340 00:51:09,599 --> 00:51:10,898 caps are, but what are really the 23 things that are 1341 00:51:10,898 --> 00:51:12,498 the 23 things that are preventing this country from 1342 00:51:12,498 --> 00:51:14,532 preventing this country from fulfilling their. In terms of 1343 00:51:14,532 --> 00:51:16,632 fulfilling their. In terms of building and market economy 1344 00:51:16,632 --> 00:51:19,366 building and market economy that has the characters we love 1345 00:51:19,366 --> 00:51:21,432 that has the characters we love and that is the basis for the 1346 00:51:21,432 --> 00:51:22,898 and that is the basis for the next step the country of the E 1347 00:51:22,898 --> 00:51:24,199 next step the country of the E B R D, which is where we 1348 00:51:24,199 --> 00:51:26,766 B R D, which is where we present to the board. what we 1349 00:51:26,766 --> 00:51:28,332 present to the board. what we commit to do and support the 1350 00:51:28,332 --> 00:51:29,832 commit to do and support the countries in doing for five 1351 00:51:29,832 --> 00:51:31,566 countries in doing for five years or so and now you get 1352 00:51:31,566 --> 00:51:33,066 years or so and now you get more and more into details on 1353 00:51:33,066 --> 00:51:33,832 more and more into details on the back of the country 1354 00:51:33,832 --> 00:51:35,032 the back of the country strategies. This is really 1355 00:51:35,032 --> 00:51:36,498 strategies. This is really where we start working, we 1356 00:51:36,498 --> 00:51:38,766 where we start working, we start deploying both the 1357 00:51:38,766 --> 00:51:39,565 start deploying both the investments of the Bank and 1358 00:51:39,565 --> 00:51:41,132 investments of the Bank and using the balance sheet of the 1359 00:51:41,132 --> 00:51:43,032 using the balance sheet of the Bank and we start engaging on 1360 00:51:43,032 --> 00:51:45,232 Bank and we start engaging on policy using the other capital 1361 00:51:45,232 --> 00:51:46,632 policy using the other capital of the Bank or knowledge and 1362 00:51:46,632 --> 00:51:49,698 of the Bank or knowledge and experience. And this is really 1363 00:51:49,698 --> 00:51:51,298 experience. And this is really the core the heart the engine 1364 00:51:51,298 --> 00:51:53,066 the core the heart the engine of that of that rocket, if you 1365 00:51:53,066 --> 00:51:55,366 of that of that rocket, if you want and the last parts are C 1366 00:51:55,366 --> 00:51:56,766 want and the last parts are C SDR, the country started to be 1367 00:51:56,766 --> 00:51:57,565 SDR, the country started to be delivery reviews and our 1368 00:51:57,565 --> 00:51:59,066 delivery reviews and our monitoring violation system. 1369 00:51:59,066 --> 00:52:01,166 monitoring violation system. This is how we evaluate and 1370 00:52:01,166 --> 00:52:03,066 This is how we evaluate and learn from what we do from the 1371 00:52:03,066 --> 00:52:04,599 learn from what we do from the operations we do and there’s a 1372 00:52:04,599 --> 00:52:07,633 operations we do and there’s a nice out of that feedback into 1373 00:52:07,633 --> 00:52:09,432 nice out of that feedback into lessons learned that help us do 1374 00:52:09,432 --> 00:52:11,432 lessons learned that help us do things better The next time 1375 00:52:11,432 --> 00:52:13,266 things better The next time we’ll launch a rocket so that a 1376 00:52:13,266 --> 00:52:15,298 we’ll launch a rocket so that a little bit describes what what 1377 00:52:15,298 --> 00:52:18,566 little bit describes what what we how we interpret and. 1378 00:52:18,566 --> 00:52:19,999 we how we interpret and. Qualities sort of work their 1379 00:52:19,999 --> 00:52:21,698 Qualities sort of work their way their way through the 1380 00:52:21,698 --> 00:52:23,033 way their way through the activities of the D, R T. So 1381 00:52:23,033 --> 00:52:25,666 activities of the D, R T. So let me know go to issues of how 1382 00:52:25,666 --> 00:52:27,565 let me know go to issues of how we measure transition impacting 1383 00:52:27,565 --> 00:52:31,032 we measure transition impacting our we incentivize our bankers 1384 00:52:31,032 --> 00:52:33,866 our we incentivize our bankers and our policy engagement 1385 00:52:33,866 --> 00:52:36,366 and our policy engagement experts to work on what matters 1386 00:52:36,366 --> 00:52:39,032 experts to work on what matters most we use a very simple thing 1387 00:52:39,032 --> 00:52:40,365 most we use a very simple thing called the T I called the 1388 00:52:40,365 --> 00:52:41,965 called the T I called the position in impact score. This 1389 00:52:41,965 --> 00:52:45,132 position in impact score. This is a a a score that is pulled 1390 00:52:45,132 --> 00:52:46,365 is a a a score that is pulled together looking at three or 1391 00:52:46,365 --> 00:52:47,565 together looking at three or four different things first of 1392 00:52:47,565 --> 00:52:49,999 four different things first of all. These are the blue boxes 1393 00:52:49,999 --> 00:52:53,599 all. These are the blue boxes around that I score chart that 1394 00:52:53,599 --> 00:52:55,233 around that I score chart that you’ll see on the left side of 1395 00:52:55,233 --> 00:52:56,898 you’ll see on the left side of your screen. First of all we 1396 00:52:56,898 --> 00:52:58,898 your screen. First of all we select what this project is 1397 00:52:58,898 --> 00:53:00,498 select what this project is really about what qualities 1398 00:53:00,498 --> 00:53:01,832 really about what qualities what transition quality is this 1399 00:53:01,832 --> 00:53:03,399 what transition quality is this project really really about we 1400 00:53:03,399 --> 00:53:05,032 project really really about we select two transition qualities 1401 00:53:05,032 --> 00:53:07,332 select two transition qualities per project and we define what 1402 00:53:07,332 --> 00:53:08,898 per project and we define what is the level of ambition of a 1403 00:53:08,898 --> 00:53:12,498 is the level of ambition of a project of an investment in 1404 00:53:12,498 --> 00:53:14,033 project of an investment in closing the gaps in this two 1405 00:53:14,033 --> 00:53:16,032 closing the gaps in this two qualities we then look at it 1406 00:53:16,032 --> 00:53:18,599 qualities we then look at it and say well is this project. 1407 00:53:18,599 --> 00:53:21,066 and say well is this project. In a country that has a large 1408 00:53:21,066 --> 00:53:22,599 In a country that has a large transition gap in this 1409 00:53:22,599 --> 00:53:24,366 transition gap in this particular area or a small 1410 00:53:24,366 --> 00:53:26,366 particular area or a small transition gap and we adjust 1411 00:53:26,366 --> 00:53:28,065 transition gap and we adjust the TI score, giving a higher 1412 00:53:28,065 --> 00:53:29,298 the TI score, giving a higher score for projects that will 1413 00:53:29,298 --> 00:53:31,766 score for projects that will focus on qualities in countries 1414 00:53:31,766 --> 00:53:32,498 focus on qualities in countries where the gaps are large 1415 00:53:32,498 --> 00:53:34,898 where the gaps are large because we want to go first 1416 00:53:34,898 --> 00:53:38,632 because we want to go first with the problem is bigger. we 1417 00:53:38,632 --> 00:53:40,065 with the problem is bigger. we are then ask ourselves. okay. 1418 00:53:40,065 --> 00:53:40,999 are then ask ourselves. okay. Well, that’s all nice and good, 1419 00:53:40,999 --> 00:53:43,032 Well, that’s all nice and good, but isn’t it in line with what 1420 00:53:43,032 --> 00:53:43,832 but isn’t it in line with what we said we would do in this 1421 00:53:43,832 --> 00:53:46,498 we said we would do in this country in the country strategy 1422 00:53:46,498 --> 00:53:48,132 country in the country strategy is in line with the priority. 1423 00:53:48,132 --> 00:53:49,666 is in line with the priority. Laid out in the country, so we 1424 00:53:49,666 --> 00:53:51,866 Laid out in the country, so we know that there’s a market 1425 00:53:51,866 --> 00:53:52,498 know that there’s a market projects we work with the 1426 00:53:52,498 --> 00:53:53,932 projects we work with the private sector sometimes when 1427 00:53:53,932 --> 00:53:55,566 private sector sometimes when running into a project will be 1428 00:53:55,566 --> 00:53:56,366 running into a project will be locking up the market will 1429 00:53:56,366 --> 00:53:57,932 locking up the market will provide us with choices and we 1430 00:53:57,932 --> 00:53:59,866 provide us with choices and we can choose a project that is 1431 00:53:59,866 --> 00:54:00,498 can choose a project that is perfectly aligned in the 1432 00:54:00,498 --> 00:54:01,966 perfectly aligned in the countryside, but sometimes the 1433 00:54:01,966 --> 00:54:04,232 countryside, but sometimes the market does not offer us those 1434 00:54:04,232 --> 00:54:05,832 market does not offer us those many opportunities to invest so 1435 00:54:05,832 --> 00:54:08,232 many opportunities to invest so we need to incentivize so the I 1436 00:54:08,232 --> 00:54:09,932 we need to incentivize so the I score will go up would be 1437 00:54:09,932 --> 00:54:12,033 score will go up would be higher if the project is 1438 00:54:12,033 --> 00:54:13,832 higher if the project is perfectly aligned with the 1439 00:54:13,832 --> 00:54:16,065 perfectly aligned with the country strategy. priorities 1440 00:54:16,065 --> 00:54:18,599 country strategy. priorities and then we ask. That we’re 1441 00:54:18,599 --> 00:54:20,366 and then we ask. That we’re using financial instruments 1442 00:54:20,366 --> 00:54:21,565 using financial instruments that are particularly 1443 00:54:21,565 --> 00:54:23,265 that are particularly meaningful because besides the 1444 00:54:23,265 --> 00:54:25,432 meaningful because besides the impact of the use of proceeds 1445 00:54:25,432 --> 00:54:26,833 impact of the use of proceeds of that project, they 1446 00:54:26,833 --> 00:54:28,498 of that project, they demonstrate that particular 1447 00:54:28,498 --> 00:54:29,900 demonstrate that particular element of the financial 1448 00:54:29,900 --> 00:54:31,566 element of the financial markets work well, for example 1449 00:54:31,566 --> 00:54:32,632 markets work well, for example in equity investment in a 1450 00:54:32,632 --> 00:54:33,832 in equity investment in a country that is very little 1451 00:54:33,832 --> 00:54:35,165 country that is very little equity activities that yes, we 1452 00:54:35,165 --> 00:54:36,766 equity activities that yes, we have an impact because of the 1453 00:54:36,766 --> 00:54:37,766 have an impact because of the use of proceeds of that 1454 00:54:37,766 --> 00:54:39,265 use of proceeds of that investment, but also because it 1455 00:54:39,265 --> 00:54:40,498 investment, but also because it demonstrates that you can 1456 00:54:40,498 --> 00:54:41,965 demonstrates that you can invest into equity in that 1457 00:54:41,965 --> 00:54:43,032 invest into equity in that country. so it has an 1458 00:54:43,032 --> 00:54:44,965 country. so it has an additional value all of that 1459 00:54:44,965 --> 00:54:46,365 additional value all of that forms a transition in that 1460 00:54:46,365 --> 00:54:49,100 forms a transition in that school. It’s built to 1461 00:54:49,100 --> 00:54:50,833 school. It’s built to incentivize our bankers to 1462 00:54:50,833 --> 00:54:51,432 incentivize our bankers to bring projects that will have 1463 00:54:51,432 --> 00:54:53,032 bring projects that will have the characteristics we want to 1464 00:54:53,032 --> 00:54:55,233 the characteristics we want to see to close the gaps as 1465 00:54:55,233 --> 00:54:58,066 see to close the gaps as quickly as possible. I don’t 1466 00:54:58,066 --> 00:54:59,565 quickly as possible. I don’t want to go through the details 1467 00:54:59,565 --> 00:55:01,032 want to go through the details of this, but this is just to 1468 00:55:01,032 --> 00:55:02,066 of this, but this is just to say that we’ve developed over 1469 00:55:02,066 --> 00:55:03,165 say that we’ve developed over the last three or four years, 1470 00:55:03,165 --> 00:55:05,532 the last three or four years, something called Toms, which is 1471 00:55:05,532 --> 00:55:08,300 something called Toms, which is basically our version of a 1472 00:55:08,300 --> 00:55:11,266 basically our version of a which is what the presented on 1473 00:55:11,266 --> 00:55:12,333 which is what the presented on before, which is an automatic 1474 00:55:12,333 --> 00:55:13,900 before, which is an automatic Altima automatic system to 1475 00:55:13,900 --> 00:55:15,565 Altima automatic system to assess project is automatically 1476 00:55:15,565 --> 00:55:16,632 assess project is automatically as possible along the lines 1477 00:55:16,632 --> 00:55:19,298 as possible along the lines that I. Just before, but the 1478 00:55:19,298 --> 00:55:21,565 that I. Just before, but the the the content doesn’t change, 1479 00:55:21,565 --> 00:55:23,100 the the content doesn’t change, it’s just simply to describe 1480 00:55:23,100 --> 00:55:25,966 it’s just simply to describe the IT system. We put in place 1481 00:55:25,966 --> 00:55:28,066 the IT system. We put in place and we’ve recently launched 1482 00:55:28,066 --> 00:55:30,067 and we’ve recently launched now. let me go to the latter 1483 00:55:30,067 --> 00:55:31,566 now. let me go to the latter part once we have said with the 1484 00:55:31,566 --> 00:55:33,100 part once we have said with the project is going to be how do 1485 00:55:33,100 --> 00:55:34,832 project is going to be how do we monitor whether this project 1486 00:55:34,832 --> 00:55:36,466 we monitor whether this project is actually going to do what 1487 00:55:36,466 --> 00:55:37,966 is actually going to do what the it says in the 10. what we 1488 00:55:37,966 --> 00:55:40,632 the it says in the 10. what we promised we would do so in year 1489 00:55:40,632 --> 00:55:42,766 promised we would do so in year zero. This is where that TI 1490 00:55:42,766 --> 00:55:45,100 zero. This is where that TI score is produced indicators 1491 00:55:45,100 --> 00:55:46,765 score is produced indicators are assigned to the projects so 1492 00:55:46,765 --> 00:55:50,866 are assigned to the projects so that we. Variables to monitor 1493 00:55:50,866 --> 00:55:52,999 that we. Variables to monitor around the activities that 1494 00:55:52,999 --> 00:55:54,566 around the activities that we’ve said that the project is 1495 00:55:54,566 --> 00:55:56,366 we’ve said that the project is going to fulfill that level of 1496 00:55:56,366 --> 00:55:57,965 going to fulfill that level of ambition in the qualities We 1497 00:55:57,965 --> 00:55:59,032 ambition in the qualities We talked about earlier and this 1498 00:55:59,032 --> 00:56:00,632 talked about earlier and this is where by the way together 1499 00:56:00,632 --> 00:56:02,232 is where by the way together with the ISC and others who’ve 1500 00:56:02,232 --> 00:56:04,332 with the ISC and others who’ve been working very hard on using 1501 00:56:04,332 --> 00:56:07,032 been working very hard on using the same indicators when we try 1502 00:56:07,032 --> 00:56:08,433 the same indicators when we try to do the same thing in project 1503 00:56:08,433 --> 00:56:10,700 to do the same thing in project so that our work is more 1504 00:56:10,700 --> 00:56:12,300 so that our work is more compatible and frankly, 1505 00:56:12,300 --> 00:56:13,133 compatible and frankly, sometimes it also helps our 1506 00:56:13,133 --> 00:56:15,032 sometimes it also helps our clients when they get 1507 00:56:15,032 --> 00:56:15,832 clients when they get investments and money from the 1508 00:56:15,832 --> 00:56:18,898 investments and money from the E D, R D and the IFC. Others to 1509 00:56:18,898 --> 00:56:20,498 E D, R D and the IFC. Others to collect the same data to 1510 00:56:20,498 --> 00:56:22,099 collect the same data to monitor as it becomes cheaper 1511 00:56:22,099 --> 00:56:23,432 monitor as it becomes cheaper for them and easy for us. so we 1512 00:56:23,432 --> 00:56:26,898 for them and easy for us. so we set the indicators and then 1513 00:56:26,898 --> 00:56:28,498 set the indicators and then little by little time goes by 1514 00:56:28,498 --> 00:56:29,965 little by little time goes by we ask clients and the teams 1515 00:56:29,965 --> 00:56:32,366 we ask clients and the teams that PB RD to report on 1516 00:56:32,366 --> 00:56:33,632 that PB RD to report on progress through life of the 1517 00:56:33,632 --> 00:56:35,432 progress through life of the project and progress is 1518 00:56:35,432 --> 00:56:37,698 project and progress is compared to the commitments to 1519 00:56:37,698 --> 00:56:39,432 compared to the commitments to what we said the project have 1520 00:56:39,432 --> 00:56:41,565 what we said the project have achieved so by year one, we set 1521 00:56:41,565 --> 00:56:42,733 achieved so by year one, we set the project with the achieved 1522 00:56:42,733 --> 00:56:43,566 the project with the achieved something in year one we’re 1523 00:56:43,566 --> 00:56:44,498 something in year one we’re going and collect the 1524 00:56:44,498 --> 00:56:45,700 going and collect the information to see if that has 1525 00:56:45,700 --> 00:56:47,167 information to see if that has been achieved and this forms 1526 00:56:47,167 --> 00:56:49,200 been achieved and this forms something that. Portfolio 1527 00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:51,900 something that. Portfolio transition, which is nothing 1528 00:56:51,900 --> 00:56:53,200 transition, which is nothing else but a score that tells you 1529 00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:55,033 else but a score that tells you what is the realize the impact 1530 00:56:55,033 --> 00:56:56,033 what is the realize the impact of the project we’ve done. and 1531 00:56:56,033 --> 00:56:57,700 of the project we’ve done. and of course, we’re very happy if 1532 00:56:57,700 --> 00:56:59,766 of course, we’re very happy if they realize the impact is 1533 00:56:59,766 --> 00:57:01,432 they realize the impact is equal or higher than the impact 1534 00:57:01,432 --> 00:57:02,633 equal or higher than the impact of the project would have had 1535 00:57:02,633 --> 00:57:04,500 of the project would have had exactly and that’s how we do 1536 00:57:04,500 --> 00:57:07,033 exactly and that’s how we do our monta so fairly 1537 00:57:07,033 --> 00:57:07,900 our monta so fairly straightforward, but I want to 1538 00:57:07,900 --> 00:57:09,500 straightforward, but I want to share with you a little bit how 1539 00:57:09,500 --> 00:57:10,600 share with you a little bit how we approach this and for this 1540 00:57:10,600 --> 00:57:12,466 we approach this and for this as well we have now an IT 1541 00:57:12,466 --> 00:57:13,500 as well we have now an IT system that does it 1542 00:57:13,500 --> 00:57:15,034 system that does it automatically prompts banks and 1543 00:57:15,034 --> 00:57:16,000 automatically prompts banks and our clients dramatically when 1544 00:57:16,000 --> 00:57:19,367 our clients dramatically when data aquired. And allows us to 1545 00:57:19,367 --> 00:57:21,167 data aquired. And allows us to calculate life score or how the 1546 00:57:21,167 --> 00:57:22,767 calculate life score or how the portfolio of the Bank is doing 1547 00:57:22,767 --> 00:57:25,066 portfolio of the Bank is doing whether it’s on track or not to 1548 00:57:25,066 --> 00:57:26,000 whether it’s on track or not to deliver at the portfolio level. 1549 00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:27,766 deliver at the portfolio level. What we said we would deliver 1550 00:57:27,766 --> 00:57:29,200 What we said we would deliver Partter project, but that may 1551 00:57:29,200 --> 00:57:33,266 Partter project, but that may then move to additional and I’d 1552 00:57:33,266 --> 00:57:34,600 then move to additional and I’d really like the part because I 1553 00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:35,567 really like the part because I really feel that additional 1554 00:57:35,567 --> 00:57:39,133 really feel that additional goes to the very heart of what 1555 00:57:39,133 --> 00:57:40,500 goes to the very heart of what international financial 1556 00:57:40,500 --> 00:57:41,567 international financial institutions like the one I 1557 00:57:41,567 --> 00:57:43,433 institutions like the one I work for at about and we need 1558 00:57:43,433 --> 00:57:45,266 work for at about and we need to take it very seriously. It’s 1559 00:57:45,266 --> 00:57:47,133 to take it very seriously. It’s an absolute anchor. It’s a 1560 00:57:47,133 --> 00:57:49,033 an absolute anchor. It’s a cornerstone of ISIS and we’ve 1561 00:57:49,033 --> 00:57:52,066 cornerstone of ISIS and we’ve got to be a serious. As 1562 00:57:52,066 --> 00:57:54,333 got to be a serious. As possible, so I fully agree with 1563 00:57:54,333 --> 00:57:55,500 possible, so I fully agree with Hanson, this is not a surprise 1564 00:57:55,500 --> 00:57:57,266 Hanson, this is not a surprise on the definition of what is 1565 00:57:57,266 --> 00:57:59,866 on the definition of what is about so we really think about 1566 00:57:59,866 --> 00:58:01,401 about so we really think about functionality as an input into 1567 00:58:01,401 --> 00:58:02,766 functionality as an input into the project. What is that we’re 1568 00:58:02,766 --> 00:58:04,365 the project. What is that we’re putting into the project that 1569 00:58:04,365 --> 00:58:06,366 putting into the project that nobody else can put in a 1570 00:58:06,366 --> 00:58:07,599 nobody else can put in a commercial Bank will be able to 1571 00:58:07,599 --> 00:58:09,432 commercial Bank will be able to put sometimes we even think 1572 00:58:09,432 --> 00:58:11,032 put sometimes we even think about the inputs that the 1573 00:58:11,032 --> 00:58:12,433 about the inputs that the client is putting into this 1574 00:58:12,433 --> 00:58:13,432 client is putting into this project that they wouldn’t have 1575 00:58:13,432 --> 00:58:16,032 project that they wouldn’t have put if you hadn’t been for our 1576 00:58:16,032 --> 00:58:18,498 put if you hadn’t been for our presence in that deal and we 1577 00:58:18,498 --> 00:58:19,698 presence in that deal and we convinced the client to put 1578 00:58:19,698 --> 00:58:20,632 convinced the client to put something into the project to 1579 00:58:20,632 --> 00:58:22,365 something into the project to something additional that they 1580 00:58:22,365 --> 00:58:23,298 something additional that they simply would have not done if 1581 00:58:23,298 --> 00:58:26,199 simply would have not done if that project had been. By a 1582 00:58:26,199 --> 00:58:28,099 that project had been. By a commercial Bank, so it’s very 1583 00:58:28,099 --> 00:58:29,500 commercial Bank, so it’s very much an input while the 1584 00:58:29,500 --> 00:58:30,366 much an input while the transition impact what I 1585 00:58:30,366 --> 00:58:32,232 transition impact what I described earlier is the 1586 00:58:32,232 --> 00:58:33,933 described earlier is the output. What do we want to 1587 00:58:33,933 --> 00:58:34,765 output. What do we want to achieve with that product? so 1588 00:58:34,765 --> 00:58:37,032 achieve with that product? so with distinguish very much 1589 00:58:37,032 --> 00:58:40,099 with distinguish very much between input and output 1590 00:58:40,099 --> 00:58:42,067 between input and output position impact. and then, of 1591 00:58:42,067 --> 00:58:43,999 position impact. and then, of course this to get leads to the 1592 00:58:43,999 --> 00:58:45,866 course this to get leads to the systemic impact we want to see 1593 00:58:45,866 --> 00:58:46,999 systemic impact we want to see at the market level with the 1594 00:58:46,999 --> 00:58:49,633 at the market level with the economy economy level. so I 1595 00:58:49,633 --> 00:58:50,366 economy economy level. so I don’t need to bore you with 1596 00:58:50,366 --> 00:58:52,599 don’t need to bore you with what’s on the slide you know 1597 00:58:52,599 --> 00:58:53,698 what’s on the slide you know the commitments made both in 1598 00:58:53,698 --> 00:58:57,432 the commitments made both in the articles This article 1599 00:58:57,432 --> 00:59:00,766 the articles This article establishing the Bank and by 1600 00:59:00,766 --> 00:59:03,265 establishing the Bank and by Mda B’s, but I want to I want 1601 00:59:03,265 --> 00:59:06,766 Mda B’s, but I want to I want to point out that life that 1602 00:59:06,766 --> 00:59:07,698 to point out that life that I’ve seen with distinguish 1603 00:59:07,698 --> 00:59:09,165 I’ve seen with distinguish between and this is the box 1604 00:59:09,165 --> 00:59:11,298 between and this is the box that the right bottom corner of 1605 00:59:11,298 --> 00:59:12,666 that the right bottom corner of your screen. Now, there are two 1606 00:59:12,666 --> 00:59:14,232 your screen. Now, there are two types of additional we consider 1607 00:59:14,232 --> 00:59:17,132 types of additional we consider financial and non financial. 1608 00:59:17,132 --> 00:59:21,866 financial and non financial. additional now The Additionally 1609 00:59:21,866 --> 00:59:23,298 additional now The Additionally concept is come under a lot of 1610 00:59:23,298 --> 00:59:24,333 concept is come under a lot of pressure at the BD like in 1611 00:59:24,333 --> 00:59:25,666 pressure at the BD like in other institutions recently and 1612 00:59:25,666 --> 00:59:27,432 other institutions recently and we were asked to review the way 1613 00:59:27,432 --> 00:59:29,965 we were asked to review the way in which we monitor and report 1614 00:59:29,965 --> 00:59:31,432 in which we monitor and report and additionally, so we 1615 00:59:31,432 --> 00:59:32,898 and additionally, so we recently went through something 1616 00:59:32,898 --> 00:59:35,032 recently went through something called the enhanced approach to 1617 00:59:35,032 --> 00:59:36,498 called the enhanced approach to traditional in which we look to 1618 00:59:36,498 --> 00:59:37,633 traditional in which we look to find a more structured that 1619 00:59:37,633 --> 00:59:39,165 find a more structured that transparent assessment now, the 1620 00:59:39,165 --> 00:59:40,199 transparent assessment now, the first thing I want to say is 1621 00:59:40,199 --> 00:59:41,032 first thing I want to say is that we came to the same 1622 00:59:41,032 --> 00:59:42,833 that we came to the same conclusions that the IFC has 1623 00:59:42,833 --> 00:59:44,965 conclusions that the IFC has come to that. additional 1624 00:59:44,965 --> 00:59:46,632 come to that. additional remains a judgment. It is 1625 00:59:46,632 --> 00:59:49,032 remains a judgment. It is extremely difficult to score it 1626 00:59:49,032 --> 00:59:50,498 extremely difficult to score it quantitatively and why is that 1627 00:59:50,498 --> 00:59:52,898 quantitatively and why is that so? Fundamentally because 1628 00:59:52,898 --> 00:59:54,067 so? Fundamentally because additionally, if you think 1629 00:59:54,067 --> 00:59:56,700 additionally, if you think about it basically tells you 1630 00:59:56,700 --> 00:59:59,032 about it basically tells you that without your presence, 1631 00:59:59,032 --> 01:00:00,100 that without your presence, this deal will not have been 1632 01:00:00,100 --> 01:00:02,766 this deal will not have been possible either for financial 1633 01:00:02,766 --> 01:00:04,266 possible either for financial reasons they wouldn’t have been 1634 01:00:04,266 --> 01:00:05,032 reasons they wouldn’t have been the same financial instrument 1635 01:00:05,032 --> 01:00:06,733 the same financial instrument or for non-financial reasons 1636 01:00:06,733 --> 01:00:08,433 or for non-financial reasons what this project would have 1637 01:00:08,433 --> 01:00:09,866 what this project would have the inputs of this project 1638 01:00:09,866 --> 01:00:11,298 the inputs of this project received and the for its 1639 01:00:11,298 --> 01:00:13,298 received and the for its potential to impact would not 1640 01:00:13,298 --> 01:00:14,100 potential to impact would not have been possible without the 1641 01:00:14,100 --> 01:00:16,332 have been possible without the band so the whole concept of 1642 01:00:16,332 --> 01:00:17,999 band so the whole concept of nationality is based on a 1643 01:00:17,999 --> 01:00:19,032 nationality is based on a counterfactual, which is not 1644 01:00:19,032 --> 01:00:21,298 counterfactual, which is not observable. we can’t. What 1645 01:00:21,298 --> 01:00:22,732 observable. we can’t. What would have happened in the 1646 01:00:22,732 --> 01:00:25,100 would have happened in the absence of our presence in that 1647 01:00:25,100 --> 01:00:26,032 absence of our presence in that deal, we wouldn’t be able to 1648 01:00:26,032 --> 01:00:27,832 deal, we wouldn’t be able to say factually whether the 1649 01:00:27,832 --> 01:00:29,100 say factually whether the client would have done the same 1650 01:00:29,100 --> 01:00:30,599 client would have done the same things they have done if 1651 01:00:30,599 --> 01:00:32,066 things they have done if somebody else had finances that 1652 01:00:32,066 --> 01:00:33,432 somebody else had finances that project so it needs to be a 1653 01:00:33,432 --> 01:00:36,100 project so it needs to be a judgment and because this is 1654 01:00:36,100 --> 01:00:38,132 judgment and because this is the judgment we don’t really 1655 01:00:38,132 --> 01:00:39,866 the judgment we don’t really believe that this can be 1656 01:00:39,866 --> 01:00:41,432 believe that this can be captured in a score, but we do 1657 01:00:41,432 --> 01:00:43,633 captured in a score, but we do believe that it can be 1658 01:00:43,633 --> 01:00:46,332 believe that it can be substantiated better in a more 1659 01:00:46,332 --> 01:00:47,799 substantiated better in a more transparent and structured way 1660 01:00:47,799 --> 01:00:49,999 transparent and structured way and we’re possible back to data 1661 01:00:49,999 --> 01:00:51,766 and we’re possible back to data and evidence so in this 1662 01:00:51,766 --> 01:00:52,532 and evidence so in this enhanced the approach to 1663 01:00:52,532 --> 01:00:54,333 enhanced the approach to traditional we’ve divided our 1664 01:00:54,333 --> 01:00:55,933 traditional we’ve divided our deals in two groups, the groups 1665 01:00:55,933 --> 01:00:58,099 deals in two groups, the groups in which traditional. Obvious 1666 01:00:58,099 --> 01:01:00,566 in which traditional. Obvious It’s very clear this is because 1667 01:01:00,566 --> 01:01:02,333 It’s very clear this is because more often than not these are 1668 01:01:02,333 --> 01:01:03,165 more often than not these are deals in countries where 1669 01:01:03,165 --> 01:01:04,898 deals in countries where financial markets are very thin 1670 01:01:04,898 --> 01:01:06,498 financial markets are very thin when they’re simply is no 1671 01:01:06,498 --> 01:01:08,799 when they’re simply is no financing available of the 1672 01:01:08,799 --> 01:01:09,399 financing available of the characteristics we have and 1673 01:01:09,399 --> 01:01:11,665 characteristics we have and therefore we don’t require that 1674 01:01:11,665 --> 01:01:13,266 therefore we don’t require that much more information, but 1675 01:01:13,266 --> 01:01:15,032 much more information, but there are many cases in which 1676 01:01:15,032 --> 01:01:17,132 there are many cases in which nationality is less clear 1677 01:01:17,132 --> 01:01:18,766 nationality is less clear either because this is an 1678 01:01:18,766 --> 01:01:19,799 either because this is an advanced country where there 1679 01:01:19,799 --> 01:01:21,565 advanced country where there are very more of thriving 1680 01:01:21,565 --> 01:01:23,632 are very more of thriving financial markets or because we 1681 01:01:23,632 --> 01:01:25,133 financial markets or because we are financing a company which 1682 01:01:25,133 --> 01:01:26,498 are financing a company which is financially very solid, They 1683 01:01:26,498 --> 01:01:30,232 is financially very solid, They may have a parent and a. Which 1684 01:01:30,232 --> 01:01:31,666 may have a parent and a. Which country that is it would be 1685 01:01:31,666 --> 01:01:34,199 country that is it would be able to support to support 1686 01:01:34,199 --> 01:01:35,298 able to support to support directly the operations in this 1687 01:01:35,298 --> 01:01:37,332 directly the operations in this country. So, in this cases we 1688 01:01:37,332 --> 01:01:39,032 country. So, in this cases we have a number of triggers that 1689 01:01:39,032 --> 01:01:41,165 have a number of triggers that will make us that will make us 1690 01:01:41,165 --> 01:01:43,666 will make us that will make us look into this project, deeper 1691 01:01:43,666 --> 01:01:46,365 look into this project, deeper and ask our colleagues in 1692 01:01:46,365 --> 01:01:47,965 and ask our colleagues in banking and credit and Treasury 1693 01:01:47,965 --> 01:01:50,833 banking and credit and Treasury to provide more evidence of 1694 01:01:50,833 --> 01:01:52,999 to provide more evidence of additionally for this 1695 01:01:52,999 --> 01:01:53,600 additionally for this particular cases now the 1696 01:01:53,600 --> 01:01:55,432 particular cases now the following is lighter, I prepare 1697 01:01:55,432 --> 01:01:56,632 following is lighter, I prepare you the very fixedly so you 1698 01:01:56,632 --> 01:01:57,600 you the very fixedly so you don’t need to look at the all 1699 01:01:57,600 --> 01:01:59,766 don’t need to look at the all the details. Tells you a little 1700 01:01:59,766 --> 01:02:02,632 the details. Tells you a little bit about how the kitchen works 1701 01:02:02,632 --> 01:02:06,432 bit about how the kitchen works at the BRD in terms of the type 1702 01:02:06,432 --> 01:02:07,966 at the BRD in terms of the type of financial and non-financial 1703 01:02:07,966 --> 01:02:11,932 of financial and non-financial functionality that we help our 1704 01:02:11,932 --> 01:02:13,066 functionality that we help our banker strategy credit 1705 01:02:13,066 --> 01:02:14,898 banker strategy credit officials with when they have 1706 01:02:14,898 --> 01:02:17,165 officials with when they have to describe why this project is 1707 01:02:17,165 --> 01:02:20,033 to describe why this project is so it looks at financial for 1708 01:02:20,033 --> 01:02:22,498 so it looks at financial for instance of finance structure 1709 01:02:22,498 --> 01:02:23,833 instance of finance structure is the thinner different than 1710 01:02:23,833 --> 01:02:25,432 is the thinner different than what the market offers is their 1711 01:02:25,432 --> 01:02:27,665 what the market offers is their volume or are we offering local 1712 01:02:27,665 --> 01:02:28,365 volume or are we offering local currency the conditions that 1713 01:02:28,365 --> 01:02:29,432 currency the conditions that otherwise wouldn’t be available 1714 01:02:29,432 --> 01:02:34,632 otherwise wouldn’t be available in the market. we Laing others 1715 01:02:34,632 --> 01:02:35,865 in the market. we Laing others because there is a gap in 1716 01:02:35,865 --> 01:02:37,267 because there is a gap in financing that can’t be met by 1717 01:02:37,267 --> 01:02:38,700 financing that can’t be met by anybody else and so on or 1718 01:02:38,700 --> 01:02:40,898 anybody else and so on or because of the in the nature of 1719 01:02:40,898 --> 01:02:43,733 because of the in the nature of finance structure or simply by 1720 01:02:43,733 --> 01:02:44,898 finance structure or simply by the type of instrument, which 1721 01:02:44,898 --> 01:02:46,365 the type of instrument, which is not available in the market 1722 01:02:46,365 --> 01:02:48,867 is not available in the market PT private equity or perhaps 1723 01:02:48,867 --> 01:02:50,199 PT private equity or perhaps because we’re able we’re able 1724 01:02:50,199 --> 01:02:52,465 because we’re able we’re able because of our presence to 1725 01:02:52,465 --> 01:02:53,298 because of our presence to mobilize more money for the 1726 01:02:53,298 --> 01:02:54,366 mobilize more money for the client than anybody else would 1727 01:02:54,366 --> 01:02:55,799 client than anybody else would so these are some examples of 1728 01:02:55,799 --> 01:02:58,199 so these are some examples of the type of financial on the 1729 01:02:58,199 --> 01:02:59,833 the type of financial on the financial side. This is going 1730 01:02:59,833 --> 01:03:02,032 financial side. This is going to help on those deals where 1731 01:03:02,032 --> 01:03:03,733 to help on those deals where there is not clear to come up 1732 01:03:03,733 --> 01:03:07,032 there is not clear to come up with the right. Are we offering 1733 01:03:07,032 --> 01:03:09,298 with the right. Are we offering some risk mitigation factors 1734 01:03:09,298 --> 01:03:11,832 some risk mitigation factors because of the creditor is it 1735 01:03:11,832 --> 01:03:13,667 because of the creditor is it the long-term relationship with 1736 01:03:13,667 --> 01:03:14,700 the long-term relationship with the client that makes them 1737 01:03:14,700 --> 01:03:15,699 the client that makes them trust us more than they would 1738 01:03:15,699 --> 01:03:17,165 trust us more than they would trust anybody else and this 1739 01:03:17,165 --> 01:03:18,766 trust anybody else and this allows them to do things that 1740 01:03:18,766 --> 01:03:20,599 allows them to do things that otherwise they wouldn’t do and 1741 01:03:20,599 --> 01:03:22,632 otherwise they wouldn’t do and so on and and support sometimes 1742 01:03:22,632 --> 01:03:25,432 so on and and support sometimes it is simply and this is 1743 01:03:25,432 --> 01:03:27,100 it is simply and this is something that would be 1744 01:03:27,100 --> 01:03:28,066 something that would be familiar to all of the people 1745 01:03:28,066 --> 01:03:30,200 familiar to all of the people on the panel the presence of 1746 01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:33,298 on the panel the presence of the institution that reassures 1747 01:03:33,298 --> 01:03:36,366 the institution that reassures a client. in terms of the 1748 01:03:36,366 --> 01:03:38,099 a client. in terms of the solidity of that deal and the 1749 01:03:38,099 --> 01:03:41,366 solidity of that deal and the ability to if something goes 1750 01:03:41,366 --> 01:03:44,032 ability to if something goes wrong, use the weight of our 1751 01:03:44,032 --> 01:03:45,300 wrong, use the weight of our institutions to support their 1752 01:03:45,300 --> 01:03:47,766 institutions to support their cases in a moment of crisis. So 1753 01:03:47,766 --> 01:03:51,933 cases in a moment of crisis. So this is just as important. So 1754 01:03:51,933 --> 01:03:53,565 this is just as important. So let me conclude here. I hope I 1755 01:03:53,565 --> 01:03:56,232 let me conclude here. I hope I gave you an overview of what we 1756 01:03:56,232 --> 01:04:00,366 gave you an overview of what we at E B R D sort of have adopted 1757 01:04:00,366 --> 01:04:02,433 at E B R D sort of have adopted that methodology to assess 1758 01:04:02,433 --> 01:04:03,165 that methodology to assess transitioning impact and 1759 01:04:03,165 --> 01:04:04,365 transitioning impact and nationality and I would love to 1760 01:04:04,365 --> 01:04:07,298 nationality and I would love to live. To some questions as many 1761 01:04:07,298 --> 01:04:08,898 live. To some questions as many questions see your jobs and but 1762 01:04:08,898 --> 01:04:11,532 questions see your jobs and but I want one in particular to to 1763 01:04:11,532 --> 01:04:13,366 I want one in particular to to live with the panel and the 1764 01:04:13,366 --> 01:04:14,232 live with the panel and the audience, which is the one 1765 01:04:14,232 --> 01:04:15,665 audience, which is the one about jobs. I think we’re all 1766 01:04:15,665 --> 01:04:17,432 about jobs. I think we’re all coming under pressure, 1767 01:04:17,432 --> 01:04:18,898 coming under pressure, particularly in the context of 1768 01:04:18,898 --> 01:04:21,565 particularly in the context of the crisis to report on the 1769 01:04:21,565 --> 01:04:23,599 the crisis to report on the jobs that we support with our 1770 01:04:23,599 --> 01:04:25,298 jobs that we support with our investments and this of course 1771 01:04:25,298 --> 01:04:26,100 investments and this of course causes the real challenge for 1772 01:04:26,100 --> 01:04:27,965 causes the real challenge for our economists because we know 1773 01:04:27,965 --> 01:04:29,965 our economists because we know the jobs are an outcome of 1774 01:04:29,965 --> 01:04:31,633 the jobs are an outcome of market and we know there are 1775 01:04:31,633 --> 01:04:33,432 market and we know there are institutions sometimes finance 1776 01:04:33,432 --> 01:04:35,900 institutions sometimes finance investments that actually speed 1777 01:04:35,900 --> 01:04:37,698 investments that actually speed up authorization of processes 1778 01:04:37,698 --> 01:04:39,032 up authorization of processes that may reduce the number of 1779 01:04:39,032 --> 01:04:40,365 that may reduce the number of jobs while increasing the value 1780 01:04:40,365 --> 01:04:42,766 jobs while increasing the value added. Activity some other 1781 01:04:42,766 --> 01:04:44,100 added. Activity some other times we do invest in to create 1782 01:04:44,100 --> 01:04:45,965 times we do invest in to create a lot of jobs, but somehow it’s 1783 01:04:45,965 --> 01:04:46,898 a lot of jobs, but somehow it’s difficult for us to think about 1784 01:04:46,898 --> 01:04:49,298 difficult for us to think about jobs as a desirable outcomes, 1785 01:04:49,298 --> 01:04:50,199 jobs as a desirable outcomes, no matter what So we’re 1786 01:04:50,199 --> 01:04:51,799 no matter what So we’re struggling a little bit if the 1787 01:04:51,799 --> 01:04:54,433 struggling a little bit if the to think how impacting jobs can 1788 01:04:54,433 --> 01:04:55,298 to think how impacting jobs can get together and I’d love to 1789 01:04:55,298 --> 01:04:57,298 get together and I’d love to have ideas and thoughts from 1790 01:04:57,298 --> 01:04:58,898 have ideas and thoughts from other candidates and audience. 1791 01:04:58,898 --> 01:05:02,232 other candidates and audience. Thank you all. 1792 01:05:32,200 --> 01:05:35,233 So let me thank all four of 1793 01:05:35,233 --> 01:05:39,633 So let me thank all four of you. and and and for a very 1794 01:05:39,633 --> 01:05:40,200 you. and and and for a very insightful interesting 1795 01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:41,866 insightful interesting presentation and now let me let 1796 01:05:41,866 --> 01:05:44,500 presentation and now let me let me pass it forward to a school 1797 01:05:44,500 --> 01:05:46,633 me pass it forward to a school Committee to be the chair the 1798 01:05:46,633 --> 01:05:48,366 Committee to be the chair the the next session. Thank you 1799 01:05:48,366 --> 01:05:51,434 the next session. Thank you again. 1800 01:06:40,866 --> 01:06:43,300 Some ICT housekeeping this is 1801 01:06:43,300 --> 01:06:44,500 Some ICT housekeeping this is supposed to be an interactive 1802 01:06:44,500 --> 01:06:46,132 supposed to be an interactive session, meaning that you’re 1803 01:06:46,132 --> 01:06:47,966 session, meaning that you’re encouraged to ask questions to 1804 01:06:47,966 --> 01:06:49,565 encouraged to ask questions to intervene to do this 1805 01:06:49,565 --> 01:06:51,132 intervene to do this participants have two ways 1806 01:06:51,132 --> 01:06:53,533 participants have two ways either they can click on the 1807 01:06:53,533 --> 01:06:55,066 either they can click on the option, raise your hand and 1808 01:06:55,066 --> 01:06:56,232 option, raise your hand and then your camera and video will 1809 01:06:56,232 --> 01:06:57,533 then your camera and video will be activated and you’ll be able 1810 01:06:57,533 --> 01:07:00,199 be activated and you’ll be able to ask questions or you can ask 1811 01:07:00,199 --> 01:07:01,801 to ask questions or you can ask questions in the Zoom group 1812 01:07:01,801 --> 01:07:05,666 questions in the Zoom group chat. section the say of the of 1813 01:07:05,666 --> 01:07:07,300 chat. section the say of the of the screen and this will be 1814 01:07:07,300 --> 01:07:08,867 the screen and this will be visible to everyone and can be 1815 01:07:08,867 --> 01:07:10,533 visible to everyone and can be used for a very short and 1816 01:07:10,533 --> 01:07:12,034 used for a very short and precise questions if you want 1817 01:07:12,034 --> 01:07:13,367 precise questions if you want to a quick answer to some 1818 01:07:13,367 --> 01:07:17,867 to a quick answer to some issues, let us not turn. 1819 01:07:47,633 --> 01:07:50,000 Policy or immigration policy 1820 01:07:50,000 --> 01:07:52,300 Policy or immigration policy The next Speaker will be janna 1821 01:07:52,300 --> 01:07:54,533 The next Speaker will be janna Yasser from the UK based the 1822 01:07:54,533 --> 01:07:56,100 Yasser from the UK based the National Institute of Economic 1823 01:07:56,100 --> 01:07:58,300 National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which is 1824 01:07:58,300 --> 01:07:59,800 and Social Research, which is an independent think tank. 1825 01:07:59,800 --> 01:08:02,033 an independent think tank. order to see impact assessments 1826 01:08:02,033 --> 01:08:04,099 order to see impact assessments among other things. Yana is a 1827 01:08:04,099 --> 01:08:06,132 among other things. Yana is a principal economist in the 1828 01:08:06,132 --> 01:08:06,666 principal economist in the macro model that we have 1829 01:08:06,666 --> 01:08:08,866 macro model that we have focusing team and we also 1830 01:08:08,866 --> 01:08:11,699 focusing team and we also present. model Niger, which is 1831 01:08:11,699 --> 01:08:13,267 present. model Niger, which is the recently been used to 1832 01:08:13,267 --> 01:08:14,232 the recently been used to assist the impact of the carro 1833 01:08:14,232 --> 01:08:17,134 assist the impact of the carro Avis finally. Been more 1834 01:08:17,134 --> 01:08:18,600 Avis finally. Been more companion for the World Bank. 1835 01:08:18,600 --> 01:08:21,200 companion for the World Bank. We present a compilation of the 1836 01:08:21,200 --> 01:08:23,800 We present a compilation of the impact evaluations conducted by 1837 01:08:23,800 --> 01:08:26,600 impact evaluations conducted by the Bank and not only by 1838 01:08:26,600 --> 01:08:28,400 the Bank and not only by macroeconomic modeling team. It 1839 01:08:28,400 --> 01:08:29,866 macroeconomic modeling team. It will provide us with an 1840 01:08:29,866 --> 01:08:31,566 will provide us with an overview of the modeling tools 1841 01:08:31,566 --> 01:08:34,634 overview of the modeling tools available at the Bank and we 1842 01:08:34,634 --> 01:08:36,233 available at the Bank and we will get us an idea of how to 1843 01:08:36,233 --> 01:08:38,967 will get us an idea of how to get real-time data to support 1844 01:08:38,967 --> 01:08:40,367 get real-time data to support policies in the data scar’s 1845 01:08:40,367 --> 01:08:41,333 policies in the data scar’s environment such as the 1846 01:08:41,333 --> 01:08:44,000 environment such as the developing world now what are 1847 01:08:44,000 --> 01:08:45,133 developing world now what are they actually show that I would 1848 01:08:45,133 --> 01:08:46,066 they actually show that I would like all the speakers to touch 1849 01:08:46,066 --> 01:08:48,133 like all the speakers to touch on relates to the title. 1850 01:08:48,133 --> 01:08:50,700 on relates to the title. Session and notably what 1851 01:08:50,700 --> 01:08:51,966 Session and notably what additional information can your 1852 01:08:51,966 --> 01:08:53,600 additional information can your mother’s provide as opposed to 1853 01:08:53,600 --> 01:08:55,767 mother’s provide as opposed to existing Ofer impact assessment 1854 01:08:55,767 --> 01:08:58,166 existing Ofer impact assessment tools something came up on 1855 01:08:58,166 --> 01:09:01,067 tools something came up on analysis or observations and 1856 01:09:01,067 --> 01:09:03,733 analysis or observations and importantly. as such models, 1857 01:09:03,733 --> 01:09:05,966 importantly. as such models, more or less about the times of 1858 01:09:05,966 --> 01:09:07,833 more or less about the times of crisis. what the number of 1859 01:09:07,833 --> 01:09:09,298 crisis. what the number of variables and parameters 1860 01:09:09,298 --> 01:09:10,766 variables and parameters notability on technology or 1861 01:09:10,766 --> 01:09:11,900 notability on technology or consumers behavior are expected 1862 01:09:11,900 --> 01:09:13,767 consumers behavior are expected to move simultaneously and the 1863 01:09:13,767 --> 01:09:15,833 to move simultaneously and the other issue is how can this 1864 01:09:15,833 --> 01:09:17,233 other issue is how can this additional information we have 1865 01:09:17,233 --> 01:09:18,100 additional information we have for policy makers in French you 1866 01:09:18,100 --> 01:09:20,033 for policy makers in French you in their policies in which part 1867 01:09:20,033 --> 01:09:23,200 in their policies in which part of. Pauly all the models 1868 01:09:23,200 --> 01:09:25,467 of. Pauly all the models provide the most value now I 1869 01:09:25,467 --> 01:09:28,333 provide the most value now I will give the floor to the 1870 01:09:28,333 --> 01:09:28,834 will give the floor to the Andrea for the first 1871 01:09:28,834 --> 01:09:31,234 Andrea for the first presentation of graal young you 1872 01:09:31,234 --> 01:09:34,500 presentation of graal young you have before. 1873 01:09:34,666 --> 01:09:38,334 Much Francesco and that’s all 1874 01:09:38,334 --> 01:09:40,100 Much Francesco and that’s all good afternoon and thank you to 1875 01:09:40,100 --> 01:09:42,367 good afternoon and thank you to the organizers and groups in 1876 01:09:42,367 --> 01:09:44,333 the organizers and groups in this event and thank you 1877 01:09:44,333 --> 01:09:46,367 this event and thank you Francesco for sharing the 1878 01:09:46,367 --> 01:09:47,766 Francesco for sharing the session. I’ll give you a brief 1879 01:09:47,766 --> 01:09:50,100 session. I’ll give you a brief idea of why and how the a-b Uss 1880 01:09:50,100 --> 01:09:51,967 idea of why and how the a-b Uss the normal model Andre will go 1881 01:09:51,967 --> 01:09:54,100 the normal model Andre will go and beyond the use of such 1882 01:09:54,100 --> 01:09:56,233 and beyond the use of such modeling for the broader policy 1883 01:09:56,233 --> 01:09:59,434 modeling for the broader policy discussion. 1884 01:09:59,666 --> 01:10:03,165 And can you? one why 1885 01:10:03,165 --> 01:10:04,901 And can you? one why macroeconomic assessment as 1886 01:10:04,901 --> 01:10:05,833 macroeconomic assessment as discussed in the first session 1887 01:10:05,833 --> 01:10:06,566 discussed in the first session right Well? The public 1888 01:10:06,566 --> 01:10:07,466 right Well? The public institutions have a good system 1889 01:10:07,466 --> 01:10:10,099 institutions have a good system in place to trace the direct 1890 01:10:10,099 --> 01:10:13,100 in place to trace the direct effects of an operation. The 1891 01:10:13,100 --> 01:10:13,832 effects of an operation. The jobs come out of the road, 1892 01:10:13,832 --> 01:10:15,632 jobs come out of the road, sometimes particular market 1893 01:10:15,632 --> 01:10:17,432 sometimes particular market affects all the impact is much 1894 01:10:17,432 --> 01:10:18,898 affects all the impact is much broader and much more detached 1895 01:10:18,898 --> 01:10:20,632 broader and much more detached from this. It’s also cause a 1896 01:10:20,632 --> 01:10:21,932 from this. It’s also cause a little bit in the direction of 1897 01:10:21,932 --> 01:10:23,965 little bit in the direction of what material was saying on 1898 01:10:23,965 --> 01:10:27,932 what material was saying on jobs. think of a project that 1899 01:10:27,932 --> 01:10:28,765 jobs. think of a project that constructed European Road. you 1900 01:10:28,765 --> 01:10:29,832 constructed European Road. you can measure it on the roads the 1901 01:10:29,832 --> 01:10:31,698 can measure it on the roads the number of people employed to 1902 01:10:31,698 --> 01:10:33,665 number of people employed to building and maintaining it 1903 01:10:33,665 --> 01:10:34,666 building and maintaining it possibly in the traffic using 1904 01:10:34,666 --> 01:10:36,632 possibly in the traffic using but what is beyond the scope of 1905 01:10:36,632 --> 01:10:39,032 but what is beyond the scope of the direct measurements and a 1906 01:10:39,032 --> 01:10:40,365 the direct measurements and a project level is typically the 1907 01:10:40,365 --> 01:10:41,565 project level is typically the forward backward linkages in 1908 01:10:41,565 --> 01:10:44,733 forward backward linkages in the economy and The change in 1909 01:10:44,733 --> 01:10:47,132 the economy and The change in the competitiveness among the 1910 01:10:47,132 --> 01:10:47,965 the competitiveness among the regions, positive or negative 1911 01:10:47,965 --> 01:10:49,432 regions, positive or negative right non competitive 1912 01:10:49,432 --> 01:10:51,066 right non competitive industries will be hit by 1913 01:10:51,066 --> 01:10:52,065 industries will be hit by imports. competitive firms will 1914 01:10:52,065 --> 01:10:54,498 imports. competitive firms will benefit from the export them as 1915 01:10:54,498 --> 01:10:57,232 benefit from the export them as they are more competitors such 1916 01:10:57,232 --> 01:10:59,199 they are more competitors such data would be prohibitively 1917 01:10:59,199 --> 01:11:01,032 data would be prohibitively expensive or impossible to 1918 01:11:01,032 --> 01:11:03,432 expensive or impossible to measure directly or product 1919 01:11:03,432 --> 01:11:06,266 measure directly or product level, but often reflects the 1920 01:11:06,266 --> 01:11:07,966 level, but often reflects the overarching purpose of the 1921 01:11:07,966 --> 01:11:09,432 overarching purpose of the intervention so to gauge this 1922 01:11:09,432 --> 01:11:11,432 intervention so to gauge this indirect and due to some would 1923 01:11:11,432 --> 01:11:12,898 indirect and due to some would call ital effects we teamed up 1924 01:11:12,898 --> 01:11:15,632 call ital effects we teamed up with the Jess. Frances at the 1925 01:11:15,632 --> 01:11:19,233 with the Jess. Frances at the time, I’m there and using the 1926 01:11:19,233 --> 01:11:24,733 time, I’m there and using the Romo now. This is an example of 1927 01:11:24,733 --> 01:11:25,665 Romo now. This is an example of what you get out of the model 1928 01:11:25,665 --> 01:11:28,466 what you get out of the model now what you put in is it’s 1929 01:11:28,466 --> 01:11:29,666 now what you put in is it’s very data hungry. It’s on how 1930 01:11:29,666 --> 01:11:32,099 very data hungry. It’s on how much we spend where not two 1931 01:11:32,099 --> 01:11:34,099 much we spend where not two level when for what and it’s a 1932 01:11:34,099 --> 01:11:35,266 level when for what and it’s a lot of we’re talking about 1933 01:11:35,266 --> 01:11:37,498 lot of we’re talking about thousands of data inputs points 1934 01:11:37,498 --> 01:11:39,033 thousands of data inputs points into the model. The model is 1935 01:11:39,033 --> 01:11:40,465 into the model. The model is very big. It has more than 1936 01:11:40,465 --> 01:11:42,466 very big. It has more than a million equation. I think, 1937 01:11:42,466 --> 01:11:44,032 a million equation. I think, but it’s also Veterans, 1938 01:11:44,032 --> 01:11:45,466 but it’s also Veterans, transparent and it’s published 1939 01:11:45,466 --> 01:11:48,100 transparent and it’s published it’s reviewed So there’s a 1940 01:11:48,100 --> 01:11:49,032 it’s reviewed So there’s a common understanding of what 1941 01:11:49,032 --> 01:11:50,599 common understanding of what this model does and what it can 1942 01:11:50,599 --> 01:11:52,765 this model does and what it can be now what you see here is the 1943 01:11:52,765 --> 01:11:55,332 be now what you see here is the results when we. The a-b 1944 01:11:55,332 --> 01:11:56,700 results when we. The a-b portfolio of all the sign 1945 01:11:56,700 --> 01:11:59,599 portfolio of all the sign operations in 2019. This is the 1946 01:11:59,599 --> 01:12:01,499 operations in 2019. This is the total investment supportive of 1947 01:12:01,499 --> 01:12:04,532 total investment supportive of some 250 billion and this is 1948 01:12:04,532 --> 01:12:06,166 some 250 billion and this is expected to help increase your 1949 01:12:06,166 --> 01:12:08,599 expected to help increase your GDP by one percent or one point 1950 01:12:08,599 --> 01:12:10,632 GDP by one percent or one point one million jobs within five 1951 01:12:10,632 --> 01:12:13,700 one million jobs within five years. the investment affect 1952 01:12:13,700 --> 01:12:14,366 years. the investment affect the gray one right this 1953 01:12:14,366 --> 01:12:16,599 the gray one right this dissipates over time and more 1954 01:12:16,599 --> 01:12:17,466 dissipates over time and more importantly, the structures 1955 01:12:17,466 --> 01:12:19,365 importantly, the structures like the Blue one is the effect 1956 01:12:19,365 --> 01:12:20,599 like the Blue one is the effect on competitiveness and some 1957 01:12:20,599 --> 01:12:22,898 on competitiveness and some this grows slowly and that 1958 01:12:22,898 --> 01:12:25,365 this grows slowly and that again we’ve. This and discussed 1959 01:12:25,365 --> 01:12:27,632 again we’ve. This and discussed this in more detail, but from 1960 01:12:27,632 --> 01:12:28,999 this in more detail, but from the experience with this also 1961 01:12:28,999 --> 01:12:30,632 the experience with this also has a policy environment I 1962 01:12:30,632 --> 01:12:33,400 has a policy environment I should note it’s a very useful 1963 01:12:33,400 --> 01:12:34,234 should note it’s a very useful exercise. We learn a lot about 1964 01:12:34,234 --> 01:12:35,666 exercise. We learn a lot about how this works in the economy. 1965 01:12:35,666 --> 01:12:37,300 how this works in the economy. There are different aspects to 1966 01:12:37,300 --> 01:12:38,666 There are different aspects to it that from a macro 1967 01:12:38,666 --> 01:12:39,800 it that from a macro perspective, you have to 1968 01:12:39,800 --> 01:12:41,666 perspective, you have to consider some of differently a 1969 01:12:41,666 --> 01:12:43,100 consider some of differently a collaboration with this on the 1970 01:12:43,100 --> 01:12:45,200 collaboration with this on the J SCO connections and the 1971 01:12:45,200 --> 01:12:46,066 J SCO connections and the reception of the result has 1972 01:12:46,066 --> 01:12:46,900 reception of the result has been largely positive. There 1973 01:12:46,900 --> 01:12:48,233 been largely positive. There was lots of discussion and 1974 01:12:48,233 --> 01:12:49,433 was lots of discussion and critical ones, which is also 1975 01:12:49,433 --> 01:12:51,834 critical ones, which is also good right but isn’t very 1976 01:12:51,834 --> 01:12:53,567 good right but isn’t very important and how these numbers 1977 01:12:53,567 --> 01:12:54,500 important and how these numbers are used and read in the policy 1978 01:12:54,500 --> 01:12:55,966 are used and read in the policy by local. so it’s a model come 1979 01:12:55,966 --> 01:12:58,100 by local. so it’s a model come to. Some power is similar 1980 01:12:58,100 --> 01:12:59,700 to. Some power is similar models. you get some more 1981 01:12:59,700 --> 01:13:02,533 models. you get some more results out of this one. But 1982 01:13:02,533 --> 01:13:03,565 results out of this one. But it’s still it’s focus on jobs 1983 01:13:03,565 --> 01:13:05,366 it’s still it’s focus on jobs and GDP is not the same as 1984 01:13:05,366 --> 01:13:06,666 and GDP is not the same as well, but it gives you a good 1985 01:13:06,666 --> 01:13:08,632 well, but it gives you a good sense of of course. there are 1986 01:13:08,632 --> 01:13:10,633 sense of of course. there are some assumptions that enter and 1987 01:13:10,633 --> 01:13:11,498 some assumptions that enter and we’ve discussed them very long 1988 01:13:11,498 --> 01:13:13,133 we’ve discussed them very long and we’re learning still and 1989 01:13:13,133 --> 01:13:14,866 and we’re learning still and some of them, but we’ve tried 1990 01:13:14,866 --> 01:13:15,698 some of them, but we’ve tried to be very transparent about 1991 01:13:15,698 --> 01:13:16,165 to be very transparent about this and I think this is 1992 01:13:16,165 --> 01:13:17,599 this and I think this is important, Also for dialogue on 1993 01:13:17,599 --> 01:13:19,200 important, Also for dialogue on this and we’re in doubt we 1994 01:13:19,200 --> 01:13:21,132 this and we’re in doubt we opted for the more conservative 1995 01:13:21,132 --> 01:13:23,167 opted for the more conservative to be on the safe side and it’s 1996 01:13:23,167 --> 01:13:24,232 to be on the safe side and it’s very important. how you read 1997 01:13:24,232 --> 01:13:25,566 very important. how you read these results right there over 1998 01:13:25,566 --> 01:13:28,533 these results right there over a baseline and the baseline is 1999 01:13:28,533 --> 01:13:29,666 a baseline and the baseline is in this case that state and 2000 01:13:29,666 --> 01:13:31,498 in this case that state and Andrea will also talk about the 2001 01:13:31,498 --> 01:13:34,365 Andrea will also talk about the importance on such a model. 2002 01:13:34,365 --> 01:13:35,733 importance on such a model. Guessing the future right this 2003 01:13:35,733 --> 01:13:38,999 Guessing the future right this is over a certain state that 2004 01:13:38,999 --> 01:13:40,765 is over a certain state that this is the experience with the 2005 01:13:40,765 --> 01:13:43,500 this is the experience with the Boland. why we sing also to 2006 01:13:43,500 --> 01:13:44,566 Boland. why we sing also to respond to Manchester question 2007 01:13:44,566 --> 01:13:45,965 respond to Manchester question of why we use these models and 2008 01:13:45,965 --> 01:13:47,766 of why we use these models and what complements I let them 2009 01:13:47,766 --> 01:13:49,133 what complements I let them take you from here to give you 2010 01:13:49,133 --> 01:13:50,498 take you from here to give you more insight on the broader 2011 01:13:50,498 --> 01:13:55,633 more insight on the broader policy use. Thank you very much 2012 01:13:55,633 --> 01:13:58,199 policy use. Thank you very much your Thank you very much. 2013 01:13:58,199 --> 01:14:00,232 your Thank you very much. Francesco for sharing this 2014 01:14:00,232 --> 01:14:01,632 Francesco for sharing this session our colleagues in bro 2015 01:14:01,632 --> 01:14:03,666 session our colleagues in bro for giving us the opportunity 2016 01:14:03,666 --> 01:14:05,133 for giving us the opportunity to go on presenting some of the 2017 01:14:05,133 --> 01:14:08,366 to go on presenting some of the future. 2018 01:14:36,266 --> 01:14:39,100 Then I did those. and why we 2019 01:14:39,100 --> 01:14:43,167 Then I did those. and why we use them. in the context so the 2020 01:14:43,167 --> 01:14:44,599 use them. in the context so the main evaluate that is to fold 2021 01:14:44,599 --> 01:14:47,466 main evaluate that is to fold the one that generally refers 2022 01:14:47,466 --> 01:14:49,467 the one that generally refers to come Generali model as they 2023 01:14:49,467 --> 01:14:51,565 to come Generali model as they are called the the classroom. 2024 01:14:51,565 --> 01:14:54,666 are called the the classroom. that’s a lot more and then 2025 01:14:54,666 --> 01:14:55,966 that’s a lot more and then another one is specific to the 2026 01:14:55,966 --> 01:15:00,899 another one is specific to the normal. modern development that 2027 01:15:00,899 --> 01:15:02,766 normal. modern development that we we had over the last 10 2028 01:15:02,766 --> 01:15:05,965 we we had over the last 10 years. 2029 01:16:10,866 --> 01:16:14,034 moment 2030 01:16:19,434 --> 01:16:24,000 economico spesi fisiche o da 2031 01:16:24,000 --> 01:16:27,167 economico spesi fisiche o da romolo modem 2032 01:16:30,233 --> 01:16:32,700 eh in degli european 2033 01:16:32,700 --> 01:16:36,100 eh in degli european istituzioni bionda orizzonte 2034 01:16:36,100 --> 01:16:38,066 istituzioni bionda orizzonte all’impatto analisi sguardi 2035 01:16:38,066 --> 01:16:39,333 all’impatto analisi sguardi focus son dei territori 2036 01:16:39,333 --> 01:16:44,034 focus son dei territori all’aspetto esistono Only two 2037 01:16:44,034 --> 01:16:45,233 all’aspetto esistono Only two significant they will give you 2038 01:16:45,233 --> 01:16:47,067 significant they will give you some example of the 2039 01:16:47,067 --> 01:16:49,300 some example of the applications in the U. 2040 01:16:49,300 --> 01:16:50,066 applications in the U. Policy-making. We are also 2041 01:16:50,066 --> 01:16:51,233 Policy-making. We are also supporting the Green on member 2042 01:16:51,233 --> 01:16:53,666 supporting the Green on member States governments in some 2043 01:16:53,666 --> 01:16:54,866 States governments in some specific account the regional 2044 01:16:54,866 --> 01:16:57,466 specific account the regional specific assessment, but this 2045 01:16:57,466 --> 01:16:59,000 specific assessment, but this is a tool where the two major 2046 01:16:59,000 --> 01:16:59,633 is a tool where the two major building blocks, which are 2047 01:16:59,633 --> 01:17:01,065 building blocks, which are important in this light. the 2048 01:17:01,065 --> 01:17:02,898 important in this light. the name of the economic proximity 2049 01:17:02,898 --> 01:17:05,733 name of the economic proximity of territories through a unique 2050 01:17:05,733 --> 01:17:09,200 of territories through a unique multi regional system of input 2051 01:17:09,200 --> 01:17:13,600 multi regional system of input to tables and social account. 2052 01:17:48,100 --> 01:17:52,900 No togli regionale invece 2053 01:17:55,600 --> 01:18:00,466 in orizzonte al supporto di 2054 01:18:02,766 --> 01:18:06,000 polisi di 2055 01:18:07,333 --> 01:18:11,800 jeans macroeconomico analysis 2056 01:18:11,800 --> 01:18:16,500 jeans macroeconomico analysis al territorio play significa in 2057 01:18:16,500 --> 01:18:18,600 al territorio play significa in effetti macroeconomica risale e 2058 01:18:18,600 --> 01:18:22,767 effetti macroeconomica risale e sacri di cosa ho detto sector 2059 01:18:22,767 --> 01:18:28,767 sacri di cosa ho detto sector weis territoriale win win win 2060 01:18:31,433 --> 01:18:34,500 reference 2061 01:18:37,500 --> 01:18:43,700 for example formaggio in molti 2062 01:18:43,700 --> 01:18:52,167 for example formaggio in molti hanno programmi eh preparati 2063 01:18:55,367 --> 01:18:58,634 ricoveri e 2064 01:19:02,666 --> 01:19:04,465 in supporto in commissione 2065 01:19:04,465 --> 01:19:13,200 in supporto in commissione service l’etnie experience e 2066 01:19:14,833 --> 01:19:17,799 streaming collaboration 2067 01:19:17,799 --> 01:19:19,498 streaming collaboration espressi fisiche o degli 2068 01:19:19,498 --> 01:19:26,066 espressi fisiche o degli interventi minimo l’importanza 2069 01:19:26,700 --> 01:19:28,632 experience in the brother 2070 01:19:28,632 --> 01:19:30,232 experience in the brother contest del supporto dei tuoi 2071 01:19:30,232 --> 01:19:36,333 contest del supporto dei tuoi polisi di programma 2072 01:19:38,833 --> 01:19:43,632 eh sistem mix istemi 2073 01:19:45,100 --> 01:19:48,232 important 2074 01:19:49,465 --> 01:19:55,632 investire a ai virtual martin 2075 01:19:55,632 --> 01:19:59,933 investire a ai virtual martin christian modo di velocement 2076 01:19:59,933 --> 01:20:05,866 christian modo di velocement onde specifici romolo e model 2077 01:20:05,866 --> 01:20:13,366 onde specifici romolo e model experience polisi di eh 2078 01:20:13,366 --> 01:20:16,332 experience polisi di eh descrive territoriali impacto 2079 01:20:16,332 --> 01:20:22,165 descrive territoriali impacto under di new york eh design 2080 01:20:22,533 --> 01:20:26,898 bionda in programma 2081 01:20:31,698 --> 01:20:34,365 Mission is published a working 2082 01:20:34,365 --> 01:20:35,665 Mission is published a working document The tools are 2083 01:20:35,665 --> 01:20:37,233 document The tools are complaining that the 2084 01:20:37,233 --> 01:20:39,366 complaining that the communication with the European 2085 01:20:39,366 --> 01:20:43,832 communication with the European response. to the crisis was at 2086 01:20:43,832 --> 01:20:46,365 response. to the crisis was at the end of last month. the 2087 01:20:46,365 --> 01:20:48,333 the end of last month. the future of the European Party, 2088 01:20:48,333 --> 01:20:49,832 future of the European Party, the President of that and the 2089 01:20:49,832 --> 01:20:52,001 the President of that and the role Aap was’ include is the 2090 01:20:52,001 --> 01:20:55,065 role Aap was’ include is the one you see on the left in the 2091 01:20:55,065 --> 01:20:57,201 one you see on the left in the stuff working document in 90 - 2092 01:20:57,201 --> 01:20:58,865 stuff working document in 90 - eight final, you can find the 2093 01:20:58,865 --> 01:21:03,300 eight final, you can find the reference by Googling it 2094 01:21:58,367 --> 01:22:02,232 e del territorio 2095 01:22:36,900 --> 01:22:40,066 fisiche 2096 01:22:41,400 --> 01:22:44,733 l’application romolo input 2097 01:22:44,733 --> 01:22:47,933 l’application romolo input analysis 2098 01:22:50,434 --> 01:22:53,400 vai 2099 01:22:53,400 --> 01:22:53,434 vai down 2100 01:22:53,434 --> 01:22:59,367 down different severa eh 2101 01:22:59,367 --> 01:23:02,632 down different severa eh scenario 2102 01:23:07,032 --> 01:23:09,232 The transport logistics for the 2103 01:23:09,232 --> 01:23:11,833 The transport logistics for the in the accommodation sector and 2104 01:23:11,833 --> 01:23:12,467 in the accommodation sector and tourism, where I’m among the 2105 01:23:12,467 --> 01:23:14,932 tourism, where I’m among the ones most affected by these 2106 01:23:14,932 --> 01:23:16,365 ones most affected by these cases a year are more than in 2107 01:23:16,365 --> 01:23:19,499 cases a year are more than in other cases, you can see our 2108 01:23:19,499 --> 01:23:21,399 other cases, you can see our the map of the economic damage 2109 01:23:21,399 --> 01:23:23,898 the map of the economic damage do not at all with the one of 2110 01:23:23,898 --> 01:23:26,166 do not at all with the one of the theological damage. This is 2111 01:23:26,166 --> 01:23:27,165 the theological damage. This is an important information in the 2112 01:23:27,165 --> 01:23:30,199 an important information in the moment in which members States 2113 01:23:30,199 --> 01:23:32,066 moment in which members States the Commission p-make in 2114 01:23:32,066 --> 01:23:34,465 the Commission p-make in general are should try to tell 2115 01:23:34,465 --> 01:23:35,432 general are should try to tell the truth. You know that the 2116 01:23:35,432 --> 01:23:39,565 the truth. You know that the most effective. 2117 01:23:40,866 --> 01:23:45,233 gli strumenti cross cross 2118 01:23:45,233 --> 01:23:48,367 gli strumenti cross cross conclude 2119 01:23:49,833 --> 01:23:53,167 brother overview 2120 01:23:56,066 --> 01:24:00,599 focus in programma 2121 01:24:03,333 --> 01:24:07,933 eh grande fans commission 2122 01:24:07,933 --> 01:24:11,733 eh grande fans commission service Now, this is the one on 2123 01:24:11,733 --> 01:24:13,799 service Now, this is the one on tourism. It’s an example of a 2124 01:24:13,799 --> 01:24:15,232 tourism. It’s an example of a specific application to call 2125 01:24:15,232 --> 01:24:17,665 specific application to call me, but the input to the 2126 01:24:17,665 --> 01:24:20,700 me, but the input to the framework allow us to zoom on 2127 01:24:20,700 --> 01:24:23,698 framework allow us to zoom on many specifics. an example was 2128 01:24:23,698 --> 01:24:25,032 many specifics. an example was the impact of this when we did 2129 01:24:25,032 --> 01:24:26,366 the impact of this when we did with the gym on the European 2130 01:24:26,366 --> 01:24:27,965 with the gym on the European Mobilization Adjustment Fund, 2131 01:24:27,965 --> 01:24:31,433 Mobilization Adjustment Fund, but the focus is on short-term. 2132 01:24:31,433 --> 01:24:33,466 but the focus is on short-term. with the clear Doman sectors 2133 01:24:33,466 --> 01:24:35,466 with the clear Doman sectors and territories and with the 2134 01:24:35,466 --> 01:24:36,898 and territories and with the policy, which is by definition 2135 01:24:36,898 --> 01:24:40,765 policy, which is by definition of demand driven supporting. E 2136 01:24:40,765 --> 01:24:44,366 of demand driven supporting. E non lo so io chi 2137 01:24:44,799 --> 01:24:47,867 ho 2138 01:24:50,799 --> 01:24:57,298 supporto service under 2139 01:24:59,932 --> 01:25:03,400 commission proposto 2140 01:25:04,367 --> 01:25:07,866 element twin transition green 2141 01:25:07,866 --> 01:25:14,500 element twin transition green digital classe green digital 2142 01:25:15,834 --> 01:25:18,866 transition 2143 01:25:19,033 --> 01:25:22,066 under 2144 01:25:27,633 --> 01:25:33,800 onde regolatori program più 2145 01:25:40,600 --> 01:25:42,333 For pss of the regulatory 2146 01:25:42,333 --> 01:25:44,666 For pss of the regulatory reform, part of the investment 2147 01:25:44,666 --> 01:25:46,466 reform, part of the investment plan for Europe, that was also 2148 01:25:46,466 --> 01:25:47,866 plan for Europe, that was also an impact assessment we did on 2149 01:25:47,866 --> 01:25:49,866 an impact assessment we did on the micro level for the digital 2150 01:25:49,866 --> 01:25:51,600 the micro level for the digital market, which is now one of the 2151 01:25:51,600 --> 01:25:54,066 market, which is now one of the three priority I mentioned in 2152 01:25:54,066 --> 01:25:56,733 three priority I mentioned in the under the new Commission 2153 01:25:56,733 --> 01:26:00,199 the under the new Commission proposal on the MFF. I finished 2154 01:26:00,199 --> 01:26:02,033 proposal on the MFF. I finished my presentation here you find 2155 01:26:02,033 --> 01:26:05,699 my presentation here you find all the links my mail. we have 2156 01:26:05,699 --> 01:26:07,365 all the links my mail. we have all publications the 2157 01:26:07,365 --> 01:26:09,366 all publications the information for technical 2158 01:26:09,366 --> 01:26:14,100 information for technical audience for. On our science 2159 01:26:14,100 --> 01:26:15,165 audience for. On our science page, so if you’re interested 2160 01:26:15,165 --> 01:26:16,966 page, so if you’re interested in this kind of information 2161 01:26:16,966 --> 01:26:18,466 in this kind of information feel free to contact me or my 2162 01:26:18,466 --> 01:26:20,199 feel free to contact me or my colleagues directly or just a 2163 01:26:20,199 --> 01:26:22,466 colleagues directly or just a look to the publications on the 2164 01:26:22,466 --> 01:26:25,266 look to the publications on the Web and thanks for this year. 2165 01:26:25,266 --> 01:26:26,700 Web and thanks for this year. Thank you Andrea and thank you 2166 01:26:26,700 --> 01:26:28,166 Thank you Andrea and thank you again for the very 2167 01:26:28,166 --> 01:26:30,299 again for the very comprehensive presentation I 2168 01:26:30,299 --> 01:26:33,201 comprehensive presentation I will now give the floor to 2169 01:26:33,201 --> 01:26:34,732 will now give the floor to Janna who will present the 2170 01:26:34,732 --> 01:26:37,199 Janna who will present the Niger model, which is the two 2171 01:26:37,199 --> 01:26:38,367 Niger model, which is the two extremely interesting elements 2172 01:26:38,367 --> 01:26:39,033 extremely interesting elements that would like to point out 2173 01:26:39,033 --> 01:26:40,433 that would like to point out for the audience, which I think 2174 01:26:40,433 --> 01:26:43,200 for the audience, which I think will find very interesting. One 2175 01:26:43,200 --> 01:26:45,799 will find very interesting. One is the reconciliation of demand 2176 01:26:45,799 --> 01:26:46,465 is the reconciliation of demand the supply side economics from 2177 01:26:46,465 --> 01:26:47,900 the supply side economics from a certain point of view by 2178 01:26:47,900 --> 01:26:49,499 a certain point of view by looking at different time, 2179 01:26:49,499 --> 01:26:51,132 looking at different time, Horizons and the other is a 2180 01:26:51,132 --> 01:26:52,533 Horizons and the other is a comprehensive treatment of the 2181 01:26:52,533 --> 01:26:54,100 comprehensive treatment of the financial and the real aspects 2182 01:26:54,100 --> 01:26:55,600 financial and the real aspects of the economy, which can be 2183 01:26:55,600 --> 01:26:57,499 of the economy, which can be very useful in assessing for 2184 01:26:57,499 --> 01:26:58,498 very useful in assessing for example, the different impact 2185 01:26:58,498 --> 01:27:00,833 example, the different impact of rights or loans to finance 2186 01:27:00,833 --> 01:27:03,265 of rights or loans to finance similar projects. So on this we 2187 01:27:03,265 --> 01:27:05,599 similar projects. So on this we refer to yeah. Thank you very 2188 01:27:05,599 --> 01:27:07,232 refer to yeah. Thank you very much manche. Let me switch to 2189 01:27:07,232 --> 01:27:11,298 much manche. Let me switch to my presentation. 2190 01:27:19,966 --> 01:27:24,400 I hope you can see my screen. 2191 01:27:24,400 --> 01:27:27,000 I hope you can see my screen. Not yet not yet, okay, so I 2192 01:27:27,000 --> 01:27:30,566 Not yet not yet, okay, so I forgot to press on the share. 2193 01:27:30,566 --> 01:27:32,333 forgot to press on the share. but about now is it started 2194 01:27:32,333 --> 01:27:33,733 but about now is it started now? It’s perfect. Yes. Thank 2195 01:27:33,733 --> 01:27:37,265 now? It’s perfect. Yes. Thank you very much so Thank you 2196 01:27:37,265 --> 01:27:38,565 you very much so Thank you Francesco so as you’ve already 2197 01:27:38,565 --> 01:27:40,966 Francesco so as you’ve already described very well the 2198 01:27:40,966 --> 01:27:42,000 described very well the reconciliation of the short and 2199 01:27:42,000 --> 01:27:43,898 reconciliation of the short and long-term impacts in the model 2200 01:27:43,898 --> 01:27:45,633 long-term impacts in the model so that is our bread and butter 2201 01:27:45,633 --> 01:27:49,298 so that is our bread and butter as well as we provide lots of 2202 01:27:49,298 --> 01:27:52,498 as well as we provide lots of the work to our users half of 2203 01:27:52,498 --> 01:27:53,500 the work to our users half of them which have been a 2204 01:27:53,500 --> 01:27:55,800 them which have been a policy-making environment. so 2205 01:27:55,800 --> 01:27:57,432 policy-making environment. so we have to produce ourselves 2206 01:27:57,432 --> 01:27:59,298 we have to produce ourselves for once in a quarter so it 2207 01:27:59,298 --> 01:28:01,866 for once in a quarter so it means. So our best ability 2208 01:28:01,866 --> 01:28:03,633 means. So our best ability given the out comes to be 2209 01:28:03,633 --> 01:28:05,665 given the out comes to be information that we have at the 2210 01:28:05,665 --> 01:28:07,267 information that we have at the current injunction we have to 2211 01:28:07,267 --> 01:28:09,132 current injunction we have to think about most like your 2212 01:28:09,132 --> 01:28:11,666 think about most like your model or the Central view that 2213 01:28:11,666 --> 01:28:13,566 model or the Central view that we have to produce because then 2214 01:28:13,566 --> 01:28:15,633 we have to produce because then the base for our full forecast 2215 01:28:15,633 --> 01:28:17,033 the base for our full forecast be used by the by the users to 2216 01:28:17,033 --> 01:28:18,967 be used by the by the users to run the simulations and at the 2217 01:28:18,967 --> 01:28:21,832 run the simulations and at the same time they and users and 2218 01:28:21,832 --> 01:28:24,067 same time they and users and our sales will be looking at 2219 01:28:24,067 --> 01:28:25,832 our sales will be looking at the different what if scenarios 2220 01:28:25,832 --> 01:28:29,266 the different what if scenarios and given a cot the challenges 2221 01:28:29,266 --> 01:28:31,966 and given a cot the challenges that. We have to be basically 2222 01:28:31,966 --> 01:28:34,032 that. We have to be basically running loads of them, so it’s 2223 01:28:34,032 --> 01:28:35,665 running loads of them, so it’s basically two fold to that. we 2224 01:28:35,665 --> 01:28:39,966 basically two fold to that. we will be using our model so what 2225 01:28:39,966 --> 01:28:42,199 will be using our model so what do we have as a presentation? 2226 01:28:42,199 --> 01:28:43,867 do we have as a presentation? it’s a quick one, so I will 2227 01:28:43,867 --> 01:28:45,733 it’s a quick one, so I will just touch on on the Niger 2228 01:28:45,733 --> 01:28:47,665 just touch on on the Niger because I’m sure as a as you 2229 01:28:47,665 --> 01:28:49,898 because I’m sure as a as you know that there is no end in 2230 01:28:49,898 --> 01:28:51,165 know that there is no end in describing the model I will 2231 01:28:51,165 --> 01:28:53,566 describing the model I will quickly touch upon what we have 2232 01:28:53,566 --> 01:28:55,232 quickly touch upon what we have at the moment is information 2233 01:28:55,232 --> 01:28:56,566 at the moment is information from the economic impact of the 2234 01:28:56,566 --> 01:28:57,467 from the economic impact of the code. This is important because 2235 01:28:57,467 --> 01:28:58,733 code. This is important because this is our starting point. 2236 01:28:58,733 --> 01:29:01,100 this is our starting point. What we. We don’t So where we 2237 01:29:01,100 --> 01:29:03,098 What we. We don’t So where we are making assumptions why 2238 01:29:03,098 --> 01:29:03,933 are making assumptions why we’re thinking the way we’re 2239 01:29:03,933 --> 01:29:05,698 we’re thinking the way we’re thinking Then Chinas of the 2240 01:29:05,698 --> 01:29:07,298 thinking Then Chinas of the impact and to be more than the 2241 01:29:07,298 --> 01:29:08,666 impact and to be more than the approach of those channels, 2242 01:29:08,666 --> 01:29:09,698 approach of those channels, then some sort of examples, 2243 01:29:09,698 --> 01:29:11,132 then some sort of examples, which is particularly 2244 01:29:11,132 --> 01:29:12,799 which is particularly interesting for the you know 2245 01:29:12,799 --> 01:29:14,199 interesting for the you know policy making and environment 2246 01:29:14,199 --> 01:29:18,932 policy making and environment and then summarize. okay. So 2247 01:29:18,932 --> 01:29:21,333 and then summarize. okay. So Nigel is the global economic 2248 01:29:21,333 --> 01:29:23,732 Nigel is the global economic model so we are covering most 2249 01:29:23,732 --> 01:29:27,165 model so we are covering most OCD economies as a separate the 2250 01:29:27,165 --> 01:29:29,333 OCD economies as a separate the models and the ones that we. 2251 01:29:29,333 --> 01:29:31,633 models and the ones that we. Are having a separate those 2252 01:29:31,633 --> 01:29:33,298 Are having a separate those they are grouped so the world 2253 01:29:33,298 --> 01:29:37,166 they are grouped so the world is covered so economists are 2254 01:29:37,166 --> 01:29:38,700 is covered so economists are linked with each other by the 2255 01:29:38,700 --> 01:29:39,799 linked with each other by the trade, which is the main 2256 01:29:39,799 --> 01:29:42,232 trade, which is the main channel competitiveness and the 2257 01:29:42,232 --> 01:29:43,667 channel competitiveness and the finance channel so choking 2258 01:29:43,667 --> 01:29:45,165 finance channel so choking around the economy 2259 01:29:45,165 --> 01:29:46,365 around the economy automatically props for other 2260 01:29:46,365 --> 01:29:47,898 automatically props for other economists to the trade and the 2261 01:29:47,898 --> 01:29:50,567 economists to the trade and the financial linkages so in the 2262 01:29:50,567 --> 01:29:54,333 financial linkages so in the long term, the output of GDP is 2263 01:29:54,333 --> 01:29:56,367 long term, the output of GDP is determined by the potential to 2264 01:29:56,367 --> 01:29:57,866 determined by the potential to reflecting in factors which are 2265 01:29:57,866 --> 01:30:00,066 reflecting in factors which are capital. And the technological 2266 01:30:00,066 --> 01:30:01,233 capital. And the technological progress so these three 2267 01:30:01,233 --> 01:30:02,766 progress so these three interacting will lead you to 2268 01:30:02,766 --> 01:30:05,132 interacting will lead you to the long-term impact in the 2269 01:30:05,132 --> 01:30:07,032 the long-term impact in the short term. The impact is the 2270 01:30:07,032 --> 01:30:09,199 short term. The impact is the GDP driven and the is basically 2271 01:30:09,199 --> 01:30:11,599 GDP driven and the is basically the demand side. so whenever 2272 01:30:11,599 --> 01:30:13,432 the demand side. so whenever the short term and the long run 2273 01:30:13,432 --> 01:30:14,366 the short term and the long run impact of beating from each 2274 01:30:14,366 --> 01:30:16,365 impact of beating from each other, the adjustment processes 2275 01:30:16,365 --> 01:30:18,132 other, the adjustment processes in the model that will bring 2276 01:30:18,132 --> 01:30:20,932 in the model that will bring the two together and the in the 2277 01:30:20,932 --> 01:30:22,765 the two together and the in the slides on the bottom, I just 2278 01:30:22,765 --> 01:30:26,632 slides on the bottom, I just listed to the latest. economic 2279 01:30:26,632 --> 01:30:28,767 listed to the latest. economic and cleaning of the model is 2280 01:30:28,767 --> 01:30:32,832 and cleaning of the model is given in our. From 2018, so if 2281 01:30:32,832 --> 01:30:34,300 given in our. From 2018, so if there’s any interested that one 2282 01:30:34,300 --> 01:30:36,632 there’s any interested that one can read it so there is lots of 2283 01:30:36,632 --> 01:30:38,333 can read it so there is lots of information as I mentioned and 2284 01:30:38,333 --> 01:30:39,566 information as I mentioned and there is a lot of information 2285 01:30:39,566 --> 01:30:40,899 there is a lot of information about the impact of the code. 2286 01:30:40,899 --> 01:30:42,232 about the impact of the code. so we have to look at what 2287 01:30:42,232 --> 01:30:43,866 so we have to look at what happened like financial 2288 01:30:43,866 --> 01:30:45,766 happened like financial markets, some data from the GDP 2289 01:30:45,766 --> 01:30:47,700 markets, some data from the GDP the first quarter now casting 2290 01:30:47,700 --> 01:30:50,433 the first quarter now casting models there has been already 2291 01:30:50,433 --> 01:30:51,733 models there has been already introduced the pilot systems, 2292 01:30:51,733 --> 01:30:52,532 introduced the pilot systems, both monitoring and the 2293 01:30:52,532 --> 01:30:54,100 both monitoring and the physical so taking that 2294 01:30:54,100 --> 01:30:55,865 physical so taking that together and putting into the 2295 01:30:55,865 --> 01:30:58,066 together and putting into the model, However, we are not if 2296 01:30:58,066 --> 01:31:00,898 model, However, we are not if you do and. We don’t know the 2297 01:31:00,898 --> 01:31:02,165 you do and. We don’t know the cause of the virus and I don’t 2298 01:31:02,165 --> 01:31:04,167 cause of the virus and I don’t think that anybody can tell us 2299 01:31:04,167 --> 01:31:05,300 think that anybody can tell us apart from that flare up 2300 01:31:05,300 --> 01:31:06,233 apart from that flare up somewhere and we are lucky to 2301 01:31:06,233 --> 01:31:07,833 somewhere and we are lucky to get to the vaccine. find it 2302 01:31:07,833 --> 01:31:10,500 get to the vaccine. find it will stop but otherwise don’t 2303 01:31:10,500 --> 01:31:12,900 will stop but otherwise don’t know how long they will last. 2304 01:31:12,900 --> 01:31:14,000 know how long they will last. We don’t know how long 2305 01:31:14,000 --> 01:31:15,434 We don’t know how long government will continue will 2306 01:31:15,434 --> 01:31:17,167 government will continue will be willing or able to support 2307 01:31:17,167 --> 01:31:19,600 be willing or able to support the economies and businesses 2308 01:31:19,600 --> 01:31:21,200 the economies and businesses will survive some definitely 2309 01:31:21,200 --> 01:31:23,367 will survive some definitely peris some may prove and how 2310 01:31:23,367 --> 01:31:24,666 peris some may prove and how long the age of matching will 2311 01:31:24,666 --> 01:31:26,266 long the age of matching will last, so these are all the 2312 01:31:26,266 --> 01:31:26,967 last, so these are all the questions that basically 2313 01:31:26,967 --> 01:31:28,367 questions that basically creates a huge incentive 2314 01:31:28,367 --> 01:31:30,633 creates a huge incentive around. The projection, or all 2315 01:31:30,633 --> 01:31:32,866 around. The projection, or all the simulations that I think 2316 01:31:32,866 --> 01:31:34,367 the simulations that I think our profession is we will be 2317 01:31:34,367 --> 01:31:35,834 our profession is we will be creating so this is the just 2318 01:31:35,834 --> 01:31:37,700 creating so this is the just the chart to illustrate to the 2319 01:31:37,700 --> 01:31:38,900 the chart to illustrate to the hallway, one of the ways that 2320 01:31:38,900 --> 01:31:41,100 hallway, one of the ways that we are thinking of dealing with 2321 01:31:41,100 --> 01:31:44,600 we are thinking of dealing with uncertainty so this is a GDP 2322 01:31:44,600 --> 01:31:46,234 uncertainty so this is a GDP projection from our April for 2323 01:31:46,234 --> 01:31:47,666 projection from our April for Casto dotted line and 2324 01:31:47,666 --> 01:31:49,533 Casto dotted line and underneath what we have done 2325 01:31:49,533 --> 01:31:52,100 underneath what we have done because we don’t know how often 2326 01:31:52,100 --> 01:31:54,466 because we don’t know how often as I said the virus infections 2327 01:31:54,466 --> 01:31:55,800 as I said the virus infections will come in which contrasts so 2328 01:31:55,800 --> 01:31:57,834 will come in which contrasts so one way of dealing with that. 2329 01:31:57,834 --> 01:32:02,700 one way of dealing with that. There’s a. Percent chance in 2330 01:32:02,700 --> 01:32:04,199 There’s a. Percent chance in returning rate of the corner of 2331 01:32:04,199 --> 01:32:06,666 returning rate of the corner of virus in 2021 quarter to one 2332 01:32:06,666 --> 01:32:09,298 virus in 2021 quarter to one and the impact from that return 2333 01:32:09,298 --> 01:32:10,898 and the impact from that return will be approximately 50 2334 01:32:10,898 --> 01:32:12,366 will be approximately 50 percent from the peak so given 2335 01:32:12,366 --> 01:32:15,832 percent from the peak so given that information we’ll run this 2336 01:32:15,832 --> 01:32:17,132 that information we’ll run this simulation so the country will 2337 01:32:17,132 --> 01:32:19,166 simulation so the country will be shocked by the by randomly. 2338 01:32:19,166 --> 01:32:21,298 be shocked by the by randomly. So we don’t know which country 2339 01:32:21,298 --> 01:32:22,898 So we don’t know which country in which point will be affected 2340 01:32:22,898 --> 01:32:25,166 in which point will be affected and that produces the 2341 01:32:25,166 --> 01:32:26,898 and that produces the probability distribution around 2342 01:32:26,898 --> 01:32:29,432 probability distribution around the alternative. So what it 2343 01:32:29,432 --> 01:32:31,832 the alternative. So what it shows that if that pessimistic 2344 01:32:31,832 --> 01:32:34,065 shows that if that pessimistic scenario will take place then 2345 01:32:34,065 --> 01:32:37,100 scenario will take place then our forecast will be downgrade 2346 01:32:37,100 --> 01:32:37,966 our forecast will be downgrade significantly and will be there 2347 01:32:37,966 --> 01:32:39,965 significantly and will be there ending up somewhere in the 2348 01:32:39,965 --> 01:32:44,000 ending up somewhere in the shaded area. So because of 2349 01:32:44,000 --> 01:32:45,633 shaded area. So because of that, so we nobody can say 2350 01:32:45,633 --> 01:32:47,666 that, so we nobody can say exactly what is the number in 2351 01:32:47,666 --> 01:32:48,934 exactly what is the number in terms of the outcome, the GDP 2352 01:32:48,934 --> 01:32:50,366 terms of the outcome, the GDP of the five percent or minus 10 2353 01:32:50,366 --> 01:32:51,867 of the five percent or minus 10 percent, so we try to 2354 01:32:51,867 --> 01:32:54,100 percent, so we try to concentrate on the channels of 2355 01:32:54,100 --> 01:32:56,067 concentrate on the channels of the impact so to think where 2356 01:32:56,067 --> 01:32:58,166 the impact so to think where the show can be coming from and 2357 01:32:58,166 --> 01:32:59,766 the show can be coming from and what we basically can inform 2358 01:32:59,766 --> 01:33:01,966 what we basically can inform our policy makers or our users 2359 01:33:01,966 --> 01:33:03,665 our policy makers or our users of the way of dealing with it. 2360 01:33:03,665 --> 01:33:06,333 of the way of dealing with it. So roughly we’re divided the 2361 01:33:06,333 --> 01:33:08,032 So roughly we’re divided the shops into the supply and the 2362 01:33:08,032 --> 01:33:10,065 shops into the supply and the demand sides on the supply side 2363 01:33:10,065 --> 01:33:11,766 demand sides on the supply side we are looking at to the law. 2364 01:33:11,766 --> 01:33:15,066 we are looking at to the law. CBN employment as people become 2365 01:33:15,066 --> 01:33:17,300 CBN employment as people become in terms of dementia, we are 2366 01:33:17,300 --> 01:33:19,166 in terms of dementia, we are looking at the law, consumer 2367 01:33:19,166 --> 01:33:21,066 looking at the law, consumer spending and investment lower 2368 01:33:21,066 --> 01:33:23,100 spending and investment lower confidence and the risk 2369 01:33:23,100 --> 01:33:24,632 confidence and the risk appetite, which affect the 2370 01:33:24,632 --> 01:33:25,598 appetite, which affect the prices and corporate bond 2371 01:33:25,598 --> 01:33:27,698 prices and corporate bond deals. It’s a mantra as well 2372 01:33:27,698 --> 01:33:29,532 deals. It’s a mantra as well and then look down which 2373 01:33:29,532 --> 01:33:31,399 and then look down which affects of supplying the moho 2374 01:33:31,399 --> 01:33:32,766 affects of supplying the moho on the top of that we’ll be 2375 01:33:32,766 --> 01:33:34,332 on the top of that we’ll be adding the policy measures, 2376 01:33:34,332 --> 01:33:35,565 adding the policy measures, which will need to get to the 2377 01:33:35,565 --> 01:33:41,933 which will need to get to the show. Now, what are the numbers 2378 01:33:41,933 --> 01:33:43,667 show. Now, what are the numbers that we attached to those 2379 01:33:43,667 --> 01:33:46,365 that we attached to those channels and to the assumptions 2380 01:33:46,365 --> 01:33:47,532 channels and to the assumptions in terms of the consumer 2381 01:33:47,532 --> 01:33:49,832 in terms of the consumer spending, so if we roughly 2382 01:33:49,832 --> 01:33:53,266 spending, so if we roughly assumed that 2383 01:33:53,666 --> 01:33:55,199 non-food non-essential items in 2384 01:33:55,199 --> 01:33:56,733 non-food non-essential items in consumer baskets are around 40 2385 01:33:56,733 --> 01:33:59,532 consumer baskets are around 40 percent and in the low down we 2386 01:33:59,532 --> 01:34:02,067 percent and in the low down we assumed that that is the amount 2387 01:34:02,067 --> 01:34:03,100 assumed that that is the amount by which the consumer spending 2388 01:34:03,100 --> 01:34:06,100 by which the consumer spending is going down that is the size 2389 01:34:06,100 --> 01:34:07,966 is going down that is the size for the consumer spending. 2390 01:34:07,966 --> 01:34:10,599 for the consumer spending. However, we’re adjusted by. 2391 01:34:10,599 --> 01:34:12,199 However, we’re adjusted by. Which is based on the 2392 01:34:12,199 --> 01:34:14,766 Which is based on the University of Oxford, which 2393 01:34:14,766 --> 01:34:15,832 University of Oxford, which produced which is produced by 2394 01:34:15,832 --> 01:34:17,333 produced which is produced by the University of Oxford, which 2395 01:34:17,333 --> 01:34:20,833 the University of Oxford, which gives us the possibility to 2396 01:34:20,833 --> 01:34:22,898 gives us the possibility to shock the country, for example, 2397 01:34:22,898 --> 01:34:27,298 shock the country, for example, if say Germany had a strangers 2398 01:34:27,298 --> 01:34:29,265 if say Germany had a strangers to slow down lower or it 2399 01:34:29,265 --> 01:34:31,566 to slow down lower or it stopped the low down in certain 2400 01:34:31,566 --> 01:34:33,601 stopped the low down in certain areas and the UK, for example, 2401 01:34:33,601 --> 01:34:35,133 areas and the UK, for example, is affected more than you will 2402 01:34:35,133 --> 01:34:37,032 is affected more than you will see the show on the UK being 2403 01:34:37,032 --> 01:34:38,066 see the show on the UK being larger than the Germans so that 2404 01:34:38,066 --> 01:34:40,199 larger than the Germans so that gives you the different. Then 2405 01:34:40,199 --> 01:34:41,665 gives you the different. Then there is already a data in 2406 01:34:41,665 --> 01:34:43,533 there is already a data in employment for quarter one and 2407 01:34:43,533 --> 01:34:45,733 employment for quarter one and you have the down days in the 2408 01:34:45,733 --> 01:34:47,032 you have the down days in the first and the second quarter, 2409 01:34:47,032 --> 01:34:48,465 first and the second quarter, so that is an adjustment factor 2410 01:34:48,465 --> 01:34:51,067 so that is an adjustment factor to get to the on the show for 2411 01:34:51,067 --> 01:34:52,233 to get to the on the show for the quarter to two in 2412 01:34:52,233 --> 01:34:55,233 the quarter to two in employment to deal with the 2413 01:34:55,233 --> 01:34:58,632 employment to deal with the increased the risk and the 2414 01:34:58,632 --> 01:35:00,232 increased the risk and the negative impact on the 2415 01:35:00,232 --> 01:35:01,633 negative impact on the investment or incentive to 2416 01:35:01,633 --> 01:35:03,432 investment or incentive to invest so we are raising 2417 01:35:03,432 --> 01:35:04,765 invest so we are raising investment in premium by 500 2418 01:35:04,765 --> 01:35:05,698 investment in premium by 500 basis points, which is 2419 01:35:05,698 --> 01:35:08,066 basis points, which is approximately. equal to what we 2420 01:35:08,066 --> 01:35:10,199 approximately. equal to what we have. During the financial 2421 01:35:10,199 --> 01:35:13,732 have. During the financial crisis, Then monitor the policy 2422 01:35:13,732 --> 01:35:15,298 crisis, Then monitor the policy in the model is indigenous, so 2423 01:35:15,298 --> 01:35:18,199 in the model is indigenous, so it will be to it will act, 2424 01:35:18,199 --> 01:35:19,698 it will be to it will act, according to the aviation of 2425 01:35:19,698 --> 01:35:21,665 according to the aviation of the GDP from its nominal target 2426 01:35:21,665 --> 01:35:22,999 the GDP from its nominal target and inflation from its target 2427 01:35:22,999 --> 01:35:25,765 and inflation from its target and then we will add up the 2428 01:35:25,765 --> 01:35:26,366 and then we will add up the mitigating policy measures, 2429 01:35:26,366 --> 01:35:28,867 mitigating policy measures, which are announced by the 2430 01:35:28,867 --> 01:35:31,033 which are announced by the government. so this is just the 2431 01:35:31,033 --> 01:35:33,032 government. so this is just the snapshot of the preliminary 2432 01:35:33,032 --> 01:35:36,199 snapshot of the preliminary appd of the analysis and we 2433 01:35:36,199 --> 01:35:37,566 appd of the analysis and we want we are showing it’s the 2434 01:35:37,566 --> 01:35:40,632 want we are showing it’s the annual average TV. All the GDP 2435 01:35:40,632 --> 01:35:43,533 annual average TV. All the GDP from the baseline I even hasn’t 2436 01:35:43,533 --> 01:35:47,165 from the baseline I even hasn’t been any then the basil and is 2437 01:35:47,165 --> 01:35:49,533 been any then the basil and is basically is the January one 2438 01:35:49,533 --> 01:35:51,165 basically is the January one and compared to that we are 2439 01:35:51,165 --> 01:35:53,165 and compared to that we are seeing the world for example, 2440 01:35:53,165 --> 01:35:55,432 seeing the world for example, in the level of as I said, drop 2441 01:35:55,432 --> 01:35:58,898 in the level of as I said, drop by 10 percent. and as you can 2442 01:35:58,898 --> 01:36:01,032 by 10 percent. and as you can see there is a hagen between 2443 01:36:01,032 --> 01:36:03,266 see there is a hagen between the impact on the economies. 2444 01:36:03,266 --> 01:36:07,233 the impact on the economies. so. where the more that is is 2445 01:36:07,233 --> 01:36:08,898 so. where the more that is is that it can analyze as I 2446 01:36:08,898 --> 01:36:10,966 that it can analyze as I mentioned because of the trade 2447 01:36:10,966 --> 01:36:11,800 mentioned because of the trade of the importance of the spill 2448 01:36:11,800 --> 01:36:14,867 of the importance of the spill overs. So. On the analogy that 2449 01:36:14,867 --> 01:36:16,765 overs. So. On the analogy that we have done to the global 2450 01:36:16,765 --> 01:36:19,533 we have done to the global levels so our amplifying to be 2451 01:36:19,533 --> 01:36:21,965 levels so our amplifying to be around 60 percent so to say, in 2452 01:36:21,965 --> 01:36:23,066 around 60 percent so to say, in another words, if all the 2453 01:36:23,066 --> 01:36:24,199 another words, if all the economies around the world 2454 01:36:24,199 --> 01:36:25,866 economies around the world suffer one percent domestic 2455 01:36:25,866 --> 01:36:27,565 suffer one percent domestic demand than the global Egon 2456 01:36:27,565 --> 01:36:29,467 demand than the global Egon would be expected to construct 2457 01:36:29,467 --> 01:36:31,533 would be expected to construct about one point six accounting 2458 01:36:31,533 --> 01:36:34,765 about one point six accounting for the spills that helps to 2459 01:36:34,765 --> 01:36:36,232 for the spills that helps to answer those questions for 2460 01:36:36,232 --> 01:36:39,100 answer those questions for example, how much is the UK 2461 01:36:39,100 --> 01:36:41,066 example, how much is the UK being depressed by the lack of 2462 01:36:41,066 --> 01:36:43,301 being depressed by the lack of global demand? So what we look 2463 01:36:43,301 --> 01:36:46,599 global demand? So what we look at we are looking at. 2464 01:36:46,599 --> 01:36:47,432 at we are looking at. Pretending that there is no 2465 01:36:47,432 --> 01:36:51,100 Pretending that there is no demand in the UK and only 2466 01:36:51,100 --> 01:36:53,400 demand in the UK and only impact is coming only because 2467 01:36:53,400 --> 01:36:55,266 impact is coming only because there is a reduced demand for 2468 01:36:55,266 --> 01:36:57,600 there is a reduced demand for its exports so the export 2469 01:36:57,600 --> 01:37:00,232 its exports so the export market size is dropping and 2470 01:37:00,232 --> 01:37:02,766 market size is dropping and then the expert as are falling 2471 01:37:02,766 --> 01:37:04,698 then the expert as are falling because of that so the impact 2472 01:37:04,698 --> 01:37:06,532 because of that so the impact from that show so outside Chok 2473 01:37:06,532 --> 01:37:09,100 from that show so outside Chok on the GDP in the second 2474 01:37:09,100 --> 01:37:09,965 on the GDP in the second quarter, one, there is a peak 2475 01:37:09,965 --> 01:37:12,498 quarter, one, there is a peak of the impact is around six 2476 01:37:12,498 --> 01:37:16,500 of the impact is around six percent so even we. And 2477 01:37:16,500 --> 01:37:18,800 percent so even we. And domestic demand shock in the UK 2478 01:37:18,800 --> 01:37:20,200 domestic demand shock in the UK or in a country, you will be 2479 01:37:20,200 --> 01:37:22,900 or in a country, you will be still having negative impact 2480 01:37:22,900 --> 01:37:27,200 still having negative impact because of the trade channels. 2481 01:37:27,200 --> 01:37:30,866 because of the trade channels. So another element is the 2482 01:37:30,866 --> 01:37:32,167 So another element is the policy reaction as I mentioned 2483 01:37:32,167 --> 01:37:34,466 policy reaction as I mentioned so a man policy is indigenous 2484 01:37:34,466 --> 01:37:36,567 so a man policy is indigenous in the water and whenever there 2485 01:37:36,567 --> 01:37:38,834 in the water and whenever there is a space to cut interest 2486 01:37:38,834 --> 01:37:40,766 is a space to cut interest rates the negative shock on the 2487 01:37:40,766 --> 01:37:45,600 rates the negative shock on the economy like it will induce the 2488 01:37:45,600 --> 01:37:47,000 economy like it will induce the monitor theus In this case, 2489 01:37:47,000 --> 01:37:48,367 monitor theus In this case, it’s a reduction in interest 2490 01:37:48,367 --> 01:37:51,434 it’s a reduction in interest rates and comparing most 2491 01:37:51,434 --> 01:37:52,900 rates and comparing most economies with the U area. One 2492 01:37:52,900 --> 01:37:54,900 economies with the U area. One can see that this year, for 2493 01:37:54,900 --> 01:37:56,000 can see that this year, for example in the next year, so 2494 01:37:56,000 --> 01:37:57,333 example in the next year, so this is again relative to the 2495 01:37:57,333 --> 01:37:59,034 this is again relative to the baseline absolutely different 2496 01:37:59,034 --> 01:38:01,432 baseline absolutely different from. you can see that there is 2497 01:38:01,432 --> 01:38:03,800 from. you can see that there is no space in terms of the 2498 01:38:03,800 --> 01:38:05,133 no space in terms of the interest rate cutting the Eur 2499 01:38:05,133 --> 01:38:07,634 interest rate cutting the Eur area in the US. there is a much 2500 01:38:07,634 --> 01:38:11,700 area in the US. there is a much more possible to lose them into 2501 01:38:11,700 --> 01:38:15,200 more possible to lose them into trades and the last one is the 2502 01:38:15,200 --> 01:38:17,200 trades and the last one is the full fiscal policy response so 2503 01:38:17,200 --> 01:38:21,333 full fiscal policy response so if we add up all the fiscal 2504 01:38:21,333 --> 01:38:25,433 if we add up all the fiscal stimulus as as it was the done 2505 01:38:25,433 --> 01:38:27,533 stimulus as as it was the done by the second of April, so this 2506 01:38:27,533 --> 01:38:30,233 by the second of April, so this is again our previous review 2507 01:38:30,233 --> 01:38:32,233 is again our previous review work from our previous review 2508 01:38:32,233 --> 01:38:35,066 work from our previous review and edit. Stimulus and run them 2509 01:38:35,066 --> 01:38:37,266 and edit. Stimulus and run them together so they could the 2510 01:38:37,266 --> 01:38:39,034 together so they could the conclusion is that the global 2511 01:38:39,034 --> 01:38:41,700 conclusion is that the global GDP pss would have been or will 2512 01:38:41,700 --> 01:38:44,000 GDP pss would have been or will be by around two point, six 2513 01:38:44,000 --> 01:38:49,266 be by around two point, six percent less in 20 - two then 2514 01:38:49,266 --> 01:38:50,933 percent less in 20 - two then otherwise so physical stimulus 2515 01:38:50,933 --> 01:38:52,367 otherwise so physical stimulus is extremely important. so 2516 01:38:52,367 --> 01:38:53,733 is extremely important. so these are some of the tools 2517 01:38:53,733 --> 01:38:56,200 these are some of the tools that basically help us to look 2518 01:38:56,200 --> 01:38:58,767 that basically help us to look at the effectiveness of the 2519 01:38:58,767 --> 01:39:00,100 at the effectiveness of the measures and the usefulness as 2520 01:39:00,100 --> 01:39:01,432 measures and the usefulness as well because mother will be 2521 01:39:01,432 --> 01:39:02,565 well because mother will be able to distinguish for 2522 01:39:02,565 --> 01:39:04,199 able to distinguish for on the country. by country 2523 01:39:04,199 --> 01:39:06,800 on the country. by country basis with some of the fiscal 2524 01:39:06,800 --> 01:39:08,766 basis with some of the fiscal instruments are more you have 2525 01:39:08,766 --> 01:39:10,666 instruments are more you have having larger multiplier the 2526 01:39:10,666 --> 01:39:11,632 having larger multiplier the smaller one that you know the 2527 01:39:11,632 --> 01:39:12,766 smaller one that you know the some are more beneficial or 2528 01:39:12,766 --> 01:39:16,332 some are more beneficial or less and the to conclude so 2529 01:39:16,332 --> 01:39:16,966 less and the to conclude so we’re still thinking that 2530 01:39:16,966 --> 01:39:18,898 we’re still thinking that models are useful tools to help 2531 01:39:18,898 --> 01:39:19,999 models are useful tools to help us focus on the different 2532 01:39:19,999 --> 01:39:20,733 us focus on the different channels of the short 2533 01:39:20,733 --> 01:39:21,832 channels of the short transmissions. so it helps us 2534 01:39:21,832 --> 01:39:25,698 transmissions. so it helps us to. identify how the show is 2535 01:39:25,698 --> 01:39:27,432 to. identify how the show is transmitting and it allows you 2536 01:39:27,432 --> 01:39:31,233 transmitting and it allows you to. evaluate the impact on the 2537 01:39:31,233 --> 01:39:32,566 to. evaluate the impact on the policies, for example if the 2538 01:39:32,566 --> 01:39:35,432 policies, for example if the country’s have introducing the 2539 01:39:35,432 --> 01:39:38,032 country’s have introducing the fullest. Majors separately or 2540 01:39:38,032 --> 01:39:39,532 fullest. Majors separately or together, so, for example, if 2541 01:39:39,532 --> 01:39:40,999 together, so, for example, if you are small and open economy 2542 01:39:40,999 --> 01:39:44,166 you are small and open economy definitely if a large and 2543 01:39:44,166 --> 01:39:45,298 definitely if a large and logical, especially your 2544 01:39:45,298 --> 01:39:46,765 logical, especially your trading partner will be doing 2545 01:39:46,765 --> 01:39:49,266 trading partner will be doing the same as you will get to the 2546 01:39:49,266 --> 01:39:53,033 the same as you will get to the post over from a bit act. and 2547 01:39:53,033 --> 01:39:55,633 post over from a bit act. and the next step we’ll definitely 2548 01:39:55,633 --> 01:39:56,632 the next step we’ll definitely enroll the assessing the role 2549 01:39:56,632 --> 01:39:58,700 enroll the assessing the role of the history, Seps and the 2550 01:39:58,700 --> 01:40:00,366 of the history, Seps and the economies as you know we are 2551 01:40:00,366 --> 01:40:02,599 economies as you know we are hopeful we will be coming out 2552 01:40:02,599 --> 01:40:06,832 hopeful we will be coming out of the so how long the impact 2553 01:40:06,832 --> 01:40:09,033 of the so how long the impact is on the labor markets and in 2554 01:40:09,033 --> 01:40:09,833 is on the labor markets and in the supply side, Don’t the 2555 01:40:09,833 --> 01:40:13,401 the supply side, Don’t the economy and as well as the. The 2556 01:40:13,401 --> 01:40:16,366 economy and as well as the. The strategies so that’s it for me. 2557 01:40:16,366 --> 01:40:18,633 strategies so that’s it for me. Thank you very much. Thank you 2558 01:40:18,633 --> 01:40:20,133 Thank you very much. Thank you yana for this very clear and 2559 01:40:20,133 --> 01:40:21,767 yana for this very clear and the comprehensive presentation 2560 01:40:21,767 --> 01:40:23,933 the comprehensive presentation I will now give the floor to 2561 01:40:23,933 --> 01:40:26,633 I will now give the floor to bidwell who will present 2562 01:40:26,633 --> 01:40:28,333 bidwell who will present examples of impact evaluations 2563 01:40:28,333 --> 01:40:29,967 examples of impact evaluations preferred by his reserved team 2564 01:40:29,967 --> 01:40:33,633 preferred by his reserved team at the World Bank and here I 2565 01:40:33,633 --> 01:40:34,700 at the World Bank and here I think it will be interesting 2566 01:40:34,700 --> 01:40:37,167 think it will be interesting for the audience is the 2567 01:40:37,167 --> 01:40:38,866 for the audience is the frontier research that the Bank 2568 01:40:38,866 --> 01:40:40,600 frontier research that the Bank is performing in order to 2569 01:40:40,600 --> 01:40:42,266 is performing in order to address the specific challenge. 2570 01:40:42,266 --> 01:40:46,033 address the specific challenge. Of having to the real time 2571 01:40:46,033 --> 01:40:47,600 Of having to the real time information precise as possible 2572 01:40:47,600 --> 01:40:49,633 information precise as possible in a context, such as the 2573 01:40:49,633 --> 01:40:51,200 in a context, such as the developing complex, which is 2574 01:40:51,200 --> 01:40:53,733 developing complex, which is known to be that of scars. So 2575 01:40:53,733 --> 01:40:57,567 known to be that of scars. So we’ll leave the floor to be one 2576 01:40:57,567 --> 01:40:59,367 we’ll leave the floor to be one with the two go for the 2577 01:40:59,367 --> 01:41:01,499 with the two go for the introduction. Let me just share 2578 01:41:01,499 --> 01:41:03,265 introduction. Let me just share my screen. So yeah my 2579 01:41:03,265 --> 01:41:05,900 my screen. So yeah my presentation will basically. 2580 01:41:05,900 --> 01:41:08,666 presentation will basically. and should be able to now I 2581 01:41:08,666 --> 01:41:11,133 and should be able to now I will basically follow a bit the 2582 01:41:11,133 --> 01:41:12,466 will basically follow a bit the same path of thinking that I 2583 01:41:12,466 --> 01:41:14,199 same path of thinking that I just presented in terms of how 2584 01:41:14,199 --> 01:41:15,466 just presented in terms of how to approach a shop like Cod and 2585 01:41:15,466 --> 01:41:17,533 to approach a shop like Cod and how to model it and I guess 2586 01:41:17,533 --> 01:41:19,367 how to model it and I guess the. It’s pretty much the same 2587 01:41:19,367 --> 01:41:22,099 the. It’s pretty much the same in every single Mosul so I go 2588 01:41:22,099 --> 01:41:25,600 in every single Mosul so I go through that but at the Bank we 2589 01:41:25,600 --> 01:41:27,666 through that but at the Bank we we had basically to to to to 2590 01:41:27,666 --> 01:41:29,833 we had basically to to to to goals and purposes in terms of 2591 01:41:29,833 --> 01:41:31,367 goals and purposes in terms of how to approach this when was 2592 01:41:31,367 --> 01:41:34,099 how to approach this when was for our live broadcast and 2593 01:41:34,099 --> 01:41:35,800 for our live broadcast and release forecast in April and 2594 01:41:35,800 --> 01:41:37,665 release forecast in April and we have those in January in 2595 01:41:37,665 --> 01:41:39,534 we have those in January in June, so we had to come up with 2596 01:41:39,534 --> 01:41:43,466 June, so we had to come up with some sensible evaluation of the 2597 01:41:43,466 --> 01:41:45,800 some sensible evaluation of the crisis and also to do impact 2598 01:41:45,800 --> 01:41:47,733 crisis and also to do impact evaluation both for internal 2599 01:41:47,733 --> 01:41:49,600 evaluation both for internal purposes or external clients 2600 01:41:49,600 --> 01:41:52,600 purposes or external clients and the main issue. I guess 2601 01:41:52,600 --> 01:41:54,600 and the main issue. I guess full of countries that the Bank 2602 01:41:54,600 --> 01:41:57,333 full of countries that the Bank is covering is the issue of 2603 01:41:57,333 --> 01:42:02,500 is covering is the issue of data Approaching the crisis in 2604 01:42:02,500 --> 01:42:05,733 data Approaching the crisis in the economy is already not very 2605 01:42:05,733 --> 01:42:07,400 the economy is already not very easy and quite odd to be 2606 01:42:07,400 --> 01:42:08,666 easy and quite odd to be honest, but there’s some sort 2607 01:42:08,666 --> 01:42:11,266 honest, but there’s some sort of the data available, which is 2608 01:42:11,266 --> 01:42:12,733 of the data available, which is definitely not the case in the 2609 01:42:12,733 --> 01:42:13,866 definitely not the case in the developing countries and we had 2610 01:42:13,866 --> 01:42:15,233 developing countries and we had to work around this issue 2611 01:42:15,233 --> 01:42:17,933 to work around this issue trying to provide some analysis 2612 01:42:17,933 --> 01:42:19,600 trying to provide some analysis that make sense as much as 2613 01:42:19,600 --> 01:42:21,666 that make sense as much as possible. with the data that 2614 01:42:21,666 --> 01:42:22,866 possible. with the data that we’re available and that’s 2615 01:42:22,866 --> 01:42:24,233 we’re available and that’s pretty much what this 2616 01:42:24,233 --> 01:42:26,700 pretty much what this presentation will focus on 2617 01:42:26,700 --> 01:42:29,133 presentation will focus on today and as a Francesco said, 2618 01:42:29,133 --> 01:42:33,167 today and as a Francesco said, it’s basically a compilation. 2619 01:42:33,167 --> 01:42:37,200 it’s basically a compilation. From the entire team, so 2620 01:42:37,200 --> 01:42:38,500 From the entire team, so usually the way and that’s 2621 01:42:38,500 --> 01:42:39,800 usually the way and that’s basically what you just 2622 01:42:39,800 --> 01:42:42,200 basically what you just presented in the Niger model, 2623 01:42:42,200 --> 01:42:44,533 presented in the Niger model, the way we go from modeling 2624 01:42:44,533 --> 01:42:47,300 the way we go from modeling crisis or at least of standard 2625 01:42:47,300 --> 01:42:49,167 crisis or at least of standard Micro Modal is we need to 2626 01:42:49,167 --> 01:42:51,066 Micro Modal is we need to identify the transmission 2627 01:42:51,066 --> 01:42:55,167 identify the transmission channels and and those are 2628 01:42:55,167 --> 01:42:57,133 channels and and those are pretty clear for the cover we 2629 01:42:57,133 --> 01:42:59,434 pretty clear for the cover we need to collect data to be able 2630 01:42:59,434 --> 01:43:01,233 need to collect data to be able to somehow quantify those drugs 2631 01:43:01,233 --> 01:43:03,800 to somehow quantify those drugs and to to assess which channels 2632 01:43:03,800 --> 01:43:06,132 and to to assess which channels is going. Determinant is the 2633 01:43:06,132 --> 01:43:08,700 is going. Determinant is the external factors or is it the 2634 01:43:08,700 --> 01:43:10,365 external factors or is it the clovers is it domestic is 2635 01:43:10,365 --> 01:43:13,633 clovers is it domestic is physical policy and try to 2636 01:43:13,633 --> 01:43:15,266 physical policy and try to basically prioritize and see 2637 01:43:15,266 --> 01:43:18,366 basically prioritize and see which shock is having the most 2638 01:43:18,366 --> 01:43:20,766 which shock is having the most relevant impact in the world, 2639 01:43:20,766 --> 01:43:22,498 relevant impact in the world, Then it’s pretty much a 2640 01:43:22,498 --> 01:43:24,898 Then it’s pretty much a question for the model itself 2641 01:43:24,898 --> 01:43:27,066 question for the model itself of just pushing this to the 2642 01:43:27,066 --> 01:43:28,032 of just pushing this to the module and making a few 2643 01:43:28,032 --> 01:43:29,832 module and making a few additional assumption try to be 2644 01:43:29,832 --> 01:43:31,498 additional assumption try to be clear and transparent about 2645 01:43:31,498 --> 01:43:34,999 clear and transparent about those and basically get results 2646 01:43:34,999 --> 01:43:36,733 those and basically get results discuss the assumption and have 2647 01:43:36,733 --> 01:43:41,833 discuss the assumption and have a critical eye on this. so. So 2648 01:43:41,833 --> 01:43:43,966 a critical eye on this. so. So far, the playbook is pretty 2649 01:43:43,966 --> 01:43:45,732 far, the playbook is pretty straightforward and I guess 2650 01:43:45,732 --> 01:43:46,498 straightforward and I guess that there’s been a lot of 2651 01:43:46,498 --> 01:43:48,199 that there’s been a lot of discussion already and a lot of 2652 01:43:48,199 --> 01:43:50,100 discussion already and a lot of papers and what the cours 2653 01:43:50,100 --> 01:43:52,498 papers and what the cours actually represent. It’s first 2654 01:43:52,498 --> 01:43:55,566 actually represent. It’s first and foremost a epidemic. so 2655 01:43:55,566 --> 01:43:56,766 and foremost a epidemic. so it’s a help people are getting 2656 01:43:56,766 --> 01:43:58,365 it’s a help people are getting sick. Unfortunately, some 2657 01:43:58,365 --> 01:44:00,766 sick. Unfortunately, some people die and because of that 2658 01:44:00,766 --> 01:44:03,298 people die and because of that you’ve got you you might have a 2659 01:44:03,298 --> 01:44:04,898 you’ve got you you might have a lost in the labor force, a lot 2660 01:44:04,898 --> 01:44:07,566 lost in the labor force, a lot of productivity There’s been a 2661 01:44:07,566 --> 01:44:09,632 of productivity There’s been a lot of debate around 2662 01:44:09,632 --> 01:44:11,298 lot of debate around epidemiological models the one 2663 01:44:11,298 --> 01:44:13,599 epidemiological models the one that. It has been discussed 2664 01:44:13,599 --> 01:44:15,632 that. It has been discussed extensively the SIM models 2665 01:44:15,632 --> 01:44:16,566 extensively the SIM models susceptible infected and 2666 01:44:16,566 --> 01:44:19,733 susceptible infected and recovered model but that’s 2667 01:44:19,733 --> 01:44:21,432 recovered model but that’s something that we have not 2668 01:44:21,432 --> 01:44:23,832 something that we have not really focused on within the 2669 01:44:23,832 --> 01:44:26,700 really focused on within the micro part at the Bank and I 2670 01:44:26,700 --> 01:44:29,165 micro part at the Bank and I guess not a lot of of the 2671 01:44:29,165 --> 01:44:30,532 guess not a lot of of the models and that’s what the case 2672 01:44:30,532 --> 01:44:32,100 models and that’s what the case in Vienna’s presentation 2673 01:44:32,100 --> 01:44:33,698 in Vienna’s presentation because this direct effect of 2674 01:44:33,698 --> 01:44:34,898 because this direct effect of the epidemic of people getting 2675 01:44:34,898 --> 01:44:37,666 the epidemic of people getting sick or dying is a very small 2676 01:44:37,666 --> 01:44:40,099 sick or dying is a very small order of magnetic compared to 2677 01:44:40,099 --> 01:44:41,832 order of magnetic compared to the other transmission channels 2678 01:44:41,832 --> 01:44:45,134 the other transmission channels and the other Those of. Mister 2679 01:44:45,134 --> 01:44:46,099 and the other Those of. Mister Sans is basically the impact of 2680 01:44:46,099 --> 01:44:48,366 Sans is basically the impact of those lockdowns and stas 2681 01:44:48,366 --> 01:44:50,599 those lockdowns and stas measures so we go through those 2682 01:44:50,599 --> 01:44:53,232 measures so we go through those quickly because we’ve already 2683 01:44:53,232 --> 01:44:54,867 quickly because we’ve already discussed but basically as 2684 01:44:54,867 --> 01:44:57,832 discussed but basically as countries we’re trying to fight 2685 01:44:57,832 --> 01:44:59,698 countries we’re trying to fight against the progression of the 2686 01:44:59,698 --> 01:45:01,966 against the progression of the Conde some regulatory closures 2687 01:45:01,966 --> 01:45:04,232 Conde some regulatory closures have been put in place whether 2688 01:45:04,232 --> 01:45:06,732 have been put in place whether it’s some businesses on the 2689 01:45:06,732 --> 01:45:09,601 it’s some businesses on the movement of people, but 2690 01:45:09,601 --> 01:45:12,033 movement of people, but basically this as a. wide range 2691 01:45:12,033 --> 01:45:14,800 basically this as a. wide range of impact on the economy on the 2692 01:45:14,800 --> 01:45:19,566 of impact on the economy on the side, people are losing income. 2693 01:45:19,566 --> 01:45:19,667 side, people are losing income. Social 2694 01:45:19,667 --> 01:45:21,033 Social distinctive whether it’s 2695 01:45:21,033 --> 01:45:25,166 Social distinctive whether it’s imposed or just indulgent 2696 01:45:25,166 --> 01:45:26,898 imposed or just indulgent people are not willing to go 2697 01:45:26,898 --> 01:45:30,199 people are not willing to go out consume or to go to 2698 01:45:30,199 --> 01:45:31,499 out consume or to go to restaurants or to travel. It’s 2699 01:45:31,499 --> 01:45:34,365 restaurants or to travel. It’s basically lower demand for the 2700 01:45:34,365 --> 01:45:35,832 basically lower demand for the economy. business restrictions 2701 01:45:35,832 --> 01:45:37,999 economy. business restrictions and closures are also a supply 2702 01:45:37,999 --> 01:45:39,832 and closures are also a supply shock at the same time borders 2703 01:45:39,832 --> 01:45:42,632 shock at the same time borders were closed so it’s it’s also 2704 01:45:42,632 --> 01:45:45,066 were closed so it’s it’s also an issue for trade for tourism 2705 01:45:45,066 --> 01:45:46,933 an issue for trade for tourism and when additional factor on 2706 01:45:46,933 --> 01:45:48,232 and when additional factor on those lockdowns, it’s not it’s 2707 01:45:48,232 --> 01:45:50,066 those lockdowns, it’s not it’s not only your domestic shock. 2708 01:45:50,066 --> 01:45:54,498 not only your domestic shock. It’s it’s a very. Widespread 2709 01:45:54,498 --> 01:45:56,698 It’s it’s a very. Widespread and highly synchronized around 2710 01:45:56,698 --> 01:45:58,332 and highly synchronized around the globe and that’s a very 2711 01:45:58,332 --> 01:46:02,199 the globe and that’s a very strong global impact which is 2712 01:46:02,199 --> 01:46:04,199 strong global impact which is very important for developing 2713 01:46:04,199 --> 01:46:05,832 very important for developing economy in time in terms of the 2714 01:46:05,832 --> 01:46:08,132 economy in time in terms of the financial environment. we 2715 01:46:08,132 --> 01:46:12,800 financial environment. we observe reduced remittances 2716 01:46:12,800 --> 01:46:16,032 observe reduced remittances have to outflows falling 2717 01:46:16,032 --> 01:46:17,665 have to outflows falling commodity prices and that that 2718 01:46:17,665 --> 01:46:20,199 commodity prices and that that is also a lot of impact on some 2719 01:46:20,199 --> 01:46:22,365 is also a lot of impact on some highly specialized developing 2720 01:46:22,365 --> 01:46:24,232 highly specialized developing economies, but this issue is. 2721 01:46:24,232 --> 01:46:26,599 economies, but this issue is. About lockdowns, which is 2722 01:46:26,599 --> 01:46:29,066 About lockdowns, which is already hamed thing to measure 2723 01:46:29,066 --> 01:46:31,966 already hamed thing to measure and to to to, at least from a 2724 01:46:31,966 --> 01:46:33,665 and to to to, at least from a modeling point of view, but 2725 01:46:33,665 --> 01:46:35,698 modeling point of view, but also with the question of 2726 01:46:35,698 --> 01:46:37,765 also with the question of what’s gonna happen next and 2727 01:46:37,765 --> 01:46:40,232 what’s gonna happen next and there’s a high certainty about 2728 01:46:40,232 --> 01:46:41,432 there’s a high certainty about that even if locks’ to be 2729 01:46:41,432 --> 01:46:45,100 that even if locks’ to be lifted. tomorrow, there’s a 2730 01:46:45,100 --> 01:46:46,666 lifted. tomorrow, there’s a huge question. How has the 2731 01:46:46,666 --> 01:46:48,067 huge question. How has the economy would rebound and that 2732 01:46:48,067 --> 01:46:49,801 economy would rebound and that will depend on the behavior of 2733 01:46:49,801 --> 01:46:51,832 will depend on the behavior of economic agents are firms are 2734 01:46:51,832 --> 01:46:54,599 economic agents are firms are going to reinvest us as they. 2735 01:46:54,599 --> 01:46:57,432 going to reinvest us as they. To do because the economy is 2736 01:46:57,432 --> 01:46:59,665 To do because the economy is gonna catch up or people even 2737 01:46:59,665 --> 01:47:02,666 gonna catch up or people even though cinemas Fiats restrooms 2738 01:47:02,666 --> 01:47:04,001 though cinemas Fiats restrooms opening again of people 2739 01:47:04,001 --> 01:47:08,166 opening again of people actually gonna go consume and 2740 01:47:08,166 --> 01:47:10,766 actually gonna go consume and come back to a level of demand. 2741 01:47:10,766 --> 01:47:13,233 come back to a level of demand. was the one observed or before 2742 01:47:13,233 --> 01:47:15,832 was the one observed or before the crisis. That’s a huge 2743 01:47:15,832 --> 01:47:16,632 the crisis. That’s a huge interrogation and on top of 2744 01:47:16,632 --> 01:47:17,565 interrogation and on top of that, there’s also the question 2745 01:47:17,565 --> 01:47:19,566 that, there’s also the question on what’s on the police 2746 01:47:19,566 --> 01:47:20,333 on what’s on the police responses and the question of 2747 01:47:20,333 --> 01:47:22,199 responses and the question of it’s just called 2748 01:47:22,199 --> 01:47:23,499 it’s just called sustainability, which is a key 2749 01:47:23,499 --> 01:47:25,300 sustainability, which is a key issue in developing economies. 2750 01:47:25,300 --> 01:47:26,833 issue in developing economies. It is also in advanced 2751 01:47:26,833 --> 01:47:27,733 It is also in advanced economies where I guess the 2752 01:47:27,733 --> 01:47:31,233 economies where I guess the issue is a bit different. yeah. 2753 01:47:31,233 --> 01:47:32,898 issue is a bit different. yeah. That we need to think through 2754 01:47:32,898 --> 01:47:35,965 That we need to think through the mitigating effect of fiscal 2755 01:47:35,965 --> 01:47:39,167 the mitigating effect of fiscal or. increase expenditure to 2756 01:47:39,167 --> 01:47:40,898 or. increase expenditure to mitigate the crisis might not 2757 01:47:40,898 --> 01:47:42,232 mitigate the crisis might not be the case in developing a 2758 01:47:42,232 --> 01:47:45,867 be the case in developing a country economies where the 2759 01:47:45,867 --> 01:47:46,498 country economies where the physical environment is 2760 01:47:46,498 --> 01:47:48,599 physical environment is actually very constrained and 2761 01:47:48,599 --> 01:47:50,100 actually very constrained and their cash constraint and 2762 01:47:50,100 --> 01:47:52,066 their cash constraint and falling revenues because of the 2763 01:47:52,066 --> 01:47:54,100 falling revenues because of the crisis and I actually to 2764 01:47:54,100 --> 01:47:55,466 crisis and I actually to expanded through Cutts so that 2765 01:47:55,466 --> 01:47:56,898 expanded through Cutts so that actually might not mitigate the 2766 01:47:56,898 --> 01:47:59,133 actually might not mitigate the crisis with amplify the crisis 2767 01:47:59,133 --> 01:48:03,901 crisis with amplify the crisis but having. Like this usually 2768 01:48:03,901 --> 01:48:04,735 but having. Like this usually the the the the the next step 2769 01:48:04,735 --> 01:48:06,635 the the the the the next step will basically to go to the 2770 01:48:06,635 --> 01:48:08,368 will basically to go to the data and see is it more of a 2771 01:48:08,368 --> 01:48:09,869 data and see is it more of a dimensional? It is more of a 2772 01:48:09,869 --> 01:48:12,034 dimensional? It is more of a Super and that’s a very tricky 2773 01:48:12,034 --> 01:48:13,334 Super and that’s a very tricky question Everything’s happening 2774 01:48:13,334 --> 01:48:16,101 question Everything’s happening very fast. the time frame is 2775 01:48:16,101 --> 01:48:17,902 very fast. the time frame is compared to some other trucks 2776 01:48:17,902 --> 01:48:20,067 compared to some other trucks where sometimes it’s spreading 2777 01:48:20,067 --> 01:48:21,300 where sometimes it’s spreading over a month, It’s been 2778 01:48:21,300 --> 01:48:23,601 over a month, It’s been spreading over weeks, so we did 2779 01:48:23,601 --> 01:48:25,168 spreading over weeks, so we did very high frequency data 2780 01:48:25,168 --> 01:48:27,569 very high frequency data usually at the Sexual level and 2781 01:48:27,569 --> 01:48:29,069 usually at the Sexual level and those data are unfortunately in 2782 01:48:29,069 --> 01:48:33,268 those data are unfortunately in a lot of data. Countries we 2783 01:48:33,268 --> 01:48:34,900 a lot of data. Countries we don’t have to it’s already hard 2784 01:48:34,900 --> 01:48:37,434 don’t have to it’s already hard to get those high frequency 2785 01:48:37,434 --> 01:48:40,601 to get those high frequency indicators in advance 2786 01:48:40,601 --> 01:48:42,901 indicators in advance Economists all the moves so and 2787 01:48:42,901 --> 01:48:44,302 Economists all the moves so and that the whole country so 2788 01:48:44,302 --> 01:48:46,900 that the whole country so basically how we decided to 2789 01:48:46,900 --> 01:48:48,368 basically how we decided to approach this question of the 2790 01:48:48,368 --> 01:48:51,768 approach this question of the Bank, we already have a lot of 2791 01:48:51,768 --> 01:48:54,568 Bank, we already have a lot of models ready to be used to 2792 01:48:54,568 --> 01:48:55,834 models ready to be used to simulate Chas that we need to 2793 01:48:55,834 --> 01:48:58,634 simulate Chas that we need to talk or data to to put in those 2794 01:48:58,634 --> 01:49:01,633 talk or data to to put in those models so I will approach. To 2795 01:49:01,633 --> 01:49:04,199 models so I will approach. To say we’re gonna we’re gonna use 2796 01:49:04,199 --> 01:49:05,032 say we’re gonna we’re gonna use two different approaches, one 2797 01:49:05,032 --> 01:49:08,466 two different approaches, one will be to use new sources of 2798 01:49:08,466 --> 01:49:09,867 will be to use new sources of data that have been made 2799 01:49:09,867 --> 01:49:12,166 data that have been made available with such as Google 2800 01:49:12,166 --> 01:49:17,665 available with such as Google Data air pollution data or so 2801 01:49:17,665 --> 01:49:19,100 Data air pollution data or so so basically data that are 2802 01:49:19,100 --> 01:49:20,566 so basically data that are available sometimes on a daily 2803 01:49:20,566 --> 01:49:23,298 available sometimes on a daily basis and fortunately on the 2804 01:49:23,298 --> 01:49:24,766 basis and fortunately on the large number of countries 2805 01:49:24,766 --> 01:49:26,232 large number of countries including and economies that 2806 01:49:26,232 --> 01:49:29,534 including and economies that might be weaknesses to the 2807 01:49:29,534 --> 01:49:32,900 might be weaknesses to the state. But they all went with 2808 01:49:32,900 --> 01:49:35,566 state. But they all went with what we can get and also to say 2809 01:49:35,566 --> 01:49:37,566 what we can get and also to say if we are not capable of 2810 01:49:37,566 --> 01:49:39,766 if we are not capable of directly modeling a specific 2811 01:49:39,766 --> 01:49:41,898 directly modeling a specific coffee shop in this country, 2812 01:49:41,898 --> 01:49:43,266 coffee shop in this country, we’re just basically we’re 2813 01:49:43,266 --> 01:49:45,632 we’re just basically we’re gonna do a comparison over the 2814 01:49:45,632 --> 01:49:47,365 gonna do a comparison over the past experience whether it’s 2815 01:49:47,365 --> 01:49:49,466 past experience whether it’s with cells if epidemic with the 2816 01:49:49,466 --> 01:49:52,599 with cells if epidemic with the able life epidemic in Africa or 2817 01:49:52,599 --> 01:49:54,232 able life epidemic in Africa or with what’s actually happening 2818 01:49:54,232 --> 01:49:55,266 with what’s actually happening in the global economies and try 2819 01:49:55,266 --> 01:49:57,965 in the global economies and try to fit lockdowns measure, for 2820 01:49:57,965 --> 01:49:58,765 to fit lockdowns measure, for instance, in the main example 2821 01:49:58,765 --> 01:50:02,066 instance, in the main example that we. 2822 01:50:10,365 --> 01:50:13,432 Euh 2823 01:50:29,599 --> 01:50:32,532 Hum 2824 01:50:32,532 --> 01:50:32,632 Hum At the 2825 01:50:32,632 --> 01:50:35,165 At the very detailed level, we 2826 01:50:35,165 --> 01:50:38,199 At the very detailed level, we basically decided to model the 2827 01:50:38,199 --> 01:50:40,832 basically decided to model the crisis based on the comparison 2828 01:50:40,832 --> 01:50:43,832 crisis based on the comparison with past Ebola outbreaks in 2829 01:50:43,832 --> 01:50:46,199 with past Ebola outbreaks in Guinea and Sierra Leone and 2830 01:50:46,199 --> 01:50:49,432 Guinea and Sierra Leone and adjusting because between those 2831 01:50:49,432 --> 01:50:51,733 adjusting because between those academic countries improved in 2832 01:50:51,733 --> 01:50:53,432 academic countries improved in the capability of actually 2833 01:50:53,432 --> 01:50:55,801 the capability of actually fighting against epidemic and 2834 01:50:55,801 --> 01:50:58,199 fighting against epidemic and outbreaks so also adjusting the 2835 01:50:58,199 --> 01:50:59,432 outbreaks so also adjusting the intensity of the depending on 2836 01:50:59,432 --> 01:51:03,033 intensity of the depending on each country and Expenditures 2837 01:51:03,033 --> 01:51:05,300 each country and Expenditures the number of available based 2838 01:51:05,300 --> 01:51:07,232 the number of available based on this epidemic Preparedness 2839 01:51:07,232 --> 01:51:11,500 on this epidemic Preparedness index using those this compar 2840 01:51:11,500 --> 01:51:15,066 index using those this compar of the crisis with the Ebola. 2841 01:51:15,066 --> 01:51:16,466 of the crisis with the Ebola. outbreak of your screen. We 2842 01:51:16,466 --> 01:51:17,633 outbreak of your screen. We cannot see more of the 2843 01:51:17,633 --> 01:51:19,432 cannot see more of the presentation are you can see it 2844 01:51:19,432 --> 01:51:20,433 presentation are you can see it anymore, but you used to be 2845 01:51:20,433 --> 01:51:22,833 anymore, but you used to be able to see it until this 2846 01:51:22,833 --> 01:51:25,500 able to see it until this moment. Okay. Let me share it 2847 01:51:25,500 --> 01:51:27,333 moment. Okay. Let me share it again. Then oh yeah good. I 2848 01:51:27,333 --> 01:51:32,666 again. Then oh yeah good. I don’t know why it left. Okay. 2849 01:51:32,666 --> 01:51:36,632 don’t know why it left. Okay. Okay, good so basically using a 2850 01:51:36,632 --> 01:51:39,232 Okay, good so basically using a as a reference for Sub-Saharan 2851 01:51:39,232 --> 01:51:42,333 as a reference for Sub-Saharan Africa we were able to to to to 2852 01:51:42,333 --> 01:51:43,966 Africa we were able to to to to to come up with an estimate of 2853 01:51:43,966 --> 01:51:45,665 to come up with an estimate of the impact of the crisis and 2854 01:51:45,665 --> 01:51:47,298 the impact of the crisis and see that the last and DP will 2855 01:51:47,298 --> 01:51:48,498 see that the last and DP will be between five and eight 2856 01:51:48,498 --> 01:51:49,698 be between five and eight percent, but the interesting 2857 01:51:49,698 --> 01:51:52,232 percent, but the interesting thing about those type of 2858 01:51:52,232 --> 01:51:53,965 thing about those type of models and those types of 2859 01:51:53,965 --> 01:51:55,132 models and those types of models as we can go further 2860 01:51:55,132 --> 01:51:56,100 models as we can go further than just looking at the GDP 2861 01:51:56,100 --> 01:51:57,632 than just looking at the GDP impact, which is highly 2862 01:51:57,632 --> 01:51:59,165 impact, which is highly uncertain and depends on this 2863 01:51:59,165 --> 01:52:00,733 uncertain and depends on this initial calibration, but at 2864 01:52:00,733 --> 01:52:03,533 initial calibration, but at least thinking. The able 2865 01:52:03,533 --> 01:52:05,034 least thinking. The able epidemic there’s been a lot of 2866 01:52:05,034 --> 01:52:07,600 epidemic there’s been a lot of work and also analysis helps to 2867 01:52:07,600 --> 01:52:09,633 work and also analysis helps to think through the channels of 2868 01:52:09,633 --> 01:52:10,367 think through the channels of transmission and what’s 2869 01:52:10,367 --> 01:52:12,066 transmission and what’s actually in the tribe the 2870 01:52:12,066 --> 01:52:14,167 actually in the tribe the results in those countries and 2871 01:52:14,167 --> 01:52:15,567 results in those countries and two things that we could see 2872 01:52:15,567 --> 01:52:20,567 two things that we could see was such usually those epidemic 2873 01:52:20,567 --> 01:52:21,666 was such usually those epidemic that Associated with food 2874 01:52:21,666 --> 01:52:23,666 that Associated with food crisis as food supply is 2875 01:52:23,666 --> 01:52:26,333 crisis as food supply is actually significantly 2876 01:52:26,333 --> 01:52:27,300 actually significantly declining those countries and 2877 01:52:27,300 --> 01:52:28,900 declining those countries and that are strong poverty and 2878 01:52:28,900 --> 01:52:30,233 that are strong poverty and welfare effect in those 2879 01:52:30,233 --> 01:52:32,233 welfare effect in those countries and the second also. 2880 01:52:32,233 --> 01:52:35,466 countries and the second also. Is that public finances are 2881 01:52:35,466 --> 01:52:38,900 Is that public finances are falling by kind of double the 2882 01:52:38,900 --> 01:52:41,966 falling by kind of double the size of GDP usually in those 2883 01:52:41,966 --> 01:52:43,800 size of GDP usually in those type of epidemics and that’s 2884 01:52:43,800 --> 01:52:45,834 type of epidemics and that’s posing a huge challenge for the 2885 01:52:45,834 --> 01:52:48,100 posing a huge challenge for the economy to try to mitigate 2886 01:52:48,100 --> 01:52:51,466 economy to try to mitigate those crisis. without external 2887 01:52:51,466 --> 01:52:53,067 those crisis. without external financing at the Bank can offer 2888 01:52:53,067 --> 01:52:55,167 financing at the Bank can offer for instance, it’s very hard to 2889 01:52:55,167 --> 01:52:57,666 for instance, it’s very hard to find adequate health 2890 01:52:57,666 --> 01:53:00,066 find adequate health expenditure responses. the 2891 01:53:00,066 --> 01:53:02,599 expenditure responses. the second example would. Some full 2892 01:53:02,599 --> 01:53:04,498 second example would. Some full casting that was done for the 2893 01:53:04,498 --> 01:53:06,632 casting that was done for the South Asia Economics, but also 2894 01:53:06,632 --> 01:53:08,366 South Asia Economics, but also published in April which was 2895 01:53:08,366 --> 01:53:11,132 published in April which was more oriented in terms of full 2896 01:53:11,132 --> 01:53:12,366 more oriented in terms of full forecasting the impact of the 2897 01:53:12,366 --> 01:53:14,599 forecasting the impact of the crisis in the South region. so 2898 01:53:14,599 --> 01:53:18,933 crisis in the South region. so this study was used the macro 2899 01:53:18,933 --> 01:53:21,132 this study was used the macro structural model MSM, which is 2900 01:53:21,132 --> 01:53:25,766 structural model MSM, which is more oriented for forecasting. 2901 01:53:25,766 --> 01:53:28,498 more oriented for forecasting. purposes. It’s covering 180 2902 01:53:28,498 --> 01:53:29,698 purposes. It’s covering 180 countries in the world, but yet 2903 01:53:29,698 --> 01:53:31,401 countries in the world, but yet it was a small version. On 2904 01:53:31,401 --> 01:53:34,898 it was a small version. On South Asia and you hear the the 2905 01:53:34,898 --> 01:53:35,832 South Asia and you hear the the approach was a bit different. 2906 01:53:35,832 --> 01:53:37,032 approach was a bit different. It was also the same. There’s 2907 01:53:37,032 --> 01:53:40,700 It was also the same. There’s not a lot of they are available 2908 01:53:40,700 --> 01:53:42,666 not a lot of they are available in this country, but we have 2909 01:53:42,666 --> 01:53:44,666 in this country, but we have data in advanced economies and 2910 01:53:44,666 --> 01:53:46,765 data in advanced economies and we use our Francis reference 2911 01:53:46,765 --> 01:53:50,900 we use our Francis reference where sexual impact evaluation 2912 01:53:50,900 --> 01:53:53,965 where sexual impact evaluation that’s been published of the 2913 01:53:53,965 --> 01:53:55,401 that’s been published of the locked down in France and we 2914 01:53:55,401 --> 01:53:57,099 locked down in France and we also had country economist to 2915 01:53:57,099 --> 01:53:59,066 also had country economist to our country expertise on does 2916 01:53:59,066 --> 01:54:00,666 our country expertise on does it make sense to apply those 2917 01:54:00,666 --> 01:54:02,566 it make sense to apply those numbers directly to the country 2918 01:54:02,566 --> 01:54:05,666 numbers directly to the country so basically using a mix of 2919 01:54:05,666 --> 01:54:08,100 so basically using a mix of external country. Comes with 2920 01:54:08,100 --> 01:54:11,165 external country. Comes with judgment and data ofer and 2921 01:54:11,165 --> 01:54:14,666 judgment and data ofer and Ireland economies we’re able to 2922 01:54:14,666 --> 01:54:17,032 Ireland economies we’re able to replicate a case of locked down 2923 01:54:17,032 --> 01:54:21,032 replicate a case of locked down and in India, Bhutan and to to 2924 01:54:21,032 --> 01:54:24,700 and in India, Bhutan and to to push it into the model the the 2925 01:54:24,700 --> 01:54:26,700 push it into the model the the interesting aspect of this 2926 01:54:26,700 --> 01:54:29,032 interesting aspect of this modeling was to to do what 2927 01:54:29,032 --> 01:54:31,366 modeling was to to do what Ayana presented is to identify 2928 01:54:31,366 --> 01:54:33,500 Ayana presented is to identify what’s coming from domestic 2929 01:54:33,500 --> 01:54:35,033 what’s coming from domestic issues and what’s coming from 2930 01:54:35,033 --> 01:54:36,232 issues and what’s coming from international factors and if 2931 01:54:36,232 --> 01:54:37,166 international factors and if you look at the graph on the 2932 01:54:37,166 --> 01:54:39,032 you look at the graph on the right one focus on the Green 2933 01:54:39,032 --> 01:54:40,367 right one focus on the Green and the Red bar, the Green will 2934 01:54:40,367 --> 01:54:43,432 and the Red bar, the Green will be on the. Sign on the 2020 The 2935 01:54:43,432 --> 01:54:45,833 be on the. Sign on the 2020 The Green bar will be the last in 2936 01:54:45,833 --> 01:54:47,133 Green bar will be the last in GDP growth and due to 2937 01:54:47,133 --> 01:54:49,401 GDP growth and due to international actors in Guan on 2938 01:54:49,401 --> 01:54:51,232 international actors in Guan on the top panel and in Pakistan 2939 01:54:51,232 --> 01:54:53,366 the top panel and in Pakistan the panel and the Red Bar will 2940 01:54:53,366 --> 01:54:55,432 the panel and the Red Bar will be both the international and 2941 01:54:55,432 --> 01:54:57,399 be both the international and domestic acts, and we consider 2942 01:54:57,399 --> 01:55:00,498 domestic acts, and we consider that Froman once we correct for 2943 01:55:00,498 --> 01:55:02,066 that Froman once we correct for the international factors and 2944 01:55:02,066 --> 01:55:03,298 the international factors and not have defected india’ is 2945 01:55:03,298 --> 01:55:04,999 not have defected india’ is gonna slow down and the tourism 2946 01:55:04,999 --> 01:55:07,298 gonna slow down and the tourism is basically a zero in buchan 2947 01:55:07,298 --> 01:55:09,665 is basically a zero in buchan to domestic impact in itself is 2948 01:55:09,665 --> 01:55:12,166 to domestic impact in itself is very small and then in terms of 2949 01:55:12,166 --> 01:55:13,266 very small and then in terms of response, it might be very 2950 01:55:13,266 --> 01:55:14,099 response, it might be very different than what we observe 2951 01:55:14,099 --> 01:55:16,766 different than what we observe in Pakistan, where the the. The 2952 01:55:16,766 --> 01:55:18,498 in Pakistan, where the the. The impact is only one minus minus 2953 01:55:18,498 --> 01:55:20,766 impact is only one minus minus one percent of GDP against the 2954 01:55:20,766 --> 01:55:22,099 one percent of GDP against the impact of minus five percent 2955 01:55:22,099 --> 01:55:24,733 impact of minus five percent expected in 2020, where most of 2956 01:55:24,733 --> 01:55:26,199 expected in 2020, where most of it is coming from locked down 2957 01:55:26,199 --> 01:55:29,266 it is coming from locked down and restriction measures put in 2958 01:55:29,266 --> 01:55:30,067 and restriction measures put in place domestically so the 2959 01:55:30,067 --> 01:55:31,266 place domestically so the police response will be 2960 01:55:31,266 --> 01:55:33,733 police response will be different in this that’s it the 2961 01:55:33,733 --> 01:55:35,334 different in this that’s it the final example. I wanna present 2962 01:55:35,334 --> 01:55:37,000 final example. I wanna present is one that we did for an 2963 01:55:37,000 --> 01:55:38,233 is one that we did for an external client for Mexico was 2964 01:55:38,233 --> 01:55:42,167 external client for Mexico was basically also to do 2965 01:55:42,167 --> 01:55:43,433 basically also to do forecasting designs on what the 2966 01:55:43,433 --> 01:55:44,866 forecasting designs on what the impact on the crisis is also 2967 01:55:44,866 --> 01:55:46,900 impact on the crisis is also the impact on welfare and the 2968 01:55:46,900 --> 01:55:49,167 the impact on welfare and the approach here was. The Google 2969 01:55:49,167 --> 01:55:51,933 approach here was. The Google and and some air pollution 2970 01:55:51,933 --> 01:55:52,634 and and some air pollution data, so that’s the graph on 2971 01:55:52,634 --> 01:55:54,733 data, so that’s the graph on the left hand side where we’ve 2972 01:55:54,733 --> 01:55:57,533 the left hand side where we’ve got a very Google is publishing 2973 01:55:57,533 --> 01:55:59,800 got a very Google is publishing data on how Mobile people are 2974 01:55:59,800 --> 01:56:02,700 data on how Mobile people are in places like restaurants and 2975 01:56:02,700 --> 01:56:05,132 in places like restaurants and residential areas in public 2976 01:56:05,132 --> 01:56:07,999 residential areas in public transportation hubs and a paper 2977 01:56:07,999 --> 01:56:08,999 transportation hubs and a paper by some colleagues may show 2978 01:56:08,999 --> 01:56:11,533 by some colleagues may show that we can extract a common 2979 01:56:11,533 --> 01:56:13,466 that we can extract a common factor from those data try to 2980 01:56:13,466 --> 01:56:15,832 factor from those data try to basically see what the average 2981 01:56:15,832 --> 01:56:18,533 basically see what the average or the end that trend. In this 2982 01:56:18,533 --> 01:56:21,067 or the end that trend. In this decreasing mobility and if we 2983 01:56:21,067 --> 01:56:23,133 decreasing mobility and if we try to match these two some 2984 01:56:23,133 --> 01:56:25,267 try to match these two some industrial production index, 2985 01:56:25,267 --> 01:56:26,532 industrial production index, there’s actually a good 2986 01:56:26,532 --> 01:56:27,565 there’s actually a good predictability of what’s the 2987 01:56:27,565 --> 01:56:29,432 predictability of what’s the impact on the economy so using 2988 01:56:29,432 --> 01:56:32,166 impact on the economy so using those daily data and Mexico we 2989 01:56:32,166 --> 01:56:33,500 those daily data and Mexico we are capable of basically 2990 01:56:33,500 --> 01:56:34,801 are capable of basically extracting a signal on what 2991 01:56:34,801 --> 01:56:37,733 extracting a signal on what will be lost and in industrial 2992 01:56:37,733 --> 01:56:40,232 will be lost and in industrial production and pushing those 2993 01:56:40,232 --> 01:56:41,134 production and pushing those results in the second step of 2994 01:56:41,134 --> 01:56:43,298 results in the second step of this world was basically saying 2995 01:56:43,298 --> 01:56:44,632 this world was basically saying we’ve got it now that we’ve got 2996 01:56:44,632 --> 01:56:46,365 we’ve got it now that we’ve got some information on what’s the 2997 01:56:46,365 --> 01:56:49,733 some information on what’s the live. Can we use those data and 2998 01:56:49,733 --> 01:56:52,632 live. Can we use those data and push those to micros simulation 2999 01:56:52,632 --> 01:56:56,067 push those to micros simulation models and working with our 3000 01:56:56,067 --> 01:56:58,900 models and working with our poverty experts We’re capable 3001 01:56:58,900 --> 01:57:01,733 poverty experts We’re capable of converting those 3002 01:57:01,733 --> 01:57:05,698 of converting those macroeconomic trucks into 3003 01:57:05,698 --> 01:57:08,599 macroeconomic trucks into employment I probably shocks in 3004 01:57:08,599 --> 01:57:10,566 employment I probably shocks in Mexico per region, and that’s 3005 01:57:10,566 --> 01:57:11,565 Mexico per region, and that’s the you would see on the bottom 3006 01:57:11,565 --> 01:57:13,765 the you would see on the bottom left basically showing the jaw 3007 01:57:13,765 --> 01:57:18,199 left basically showing the jaw the loss and in. In the 3008 01:57:18,199 --> 01:57:19,800 the loss and in. In the different regions in the 3009 01:57:19,800 --> 01:57:22,632 different regions in the manufacturing sector. because 3010 01:57:22,632 --> 01:57:26,767 manufacturing sector. because of the the the crisis and we 3011 01:57:26,767 --> 01:57:27,665 of the the the crisis and we can see for instance in those 3012 01:57:27,665 --> 01:57:31,032 can see for instance in those also very important point for 3013 01:57:31,032 --> 01:57:32,766 also very important point for Mexico in terms of the policy 3014 01:57:32,766 --> 01:57:34,199 Mexico in terms of the policy responses that a lot of the job 3015 01:57:34,199 --> 01:57:36,666 responses that a lot of the job losses will be. concentrated in 3016 01:57:36,666 --> 01:57:39,067 losses will be. concentrated in the board of regions with the 3017 01:57:39,067 --> 01:57:42,999 the board of regions with the with the US. I will I will 3018 01:57:42,999 --> 01:57:45,099 with the US. I will I will conclude there but basically to 3019 01:57:45,099 --> 01:57:46,733 conclude there but basically to come back into open to the 3020 01:57:46,733 --> 01:57:49,133 come back into open to the question on francesco’s 3021 01:57:49,133 --> 01:57:53,167 question on francesco’s question even in the absence of 3022 01:57:53,167 --> 01:57:55,933 question even in the absence of data or the the the the tricky 3023 01:57:55,933 --> 01:57:58,365 data or the the the the tricky part of collecting data in that 3024 01:57:58,365 --> 01:57:58,999 part of collecting data in that environment, it’s still 3025 01:57:58,999 --> 01:58:00,799 environment, it’s still possible possible to do some 3026 01:58:00,799 --> 01:58:02,333 possible possible to do some modeling of all the results you 3027 01:58:02,333 --> 01:58:03,600 modeling of all the results you need to be taken with a grain 3028 01:58:03,600 --> 01:58:06,600 need to be taken with a grain of salt and I need to be 3029 01:58:06,600 --> 01:58:08,666 of salt and I need to be criticize to the appropriate 3030 01:58:08,666 --> 01:58:09,700 criticize to the appropriate level and discuss the 3031 01:58:09,700 --> 01:58:11,000 level and discuss the assumptions, but they’re still 3032 01:58:11,000 --> 01:58:13,266 assumptions, but they’re still providing. They’re allowed to 3033 01:58:13,266 --> 01:58:14,100 providing. They’re allowed to think for the transmission 3034 01:58:14,100 --> 01:58:15,900 think for the transmission channels they have to put 3035 01:58:15,900 --> 01:58:17,333 channels they have to put numbers and from the point of 3036 01:58:17,333 --> 01:58:19,833 numbers and from the point of view by putting numbers and 3037 01:58:19,833 --> 01:58:21,434 view by putting numbers and iming the ability to do a 3038 01:58:21,434 --> 01:58:23,167 iming the ability to do a cross-country, Conrad 3039 01:58:23,167 --> 01:58:24,066 cross-country, Conrad inconsistent manner to be able 3040 01:58:24,066 --> 01:58:26,000 inconsistent manner to be able to identify the most vulnerable 3041 01:58:26,000 --> 01:58:29,200 to identify the most vulnerable country and to focus assistance 3042 01:58:29,200 --> 01:58:33,866 country and to focus assistance and financing for instance. 3043 01:58:33,866 --> 01:58:37,233 and financing for instance. Thank you. Thank you for this 3044 01:58:37,233 --> 01:58:39,034 Thank you. Thank you for this presentation and they see that 3045 01:58:39,034 --> 01:58:41,300 presentation and they see that there are no right or questions 3046 01:58:41,300 --> 01:58:42,633 there are no right or questions so interest of time I will 3047 01:58:42,633 --> 01:58:44,434 so interest of time I will close the session I would like 3048 01:58:44,434 --> 01:58:46,833 close the session I would like to thank all the presenters for 3049 01:58:46,833 --> 01:58:48,233 to thank all the presenters for the comprehensive presentation 3050 01:58:48,233 --> 01:58:50,000 the comprehensive presentation for seeking to time I think the 3051 01:58:50,000 --> 01:58:52,300 for seeking to time I think the audience for that the occasion 3052 01:58:52,300 --> 01:58:53,834 audience for that the occasion to add the education to 3053 01:58:53,834 --> 01:58:54,100 to add the education to understand the potential of 3054 01:58:54,100 --> 01:58:56,233 understand the potential of their mothers and we’ll be able 3055 01:58:56,233 --> 01:58:58,633 their mothers and we’ll be able to research further if we want 3056 01:58:58,633 --> 01:58:59,433 to research further if we want to have more more information 3057 01:58:59,433 --> 01:59:01,799 to have more more information on that and I would like to 3058 01:59:01,799 --> 01:59:02,734 on that and I would like to thank the bruner for the 3059 01:59:02,734 --> 01:59:03,333 thank the bruner for the education to moderate this very 3060 01:59:03,333 --> 01:59:08,066 education to moderate this very interesting session so if Nata. 3061 02:01:11,632 --> 02:01:15,633 So welcome I won’t spend more 3062 02:01:15,633 --> 02:01:18,100 So welcome I won’t spend more time now each of you will have 3063 02:01:18,100 --> 02:01:21,034 time now each of you will have about 10 minutes to present 3064 02:01:21,034 --> 02:01:23,267 about 10 minutes to present slides or ideas and I would 3065 02:01:23,267 --> 02:01:25,466 slides or ideas and I would like to switch slightly the 3066 02:01:25,466 --> 02:01:27,200 like to switch slightly the other that was announced on the 3067 02:01:27,200 --> 02:01:30,367 other that was announced on the program and I’d like to call a 3068 02:01:30,367 --> 02:01:31,700 program and I’d like to call a and and matching So I’m 3069 02:01:31,700 --> 02:01:32,534 and and matching So I’m marching. I understand that you 3070 02:01:32,534 --> 02:01:35,233 marching. I understand that you will be presenting the paper 3071 02:01:35,233 --> 02:01:37,666 will be presenting the paper with avin on the on the impact 3072 02:01:37,666 --> 02:01:42,900 with avin on the on the impact of the E a-b about to so A nice 3073 02:01:42,900 --> 02:01:44,100 of the E a-b about to so A nice to see you on the floor is 3074 02:01:44,100 --> 02:01:46,833 to see you on the floor is yours. Hi Natasha great to see 3075 02:01:46,833 --> 02:01:49,667 yours. Hi Natasha great to see you as well. hello everyone let 3076 02:01:49,667 --> 02:01:54,133 you as well. hello everyone let me quickly turn turn on my 3077 02:01:54,133 --> 02:01:57,333 me quickly turn turn on my presentation. 3078 02:02:01,799 --> 02:02:06,400 Okay. Can you see it? 3079 02:02:07,333 --> 02:02:07,966 Excellent so thank you. Thank 3080 02:02:07,966 --> 02:02:10,099 Excellent so thank you. Thank you very much. I’m very excited 3081 02:02:10,099 --> 02:02:11,201 you very much. I’m very excited to share with you the outcomes 3082 02:02:11,201 --> 02:02:11,965 to share with you the outcomes of the research we’ve been 3083 02:02:11,965 --> 02:02:15,633 of the research we’ve been doing at the a-b. this is this 3084 02:02:15,633 --> 02:02:18,200 doing at the a-b. this is this is about the impact assessments 3085 02:02:18,200 --> 02:02:21,634 is about the impact assessments to of our supports to ssss at 3086 02:02:21,634 --> 02:02:23,200 to of our supports to ssss at the at the firm level and this 3087 02:02:23,200 --> 02:02:25,634 the at the firm level and this is joint work with Arron and 3088 02:02:25,634 --> 02:02:28,600 is joint work with Arron and Alessandro who who are here 3089 02:02:28,600 --> 02:02:30,300 Alessandro who who are here with us today and they promised 3090 02:02:30,300 --> 02:02:31,866 with us today and they promised to help me out with the with 3091 02:02:31,866 --> 02:02:36,733 to help me out with the with the difficult questions. 3092 02:03:10,465 --> 02:03:12,898 And here I think I can be more 3093 02:03:12,898 --> 02:03:14,266 And here I think I can be more detailed. That’s if we think 3094 02:03:14,266 --> 02:03:15,733 detailed. That’s if we think about access to finance, we can 3095 02:03:15,733 --> 02:03:19,733 about access to finance, we can think about a risk sharing 3096 02:03:19,733 --> 02:03:21,233 think about a risk sharing instruments like guarantees and 3097 02:03:21,233 --> 02:03:23,666 instruments like guarantees and loans. It’s really the in the 3098 02:03:23,666 --> 02:03:25,033 loans. It’s really the in the next slide. The results I will, 3099 02:03:25,033 --> 02:03:26,367 next slide. The results I will, I will show you the that they 3100 02:03:26,367 --> 02:03:27,666 I will show you the that they are really about the loan 3101 02:03:27,666 --> 02:03:32,633 are really about the loan support to the to the ssss. 3102 02:03:32,767 --> 02:03:35,200 SMEs are very close to to our 3103 02:03:35,200 --> 02:03:37,234 SMEs are very close to to our heart that the the IB we’ve 3104 02:03:37,234 --> 02:03:39,367 heart that the the IB we’ve heard already that this one of 3105 02:03:39,367 --> 02:03:41,100 heard already that this one of our public policy goals and 3106 02:03:41,100 --> 02:03:43,266 our public policy goals and indeed, if we look at our 3107 02:03:43,266 --> 02:03:45,167 indeed, if we look at our volume of landing to as a 3108 02:03:45,167 --> 02:03:48,666 volume of landing to as a sector from 2014 to 2017, it 3109 02:03:48,666 --> 02:03:51,300 sector from 2014 to 2017, it was more than 30 billion euros 3110 02:03:51,300 --> 02:03:53,000 was more than 30 billion euros a year. It’s it’s slowed down a 3111 02:03:53,000 --> 02:03:54,533 a year. It’s it’s slowed down a little bit in 2018, mostly on 3112 02:03:54,533 --> 02:03:56,567 little bit in 2018, mostly on the back of our decreased 3113 02:03:56,567 --> 02:03:59,200 the back of our decreased lending volumes overall yet 3114 02:03:59,200 --> 02:04:01,032 lending volumes overall yet still they they correspond to 3115 02:04:01,032 --> 02:04:03,733 still they they correspond to roughly speaking one -third of 3116 02:04:03,733 --> 02:04:05,867 roughly speaking one -third of our operational volumes this 3117 02:04:05,867 --> 02:04:08,165 our operational volumes this year, For those of you who are 3118 02:04:08,165 --> 02:04:10,232 year, For those of you who are not familiar with the EAP 3119 02:04:10,232 --> 02:04:12,132 not familiar with the EAP business model our supporters, 3120 02:04:12,132 --> 02:04:14,666 business model our supporters, SME takes the form of multi 3121 02:04:14,666 --> 02:04:16,132 SME takes the form of multi beneficiary intermediate 3122 02:04:16,132 --> 02:04:17,666 beneficiary intermediate landing. That means that first 3123 02:04:17,666 --> 02:04:19,933 landing. That means that first we land we don’t land to the to 3124 02:04:19,933 --> 02:04:22,632 we land we don’t land to the to the final beneficiaries Wess to 3125 02:04:22,632 --> 02:04:25,333 the final beneficiaries Wess to the intermediate Bank asking 3126 02:04:25,333 --> 02:04:28,498 the intermediate Bank asking them to to own land our 3127 02:04:28,498 --> 02:04:30,933 them to to own land our resources to the final 3128 02:04:30,933 --> 02:04:32,300 resources to the final beneficiaries by on the 3129 02:04:32,300 --> 02:04:34,266 beneficiaries by on the financial advantage that we 3130 02:04:34,266 --> 02:04:35,298 financial advantage that we that we give them at the at the 3131 02:04:35,298 --> 02:04:39,233 that we give them at the at the same time. And the question is 3132 02:04:39,233 --> 02:04:41,800 same time. And the question is we’ve heard this the question 3133 02:04:41,800 --> 02:04:43,698 we’ve heard this the question of nationality couple couple of 3134 02:04:43,698 --> 02:04:44,766 of nationality couple couple of times before, but if we think 3135 02:04:44,766 --> 02:04:47,333 times before, but if we think of why that the EIB landing can 3136 02:04:47,333 --> 02:04:49,700 of why that the EIB landing can be any different from standard 3137 02:04:49,700 --> 02:04:51,333 be any different from standard market-based funding or 3138 02:04:51,333 --> 02:04:52,733 market-based funding or commercial Bank funding, we can 3139 02:04:52,733 --> 02:04:55,233 commercial Bank funding, we can think of two channels of 3140 02:04:55,233 --> 02:04:56,700 think of two channels of transmission. The first one is 3141 02:04:56,700 --> 02:04:58,365 transmission. The first one is the transfer of financial 3142 02:04:58,365 --> 02:04:59,601 the transfer of financial advantage, so we are talking 3143 02:04:59,601 --> 02:05:01,767 advantage, so we are talking here really about pricing that 3144 02:05:01,767 --> 02:05:03,932 here really about pricing that thanks to our support, banks 3145 02:05:03,932 --> 02:05:06,433 thanks to our support, banks can lens to the final 3146 02:05:06,433 --> 02:05:07,566 can lens to the final beneficiaries at longer 3147 02:05:07,566 --> 02:05:11,132 beneficiaries at longer maturities or a lower cost. Or 3148 02:05:11,132 --> 02:05:12,067 maturities or a lower cost. Or in many cases, this is the 3149 02:05:12,067 --> 02:05:13,799 in many cases, this is the second channel. This is the 3150 02:05:13,799 --> 02:05:15,599 second channel. This is the easy of funding constraints in 3151 02:05:15,599 --> 02:05:18,165 easy of funding constraints in many cases. we both our support 3152 02:05:18,165 --> 02:05:19,933 many cases. we both our support banks wouldn’t be able to 3153 02:05:19,933 --> 02:05:22,166 banks wouldn’t be able to extend the credit lines to SME 3154 02:05:22,166 --> 02:05:23,767 extend the credit lines to SME sector because of funding 3155 02:05:23,767 --> 02:05:25,666 sector because of funding constraints, or because of risk 3156 02:05:25,666 --> 02:05:29,733 constraints, or because of risk capacity constraints. And in 3157 02:05:29,733 --> 02:05:30,500 capacity constraints. And in this study, what we do, we 3158 02:05:30,500 --> 02:05:33,700 this study, what we do, we really take take a deep dive 3159 02:05:33,700 --> 02:05:36,100 really take take a deep dive into into our data the 3160 02:05:36,100 --> 02:05:37,600 into into our data the databases and data resources 3161 02:05:37,600 --> 02:05:41,034 databases and data resources and we try to address we try to 3162 02:05:41,034 --> 02:05:43,234 and we try to address we try to look at each individual as a 3163 02:05:43,234 --> 02:05:45,666 look at each individual as a need that we received our 3164 02:05:45,666 --> 02:05:49,634 need that we received our support from 2008 until 2015 3165 02:05:49,634 --> 02:05:51,133 support from 2008 until 2015 and we married the state with 3166 02:05:51,133 --> 02:05:54,066 and we married the state with with financial characteristics 3167 02:05:54,066 --> 02:05:57,233 with financial characteristics observed in in the office. or 3168 02:05:57,233 --> 02:05:59,834 observed in in the office. or database and the the ident. 3169 02:05:59,834 --> 02:06:03,733 database and the the ident. Strategy here. soon it’s a 3170 02:06:03,733 --> 02:06:05,000 Strategy here. soon it’s a combination of propensity 3171 02:06:05,000 --> 02:06:06,632 combination of propensity score, matching and difference 3172 02:06:06,632 --> 02:06:08,633 score, matching and difference in difference to estimate the 3173 02:06:08,633 --> 02:06:10,367 in difference to estimate the controversial scenarios and we 3174 02:06:10,367 --> 02:06:11,933 controversial scenarios and we consider a number of variables 3175 02:06:11,933 --> 02:06:13,567 consider a number of variables but the two most important that 3176 02:06:13,567 --> 02:06:15,466 but the two most important that I will pay close attention to 3177 02:06:15,466 --> 02:06:18,200 I will pay close attention to is the number of employees and 3178 02:06:18,200 --> 02:06:20,066 is the number of employees and the investments, which are the 3179 02:06:20,066 --> 02:06:23,233 the investments, which are the fixed assets. 3180 02:06:24,700 --> 02:06:27,233 just a very briefly explain to 3181 02:06:27,233 --> 02:06:29,434 just a very briefly explain to you. What’s what our empirical 3182 02:06:29,434 --> 02:06:31,666 you. What’s what our empirical strategy look like so the Green 3183 02:06:31,666 --> 02:06:34,500 strategy look like so the Green do here are our friends the 3184 02:06:34,500 --> 02:06:36,767 do here are our friends the friends that received received 3185 02:06:36,767 --> 02:06:39,300 friends that received received the EIB support Horizontal 3186 02:06:39,300 --> 02:06:40,900 the EIB support Horizontal scale is the standardized time 3187 02:06:40,900 --> 02:06:43,133 scale is the standardized time scale with being the period 3188 02:06:43,133 --> 02:06:45,434 scale with being the period when a company received a 3189 02:06:45,434 --> 02:06:48,733 when a company received a received the E a-b support. so 3190 02:06:48,733 --> 02:06:51,266 received the E a-b support. so what we do for each treat that 3191 02:06:51,266 --> 02:06:52,600 what we do for each treat that company we look at the 3192 02:06:52,600 --> 02:06:53,966 company we look at the pretreatment period and based 3193 02:06:53,966 --> 02:06:56,733 pretreatment period and based on this. Characteristics we try 3194 02:06:56,733 --> 02:07:00,766 on this. Characteristics we try to find a company which is very 3195 02:07:00,766 --> 02:07:03,432 to find a company which is very similar to the one with one 3196 02:07:03,432 --> 02:07:04,667 similar to the one with one exception, which is that it 3197 02:07:04,667 --> 02:07:07,300 exception, which is that it didn’t receive the EIB support 3198 02:07:07,300 --> 02:07:10,999 didn’t receive the EIB support and based on this. under the 3199 02:07:10,999 --> 02:07:13,466 and based on this. under the assumption we can extrapolate 3200 02:07:13,466 --> 02:07:16,765 assumption we can extrapolate the the pre treatment dynamics 3201 02:07:16,765 --> 02:07:18,766 the the pre treatment dynamics to post-treatment period and 3202 02:07:18,766 --> 02:07:20,898 to post-treatment period and our impact is really estimated 3203 02:07:20,898 --> 02:07:22,565 our impact is really estimated in the post treatment phase as 3204 02:07:22,565 --> 02:07:25,466 in the post treatment phase as a difference between the 3205 02:07:25,466 --> 02:07:29,532 a difference between the observed characteristics and. 3206 02:07:29,532 --> 02:07:31,465 observed characteristics and. the the trend, which is 3207 02:07:31,465 --> 02:07:34,599 the the trend, which is extrapolated using the the the 3208 02:07:34,599 --> 02:07:36,333 extrapolated using the the the control of the the control 3209 02:07:36,333 --> 02:07:39,733 control of the the control group. Coming to the results of 3210 02:07:39,733 --> 02:07:42,232 group. Coming to the results of results are significant and 3211 02:07:42,232 --> 02:07:43,801 results are significant and positive when it comes to 3212 02:07:43,801 --> 02:07:45,567 positive when it comes to employment firm growth and 3213 02:07:45,567 --> 02:07:47,933 employment firm growth and investment dynamics. regarding 3214 02:07:47,933 --> 02:07:49,733 investment dynamics. regarding the employment we find that 3215 02:07:49,733 --> 02:07:51,200 the employment we find that firms that received the EIB 3216 02:07:51,200 --> 02:07:54,333 firms that received the EIB support. exhibits on average 3217 02:07:54,333 --> 02:07:56,599 support. exhibits on average four percent more intensive job 3218 02:07:56,599 --> 02:07:59,165 four percent more intensive job creation than similar companies 3219 02:07:59,165 --> 02:08:02,099 creation than similar companies without the EIB support in the 3220 02:08:02,099 --> 02:08:04,465 without the EIB support in the in terms of investment, it was 3221 02:08:04,465 --> 02:08:06,467 in terms of investment, it was 12 percent higher investment 3222 02:08:06,467 --> 02:08:11,034 12 percent higher investment dynamics for the E I P. 3223 02:08:43,866 --> 02:08:47,000 The and view that as a sort of 3224 02:08:47,000 --> 02:08:49,200 The and view that as a sort of confirmation of our main 3225 02:08:49,200 --> 02:08:52,266 confirmation of our main identifications strategy. 3226 02:08:52,266 --> 02:08:53,767 identifications strategy. Breaking down the results by 3227 02:08:53,767 --> 02:08:59,633 Breaking down the results by year we see that our impact is 3228 02:08:59,633 --> 02:09:01,133 year we see that our impact is a positive and monotonic when 3229 02:09:01,133 --> 02:09:02,633 a positive and monotonic when it comes to employment and 3230 02:09:02,633 --> 02:09:04,632 it comes to employment and investment. Let me here take a 3231 02:09:04,632 --> 02:09:05,898 investment. Let me here take a second to explain to you the 3232 02:09:05,898 --> 02:09:07,633 second to explain to you the graphs on the horizontal axis 3233 02:09:07,633 --> 02:09:09,133 graphs on the horizontal axis you can see the standardized 3234 02:09:09,133 --> 02:09:10,765 you can see the standardized time scale and on the vertical 3235 02:09:10,765 --> 02:09:13,365 time scale and on the vertical axis. These are the absolute 3236 02:09:13,365 --> 02:09:14,567 axis. These are the absolute numbers so, for instance, point 3237 02:09:14,567 --> 02:09:17,600 numbers so, for instance, point four here means that it’s point 3238 02:09:17,600 --> 02:09:18,767 four here means that it’s point 04 means that it’s four 3239 02:09:18,767 --> 02:09:21,800 04 means that it’s four percent. here. Let me also take 3240 02:09:21,800 --> 02:09:24,367 percent. here. Let me also take a second regarding this 3241 02:09:24,367 --> 02:09:25,833 a second regarding this investment dynamics. We see 3242 02:09:25,833 --> 02:09:29,700 investment dynamics. We see that there is a. And time, and 3243 02:09:29,700 --> 02:09:32,000 that there is a. And time, and we can view this as a sort of 3244 02:09:32,000 --> 02:09:33,700 we can view this as a sort of companies from the investment 3245 02:09:33,700 --> 02:09:35,666 companies from the investment that forcing the first period 3246 02:09:35,666 --> 02:09:37,234 that forcing the first period afterwards, the the The results 3247 02:09:37,234 --> 02:09:37,967 afterwards, the the The results remains that the significant 3248 02:09:37,967 --> 02:09:40,133 remains that the significant and positive, but this big the 3249 02:09:40,133 --> 02:09:45,133 and positive, but this big the biggest increases in time. 3250 02:10:18,100 --> 02:10:19,533 Breaking down the results by 3251 02:10:19,533 --> 02:10:21,132 Breaking down the results by sides on the left hand side and 3252 02:10:21,132 --> 02:10:22,632 sides on the left hand side and by age on the right hand side, 3253 02:10:22,632 --> 02:10:26,032 by age on the right hand side, we find that both younger and 3254 02:10:26,032 --> 02:10:28,599 we find that both younger and smaller firms exhibits higher 3255 02:10:28,599 --> 02:10:30,498 smaller firms exhibits higher impact when it’s when it comes 3256 02:10:30,498 --> 02:10:34,199 impact when it’s when it comes to size This is the statistical 3257 02:10:34,199 --> 02:10:35,165 to size This is the statistical significance between these two 3258 02:10:35,165 --> 02:10:38,132 significance between these two lines is. marginally Asp 3259 02:10:38,132 --> 02:10:39,599 lines is. marginally Asp significant, however, when it 3260 02:10:39,599 --> 02:10:41,167 significant, however, when it comes to age, there is a 3261 02:10:41,167 --> 02:10:42,965 comes to age, there is a substantial evidence we find 3262 02:10:42,965 --> 02:10:44,766 substantial evidence we find substantial evidence in the 3263 02:10:44,766 --> 02:10:46,765 substantial evidence in the data that younger firms younger 3264 02:10:46,765 --> 02:10:49,832 data that younger firms younger firms 3265 02:10:51,066 --> 02:10:53,165 Higher impact from the EIB 3266 02:10:53,165 --> 02:10:56,366 Higher impact from the EIB support. 3267 02:11:29,199 --> 02:11:31,966 By the the total assets of the 3268 02:11:31,966 --> 02:11:32,766 By the the total assets of the company and we look at the 3269 02:11:32,766 --> 02:11:35,165 company and we look at the point of distribution amount, 3270 02:11:35,165 --> 02:11:36,100 point of distribution amount, meaning the first point of the 3271 02:11:36,100 --> 02:11:37,666 meaning the first point of the high amount meaning the fifth 3272 02:11:37,666 --> 02:11:39,599 high amount meaning the fifth quarter of the distribution and 3273 02:11:39,599 --> 02:11:40,299 quarter of the distribution and the difference between these 3274 02:11:40,299 --> 02:11:42,632 the difference between these two lines is really not 3275 02:11:42,632 --> 02:11:43,999 two lines is really not convincing different from each 3276 02:11:43,999 --> 02:11:46,732 convincing different from each other. However, if we look at 3277 02:11:46,732 --> 02:11:49,599 other. However, if we look at the transfer transfer financial 3278 02:11:49,599 --> 02:11:52,232 the transfer transfer financial advantage, which we mean by the 3279 02:11:52,232 --> 02:11:53,632 advantage, which we mean by the basis points that the E a-b 3280 02:11:53,632 --> 02:11:57,032 basis points that the E a-b loans give over what what is 3281 02:11:57,032 --> 02:12:00,067 loans give over what what is what? 3282 02:12:41,100 --> 02:12:42,866 We are not able to pick up 3283 02:12:42,866 --> 02:12:44,933 We are not able to pick up whether they have projects or 3284 02:12:44,933 --> 02:12:46,767 whether they have projects or not, however, in in in the 3285 02:12:46,767 --> 02:12:48,733 not, however, in in in the paper that’s that you can find 3286 02:12:48,733 --> 02:12:50,834 paper that’s that you can find on the EIB website we proposed 3287 02:12:50,834 --> 02:12:53,167 on the EIB website we proposed several alternatives 3288 02:12:53,167 --> 02:12:54,600 several alternatives specifications in which we try 3289 02:12:54,600 --> 02:12:58,866 specifications in which we try to address this throwback and 3290 02:12:58,866 --> 02:13:01,400 to address this throwback and let me let me stop you. thank 3291 02:13:01,400 --> 02:13:04,767 let me let me stop you. thank you very much. 3292 02:14:05,266 --> 02:14:08,498 Where is my? 3293 02:14:13,600 --> 02:14:16,832 Here it is. 3294 02:14:27,034 --> 02:14:30,933 Okay. very nice to meet you all 3295 02:14:30,933 --> 02:14:33,600 Okay. very nice to meet you all on these circumstances and 3296 02:14:33,600 --> 02:14:38,500 on these circumstances and thanks for having me this is 3297 02:14:38,834 --> 02:14:40,500 I know there was there was some 3298 02:14:40,500 --> 02:14:44,166 I know there was there was some interest in recent research on 3299 02:14:44,166 --> 02:14:46,700 interest in recent research on adjustments and finances during 3300 02:14:46,700 --> 02:14:49,767 adjustments and finances during the crisis, but actually and I 3301 02:14:49,767 --> 02:14:52,367 the crisis, but actually and I have on research based on 3302 02:14:52,367 --> 02:14:55,000 have on research based on surveys in the US. related to 3303 02:14:55,000 --> 02:14:58,200 surveys in the US. related to that. but given the Of time and 3304 02:14:58,200 --> 02:14:59,666 that. but given the Of time and maybe the interest of the 3305 02:14:59,666 --> 02:15:01,001 maybe the interest of the participants, I decided instead 3306 02:15:01,001 --> 02:15:04,533 participants, I decided instead to talk about some very limited 3307 02:15:04,533 --> 02:15:08,633 to talk about some very limited aspects of my previous work 3308 02:15:08,633 --> 02:15:13,166 aspects of my previous work with David Brown on the SBA 3309 02:15:13,166 --> 02:15:14,498 with David Brown on the SBA loans. I’m happy to talk about 3310 02:15:14,498 --> 02:15:16,066 loans. I’m happy to talk about you know and anything you guys 3311 02:15:16,066 --> 02:15:17,167 you know and anything you guys would like to talk about. I 3312 02:15:17,167 --> 02:15:20,766 would like to talk about. I should just mention that it 3313 02:15:20,766 --> 02:15:22,132 should just mention that it won’t be disclosing any 3314 02:15:22,132 --> 02:15:23,032 won’t be disclosing any confidential information and 3315 02:15:23,032 --> 02:15:24,601 confidential information and this has been reviewed by the 3316 02:15:24,601 --> 02:15:28,000 this has been reviewed by the Census Bureau 3317 02:15:28,200 --> 02:15:31,266 We are using among others so 3318 02:15:31,266 --> 02:15:32,933 We are using among others so this this work maybe also worth 3319 02:15:32,933 --> 02:15:36,200 this this work maybe also worth mentioning was inspired by work 3320 02:15:36,200 --> 02:15:38,066 mentioning was inspired by work with David and I have done in 3321 02:15:38,066 --> 02:15:39,266 with David and I have done in Eastern Europe and in Eastern 3322 02:15:39,266 --> 02:15:40,967 Eastern Europe and in Eastern Europe for many years, in 3323 02:15:40,967 --> 02:15:44,700 Europe for many years, in particular, some papers on 3324 02:15:44,700 --> 02:15:47,100 particular, some papers on microloans and Romania, and 3325 02:15:47,100 --> 02:15:49,733 microloans and Romania, and this is really much more about 3326 02:15:49,733 --> 02:15:51,066 this is really much more about microloans and it is about 3327 02:15:51,066 --> 02:15:52,833 microloans and it is about sneeze. so in that sense may 3328 02:15:52,833 --> 02:15:56,333 sneeze. so in that sense may differ from arching paper very 3329 02:15:56,333 --> 02:15:57,733 differ from arching paper very interesting paper just 3330 02:15:57,733 --> 02:16:00,232 interesting paper just presenting. From some other, 3331 02:16:00,232 --> 02:16:04,166 presenting. From some other, these are small firms medium 3332 02:16:04,166 --> 02:16:06,733 these are small firms medium size is seven employees. Okay. 3333 02:16:06,733 --> 02:16:10,498 size is seven employees. Okay. So this is in by US standards. 3334 02:16:10,498 --> 02:16:12,199 So this is in by US standards. This is a big intervention into 3335 02:16:12,199 --> 02:16:14,299 This is a big intervention into the markets that we’re looking 3336 02:16:14,299 --> 02:16:15,633 the markets that we’re looking at here and what we’re trying 3337 02:16:15,633 --> 02:16:18,632 at here and what we’re trying to do is as a the impact of the 3338 02:16:18,632 --> 02:16:21,067 to do is as a the impact of the program and also draw some some 3339 02:16:21,067 --> 02:16:26,033 program and also draw some some inferences about the impact of 3340 02:16:26,033 --> 02:16:31,401 inferences about the impact of access to finance And both in 3341 02:16:31,401 --> 02:16:33,933 access to finance And both in this paper and in some follow 3342 02:16:33,933 --> 02:16:35,065 this paper and in some follow ups, we look at a lot of 3343 02:16:35,065 --> 02:16:36,366 ups, we look at a lot of different kinds of variations. 3344 02:16:36,366 --> 02:16:37,633 different kinds of variations. I’m not gonna have time to do 3345 02:16:37,633 --> 02:16:40,465 I’m not gonna have time to do that now when I have far too 3346 02:16:40,465 --> 02:16:43,433 that now when I have far too many sides to present so we’ll 3347 02:16:43,433 --> 02:16:46,001 many sides to present so we’ll just mentioned that in addition 3348 02:16:46,001 --> 02:16:46,865 just mentioned that in addition to these things and I’d like to 3349 02:16:46,865 --> 02:16:47,832 to these things and I’d like to put it here, we’re looking at 3350 02:16:47,832 --> 02:16:50,832 put it here, we’re looking at for activity and reallocation 3351 02:16:50,832 --> 02:16:54,867 for activity and reallocation effects of this program so some 3352 02:16:54,867 --> 02:16:56,232 effects of this program so some basic considerations about 3353 02:16:56,232 --> 02:16:58,200 basic considerations about identification is here. we have 3354 02:16:58,200 --> 02:17:00,766 identification is here. we have a treatment that. Firms and 3355 02:17:00,766 --> 02:17:03,200 a treatment that. Firms and over time. and I think that 3356 02:17:03,200 --> 02:17:06,367 over time. and I think that makes this kind of like the one 3357 02:17:06,367 --> 02:17:08,567 makes this kind of like the one you just heard from marching 3358 02:17:08,567 --> 02:17:11,167 you just heard from marching especially interesting and we 3359 02:17:11,167 --> 02:17:14,167 especially interesting and we in our identification strategy. 3360 02:17:14,167 --> 02:17:19,634 in our identification strategy. we we consider how the small 3361 02:17:19,634 --> 02:17:20,767 we we consider how the small lending market works the kinds 3362 02:17:20,767 --> 02:17:23,666 lending market works the kinds of firms they get treated the 3363 02:17:23,666 --> 02:17:24,866 of firms they get treated the characters. It’s the lenders 3364 02:17:24,866 --> 02:17:27,133 characters. It’s the lenders who participate in geographic 3365 02:17:27,133 --> 02:17:29,034 who participate in geographic variation and especially we 3366 02:17:29,034 --> 02:17:31,600 variation and especially we look at the. Details of how the 3367 02:17:31,600 --> 02:17:33,733 look at the. Details of how the program is designed because 3368 02:17:33,733 --> 02:17:35,000 program is designed because this turns out to be crucial 3369 02:17:35,000 --> 02:17:37,000 this turns out to be crucial for our identification. That is 3370 02:17:37,000 --> 02:17:39,633 for our identification. That is there’s a special status of 3371 02:17:39,633 --> 02:17:41,533 there’s a special status of some lenders. okay. I’ll come 3372 02:17:41,533 --> 02:17:43,266 some lenders. okay. I’ll come back to that in a moment, Okay 3373 02:17:43,266 --> 02:17:45,666 back to that in a moment, Okay looking at three different 3374 02:17:45,666 --> 02:17:47,700 looking at three different characteristics Of course we 3375 02:17:47,700 --> 02:17:49,866 characteristics Of course we need to take into account all 3376 02:17:49,866 --> 02:17:51,866 need to take into account all kinds of the Asic issues like 3377 02:17:51,866 --> 02:17:54,066 kinds of the Asic issues like from size for age industry, but 3378 02:17:54,066 --> 02:17:56,700 from size for age industry, but particularly important is 3379 02:17:56,700 --> 02:18:00,000 particularly important is whether these. firms are 3380 02:18:00,000 --> 02:18:02,632 whether these. firms are interested. Or not interested 3381 02:18:02,632 --> 02:18:05,666 interested. Or not interested in growth, Maybe you know that 3382 02:18:05,666 --> 02:18:07,401 in growth, Maybe you know that the article by first Utley and 3383 02:18:07,401 --> 02:18:09,933 the article by first Utley and the Brookings Papers, which has 3384 02:18:09,933 --> 02:18:12,199 the Brookings Papers, which has the title too small firms do 3385 02:18:12,199 --> 02:18:14,132 the title too small firms do and they’re short answer is 3386 02:18:14,132 --> 02:18:16,900 and they’re short answer is nothing well. It’s it turns out 3387 02:18:16,900 --> 02:18:18,100 nothing well. It’s it turns out that you know that might be 3388 02:18:18,100 --> 02:18:20,567 that you know that might be true in the median, but there’s 3389 02:18:20,567 --> 02:18:23,300 true in the median, but there’s a significant subset of small 3390 02:18:23,300 --> 02:18:25,000 a significant subset of small firms that are interested in 3391 02:18:25,000 --> 02:18:26,533 firms that are interested in growth In Duro and what we find 3392 02:18:26,533 --> 02:18:29,800 growth In Duro and what we find that in preliminary analysis is 3393 02:18:29,800 --> 02:18:32,700 that in preliminary analysis is that the rec. Of the SBA loans 3394 02:18:32,700 --> 02:18:35,266 that the rec. Of the SBA loans tend to be firm as they grew 3395 02:18:35,266 --> 02:18:36,333 tend to be firm as they grew substantially prior to getting 3396 02:18:36,333 --> 02:18:39,000 substantially prior to getting a loan and so this is what 3397 02:18:39,000 --> 02:18:43,000 a loan and so this is what motivates our wish to control 3398 02:18:43,000 --> 02:18:44,233 motivates our wish to control for this behavior. We do it 3399 02:18:44,233 --> 02:18:45,733 for this behavior. We do it through a matching procedure 3400 02:18:45,733 --> 02:18:48,633 through a matching procedure where we manage on four years 3401 02:18:48,633 --> 02:18:54,533 where we manage on four years of prior employment assets and 3402 02:18:54,533 --> 02:19:00,366 of prior employment assets and revenue so about the SBA loan 3403 02:19:00,366 --> 02:19:01,466 revenue so about the SBA loan program design, so these are 3404 02:19:01,466 --> 02:19:05,432 program design, so these are guarantees and I think that the 3405 02:19:05,432 --> 02:19:07,501 guarantees and I think that the crucial thing is that there’s 3406 02:19:07,501 --> 02:19:08,700 crucial thing is that there’s some kind of lenders they have 3407 02:19:08,700 --> 02:19:11,766 some kind of lenders they have a special status that allows 3408 02:19:11,766 --> 02:19:15,132 a special status that allows them to process loans more 3409 02:19:15,132 --> 02:19:19,033 them to process loans more cheaply and quickly and other 3410 02:19:19,033 --> 02:19:21,432 cheaply and quickly and other and other things to do so in 3411 02:19:21,432 --> 02:19:24,733 and other things to do so in turn out that the EPO pss are 3412 02:19:24,733 --> 02:19:26,498 turn out that the EPO pss are large bands. they have branches 3413 02:19:26,498 --> 02:19:28,065 large bands. they have branches and many more counties those 3414 02:19:28,065 --> 02:19:31,600 and many more counties those that are not 43 verse four and 3415 02:19:31,600 --> 02:19:34,332 that are not 43 verse four and the process a lot more loans 3416 02:19:34,332 --> 02:19:37,466 the process a lot more loans about A hundred 20 - seven per 3417 02:19:37,466 --> 02:19:40,199 about A hundred 20 - seven per year compared In other banks 3418 02:19:40,199 --> 02:19:44,366 year compared In other banks that provide SBA loans so I of 3419 02:19:44,366 --> 02:19:46,866 that provide SBA loans so I of about 9000 banks in the US, 3420 02:19:46,866 --> 02:19:49,166 about 9000 banks in the US, they’re only about 1500 the 3421 02:19:49,166 --> 02:19:52,001 they’re only about 1500 the issue any SBA loans in over a 3422 02:19:52,001 --> 02:19:54,199 issue any SBA loans in over a 20 year period that we study 3423 02:19:54,199 --> 02:19:56,166 20 year period that we study and there are only 300 of these 3424 02:19:56,166 --> 02:19:58,765 and there are only 300 of these PO pss. so it’s highly 3425 02:19:58,765 --> 02:19:59,832 PO pss. so it’s highly concentrated and yet at the 3426 02:19:59,832 --> 02:20:02,633 concentrated and yet at the same time, yes we loans are are 3427 02:20:02,633 --> 02:20:04,498 same time, yes we loans are are just a small tiny fraction 3428 02:20:04,498 --> 02:20:06,733 just a small tiny fraction really of all small business 3429 02:20:06,733 --> 02:20:09,733 really of all small business loans and then. Your fraction 3430 02:20:09,733 --> 02:20:10,632 loans and then. Your fraction of the source of revenue for 3431 02:20:10,632 --> 02:20:12,199 of the source of revenue for these banks, so this is 3432 02:20:12,199 --> 02:20:15,167 these banks, so this is important because these banks 3433 02:20:15,167 --> 02:20:16,767 important because these banks are making their decision about 3434 02:20:16,767 --> 02:20:19,367 are making their decision about whether to become a POP low. a 3435 02:20:19,367 --> 02:20:20,834 whether to become a POP low. a lender not on the basis of any 3436 02:20:20,834 --> 02:20:22,100 lender not on the basis of any particular firm that they can 3437 02:20:22,100 --> 02:20:24,533 particular firm that they can lend to not on the basis of any 3438 02:20:24,533 --> 02:20:26,100 lend to not on the basis of any particular geography because 3439 02:20:26,100 --> 02:20:27,233 particular geography because these are essentially 3440 02:20:27,233 --> 02:20:28,866 these are essentially nationwide banks with 3441 02:20:28,866 --> 02:20:30,200 nationwide banks with headquarters in New York or 3442 02:20:30,200 --> 02:20:32,700 headquarters in New York or Dallas or San Francisco or 3443 02:20:32,700 --> 02:20:34,367 Dallas or San Francisco or Chicago and they’re making 3444 02:20:34,367 --> 02:20:36,367 Chicago and they’re making corporate decisions about 3445 02:20:36,367 --> 02:20:38,266 corporate decisions about whether to be become PO Pss. 3446 02:20:38,266 --> 02:20:40,900 whether to be become PO Pss. Okay, but another very 3447 02:20:40,900 --> 02:20:43,400 Okay, but another very important fact is that and we 3448 02:20:43,400 --> 02:20:45,733 important fact is that and we were surprised about this but 3449 02:20:45,733 --> 02:20:47,434 were surprised about this but it’s small business lending is 3450 02:20:47,434 --> 02:20:49,567 it’s small business lending is still predominantly local 3451 02:20:49,567 --> 02:20:52,500 still predominantly local County level in the US so small 3452 02:20:52,500 --> 02:20:55,167 County level in the US so small businesses go to local banks. 3453 02:20:55,167 --> 02:20:56,600 businesses go to local banks. so it’s a branches which are 3454 02:20:56,600 --> 02:20:58,600 so it’s a branches which are deciding about whether to offer 3455 02:20:58,600 --> 02:21:00,567 deciding about whether to offer these loans. But it’s a 3456 02:21:00,567 --> 02:21:02,266 these loans. But it’s a Corporation which is deciding 3457 02:21:02,266 --> 02:21:04,865 Corporation which is deciding about whether to be a POP. 3458 02:21:04,865 --> 02:21:07,233 about whether to be a POP. Okay. So we have a data from 3459 02:21:07,233 --> 02:21:10,465 Okay. So we have a data from the SBA that we have link. To 3460 02:21:10,465 --> 02:21:13,801 the SBA that we have link. To the Census Bureau universal 3461 02:21:13,801 --> 02:21:15,965 the Census Bureau universal data on all employer for in the 3462 02:21:15,965 --> 02:21:21,601 data on all employer for in the US and the day of Linkin was 3463 02:21:21,601 --> 02:21:24,533 US and the day of Linkin was intense I took a very long 3464 02:21:24,533 --> 02:21:26,300 intense I took a very long time, especially when we think 3465 02:21:26,300 --> 02:21:27,867 time, especially when we think there’s there’s information in 3466 02:21:27,867 --> 02:21:31,533 there’s there’s information in the ESP about the lender and so 3467 02:21:31,533 --> 02:21:35,965 the ESP about the lender and so to figure out who I was was the 3468 02:21:35,965 --> 02:21:40,465 to figure out who I was was the channel. so we’re asking. 3469 02:21:40,465 --> 02:21:41,165 channel. so we’re asking. Progression that looks like 3470 02:21:41,165 --> 02:21:44,766 Progression that looks like this and it’s suffering from a. 3471 02:21:44,766 --> 02:21:46,232 this and it’s suffering from a. presidential election by we 3472 02:21:46,232 --> 02:21:48,566 presidential election by we don’t observe finance aside 3473 02:21:48,566 --> 02:21:51,100 don’t observe finance aside from SBA loans. so this is a 3474 02:21:51,100 --> 02:21:52,999 from SBA loans. so this is a disadvantage compared with the 3475 02:21:52,999 --> 02:21:57,165 disadvantage compared with the Orvis data so we’re using 3476 02:21:57,165 --> 02:21:59,599 Orvis data so we’re using matching Andres but also 3477 02:21:59,599 --> 02:22:01,199 matching Andres but also instrumental variables to 3478 02:22:01,199 --> 02:22:03,366 instrumental variables to identify and that’s I think 3479 02:22:03,366 --> 02:22:04,633 identify and that’s I think it’s the instruments which are 3480 02:22:04,633 --> 02:22:08,232 it’s the instruments which are really really the really key. 3481 02:22:08,232 --> 02:22:13,733 really really the really key. so as I said. Four years of of 3482 02:22:13,733 --> 02:22:14,766 so as I said. Four years of of history for the schooling, 3483 02:22:14,766 --> 02:22:17,132 history for the schooling, we’re doing exact match. you 3484 02:22:17,132 --> 02:22:19,133 we’re doing exact match. you know I don’t know a bunch of 3485 02:22:19,133 --> 02:22:21,399 know I don’t know a bunch of other you get four years of 3486 02:22:21,399 --> 02:22:22,599 other you get four years of matching he is it’s important 3487 02:22:22,599 --> 02:22:25,499 matching he is it’s important so this is showing that the 3488 02:22:25,499 --> 02:22:29,799 so this is showing that the employment growth is is higher 3489 02:22:29,799 --> 02:22:33,698 employment growth is is higher distribution point right and in 3490 02:22:33,698 --> 02:22:38,232 distribution point right and in the period for FPL SB in the 3491 02:22:38,232 --> 02:22:41,800 the period for FPL SB in the recipient. On You can see SBA 3492 02:22:41,800 --> 02:22:48,967 recipient. On You can see SBA loan recipients. on the right. 3493 02:23:19,133 --> 02:23:20,500 Decision but you know you can 3494 02:23:20,500 --> 02:23:22,333 Decision but you know you can imagine in Dallas. there’s some 3495 02:23:22,333 --> 02:23:23,167 imagine in Dallas. there’s some corporate headquarters and 3496 02:23:23,167 --> 02:23:24,066 corporate headquarters and there’s some vice President of 3497 02:23:24,066 --> 02:23:25,000 there’s some vice President of the small business loans. They 3498 02:23:25,000 --> 02:23:27,800 the small business loans. They become a PEOP and then the word 3499 02:23:27,800 --> 02:23:30,233 become a PEOP and then the word goes out to the branches. push 3500 02:23:30,233 --> 02:23:32,533 goes out to the branches. push the SBA loans because we can do 3501 02:23:32,533 --> 02:23:35,000 the SBA loans because we can do them more cheaply so our 3502 02:23:35,000 --> 02:23:37,800 them more cheaply so our instruments are some 3503 02:23:37,800 --> 02:23:39,466 instruments are some alternative measures of the 3504 02:23:39,466 --> 02:23:42,233 alternative measures of the degree to which PO Pss are 3505 02:23:42,233 --> 02:23:43,833 degree to which PO Pss are operating in the local credit 3506 02:23:43,833 --> 02:23:46,233 operating in the local credit market where a small firm is 3507 02:23:46,233 --> 02:23:52,000 market where a small firm is and We also as I said some 3508 02:23:52,000 --> 02:23:54,133 and We also as I said some various control variables but 3509 02:23:54,133 --> 02:23:55,800 various control variables but let me check the time Here-I’m 3510 02:23:55,800 --> 02:23:57,100 let me check the time Here-I’m probably already out of time. 3511 02:23:57,100 --> 02:23:58,333 probably already out of time. So I’m just gonna show you a 3512 02:23:58,333 --> 02:24:00,632 So I’m just gonna show you a couple of results and then wrap 3513 02:24:00,632 --> 02:24:04,001 couple of results and then wrap up so these are all OS. now one 3514 02:24:04,001 --> 02:24:06,232 up so these are all OS. now one thing that we we do we do here. 3515 02:24:06,232 --> 02:24:11,132 thing that we we do we do here. I wasn’t here whether marching 3516 02:24:11,132 --> 02:24:12,100 I wasn’t here whether marching and and and his co-author and 3517 02:24:12,100 --> 02:24:15,467 and and and his co-author and his word do this but there are 3518 02:24:15,467 --> 02:24:16,298 his word do this but there are a couple of things. One thing 3519 02:24:16,298 --> 02:24:17,867 a couple of things. One thing is we studied the volume. Of 3520 02:24:17,867 --> 02:24:20,498 is we studied the volume. Of the loan rather than having a 3521 02:24:20,498 --> 02:24:22,799 the loan rather than having a simple treatment, Tomy and the 3522 02:24:22,799 --> 02:24:24,100 simple treatment, Tomy and the reason for that is there’s a 3523 02:24:24,100 --> 02:24:26,666 reason for that is there’s a lot of variation in the loan 3524 02:24:26,666 --> 02:24:28,365 lot of variation in the loan side. On the other hand, the 3525 02:24:28,365 --> 02:24:29,832 side. On the other hand, the interest rates are highly 3526 02:24:29,832 --> 02:24:32,199 interest rates are highly constrained that can be are 3527 02:24:32,199 --> 02:24:34,032 constrained that can be are permitted to be charged on 3528 02:24:34,032 --> 02:24:37,199 permitted to be charged on these weapons we also include 3529 02:24:37,199 --> 02:24:41,132 these weapons we also include firm control fixed effects 3530 02:24:41,132 --> 02:24:42,433 firm control fixed effects that’s a fixed effect, which is 3531 02:24:42,433 --> 02:24:44,199 that’s a fixed effect, which is common for the firm and it’s 3532 02:24:44,199 --> 02:24:46,765 common for the firm and it’s set of the match Pros and when 3533 02:24:46,765 --> 02:24:51,800 set of the match Pros and when we actually just. Or less on 3534 02:24:51,800 --> 02:24:57,066 we actually just. Or less on this on this sample in this way 3535 02:24:57,066 --> 02:24:59,766 this on this sample in this way we get no difference prior to 3536 02:24:59,766 --> 02:25:01,965 we get no difference prior to the loan receipt in the rate of 3537 02:25:01,965 --> 02:25:03,699 the loan receipt in the rate of growth, they’re they’re both 3538 02:25:03,699 --> 02:25:06,067 growth, they’re they’re both growing but but this a lot of 3539 02:25:06,067 --> 02:25:07,966 growing but but this a lot of lines them up because we’ve 3540 02:25:07,966 --> 02:25:09,132 lines them up because we’ve constructed the matching so 3541 02:25:09,132 --> 02:25:11,698 constructed the matching so that it does that and then 3542 02:25:11,698 --> 02:25:13,267 that it does that and then continuing out we estimate how 3543 02:25:13,267 --> 02:25:15,332 continuing out we estimate how to five years after the loan 3544 02:25:15,332 --> 02:25:17,833 to five years after the loan growing when the mountain. 3545 02:25:17,833 --> 02:25:20,366 growing when the mountain. Richie three additional 3546 02:25:20,366 --> 02:25:22,465 Richie three additional employees per 3547 02:25:22,465 --> 02:25:24,232 employees per one million dollars of loan and 3548 02:25:24,232 --> 02:25:25,499 one million dollars of loan and it cost to the taxpayer We 3549 02:25:25,499 --> 02:25:28,199 it cost to the taxpayer We estimated to be about 20 to 3550 02:25:28,199 --> 02:25:31,233 estimated to be about 20 to $25000 of and of 3551 02:25:31,233 --> 02:25:33,100 $25000 of and of A million dollar loan principal 3552 02:25:33,100 --> 02:25:36,100 A million dollar loan principal coming from from defaults and 3553 02:25:36,100 --> 02:25:39,232 coming from from defaults and some administrative costs now 3554 02:25:39,232 --> 02:25:41,333 some administrative costs now these are the estimates there 3555 02:25:41,333 --> 02:25:43,500 these are the estimates there are a lot noisier they’re 3556 02:25:43,500 --> 02:25:45,432 are a lot noisier they’re similar quality. that no no 3557 02:25:45,432 --> 02:25:48,599 similar quality. that no no difference prior. I’m gonna 3558 02:25:48,599 --> 02:25:53,165 difference prior. I’m gonna receive and growing thereafter. 3559 02:25:53,165 --> 02:25:55,166 receive and growing thereafter. these estimates tend to be 3560 02:25:55,166 --> 02:25:57,100 these estimates tend to be larger depending on specific 3561 02:25:57,100 --> 02:25:59,700 larger depending on specific instruments that we use F 3562 02:25:59,700 --> 02:26:01,267 instruments that we use F statistics, which I probably 3563 02:26:01,267 --> 02:26:02,033 statistics, which I probably have in this flight, I won’t 3564 02:26:02,033 --> 02:26:08,632 have in this flight, I won’t get to or large, okay. so if I 3565 02:26:08,632 --> 02:26:11,066 get to or large, okay. so if I could do so I I will jump the 3566 02:26:11,066 --> 02:26:16,733 could do so I I will jump the conclusion here so we also look 3567 02:26:16,733 --> 02:26:20,332 conclusion here so we also look at the. To the credit markets 3568 02:26:20,332 --> 02:26:23,298 at the. To the credit markets and the loans tend to be larger 3569 02:26:23,298 --> 02:26:25,899 and the loans tend to be larger where local credit markets are 3570 02:26:25,899 --> 02:26:27,466 where local credit markets are less developed to measure in 3571 02:26:27,466 --> 02:26:29,966 less developed to measure in various ways we try to look at 3572 02:26:29,966 --> 02:26:31,866 various ways we try to look at this placement and we have some 3573 02:26:31,866 --> 02:26:33,434 this placement and we have some methods that we’re able to 3574 02:26:33,434 --> 02:26:35,434 methods that we’re able to measure it. We find only small 3575 02:26:35,434 --> 02:26:38,900 measure it. We find only small displacement of that. And I’m 3576 02:26:38,900 --> 02:26:40,500 displacement of that. And I’m prepared to believe that a very 3577 02:26:40,500 --> 02:26:43,266 prepared to believe that a very amount of this allegation of 3578 02:26:43,266 --> 02:26:45,367 amount of this allegation of employment across from and 3579 02:26:45,367 --> 02:26:49,066 employment across from and that’s in the area of research 3580 02:26:49,066 --> 02:26:50,700 that’s in the area of research so we think that this evidence 3581 02:26:50,700 --> 02:26:53,533 so we think that this evidence that these recipients these 3582 02:26:53,533 --> 02:26:57,167 that these recipients these microphones on your credit. and 3583 02:26:57,167 --> 02:26:58,900 microphones on your credit. and if we make some assumptions 3584 02:26:58,900 --> 02:27:00,100 if we make some assumptions about the access to 3585 02:27:00,100 --> 02:27:01,966 about the access to conventional finance in the 3586 02:27:01,966 --> 02:27:04,498 conventional finance in the estimate, it’s also by a lower 3587 02:27:04,498 --> 02:27:06,599 estimate, it’s also by a lower balance on the growth effects, 3588 02:27:06,599 --> 02:27:07,666 balance on the growth effects, financial access more 3589 02:27:07,666 --> 02:27:11,201 financial access more generally. Thank you all for 3590 02:27:11,201 --> 02:27:15,733 generally. Thank you all for your attention. Okay. Thank 3591 02:27:15,733 --> 02:27:17,232 your attention. Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much and 3592 02:27:17,232 --> 02:27:20,000 you. Thank you very much and the connection was held well 3593 02:27:20,000 --> 02:27:21,600 the connection was held well given given the place we are on 3594 02:27:21,600 --> 02:27:24,600 given given the place we are on the circumstances I have a 3595 02:27:24,600 --> 02:27:26,834 the circumstances I have a couple of comments on on on all 3596 02:27:26,834 --> 02:27:28,100 couple of comments on on on all presentations afterwards very 3597 02:27:28,100 --> 02:27:30,367 presentations afterwards very quick, but I would like now to 3598 02:27:30,367 --> 02:27:32,200 quick, but I would like now to give the floor to the next 3599 02:27:32,200 --> 02:27:35,667 give the floor to the next paper, which is from the EIF So 3600 02:27:35,667 --> 02:27:36,866 paper, which is from the EIF So Elwood Kenai is online, but I 3601 02:27:36,866 --> 02:27:40,500 Elwood Kenai is online, but I think it’s in who is going to 3602 02:27:40,500 --> 02:27:42,333 think it’s in who is going to present the impact assessment 3603 02:27:42,333 --> 02:27:45,733 present the impact assessment at the at the year. 3604 02:28:21,567 --> 02:28:24,633 So, 3605 02:28:28,367 --> 02:28:31,500 Alright. 3606 02:28:35,066 --> 02:28:37,266 Should be able to see my 3607 02:28:37,266 --> 02:28:41,100 Should be able to see my presentation? Yes, it works. 3608 02:28:41,100 --> 02:28:43,733 presentation? Yes, it works. Thank you. okay. Alright. So I 3609 02:28:43,733 --> 02:28:46,333 Thank you. okay. Alright. So I think I’ll I I remove my video 3610 02:28:46,333 --> 02:28:48,834 think I’ll I I remove my video but I’ll try with the video. 3611 02:28:48,834 --> 02:28:49,800 but I’ll try with the video. I’m afraid that the connection 3612 02:28:49,800 --> 02:28:51,733 I’m afraid that the connection I cannot do so much. so I’ll 3613 02:28:51,733 --> 02:28:53,867 I cannot do so much. so I’ll try to make it work like this. 3614 02:28:53,867 --> 02:28:57,567 try to make it work like this. Let me know and I will so think 3615 02:28:57,567 --> 02:29:01,633 Let me know and I will so think about for to. be happy to be 3616 02:29:01,633 --> 02:29:07,733 about for to. be happy to be here and I just my work. 3617 02:29:08,199 --> 02:29:11,466 it’s the law. 3618 02:29:14,666 --> 02:29:17,933 Alright. 3619 02:29:20,766 --> 02:29:25,298 It should be better now. 3620 02:29:25,500 --> 02:29:28,765 I tried to to continue so I was 3621 02:29:28,765 --> 02:29:29,800 I tried to to continue so I was saying thank you very much for 3622 02:29:29,800 --> 02:29:32,067 saying thank you very much for the opportunity to discuss not 3623 02:29:32,067 --> 02:29:34,732 the opportunity to discuss not just my work but the work of 3624 02:29:34,732 --> 02:29:36,366 just my work but the work of the research and analysis 3625 02:29:36,366 --> 02:29:38,067 the research and analysis a-team and the division at the 3626 02:29:38,067 --> 02:29:41,633 a-team and the division at the at the yy headed by Almon Kass 3627 02:29:41,633 --> 02:29:44,800 at the yy headed by Almon Kass Weis in the meeting with in the 3628 02:29:44,800 --> 02:29:48,199 Weis in the meeting with in the conference so in case of some 3629 02:29:48,199 --> 02:29:49,466 conference so in case of some nasty question I would be happy 3630 02:29:49,466 --> 02:29:52,599 nasty question I would be happy to revert the situation to him 3631 02:29:52,599 --> 02:29:54,498 to revert the situation to him but actually what I want to do 3632 02:29:54,498 --> 02:29:58,765 but actually what I want to do today is to kind of 3633 02:30:26,500 --> 02:30:28,866 Which is a Central strategic 3634 02:30:28,866 --> 02:30:30,367 Which is a Central strategic document that shifts the 3635 02:30:30,367 --> 02:30:31,933 document that shifts the activity of the institution one 3636 02:30:31,933 --> 02:30:34,600 activity of the institution one of the main objectives of my 3637 02:30:34,600 --> 02:30:37,000 of the main objectives of my vision is in fact to Aol effect 3638 02:30:37,000 --> 02:30:39,766 vision is in fact to Aol effect of the EF instruments and the 3639 02:30:39,766 --> 02:30:40,966 of the EF instruments and the way they approach this The kind 3640 02:30:40,966 --> 02:30:43,234 way they approach this The kind of team is a combination of 3641 02:30:43,234 --> 02:30:43,767 of team is a combination of marketing intelligence 3642 02:30:43,767 --> 02:30:46,367 marketing intelligence communities here on the right 3643 02:30:46,367 --> 02:30:49,466 communities here on the right side. That’s what they look for 3644 02:30:49,466 --> 02:30:52,466 side. That’s what they look for in the current situation for 3645 02:30:52,466 --> 02:30:54,034 in the current situation for outlook and also impact the 3646 02:30:54,034 --> 02:30:56,200 outlook and also impact the assessment activity, which are 3647 02:30:56,200 --> 02:30:58,234 assessment activity, which are by nature about courting of 3648 02:30:58,234 --> 02:30:59,900 by nature about courting of course the two branches of our 3649 02:30:59,900 --> 02:31:01,432 course the two branches of our MA’s activity are mentoring 3650 02:31:01,432 --> 02:31:03,601 MA’s activity are mentoring reinforce and validate each 3651 02:31:03,601 --> 02:31:05,432 reinforce and validate each other our main product that 3652 02:31:05,432 --> 02:31:07,966 other our main product that they are the EF four papers and 3653 02:31:07,966 --> 02:31:09,432 they are the EF four papers and reports and today I will try to 3654 02:31:09,432 --> 02:31:11,633 reports and today I will try to give a brief overview of our 3655 02:31:11,633 --> 02:31:13,298 give a brief overview of our recent research production in 3656 02:31:13,298 --> 02:31:15,232 recent research production in the last five years or so 3657 02:31:15,232 --> 02:31:16,099 the last five years or so needless to say we will not be 3658 02:31:16,099 --> 02:31:18,132 needless to say we will not be able to go into much detail so. 3659 02:31:18,132 --> 02:31:19,866 able to go into much detail so. Very happy to receive a free 3660 02:31:19,866 --> 02:31:22,366 Very happy to receive a free questions towards the end let’s 3661 02:31:22,366 --> 02:31:27,133 questions towards the end let’s start with longer works 3662 02:31:27,133 --> 02:31:29,634 start with longer works activity at the EF for which 3663 02:31:29,634 --> 02:31:33,933 activity at the EF for which benefit from this benefits from 3664 02:31:33,933 --> 02:31:35,600 benefit from this benefits from being on the back of our to 3665 02:31:35,600 --> 02:31:39,133 being on the back of our to interventions. the perhaps the 3666 02:31:39,133 --> 02:31:42,233 interventions. the perhaps the main difference or the main 3667 02:31:42,233 --> 02:31:46,333 main difference or the main explanation of the is that the 3668 02:31:46,333 --> 02:31:47,733 explanation of the is that the loan portfolio activity of the 3669 02:31:47,733 --> 02:31:52,367 loan portfolio activity of the F means that whenever. 3670 02:32:23,433 --> 02:32:25,001 documents in the last year, so 3671 02:32:25,001 --> 02:32:26,867 documents in the last year, so we’ll actually mostly talk 3672 02:32:26,867 --> 02:32:28,800 we’ll actually mostly talk about this last vacation put 3673 02:32:28,800 --> 02:32:31,767 about this last vacation put together the study look at 3674 02:32:31,767 --> 02:32:33,233 together the study look at $360000 guaranteed loans this 3675 02:32:33,233 --> 02:32:36,834 $360000 guaranteed loans this first between 2000 and 2016 and 3676 02:32:36,834 --> 02:32:39,233 first between 2000 and 2016 and two flagship European Union 3677 02:32:39,233 --> 02:32:41,267 two flagship European Union framework programs called the 3678 02:32:41,267 --> 02:32:43,666 framework programs called the map and the analyzed loans 3679 02:32:43,666 --> 02:32:46,866 map and the analyzed loans analysis. it looks at 22 3680 02:32:46,866 --> 02:32:50,100 analysis. it looks at 22 billion euros of. In the 3681 02:32:50,100 --> 02:32:50,900 billion euros of. In the supported loans and funds 3682 02:32:50,900 --> 02:32:52,767 supported loans and funds across 19 countries We 3683 02:32:52,767 --> 02:32:54,800 across 19 countries We represent or this two numbers 3684 02:32:54,800 --> 02:32:57,133 represent or this two numbers represent 60 percent of all the 3685 02:32:57,133 --> 02:32:58,600 represent 60 percent of all the activity under these two 3686 02:32:58,600 --> 02:33:00,898 activity under these two framework programs because of 3687 02:33:00,898 --> 02:33:02,366 framework programs because of the wide and diverse 3688 02:33:02,366 --> 02:33:03,699 the wide and diverse geographical coverage, I would 3689 02:33:03,699 --> 02:33:05,298 geographical coverage, I would argue that we have or we can 3690 02:33:05,298 --> 02:33:07,032 argue that we have or we can get a rather comprehensive 3691 02:33:07,032 --> 02:33:08,700 get a rather comprehensive picture of the effects of 3692 02:33:08,700 --> 02:33:09,698 picture of the effects of guaranteed loans you should 3693 02:33:09,698 --> 02:33:13,032 guaranteed loans you should under these programs. now when 3694 02:33:13,032 --> 02:33:14,599 under these programs. now when we compare ssss that received a 3695 02:33:14,599 --> 02:33:16,599 we compare ssss that received a yes but longer guarantee with 3696 02:33:16,599 --> 02:33:19,001 yes but longer guarantee with similar ssss that did not and 3697 02:33:19,001 --> 02:33:21,432 similar ssss that did not and marching and. Already 3698 02:33:21,432 --> 02:33:23,698 marching and. Already explained. the insights on the 3699 02:33:23,698 --> 02:33:24,333 explained. the insights on the methodology that applies in 3700 02:33:24,333 --> 02:33:26,000 methodology that applies in such comparison, we find that 3701 02:33:26,000 --> 02:33:28,233 such comparison, we find that there had this company is 3702 02:33:28,233 --> 02:33:30,898 there had this company is growing in size, much like in 3703 02:33:30,898 --> 02:33:32,498 growing in size, much like in their studies and this process 3704 02:33:32,498 --> 02:33:33,733 their studies and this process can be appreciated across 3705 02:33:33,733 --> 02:33:35,834 can be appreciated across several dimensions as shown in 3706 02:33:35,834 --> 02:33:38,466 several dimensions as shown in this light that our marketing 3707 02:33:38,466 --> 02:33:39,800 this light that our marketing and comes in loads when they 3708 02:33:39,800 --> 02:33:42,600 and comes in loads when they have the chance the variation 3709 02:33:42,600 --> 02:33:43,800 have the chance the variation across the country is also 3710 02:33:43,800 --> 02:33:45,266 across the country is also quite remarkable across the 3711 02:33:45,266 --> 02:33:46,100 quite remarkable across the different studies and across 3712 02:33:46,100 --> 02:33:48,333 different studies and across the different results. but let 3713 02:33:48,333 --> 02:33:50,066 the different results. but let me say that this variation is 3714 02:33:50,066 --> 02:33:52,066 me say that this variation is mostly explained by Ara 3715 02:33:52,066 --> 02:33:52,634 mostly explained by Ara characteristics of the 3716 02:33:52,634 --> 02:33:54,066 characteristics of the artificial ssss which in 3717 02:33:54,066 --> 02:33:55,500 artificial ssss which in technical terms, we call a 3718 02:33:55,500 --> 02:33:58,500 technical terms, we call a mode. 3719 02:35:25,733 --> 02:35:28,599 Group for visit companies I 3720 02:35:28,599 --> 02:35:31,766 Group for visit companies I used different. the others 3721 02:35:31,766 --> 02:35:33,500 used different. the others don’t need to more difficult 3722 02:35:33,500 --> 02:35:36,366 don’t need to more difficult than the kids. balance and 3723 02:35:36,366 --> 02:35:37,499 than the kids. balance and strategies a little bit more 3724 02:35:37,499 --> 02:35:39,333 strategies a little bit more predictable than the strategy 3725 02:35:39,333 --> 02:35:41,066 predictable than the strategy of venture capital investors 3726 02:35:41,066 --> 02:35:43,032 of venture capital investors with typically rely on much 3727 02:35:43,032 --> 02:35:45,632 with typically rely on much more intangible characteristic 3728 02:35:45,632 --> 02:35:47,133 more intangible characteristic of the business that they 3729 02:35:47,133 --> 02:35:49,366 of the business that they decide to invest in. I want of 3730 02:35:49,366 --> 02:35:50,566 decide to invest in. I want of time to discuss the how the 3731 02:35:50,566 --> 02:35:52,632 time to discuss the how the details, but the paper also or 3732 02:35:52,632 --> 02:35:54,232 details, but the paper also or invite you to read the you can 3733 02:35:54,232 --> 02:35:56,833 invite you to read the you can read or. To ask me a question 3734 02:35:56,833 --> 02:35:58,633 read or. To ask me a question question later for now, let’s 3735 02:35:58,633 --> 02:35:59,467 question later for now, let’s just assume that we’ve done our 3736 02:35:59,467 --> 02:36:01,298 just assume that we’ve done our job properly and when we 3737 02:36:01,298 --> 02:36:02,566 job properly and when we compared it to the group once 3738 02:36:02,566 --> 02:36:04,365 compared it to the group once again we that we see 3739 02:36:04,365 --> 02:36:05,665 again we that we see investments provide a boost to 3740 02:36:05,665 --> 02:36:08,433 investments provide a boost to the start up size the start-up 3741 02:36:08,433 --> 02:36:09,732 the start up size the start-up experiences for the growth 3742 02:36:09,732 --> 02:36:12,032 experiences for the growth because all capitalized 3743 02:36:12,032 --> 02:36:13,733 because all capitalized generates more revenues and 3744 02:36:13,733 --> 02:36:15,032 generates more revenues and hires more. The magnitude of 3745 02:36:15,032 --> 02:36:16,999 hires more. The magnitude of the effect you can see on the 3746 02:36:16,999 --> 02:36:20,166 the effect you can see on the right-hand 3747 02:36:20,166 --> 02:36:20,232 right-hand it’s other 3748 02:36:20,232 --> 02:36:20,898 it’s other than the kids of the 3749 02:36:20,898 --> 02:36:22,001 it’s other than the kids of the seventies, but it’s actually 3750 02:36:22,001 --> 02:36:23,698 seventies, but it’s actually unfair to compare to 3751 02:36:23,698 --> 02:36:25,767 unfair to compare to instruments because. To other 3752 02:36:25,767 --> 02:36:26,998 instruments because. To other different segments of the 3753 02:36:26,998 --> 02:36:29,667 different segments of the population, it is also worth 3754 02:36:29,667 --> 02:36:30,333 population, it is also worth mentioning that the seat backs 3755 02:36:30,333 --> 02:36:32,033 mentioning that the seat backs startups grow more by 3756 02:36:32,033 --> 02:36:34,332 startups grow more by sacrificing short term profits. 3757 02:36:34,332 --> 02:36:35,333 sacrificing short term profits. although we do not see your 3758 02:36:35,333 --> 02:36:37,566 although we do not see your bill cost inefficiencies, both 3759 02:36:37,566 --> 02:36:40,332 bill cost inefficiencies, both whether we see model but other 3760 02:36:40,332 --> 02:36:41,532 whether we see model but other teams that start ups tend to 3761 02:36:41,532 --> 02:36:43,432 teams that start ups tend to prioritize scaling up over you 3762 02:36:43,432 --> 02:36:44,866 prioritize scaling up over you know becoming profitable and 3763 02:36:44,866 --> 02:36:46,099 know becoming profitable and actually the venture capital 3764 02:36:46,099 --> 02:36:46,999 actually the venture capital money is there to help them 3765 02:36:46,999 --> 02:36:51,132 money is there to help them reach the target faster. you 3766 02:36:51,132 --> 02:36:52,566 reach the target faster. you might have noticed that we 3767 02:36:52,566 --> 02:36:54,366 might have noticed that we added an EIS perspective to our 3768 02:36:54,366 --> 02:36:56,498 added an EIS perspective to our series of venture capital 3769 02:36:56,498 --> 02:36:57,832 series of venture capital publications, but because 3770 02:36:57,832 --> 02:36:59,301 publications, but because Indeed, we were looking at the 3771 02:36:59,301 --> 02:37:01,733 Indeed, we were looking at the year and capital portfolio that 3772 02:37:01,733 --> 02:37:03,298 year and capital portfolio that is certainly not a random 3773 02:37:03,298 --> 02:37:05,532 is certainly not a random sample of the of the overall 3774 02:37:05,532 --> 02:37:08,300 sample of the of the overall essy system and we wanted to 3775 02:37:08,300 --> 02:37:11,698 essy system and we wanted to expand this couple 3776 02:37:12,467 --> 02:37:13,200 and with the overall este and 3777 02:37:13,200 --> 02:37:14,232 and with the overall este and to do so we partnered with the 3778 02:37:14,232 --> 02:37:16,099 to do so we partnered with the investor European Private 3779 02:37:16,099 --> 02:37:19,266 investor European Private equity venture capital for our 3780 02:37:19,266 --> 02:37:20,132 equity venture capital for our Wess been playing with the idea 3781 02:37:20,132 --> 02:37:22,001 Wess been playing with the idea of to compress this one 3782 02:37:22,001 --> 02:37:25,500 of to compress this one hundreds of pages of Secretary 3783 02:37:25,500 --> 02:37:27,032 hundreds of pages of Secretary research into our short report 3784 02:37:27,032 --> 02:37:28,065 research into our short report that would also be accessible 3785 02:37:28,065 --> 02:37:31,898 that would also be accessible to non technical. 3786 02:37:43,832 --> 02:37:47,367 Auto start with this one this 3787 02:37:47,367 --> 02:37:51,300 Auto start with this one this is a version of a link below 3788 02:37:51,300 --> 02:37:52,100 is a version of a link below the most interesting insight 3789 02:37:52,100 --> 02:37:54,000 the most interesting insight from this world is that the 3790 02:37:54,000 --> 02:37:55,767 from this world is that the impact of venture capital seems 3791 02:37:55,767 --> 02:37:57,466 impact of venture capital seems to work differently for 3792 02:37:57,466 --> 02:37:59,266 to work differently for different Ipos of of 3793 02:37:59,266 --> 02:38:00,066 different Ipos of of fast-growing companies, the 3794 02:38:00,066 --> 02:38:02,100 fast-growing companies, the topic of moderator and 3795 02:38:02,100 --> 02:38:03,599 topic of moderator and moderating comes up again. It 3796 02:38:03,599 --> 02:38:06,066 moderating comes up again. It was not so much the 3797 02:38:06,066 --> 02:38:07,233 was not so much the characteristics so the 3798 02:38:07,233 --> 02:38:09,199 characteristics so the geography and the size and what 3799 02:38:09,199 --> 02:38:11,132 geography and the size and what not. but it seemed that that 3800 02:38:11,132 --> 02:38:14,000 not. but it seemed that that sets that get BC and perform 3801 02:38:14,000 --> 02:38:15,032 sets that get BC and perform all the you have done so 3802 02:38:15,032 --> 02:38:18,232 all the you have done so anyway. 3803 02:38:45,334 --> 02:38:48,733 Of these companies of the less 3804 02:38:48,733 --> 02:38:50,199 Of these companies of the less performing ones will not for 3805 02:38:50,199 --> 02:38:52,732 performing ones will not for them we have made such a big 3806 02:38:52,732 --> 02:38:56,133 them we have made such a big difference. Another negative. 3807 02:38:56,133 --> 02:38:59,499 difference. Another negative. There are several dimensions 3808 02:38:59,499 --> 02:39:01,267 There are several dimensions this one there are several 3809 02:39:01,267 --> 02:39:02,666 this one there are several dimensions of the impact that 3810 02:39:02,666 --> 02:39:04,733 dimensions of the impact that are more difficult to talk to 3811 02:39:04,733 --> 02:39:05,566 are more difficult to talk to many records to official 3812 02:39:05,566 --> 02:39:07,999 many records to official statistics and other other data 3813 02:39:07,999 --> 02:39:09,633 statistics and other other data sources. So for this reason we 3814 02:39:09,633 --> 02:39:11,966 sources. So for this reason we started in 2018 a series of 3815 02:39:11,966 --> 02:39:13,634 started in 2018 a series of surveys focusing on the various 3816 02:39:13,634 --> 02:39:15,800 surveys focusing on the various segments of the European Equity 3817 02:39:15,800 --> 02:39:19,700 segments of the European Equity market by the I F where the 3818 02:39:19,700 --> 02:39:21,100 market by the I F where the directed to our partners 3819 02:39:21,100 --> 02:39:22,733 directed to our partners European Fund managers 3820 02:39:22,733 --> 02:39:24,266 European Fund managers investors for their view our 3821 02:39:24,266 --> 02:39:25,800 investors for their view our activity. We also serve with 3822 02:39:25,800 --> 02:39:27,200 activity. We also serve with the investors that are not 3823 02:39:27,200 --> 02:39:28,367 the investors that are not partnering with us so that we 3824 02:39:28,367 --> 02:39:32,233 partnering with us so that we can get a better. 3825 02:40:13,766 --> 02:40:15,265 Coin investing alongside 3826 02:40:15,265 --> 02:40:17,266 Coin investing alongside experience Business Angels 3827 02:40:17,266 --> 02:40:21,699 experience Business Angels across Europe while Europeans 3828 02:40:21,699 --> 02:40:23,167 across Europe while Europeans Fund on started back in 20 to 3829 02:40:23,167 --> 02:40:25,532 Fund on started back in 20 to 12 with most of the activities 3830 02:40:25,532 --> 02:40:29,265 12 with most of the activities actually filling up in 2016 in 3831 02:40:29,265 --> 02:40:30,733 actually filling up in 2016 in disruptor in the paper, we laid 3832 02:40:30,733 --> 02:40:33,066 disruptor in the paper, we laid the groundwork for future 3833 02:40:33,066 --> 02:40:34,733 the groundwork for future contracts by looking at the 3834 02:40:34,733 --> 02:40:36,365 contracts by looking at the characteristics of the 3835 02:40:36,365 --> 02:40:41,366 characteristics of the investors that are business. 3836 02:40:41,366 --> 02:40:42,066 investors that are business. important to startups that 3837 02:40:42,066 --> 02:40:43,266 important to startups that invested in, for example, in 3838 02:40:43,266 --> 02:40:45,067 invested in, for example, in time, you can see that the 3839 02:40:45,067 --> 02:40:48,232 time, you can see that the first. 3840 02:41:51,767 --> 02:41:53,633 Theys of the 30 - two because 3841 02:41:53,633 --> 02:41:56,200 Theys of the 30 - two because they can affect the size or the 3842 02:41:56,200 --> 02:41:57,233 they can affect the size or the fact the presence of the 3843 02:41:57,233 --> 02:41:58,634 fact the presence of the economic impact in some cases, 3844 02:41:58,634 --> 02:42:00,366 economic impact in some cases, so there is no one economic 3845 02:42:00,366 --> 02:42:02,299 so there is no one economic impact that can be the 34 3846 02:42:02,299 --> 02:42:03,700 impact that can be the 34 scene. But of course it will 3847 02:42:03,700 --> 02:42:05,500 scene. But of course it will depend on the characteristics 3848 02:42:05,500 --> 02:42:08,300 depend on the characteristics of the final recipients of 3849 02:42:08,300 --> 02:42:12,233 of the final recipients of course, by nature impacts are 3850 02:42:12,233 --> 02:42:14,800 course, by nature impacts are best with and Adan so it would 3851 02:42:14,800 --> 02:42:17,400 best with and Adan so it would be the job of future impacts to 3852 02:42:17,400 --> 02:42:19,767 be the job of future impacts to their effectiveness of the car. 3853 02:42:19,767 --> 02:42:22,900 their effectiveness of the car. early. 3854 02:42:55,233 --> 02:42:56,833 Okay. Thank you very much. I 3855 02:42:56,833 --> 02:42:59,033 Okay. Thank you very much. I hope you’re still hear me I had 3856 02:42:59,033 --> 02:43:01,866 hope you’re still hear me I had to change in between. Yeah 3857 02:43:01,866 --> 02:43:03,300 to change in between. Yeah perfect. Thank you very much. 3858 02:43:03,300 --> 02:43:04,833 perfect. Thank you very much. so I give I give the floor now 3859 02:43:04,833 --> 02:43:08,566 so I give I give the floor now to our colleagues of the of the 3860 02:43:08,566 --> 02:43:10,200 to our colleagues of the of the ECB so more recent colleagues 3861 02:43:10,200 --> 02:43:11,833 ECB so more recent colleagues of mine and I’m glad to be back 3862 02:43:11,833 --> 02:43:16,300 of mine and I’m glad to be back in touch with them a bit by 3863 02:43:16,300 --> 02:43:16,800 in touch with them a bit by Goss for a Jada, I think 3864 02:43:16,800 --> 02:43:19,900 Goss for a Jada, I think material is going to present an 3865 02:43:19,900 --> 02:43:21,633 material is going to present an impact assessment of state 3866 02:43:21,633 --> 02:43:26,700 impact assessment of state guarantees on loans so Mateo. 3867 02:43:26,700 --> 02:43:32,167 guarantees on loans so Mateo. You. if you’re ready. 3868 02:43:39,333 --> 02:43:42,533 Can you hear me now? Yes, 3869 02:43:42,533 --> 02:43:46,066 Can you hear me now? Yes, that’s very good. So if you 3870 02:43:46,066 --> 02:43:46,533 that’s very good. So if you share yours will be able to 3871 02:43:46,533 --> 02:43:47,467 share yours will be able to read with you what you want to 3872 02:43:47,467 --> 02:43:49,800 read with you what you want to say Thank you for my 3873 02:43:49,800 --> 02:43:52,966 say Thank you for my presentation so Katya will we 3874 02:43:52,966 --> 02:43:57,266 presentation so Katya will we will have the presentation. 3875 02:43:58,000 --> 02:44:01,766 And I will tell you when to 3876 02:44:01,766 --> 02:44:03,700 And I will tell you when to switch flights. thanks a lot. 3877 02:44:03,700 --> 02:44:06,766 switch flights. thanks a lot. okay. 3878 02:44:16,232 --> 02:44:18,965 Just for inviting us, I’m going 3879 02:44:18,965 --> 02:44:20,500 Just for inviting us, I’m going to present a joint work with 3880 02:44:20,500 --> 02:44:21,900 to present a joint work with Ugo Bassi, who is in the 3881 02:44:21,900 --> 02:44:23,800 Ugo Bassi, who is in the audience and which summarizes 3882 02:44:23,800 --> 02:44:25,733 audience and which summarizes the work carried out in recent 3883 02:44:25,733 --> 02:44:27,632 the work carried out in recent months of public and in our 3884 02:44:27,632 --> 02:44:29,132 months of public and in our departments, which are 3885 02:44:29,132 --> 02:44:29,832 departments, which are financial stability and 3886 02:44:29,832 --> 02:44:33,500 financial stability and monetary policy respective so 3887 02:44:33,500 --> 02:44:35,901 monetary policy respective so next slide please so as you 3888 02:44:35,901 --> 02:44:37,233 next slide please so as you know, the and then you can 3889 02:44:37,233 --> 02:44:37,966 know, the and then you can dramatically affected the 3890 02:44:37,966 --> 02:44:39,800 dramatically affected the global economic activity is 3891 02:44:39,800 --> 02:44:41,732 global economic activity is much and the US economy is no 3892 02:44:41,732 --> 02:44:43,933 much and the US economy is no exception. so, according to our 3893 02:44:43,933 --> 02:44:45,932 exception. so, according to our latest projections, GDP, the US 3894 02:44:45,932 --> 02:44:48,100 latest projections, GDP, the US is projected to fall by around 3895 02:44:48,100 --> 02:44:49,032 is projected to fall by around the nine percent of this year 3896 02:44:49,032 --> 02:44:52,365 the nine percent of this year as shown in the child on. Side. 3897 02:44:52,365 --> 02:44:54,333 as shown in the child on. Side. And then, of course the 3898 02:44:54,333 --> 02:44:55,500 And then, of course the economic contraction of this 3899 02:44:55,500 --> 02:44:57,500 economic contraction of this magnitude mayle lenders to 3900 02:44:57,500 --> 02:44:58,898 magnitude mayle lenders to become extremely discovers the 3901 02:44:58,898 --> 02:45:01,233 become extremely discovers the by generating adverse financial 3902 02:45:01,233 --> 02:45:02,965 by generating adverse financial feedback groups that would 3903 02:45:02,965 --> 02:45:05,432 feedback groups that would delay the economically. Let me 3904 02:45:05,432 --> 02:45:07,298 delay the economically. Let me stress here that the banking 3905 02:45:07,298 --> 02:45:08,498 stress here that the banking sector seems to be a better 3906 02:45:08,498 --> 02:45:10,199 sector seems to be a better position to absorb the 3907 02:45:10,199 --> 02:45:11,466 position to absorb the macroeconomic shocks compared 3908 02:45:11,466 --> 02:45:13,566 macroeconomic shocks compared with past crisis episodes. 3909 02:45:13,566 --> 02:45:14,666 with past crisis episodes. However, you’re at a Bank 3910 02:45:14,666 --> 02:45:16,465 However, you’re at a Bank Center of the crisis with 3911 02:45:16,465 --> 02:45:17,999 Center of the crisis with already tobu of viability, 3912 02:45:17,999 --> 02:45:19,666 already tobu of viability, which implies that banks will 3913 02:45:19,666 --> 02:45:21,432 which implies that banks will have less income available to 3914 02:45:21,432 --> 02:45:22,898 have less income available to offset the losses and indeed 3915 02:45:22,898 --> 02:45:25,966 offset the losses and indeed that. 3916 02:45:55,100 --> 02:45:55,966 That guarantee program have 3917 02:45:55,966 --> 02:45:58,199 That guarantee program have also been launched at the local 3918 02:45:58,199 --> 02:46:01,032 also been launched at the local level as well as at the Super 3919 02:46:01,032 --> 02:46:02,166 level as well as at the Super National level, like, for 3920 02:46:02,166 --> 02:46:03,965 National level, like, for example upon European Guan by 3921 02:46:03,965 --> 02:46:06,366 example upon European Guan by the European Investment Bank 3922 02:46:06,366 --> 02:46:09,766 the European Investment Bank and the next is like this. as 3923 02:46:09,766 --> 02:46:11,298 and the next is like this. as they guarantee schemes of the 3924 02:46:11,298 --> 02:46:12,067 they guarantee schemes of the third means that the National 3925 02:46:12,067 --> 02:46:14,433 third means that the National level the futures, including 3926 02:46:14,433 --> 02:46:15,965 level the futures, including the size eligibility criteria, 3927 02:46:15,965 --> 02:46:18,232 the size eligibility criteria, but I Mariah cross countries 3928 02:46:18,232 --> 02:46:19,633 but I Mariah cross countries most of the parameters are 3929 02:46:19,633 --> 02:46:21,032 most of the parameters are based on the European 3930 02:46:21,032 --> 02:46:22,232 based on the European Commission, temporary framework 3931 02:46:22,232 --> 02:46:25,032 Commission, temporary framework for 19 support measures schemes 3932 02:46:25,032 --> 02:46:28,065 for 19 support measures schemes are. 3933 02:47:42,700 --> 02:47:44,433 Somewhat in June and the 3934 02:47:44,433 --> 02:47:45,698 Somewhat in June and the available data is already until 3935 02:47:45,698 --> 02:47:47,298 available data is already until mid month You need to learn 3936 02:47:47,298 --> 02:47:49,933 mid month You need to learn that have been Barts as a 3937 02:47:49,933 --> 02:47:51,565 that have been Barts as a reflected in a very low take-up 3938 02:47:51,565 --> 02:47:54,067 reflected in a very low take-up in that month, But now, it 3939 02:47:54,067 --> 02:47:56,333 in that month, But now, it seems that this bottom xel 3940 02:47:56,333 --> 02:47:58,099 seems that this bottom xel vanishing Byrd the trend in the 3941 02:47:58,099 --> 02:47:59,565 vanishing Byrd the trend in the industry Up until the end the 3942 02:47:59,565 --> 02:48:01,966 industry Up until the end the end of the year we can estimate 3943 02:48:01,966 --> 02:48:04,365 end of the year we can estimate another of around one third of 3944 02:48:04,365 --> 02:48:05,965 another of around one third of the total size of the program, 3945 02:48:05,965 --> 02:48:07,298 the total size of the program, and this number will be used as 3946 02:48:07,298 --> 02:48:09,698 and this number will be used as a assumption for the scenarios 3947 02:48:09,698 --> 02:48:10,632 a assumption for the scenarios presented in the next two 3948 02:48:10,632 --> 02:48:15,932 presented in the next two slides next. This So we first 3949 02:48:15,932 --> 02:48:19,166 slides next. This So we first computer. 3950 02:48:48,599 --> 02:48:52,099 I’m out of cash and alternative 3951 02:48:52,099 --> 02:48:53,965 I’m out of cash and alternative scenarios expected the losses 3952 02:48:53,965 --> 02:48:55,566 scenarios expected the losses are estimated to be quite to 3953 02:48:55,566 --> 02:48:57,298 are estimated to be quite to quite large up to seven percent 3954 02:48:57,298 --> 02:48:59,399 quite large up to seven percent of spending amounts of loans to 3955 02:48:59,399 --> 02:49:01,166 of spending amounts of loans to refer for the euro area. This 3956 02:49:01,166 --> 02:49:02,300 refer for the euro area. This is the mid point of the blue 3957 02:49:02,300 --> 02:49:05,032 is the mid point of the blue Bar on the left. However, the 3958 02:49:05,032 --> 02:49:06,632 Bar on the left. However, the this person cost is high, 3959 02:49:06,632 --> 02:49:08,866 this person cost is high, suggesting that estimates are 3960 02:49:08,866 --> 02:49:11,066 suggesting that estimates are surrounded by high uncertainty 3961 02:49:11,066 --> 02:49:13,432 surrounded by high uncertainty We underestimate the impact of 3962 02:49:13,432 --> 02:49:14,632 We underestimate the impact of guarantees on Bank closes so 3963 02:49:14,632 --> 02:49:16,632 guarantees on Bank closes so that panel of the chat on the 3964 02:49:16,632 --> 02:49:18,100 that panel of the chat on the right side shows the share of 3965 02:49:18,100 --> 02:49:19,832 right side shows the share of losses avoided the new to the 3966 02:49:19,832 --> 02:49:23,399 losses avoided the new to the Guan assuming the final. Of one 3967 02:49:23,399 --> 02:49:25,533 Guan assuming the final. Of one -third as mentioned earlier and 3968 02:49:25,533 --> 02:49:27,332 -third as mentioned earlier and then the alternative scenario 3969 02:49:27,332 --> 02:49:28,099 then the alternative scenario for economic growth and 3970 02:49:28,099 --> 02:49:30,166 for economic growth and corporate cash flows guarantees 3971 02:49:30,166 --> 02:49:31,766 corporate cash flows guarantees are estimated to avoid part of 3972 02:49:31,766 --> 02:49:33,799 are estimated to avoid part of the defaults with loss is 3973 02:49:33,799 --> 02:49:35,298 the defaults with loss is decreasing by about about five 3974 02:49:35,298 --> 02:49:36,898 decreasing by about about five percent in the Eur Andra 3975 02:49:36,898 --> 02:49:39,632 percent in the Eur Andra compared to without the the 3976 02:49:39,632 --> 02:49:41,799 compared to without the the schemes of course, the schemes 3977 02:49:41,799 --> 02:49:43,233 schemes of course, the schemes are expected to reduce losses 3978 02:49:43,233 --> 02:49:44,833 are expected to reduce losses and cut by banks and corporate 3979 02:49:44,833 --> 02:49:46,065 and cut by banks and corporate loans, but also to transfer 3980 02:49:46,065 --> 02:49:48,599 loans, but also to transfer some of the remaining Vad risk 3981 02:49:48,599 --> 02:49:49,966 some of the remaining Vad risk governments so the local panel 3982 02:49:49,966 --> 02:49:51,932 governments so the local panel of the child the right side 3983 02:49:51,932 --> 02:49:53,032 of the child the right side shows this made the shadow of 3984 02:49:53,032 --> 02:49:55,566 shows this made the shadow of the remaining banks’ covered by 3985 02:49:55,566 --> 02:49:56,766 the remaining banks’ covered by government Guaranty schemes 3986 02:49:56,766 --> 02:50:03,298 government Guaranty schemes under the Weekend well per se 3987 02:50:10,898 --> 02:50:14,333 So, der Followers, äh, 3988 02:50:14,333 --> 02:50:17,965 So, der Followers, äh, Illustrations, von 3989 02:50:29,165 --> 02:50:36,898 integriert. Der Grim war, sind 3990 02:50:36,898 --> 02:50:38,166 integriert. Der Grim war, sind die Kinder posten, 3991 02:50:38,166 --> 02:50:40,232 die Kinder posten, kontrollieren diese 3992 02:50:40,232 --> 02:50:41,165 kontrollieren diese Reisingfrauen, der ist 3993 02:50:41,165 --> 02:50:43,599 Reisingfrauen, der ist gebraucht Provides on this 3994 02:50:43,599 --> 02:50:46,199 gebraucht Provides on this defaulted loans the default 3995 02:50:46,199 --> 02:50:47,466 defaulted loans the default coverage provided on this 3996 02:50:47,466 --> 02:50:49,166 coverage provided on this defaulted loans and the 3997 02:50:49,166 --> 02:50:52,465 defaulted loans and the actually indus the message is 3998 02:50:52,465 --> 02:50:53,965 actually indus the message is that guarantee program are 3999 02:50:53,965 --> 02:50:55,432 that guarantee program are expected to to provide 4000 02:50:55,432 --> 02:50:57,832 expected to to provide significant support to banks 4001 02:50:57,832 --> 02:50:58,498 significant support to banks solvency ratio in the euro 4002 02:50:58,498 --> 02:51:01,599 solvency ratio in the euro area. however, according to our 4003 02:51:01,599 --> 02:51:02,366 area. however, according to our estimates, they do not fully 4004 02:51:02,366 --> 02:51:04,999 estimates, they do not fully offset the losses from the 4005 02:51:04,999 --> 02:51:07,766 offset the losses from the deteriorated credit risk out 4006 02:51:07,766 --> 02:51:11,165 deteriorated credit risk out next the right place. 4007 02:51:11,599 --> 02:51:13,298 thanks, so it is also very 4008 02:51:13,298 --> 02:51:14,766 thanks, so it is also very important to check whether and 4009 02:51:14,766 --> 02:51:15,965 important to check whether and to what extent public 4010 02:51:15,965 --> 02:51:17,066 to what extent public guarantees schemes are 4011 02:51:17,066 --> 02:51:18,898 guarantees schemes are supported by landing a recent 4012 02:51:18,898 --> 02:51:20,066 supported by landing a recent months in terms of both prices 4013 02:51:20,066 --> 02:51:22,632 months in terms of both prices and volumes the chart on the 4014 02:51:22,632 --> 02:51:23,698 and volumes the chart on the left hand side that shows the 4015 02:51:23,698 --> 02:51:24,498 left hand side that shows the evolution of Bank lending 4016 02:51:24,498 --> 02:51:26,466 evolution of Bank lending rights to firms in the four 4017 02:51:26,466 --> 02:51:27,832 rights to firms in the four largest countries, and we can 4018 02:51:27,832 --> 02:51:30,033 largest countries, and we can see that in spite of the 4019 02:51:30,033 --> 02:51:30,766 see that in spite of the economic contraction lending 4020 02:51:30,766 --> 02:51:32,466 economic contraction lending rates every remain very close 4021 02:51:32,466 --> 02:51:34,599 rates every remain very close to very historical lows in 4022 02:51:34,599 --> 02:51:36,232 to very historical lows in March and April, reflecting the 4023 02:51:36,232 --> 02:51:38,466 March and April, reflecting the policy team will put in place 4024 02:51:38,466 --> 02:51:39,698 policy team will put in place in response to the prizes, 4025 02:51:39,698 --> 02:51:42,033 in response to the prizes, which includes public. In 4026 02:51:42,033 --> 02:51:46,199 which includes public. In particular, drops significantly 4027 02:51:46,199 --> 02:51:47,532 particular, drops significantly and this decline was driven by 4028 02:51:47,532 --> 02:51:49,166 and this decline was driven by small loans and reflects the 4029 02:51:49,166 --> 02:51:50,366 small loans and reflects the massive demand by small and 4030 02:51:50,366 --> 02:51:51,965 massive demand by small and medium of prices for state 4031 02:51:51,965 --> 02:51:54,166 medium of prices for state government loans which banks 4032 02:51:54,166 --> 02:51:55,666 government loans which banks shall Grant at rates very close 4033 02:51:55,666 --> 02:51:58,599 shall Grant at rates very close to zero in this country. So it 4034 02:51:58,599 --> 02:51:59,698 to zero in this country. So it seems that the guarantees 4035 02:51:59,698 --> 02:52:01,233 seems that the guarantees together with all the other 4036 02:52:01,233 --> 02:52:02,632 together with all the other measures in place Offa 4037 02:52:02,632 --> 02:52:04,599 measures in place Offa represented the next up against 4038 02:52:04,599 --> 02:52:06,366 represented the next up against a real financial feedback 4039 02:52:06,366 --> 02:52:07,966 a real financial feedback groups allowing banks to meet 4040 02:52:07,966 --> 02:52:09,432 groups allowing banks to meet the high demands for loans 4041 02:52:09,432 --> 02:52:11,599 the high demands for loans recorded in recent months and 4042 02:52:11,599 --> 02:52:14,366 recorded in recent months and historically low prices moving. 4043 02:52:14,366 --> 02:52:15,665 historically low prices moving. Volumes you can see the chart 4044 02:52:15,665 --> 02:52:16,898 Volumes you can see the chart on the right-hand side that 4045 02:52:16,898 --> 02:52:19,566 on the right-hand side that monthly flows every record high 4046 02:52:19,566 --> 02:52:20,532 monthly flows every record high levels in the last three 4047 02:52:20,532 --> 02:52:22,365 levels in the last three months, reflecting the 4048 02:52:22,365 --> 02:52:23,432 months, reflecting the emergency liquidity needs of 4049 02:52:23,432 --> 02:52:24,766 emergency liquidity needs of funds due to the local 4050 02:52:24,766 --> 02:52:26,366 funds due to the local measures. whether the huge flow 4051 02:52:26,366 --> 02:52:27,965 measures. whether the huge flow in March can be explained by 4052 02:52:27,965 --> 02:52:30,067 in March can be explained by the drawdown of existing credit 4053 02:52:30,067 --> 02:52:31,633 the drawdown of existing credit lines, the sizable flows in 4054 02:52:31,633 --> 02:52:33,298 lines, the sizable flows in April and may are driven to a 4055 02:52:33,298 --> 02:52:34,498 April and may are driven to a large extent by government 4056 02:52:34,498 --> 02:52:36,599 large extent by government guarantee scheme in addition to 4057 02:52:36,599 --> 02:52:39,932 guarantee scheme in addition to the commodity monition next 4058 02:52:39,932 --> 02:52:42,232 the commodity monition next slide, please. indeed the when 4059 02:52:42,232 --> 02:52:46,033 slide, please. indeed the when you plott in the. 4060 02:53:13,633 --> 02:53:18,067 I think we lost the connection. 4061 02:53:53,332 --> 02:53:57,298 Okay, I’m just maybe just a 4062 02:53:57,298 --> 02:53:59,032 Okay, I’m just maybe just a broadly conclude the the the 4063 02:53:59,032 --> 02:54:02,333 broadly conclude the the the presentation by myself. so I 4064 02:54:02,333 --> 02:54:04,999 presentation by myself. so I guess that with the last you 4065 02:54:04,999 --> 02:54:07,832 guess that with the last you know the the second that I said 4066 02:54:07,832 --> 02:54:09,265 know the the second that I said the chart on this life was 4067 02:54:09,265 --> 02:54:13,432 the chart on this life was presenting the the VA varies to 4068 02:54:13,432 --> 02:54:15,965 presenting the the VA varies to demonstrate to this strong 4069 02:54:15,965 --> 02:54:17,565 demonstrate to this strong correlation between the cross 4070 02:54:17,565 --> 02:54:19,298 correlation between the cross flows of new laws that have 4071 02:54:19,298 --> 02:54:21,565 flows of new laws that have been extended in April in May 4072 02:54:21,565 --> 02:54:23,866 been extended in April in May and the amount of guarantee 4073 02:54:23,866 --> 02:54:28,898 and the amount of guarantee these loans guaranteed with. 4074 02:54:29,366 --> 02:54:33,698 Okay. So let’s. start with my 4075 02:54:33,698 --> 02:54:39,866 Okay. So let’s. start with my connection. very good. Okay. 4076 02:54:39,866 --> 02:54:42,898 connection. very good. Okay. Thanks a lot. so so you can 4077 02:54:42,898 --> 02:54:46,532 Thanks a lot. so so you can see. in this chart that this 4078 02:54:46,532 --> 02:54:48,632 see. in this chart that this relationship within the take up 4079 02:54:48,632 --> 02:54:51,832 relationship within the take up of loans and guarantee and the 4080 02:54:51,832 --> 02:54:54,266 of loans and guarantee and the nets very strong and another 4081 02:54:54,266 --> 02:54:55,832 nets very strong and another indication that the gurus are 4082 02:54:55,832 --> 02:54:57,565 indication that the gurus are supporting the cap in lending 4083 02:54:57,565 --> 02:54:59,032 supporting the cap in lending to firms that comes from a 4084 02:54:59,032 --> 02:55:00,898 to firms that comes from a break down which is not shown 4085 02:55:00,898 --> 02:55:02,766 break down which is not shown here which indicates that the 4086 02:55:02,766 --> 02:55:04,332 here which indicates that the flow of lungs with medium term 4087 02:55:04,332 --> 02:55:05,832 flow of lungs with medium term material have increased and not 4088 02:55:05,832 --> 02:55:06,898 material have increased and not in the last two months and 4089 02:55:06,898 --> 02:55:09,532 in the last two months and these are the. You have 4090 02:55:09,532 --> 02:55:12,199 these are the. You have difficult back to my. so if you 4091 02:55:12,199 --> 02:55:14,166 difficult back to my. so if you go to the next slide, which is 4092 02:55:14,166 --> 02:55:18,566 go to the next slide, which is the last one Thanks so to some 4093 02:55:18,566 --> 02:55:20,300 the last one Thanks so to some public guarantees by taking 4094 02:55:20,300 --> 02:55:21,832 public guarantees by taking part of the credit risk out of 4095 02:55:21,832 --> 02:55:24,366 part of the credit risk out of banks and with support flows 4096 02:55:24,366 --> 02:55:26,100 banks and with support flows and reduce the probability of 4097 02:55:26,100 --> 02:55:28,632 and reduce the probability of having a credit card and said 4098 02:55:28,632 --> 02:55:29,965 having a credit card and said that we have seen some buttons 4099 02:55:29,965 --> 02:55:32,366 that we have seen some buttons in the take up of Guan loans, 4100 02:55:32,366 --> 02:55:33,766 in the take up of Guan loans, especially in some countries 4101 02:55:33,766 --> 02:55:35,832 especially in some countries and there are many factors that 4102 02:55:35,832 --> 02:55:37,267 and there are many factors that can explain this pattern The 4103 02:55:37,267 --> 02:55:39,965 can explain this pattern The first is that the For the God 4104 02:55:39,965 --> 02:55:42,132 first is that the For the God is maybe below reflecting the 4105 02:55:42,132 --> 02:55:43,133 is maybe below reflecting the conditions the availability of 4106 02:55:43,133 --> 02:55:45,232 conditions the availability of the sources of financing or the 4107 02:55:45,232 --> 02:55:46,332 the sources of financing or the possibility to benefit from 4108 02:55:46,332 --> 02:55:49,233 possibility to benefit from other fiscal measures like 4109 02:55:49,233 --> 02:55:50,866 other fiscal measures like moratorium loan repayments are 4110 02:55:50,866 --> 02:55:52,498 moratorium loan repayments are the factors may stem from the 4111 02:55:52,498 --> 02:55:55,032 the factors may stem from the supply side, reflecting, for 4112 02:55:55,032 --> 02:55:56,333 supply side, reflecting, for example, the risk version of 4113 02:55:56,333 --> 02:55:58,266 example, the risk version of banks that still need to get 4114 02:55:58,266 --> 02:56:00,132 banks that still need to get part of the risk well in our 4115 02:56:00,132 --> 02:56:01,966 part of the risk well in our representation, we have a light 4116 02:56:01,966 --> 02:56:03,965 representation, we have a light at seven positive aspects of 4117 02:56:03,965 --> 02:56:05,565 at seven positive aspects of the schemes. It is important to 4118 02:56:05,565 --> 02:56:07,298 the schemes. It is important to keep in mind possible side 4119 02:56:07,298 --> 02:56:11,032 keep in mind possible side effects related to. 4120 02:56:38,300 --> 02:56:40,099 For banks to foreclose 4121 02:56:40,099 --> 02:56:42,199 For banks to foreclose guaranteed loans close to the 4122 02:56:42,199 --> 02:56:43,566 guaranteed loans close to the expiration date of the 4123 02:56:43,566 --> 02:56:45,032 expiration date of the government scheme and finally 4124 02:56:45,032 --> 02:56:46,765 government scheme and finally the different sizes conditions 4125 02:56:46,765 --> 02:56:49,166 the different sizes conditions and take of the programs. may 4126 02:56:49,166 --> 02:56:50,166 and take of the programs. may increase the recommendation 4127 02:56:50,166 --> 02:56:51,932 increase the recommendation across your accounts. 4128 02:56:51,932 --> 02:56:53,298 across your accounts. Nevertheless, the probability 4129 02:56:53,298 --> 02:56:54,366 Nevertheless, the probability of these districts to 4130 02:56:54,366 --> 02:56:56,066 of these districts to materialize is in our view 4131 02:56:56,066 --> 02:56:58,065 materialize is in our view limited at this stage as the 4132 02:56:58,065 --> 02:56:59,432 limited at this stage as the guarantees are not expected to 4133 02:56:59,432 --> 02:57:01,298 guarantees are not expected to be fully used and doesn’t 4134 02:57:01,298 --> 02:57:02,300 be fully used and doesn’t because guarantees have been 4135 02:57:02,300 --> 02:57:03,866 because guarantees have been accompanied by a vast range of 4136 02:57:03,866 --> 02:57:05,965 accompanied by a vast range of other police measures and I 4137 02:57:05,965 --> 02:57:07,799 other police measures and I would stop here. Thanks a lot 4138 02:57:07,799 --> 02:57:11,666 would stop here. Thanks a lot for your attention. Thank you 4139 02:57:11,666 --> 02:57:15,400 for your attention. Thank you very much for Thank you. 4140 02:57:26,099 --> 02:57:28,701 And what what my thoughts were 4141 02:57:28,701 --> 02:57:30,467 And what what my thoughts were going through the presentation 4142 02:57:30,467 --> 02:57:31,667 going through the presentation is that we do a lot of impact 4143 02:57:31,667 --> 02:57:32,998 is that we do a lot of impact assessment and that’s the 4144 02:57:32,998 --> 02:57:35,333 assessment and that’s the nature of the exercise on the 4145 02:57:35,333 --> 02:57:37,666 nature of the exercise on the final beneficiary or on the 4146 02:57:37,666 --> 02:57:39,333 final beneficiary or on the economy. We never really 4147 02:57:39,333 --> 02:57:42,100 economy. We never really compare the impact on the 4148 02:57:42,100 --> 02:57:44,933 compare the impact on the provider, meaning we’re using 4149 02:57:44,933 --> 02:57:47,267 provider, meaning we’re using public money of some dot does 4150 02:57:47,267 --> 02:57:48,800 public money of some dot does it make a difference in terms 4151 02:57:48,800 --> 02:57:51,233 it make a difference in terms of actual loss is expected 4152 02:57:51,233 --> 02:57:53,698 of actual loss is expected lastes whether we use a 4153 02:57:53,698 --> 02:57:55,566 lastes whether we use a contingent liability we whether 4154 02:57:55,566 --> 02:57:58,700 contingent liability we whether we use heavy, you know. 4155 02:57:58,700 --> 02:58:00,333 we use heavy, you know. Injections what’s kind of 4156 02:58:00,333 --> 02:58:03,100 Injections what’s kind of impact differentiate when we 4157 02:58:03,100 --> 02:58:05,233 impact differentiate when we use the government balance 4158 02:58:05,233 --> 02:58:06,466 use the government balance sheet of the Central Bank 4159 02:58:06,466 --> 02:58:08,199 sheet of the Central Bank balance sheets of the balance 4160 02:58:08,199 --> 02:58:11,598 balance sheets of the balance sheets of of of you know or 4161 02:58:11,598 --> 02:58:13,566 sheets of of of you know or development? I think this is 4162 02:58:13,566 --> 02:58:14,733 development? I think this is probably the next step that we 4163 02:58:14,733 --> 02:58:16,632 probably the next step that we can do having all those studies 4164 02:58:16,632 --> 02:58:19,333 can do having all those studies at hand based on my data to 4165 02:58:19,333 --> 02:58:21,866 at hand based on my data to sort of have a welfare and such 4166 02:58:21,866 --> 02:58:23,433 sort of have a welfare and such a flipped around the the 4167 02:58:23,433 --> 02:58:25,333 a flipped around the the welfare and that’s that’s 4168 02:58:25,333 --> 02:58:26,632 welfare and that’s that’s that’s for. That’s for the next 4169 02:58:26,632 --> 02:58:28,800 that’s for. That’s for the next workshop. we still have. 15 4170 02:58:28,800 --> 02:58:30,167 workshop. we still have. 15 minutes and that’s good because 4171 02:58:30,167 --> 02:58:32,367 minutes and that’s good because I wanted it to be able to give 4172 02:58:32,367 --> 02:58:34,367 I wanted it to be able to give the floor that was a hint from 4173 02:58:34,367 --> 02:58:39,167 the floor that was a hint from Nina Fenton I I say hi to to 4174 02:58:39,167 --> 02:58:40,700 Nina Fenton I I say hi to to pets from AFD and he’s 4175 02:58:40,700 --> 02:58:44,167 pets from AFD and he’s conducted some work using 4176 02:58:44,167 --> 02:58:46,234 conducted some work using satellite images from what I 4177 02:58:46,234 --> 02:58:48,233 satellite images from what I understand so if you don’t if 4178 02:58:48,233 --> 02:58:52,200 understand so if you don’t if if you’re still around it’s 4179 02:58:52,200 --> 02:58:55,400 if you’re still around it’s it’s and I give you the floor. 4180 02:58:55,400 --> 02:58:58,666 it’s and I give you the floor. Okay. Can you hear me? yes, 4181 02:58:58,666 --> 02:59:01,001 Okay. Can you hear me? yes, very well. Okay I cannot turn 4182 02:59:01,001 --> 02:59:04,199 very well. Okay I cannot turn the video of some reason, but 4183 02:59:04,199 --> 02:59:05,733 the video of some reason, but you can hear me. That’s fine. 4184 02:59:05,733 --> 02:59:08,800 you can hear me. That’s fine. It’s fine now. okay you can see 4185 02:59:08,800 --> 02:59:15,299 It’s fine now. okay you can see on. okay. Thank you. okay So 4186 02:59:15,299 --> 02:59:19,067 on. okay. Thank you. okay So yeah. I’m not really speak 4187 02:59:19,067 --> 02:59:21,132 yeah. I’m not really speak about projects as well and 4188 02:59:21,132 --> 02:59:23,032 about projects as well and they’re taking to assess the 4189 02:59:23,032 --> 02:59:27,601 they’re taking to assess the impact using in the satellite. 4190 02:59:57,800 --> 03:00:00,232 Seven countries in West Africa 4191 03:00:00,232 --> 03:00:02,898 Seven countries in West Africa and we’ll provide the details 4192 03:00:02,898 --> 03:00:04,232 and we’ll provide the details on the current economic 4193 03:00:04,232 --> 03:00:06,765 on the current economic footprint improvements in human 4194 03:00:06,765 --> 03:00:08,966 footprint improvements in human rights and increases in traffic 4195 03:00:08,966 --> 03:00:12,232 rights and increases in traffic and we are trying a new 4196 03:00:12,232 --> 03:00:13,633 and we are trying a new innovative approach here, which 4197 03:00:13,633 --> 03:00:17,232 innovative approach here, which consists of combining data or 4198 03:00:17,232 --> 03:00:20,099 consists of combining data or request from appraisal to bevis 4199 03:00:20,099 --> 03:00:23,698 request from appraisal to bevis computers together with Greta 4200 03:00:23,698 --> 03:00:28,733 computers together with Greta House all day. and also. So we 4201 03:00:28,733 --> 03:00:31,366 House all day. and also. So we are working with a with a 4202 03:00:31,366 --> 03:00:34,734 are working with a with a special amenities and also we 4203 03:00:34,734 --> 03:00:38,567 special amenities and also we are using using mashing need to 4204 03:00:38,567 --> 03:00:41,200 are using using mashing need to put together so that you know 4205 03:00:41,200 --> 03:00:43,300 put together so that you know how to provide very local hyper 4206 03:00:43,300 --> 03:00:44,200 how to provide very local hyper local population based 4207 03:00:44,200 --> 03:00:46,533 local population based information on the communities 4208 03:00:46,533 --> 03:00:50,700 information on the communities affected by road of the week. 4209 03:00:50,700 --> 03:00:52,866 affected by road of the week. For this, we make use of all 4210 03:00:52,866 --> 03:00:54,900 For this, we make use of all satellites’ gabo, such as for 4211 03:00:54,900 --> 03:00:59,700 satellites’ gabo, such as for example, light during night. 4212 03:01:29,733 --> 03:01:32,199 The world is made of it’s made 4213 03:01:32,199 --> 03:01:34,499 The world is made of it’s made available so indicators 4214 03:01:34,499 --> 03:01:37,333 available so indicators include, for example, they tell 4215 03:01:37,333 --> 03:01:37,933 include, for example, they tell demographic’s spending power 4216 03:01:37,933 --> 03:01:40,167 demographic’s spending power Internet connectivity financial 4217 03:01:40,167 --> 03:01:41,934 Internet connectivity financial inclusion social characteristic 4218 03:01:41,934 --> 03:01:45,333 inclusion social characteristic access to drinking water. so so 4219 03:01:45,333 --> 03:01:49,167 access to drinking water. so so that is social so really what 4220 03:01:49,167 --> 03:01:50,766 that is social so really what you want to achieve and we have 4221 03:01:50,766 --> 03:01:52,633 you want to achieve and we have to do this study and we have we 4222 03:01:52,633 --> 03:01:54,000 to do this study and we have we wouldn’t have been for over 12 4223 03:01:54,000 --> 03:01:56,100 wouldn’t have been for over 12 of the resources in the Shima 4224 03:01:56,100 --> 03:01:58,234 of the resources in the Shima and also what we want to do is 4225 03:01:58,234 --> 03:02:04,767 and also what we want to do is to compare this. Some So 4226 03:02:04,767 --> 03:02:09,466 to compare this. Some So basically we will deliver it is 4227 03:02:09,466 --> 03:02:12,533 basically we will deliver it is over time in both communities 4228 03:02:12,533 --> 03:02:16,732 over time in both communities near THD interventions and. 4229 03:02:16,732 --> 03:02:18,300 near THD interventions and. what we put contact our 4230 03:02:18,300 --> 03:02:20,500 what we put contact our communities. So what is since 4231 03:02:20,500 --> 03:02:22,100 communities. So what is since we’re really impact since we’re 4232 03:02:22,100 --> 03:02:24,233 we’re really impact since we’re also part of the road project 4233 03:02:24,233 --> 03:02:26,166 also part of the road project by comparing to changes 4234 03:02:26,166 --> 03:02:27,133 by comparing to changes indicator, which is the two 4235 03:02:27,133 --> 03:02:33,100 indicator, which is the two groups and we also use this. 4236 03:02:33,100 --> 03:02:39,200 groups and we also use this. Get out of the HD. conditions 4237 03:02:39,200 --> 03:02:41,433 Get out of the HD. conditions so that’s basically I’m just a 4238 03:02:41,433 --> 03:02:43,966 so that’s basically I’m just a few suit on how we can walk and 4239 03:02:43,966 --> 03:02:47,766 few suit on how we can walk and until the 19 situation of the 4240 03:02:47,766 --> 03:02:49,234 until the 19 situation of the forces of project would be to 4241 03:02:49,234 --> 03:02:50,600 forces of project would be to its very important to make 4242 03:02:50,600 --> 03:02:53,534 its very important to make better use of existing data. So 4243 03:02:53,534 --> 03:02:56,066 better use of existing data. So now what the time and the 4244 03:02:56,066 --> 03:02:57,666 now what the time and the existing so we’re looking at 4245 03:02:57,666 --> 03:03:00,034 existing so we’re looking at It’s it’s important for to work 4246 03:03:00,034 --> 03:03:03,433 It’s it’s important for to work creatively with other. 4247 03:04:09,933 --> 03:04:11,733 Flood you and give you the 4248 03:04:11,733 --> 03:04:14,700 Flood you and give you the floor. if if someone has a 4249 03:04:14,700 --> 03:04:16,166 floor. if if someone has a remark or question for one of 4250 03:04:16,166 --> 03:04:20,133 remark or question for one of the of the presenters today. so 4251 03:04:20,133 --> 03:04:22,234 the of the presenters today. so it’s these people a little bit 4252 03:04:22,234 --> 03:04:24,466 it’s these people a little bit of time, but I will rely on you 4253 03:04:24,466 --> 03:04:25,800 of time, but I will rely on you because I’m not on a small 4254 03:04:25,800 --> 03:04:29,266 because I’m not on a small device I cannot see everyone 4255 03:04:29,266 --> 03:04:30,933 device I cannot see everyone anymore. So if you see someone 4256 03:04:30,933 --> 03:04:34,333 anymore. So if you see someone flagging and and raising hands 4257 03:04:34,333 --> 03:04:37,833 flagging and and raising hands to them on the screen. 4258 03:04:54,933 --> 03:04:59,333 You know I think yeah not 4259 03:04:59,333 --> 03:05:00,633 You know I think yeah not nothing is coming there. 4260 03:05:00,633 --> 03:05:03,333 nothing is coming there. There’s one question I may have 4261 03:05:03,333 --> 03:05:05,633 There’s one question I may have and that’s also by means of 4262 03:05:05,633 --> 03:05:07,333 and that’s also by means of giving everyone to do the the 4263 03:05:07,333 --> 03:05:09,832 giving everyone to do the the ability to give a conclusion 4264 03:05:09,832 --> 03:05:12,132 ability to give a conclusion the meaning of nationality I 4265 03:05:12,132 --> 03:05:14,865 the meaning of nationality I think it’s it’s pretty well 4266 03:05:14,865 --> 03:05:17,033 think it’s it’s pretty well defined for my studies and 4267 03:05:17,033 --> 03:05:18,933 defined for my studies and studies of the value to to to 4268 03:05:18,933 --> 03:05:20,199 studies of the value to to to see to characterize the 4269 03:05:20,199 --> 03:05:22,898 see to characterize the original concept as it is 4270 03:05:22,898 --> 03:05:25,232 original concept as it is stated in the stages of of of 4271 03:05:25,232 --> 03:05:28,333 stated in the stages of of of the. Of the EIS and on the 4272 03:05:28,333 --> 03:05:30,934 the. Of the EIS and on the other institutions but at the 4273 03:05:30,934 --> 03:05:33,132 other institutions but at the main level, I think this is a 4274 03:05:33,132 --> 03:05:35,933 main level, I think this is a lot more multifaceted and 4275 03:05:35,933 --> 03:05:38,232 lot more multifaceted and there’s a lot. I mean more 4276 03:05:38,232 --> 03:05:38,933 there’s a lot. I mean more different ways to look at it. 4277 03:05:38,933 --> 03:05:41,233 different ways to look at it. So maybe that’s a question that 4278 03:05:41,233 --> 03:05:42,933 So maybe that’s a question that that people may want to address 4279 03:05:42,933 --> 03:05:45,399 that people may want to address and in any case if you want to 4280 03:05:45,399 --> 03:05:48,166 and in any case if you want to have a family and work for food 4281 03:05:48,166 --> 03:05:51,665 have a family and work for food maybe just one minute for 4282 03:05:51,665 --> 03:05:53,066 maybe just one minute for mounting an hour if you want to 4283 03:05:53,066 --> 03:05:54,766 mounting an hour if you want to say something to close the 4284 03:05:54,766 --> 03:05:58,700 say something to close the session and then Joan you see 4285 03:05:58,700 --> 03:06:00,733 session and then Joan you see around you will you’ll get a 4286 03:06:00,733 --> 03:06:05,733 around you will you’ll get a bit of time So match. 4287 03:06:06,800 --> 03:06:11,700 Oh, okay. Yeah then go ahead. 4288 03:06:11,700 --> 03:06:14,300 Oh, okay. Yeah then go ahead. Yes. So thank you. Natasha. I 4289 03:06:14,300 --> 03:06:16,266 Yes. So thank you. Natasha. I want to just very quickly go 4290 03:06:16,266 --> 03:06:18,167 want to just very quickly go back to your previous comment 4291 03:06:18,167 --> 03:06:21,167 back to your previous comment and try for the share on on the 4292 03:06:21,167 --> 03:06:23,600 and try for the share on on the fact that one part of the 4293 03:06:23,600 --> 03:06:24,367 fact that one part of the analysis seems to be missing, 4294 03:06:24,367 --> 03:06:26,166 analysis seems to be missing, which is the impact on the 4295 03:06:26,166 --> 03:06:28,100 which is the impact on the providers Currently, I think 4296 03:06:28,100 --> 03:06:29,466 providers Currently, I think it’s of course an important 4297 03:06:29,466 --> 03:06:32,367 it’s of course an important point that on this I just want 4298 03:06:32,367 --> 03:06:34,833 point that on this I just want to flag a couple of things so 4299 03:06:34,833 --> 03:06:36,500 to flag a couple of things so first of all we show our our 4300 03:06:36,500 --> 03:06:41,967 first of all we show our our analysis is that part of the. 4301 03:07:12,166 --> 03:07:14,199 an assumption for the day, 4302 03:07:14,199 --> 03:07:18,433 an assumption for the day, which is a very. compared to 4303 03:07:18,433 --> 03:07:20,366 which is a very. compared to the overall. of course, there 4304 03:07:20,366 --> 03:07:22,366 the overall. of course, there is a lot of uncertainty about 4305 03:07:22,366 --> 03:07:26,166 is a lot of uncertainty about the the final of this program 4306 03:07:26,166 --> 03:07:30,500 the the final of this program maybe larger than that Mateo is 4307 03:07:30,500 --> 03:07:31,567 maybe larger than that Mateo is emphasize very well. They’re 4308 03:07:31,567 --> 03:07:33,533 emphasize very well. They’re all of the cut for the for the 4309 03:07:33,533 --> 03:07:37,333 all of the cut for the for the education of the impact. but on 4310 03:07:37,333 --> 03:07:38,767 education of the impact. but on this, I just wanted to are the 4311 03:07:38,767 --> 03:07:40,200 this, I just wanted to are the ones who were last comment, 4312 03:07:40,200 --> 03:07:43,000 ones who were last comment, which is that even in. Case of 4313 03:07:43,000 --> 03:07:46,466 which is that even in. Case of a limited take it has been an 4314 03:07:46,466 --> 03:07:50,700 a limited take it has been an emphasize that the announcement 4315 03:07:50,700 --> 03:07:54,600 emphasize that the announcement of large programs could put the 4316 03:07:54,600 --> 03:07:59,100 of large programs could put the have a financial stability 4317 03:08:00,366 --> 03:08:03,633 benign effect because it may so 4318 03:08:03,633 --> 03:08:06,066 benign effect because it may so to speak work as a sort of a 4319 03:08:06,066 --> 03:08:07,566 to speak work as a sort of a guarantor a last resort so it 4320 03:08:07,566 --> 03:08:10,200 guarantor a last resort so it can provide and and in the 4321 03:08:10,200 --> 03:08:13,633 can provide and and in the context of the month. in the 4322 03:08:13,633 --> 03:08:16,900 context of the month. in the instability. 4323 03:08:33,633 --> 03:08:35,700 You know actually clicked on. 4324 03:08:35,700 --> 03:08:37,267 You know actually clicked on. have a few words. Yes, I will 4325 03:08:37,267 --> 03:08:40,867 have a few words. Yes, I will go ahead. yes so I think one 4326 03:08:40,867 --> 03:08:43,600 go ahead. yes so I think one important aspect is I mean 4327 03:08:43,600 --> 03:08:45,167 important aspect is I mean we’re looking at guarantees a 4328 03:08:45,167 --> 03:08:48,633 we’re looking at guarantees a lot in in in this session and 4329 03:08:48,633 --> 03:08:50,467 lot in in in this session and most of the guarantees schemes 4330 03:08:50,467 --> 03:08:51,800 most of the guarantees schemes originally have been designed 4331 03:08:51,800 --> 03:08:55,634 originally have been designed to deal with the idiots so 4332 03:08:55,634 --> 03:08:58,200 to deal with the idiots so corporate defaults under normal 4333 03:08:58,200 --> 03:08:59,900 corporate defaults under normal circumstances and many of the 4334 03:08:59,900 --> 03:09:01,166 circumstances and many of the analysis that we have been 4335 03:09:01,166 --> 03:09:05,733 analysis that we have been doing is also. When the this 4336 03:09:05,733 --> 03:09:07,265 doing is also. When the this guarantee schemes have been 4337 03:09:07,265 --> 03:09:09,800 guarantee schemes have been dealing with idiots Synchrony 4338 03:09:09,800 --> 03:09:12,100 dealing with idiots Synchrony is decreased and now we are in 4339 03:09:12,100 --> 03:09:13,599 is decreased and now we are in a very different situation 4340 03:09:13,599 --> 03:09:16,232 a very different situation where the risk is aggregate. so 4341 03:09:16,232 --> 03:09:18,867 where the risk is aggregate. so it’s hitting across the board 4342 03:09:18,867 --> 03:09:20,532 it’s hitting across the board instead of like individual 4343 03:09:20,532 --> 03:09:22,733 instead of like individual forearms around the basics and 4344 03:09:22,733 --> 03:09:24,600 forearms around the basics and I think that’s very important 4345 03:09:24,600 --> 03:09:28,100 I think that’s very important aspect of for research to see 4346 03:09:28,100 --> 03:09:29,967 aspect of for research to see what are the same results that 4347 03:09:29,967 --> 03:09:31,133 what are the same results that you receive the same process as 4348 03:09:31,133 --> 03:09:32,500 you receive the same process as the result to employment and 4349 03:09:32,500 --> 03:09:35,167 the result to employment and less and so the to receive. 4350 03:09:35,167 --> 03:09:39,666 less and so the to receive. Times of normal times when the 4351 03:09:39,666 --> 03:09:43,600 Times of normal times when the risk is the Sri is the same as 4352 03:09:43,600 --> 03:09:46,866 risk is the Sri is the same as during times like no one ’s and 4353 03:09:46,866 --> 03:09:47,666 during times like no one ’s and all cooperates are facing the 4354 03:09:47,666 --> 03:09:50,667 all cooperates are facing the risk at the same time and 4355 03:09:50,667 --> 03:09:53,800 risk at the same time and whether the results that point 4356 03:09:53,800 --> 03:09:54,700 whether the results that point towards credit guarantees being 4357 03:09:54,700 --> 03:09:59,133 towards credit guarantees being a useful tool to support Atms 4358 03:09:59,133 --> 03:10:00,498 a useful tool to support Atms and employment, whether these 4359 03:10:00,498 --> 03:10:03,232 and employment, whether these results can extend to an 4360 03:10:03,232 --> 03:10:03,766 results can extend to an across-the-board shortly here 4361 03:10:03,766 --> 03:10:05,467 across-the-board shortly here we are facing now. I think it’s 4362 03:10:05,467 --> 03:10:11,266 we are facing now. I think it’s also For the better. the 4363 03:10:11,266 --> 03:10:13,699 also For the better. the results that we we we obtain 4364 03:10:13,699 --> 03:10:15,333 results that we we we obtain for for you. Think of this can 4365 03:10:15,333 --> 03:10:18,100 for for you. Think of this can be extended to risk and also 4366 03:10:18,100 --> 03:10:19,733 be extended to risk and also it’s an empirical question as 4367 03:10:19,733 --> 03:10:20,566 it’s an empirical question as well. and they think that 4368 03:10:20,566 --> 03:10:21,767 well. and they think that that’s something that we will 4369 03:10:21,767 --> 03:10:23,567 that’s something that we will that will keep us busy in the 4370 03:10:23,567 --> 03:10:26,167 that will keep us busy in the in in in in in the coming year. 4371 03:10:26,167 --> 03:10:28,000 in in in in in the coming year. Also, I mean wetten some 4372 03:10:28,000 --> 03:10:30,100 Also, I mean wetten some results from the last prices, 4373 03:10:30,100 --> 03:10:32,767 results from the last prices, but given that during the last 4374 03:10:32,767 --> 03:10:34,234 but given that during the last crisis credit guarantees, we’re 4375 03:10:34,234 --> 03:10:37,200 crisis credit guarantees, we’re not as wide spread as an. Now, 4376 03:10:37,200 --> 03:10:38,933 not as wide spread as an. Now, I think it will be a very 4377 03:10:38,933 --> 03:10:41,500 I think it will be a very interesting area of research 4378 03:10:41,500 --> 03:10:42,834 interesting area of research and those are something very 4379 03:10:42,834 --> 03:10:45,500 and those are something very important. for conclusions. 4380 03:10:45,500 --> 03:10:47,933 important. for conclusions. Thank you. That’s a very good 4381 03:10:47,933 --> 03:10:49,466 Thank you. That’s a very good point. I mean that’s so given 4382 03:10:49,466 --> 03:10:50,866 point. I mean that’s so given the the chances in this 4383 03:10:50,866 --> 03:10:52,266 the the chances in this particular landscape of the 4384 03:10:52,266 --> 03:10:53,600 particular landscape of the shops That’s the instrument is 4385 03:10:53,600 --> 03:10:56,333 shops That’s the instrument is addressing that also has 4386 03:10:56,333 --> 03:10:58,066 addressing that also has indications for the for the for 4387 03:10:58,066 --> 03:10:59,866 indications for the for the for the meaning and the fields of 4388 03:10:59,866 --> 03:11:01,966 the meaning and the fields of the policy you know instruments 4389 03:11:01,966 --> 03:11:03,899 the policy you know instruments as such so that’s that’s a very 4390 03:11:03,899 --> 03:11:10,300 as such so that’s that’s a very good point. Thanks Adam. Euh 4391 03:11:32,266 --> 03:11:36,200 de de de de tempête 4392 03:11:38,133 --> 03:11:40,000 The perspective of limited 4393 03:11:40,000 --> 03:11:41,633 The perspective of limited resources how to deploy them, 4394 03:11:41,633 --> 03:11:43,266 resources how to deploy them, it makes sense to start with 4395 03:11:43,266 --> 03:11:45,700 it makes sense to start with the SMEs because this is really 4396 03:11:45,700 --> 03:11:49,600 the SMEs because this is really the place where where our 4397 03:11:49,600 --> 03:11:51,767 the place where where our investments that they make real 4398 03:11:51,767 --> 03:11:54,034 investments that they make real changes whether it is 4399 03:11:54,034 --> 03:11:55,600 changes whether it is employment or are tangible 4400 03:11:55,600 --> 03:11:57,533 employment or are tangible investments, but this is 4401 03:11:57,533 --> 03:11:59,933 investments, but this is innovation. but having said 4402 03:11:59,933 --> 03:12:02,199 innovation. but having said this, I think we should never 4403 03:12:02,199 --> 03:12:03,800 this, I think we should never stop asking ourselves a 4404 03:12:03,800 --> 03:12:05,666 stop asking ourselves a question if we can do something 4405 03:12:05,666 --> 03:12:08,533 question if we can do something better and I think. In 4406 03:12:08,533 --> 03:12:10,232 better and I think. In disrespect financial 4407 03:12:10,232 --> 03:12:11,500 disrespect financial intermediaries as they are, 4408 03:12:11,500 --> 03:12:13,099 intermediaries as they are, they are a part of the wider 4409 03:12:13,099 --> 03:12:15,233 they are a part of the wider ecosystem, and of course it’s 4410 03:12:15,233 --> 03:12:16,833 ecosystem, and of course it’s possible that we can deliver 4411 03:12:16,833 --> 03:12:18,400 possible that we can deliver even bigger value added on the 4412 03:12:18,400 --> 03:12:20,633 even bigger value added on the ground as a public institution, 4413 03:12:20,633 --> 03:12:23,034 ground as a public institution, if we have correctly designs 4414 03:12:23,034 --> 03:12:25,267 if we have correctly designs design contracts with financial 4415 03:12:25,267 --> 03:12:27,266 design contracts with financial intermediaries and if we know 4416 03:12:27,266 --> 03:12:28,698 intermediaries and if we know exactly how how this 4417 03:12:28,698 --> 03:12:29,466 exactly how how this transmission channel works 4418 03:12:29,466 --> 03:12:31,033 transmission channel works through the financial 4419 03:12:31,033 --> 03:12:33,299 through the financial intermediaries so I think he 4420 03:12:33,299 --> 03:12:35,066 intermediaries so I think he has, it’s a it’s a very 4421 03:12:35,066 --> 03:12:37,267 has, it’s a it’s a very interesting empirical question 4422 03:12:37,267 --> 03:12:39,934 interesting empirical question as a sort of a follow up or a 4423 03:12:39,934 --> 03:12:43,033 as a sort of a follow up or a spin-off from from what we. At 4424 03:12:43,033 --> 03:12:45,867 spin-off from from what we. At the moment, no and I would 4425 03:12:45,867 --> 03:12:48,567 the moment, no and I would compliment that by saying 4426 03:12:48,567 --> 03:12:50,167 compliment that by saying looking at the financial 4427 03:12:50,167 --> 03:12:51,434 looking at the financial intermediary, but also looking 4428 03:12:51,434 --> 03:12:53,966 intermediary, but also looking at the instruments you use via 4429 03:12:53,966 --> 03:12:55,767 at the instruments you use via the financial intermediary 4430 03:12:55,767 --> 03:12:58,200 the financial intermediary alone I guarantee venture 4431 03:12:58,200 --> 03:13:00,700 alone I guarantee venture capital equity. I think the mix 4432 03:13:00,700 --> 03:13:02,199 capital equity. I think the mix it’s really a great mix of the 4433 03:13:02,199 --> 03:13:05,633 it’s really a great mix of the two that makes as many as many 4434 03:13:05,633 --> 03:13:09,733 two that makes as many as many aspects to study absolutely. 4435 03:13:09,733 --> 03:13:13,400 aspects to study absolutely. thanks watching and Next one to 4436 03:13:13,400 --> 03:13:14,733 thanks watching and Next one to add something we’ve reached the 4437 03:13:14,733 --> 03:13:16,466 add something we’ve reached the limits of our time, so I don’t 4438 03:13:16,466 --> 03:13:19,266 limits of our time, so I don’t want to get off you know to 4439 03:13:19,266 --> 03:13:21,400 want to get off you know to join as humans you spoke 4440 03:13:21,400 --> 03:13:26,099 join as humans you spoke already but if not then handled 4441 03:13:26,099 --> 03:13:28,365 already but if not then handled here, yes and maybe just one 4442 03:13:28,365 --> 03:13:30,833 here, yes and maybe just one word. hello everybody with 4443 03:13:30,833 --> 03:13:32,099 word. hello everybody with regards to the question, 4444 03:13:32,099 --> 03:13:33,699 regards to the question, Intermediate and final 4445 03:13:33,699 --> 03:13:37,367 Intermediate and final beneficiaries and the question 4446 03:13:37,367 --> 03:13:38,866 beneficiaries and the question additional versus versus 4447 03:13:38,866 --> 03:13:40,298 additional versus versus impacts that we have to 4448 03:13:40,298 --> 03:13:42,067 impacts that we have to distinguish and with regard to 4449 03:13:42,067 --> 03:13:44,365 distinguish and with regard to our microsd sent the economic 4450 03:13:44,365 --> 03:13:45,867 our microsd sent the economic metric analysis where we are 4451 03:13:45,867 --> 03:13:50,100 metric analysis where we are looking at. In the precise 4452 03:13:50,100 --> 03:13:51,266 looking at. In the precise sense of of impact, so what 4453 03:13:51,266 --> 03:13:53,665 sense of of impact, so what would have happened in the 4454 03:13:53,665 --> 03:13:55,233 would have happened in the absence of the intervention? 4455 03:13:55,233 --> 03:13:56,699 absence of the intervention? that’s the objective of the 4456 03:13:56,699 --> 03:14:02,633 that’s the objective of the micro analysis, whereas at at 4457 03:14:02,633 --> 03:14:04,433 micro analysis, whereas at at the additional of we call it 4458 03:14:04,433 --> 03:14:06,000 the additional of we call it sometimes as well. Value-added, 4459 03:14:06,000 --> 03:14:07,333 sometimes as well. Value-added, that’s something that we try to 4460 03:14:07,333 --> 03:14:09,767 that’s something that we try to cover. We are the surveys on 4461 03:14:09,767 --> 03:14:12,733 cover. We are the surveys on intermediate level. So where we 4462 03:14:12,733 --> 03:14:15,266 intermediate level. So where we ask the intermediaries in 4463 03:14:15,266 --> 03:14:16,800 ask the intermediaries in particular in our case. A 4464 03:14:16,800 --> 03:14:18,334 particular in our case. A venture capital funds lower mid 4465 03:14:18,334 --> 03:14:20,100 venture capital funds lower mid market funds The Business 4466 03:14:20,100 --> 03:14:21,734 market funds The Business Angels how they see the 4467 03:14:21,734 --> 03:14:25,700 Angels how they see the intervention and how is this 4468 03:14:25,700 --> 03:14:28,733 intervention and how is this additional to the normal 4469 03:14:28,733 --> 03:14:32,333 additional to the normal activities. Yeah. That’s a good 4470 03:14:32,333 --> 03:14:36,000 activities. Yeah. That’s a good point. Yeah. 4471 03:14:36,000 --> 03:14:36,066 point. Yeah. Okay 4472 03:14:36,066 --> 03:14:38,800 Okay well on this I will thank 4473 03:14:38,800 --> 03:14:40,267 Okay well on this I will thank all the participants of this 4474 03:14:40,267 --> 03:14:42,567 all the participants of this session and they will give the 4475 03:14:42,567 --> 03:14:44,900 session and they will give the floor to her. If you’re here 4476 03:14:44,900 --> 03:14:48,767 floor to her. If you’re here they go. Yes. it’s I can you 4477 03:14:48,767 --> 03:14:52,600 they go. Yes. it’s I can you see me and hear me. okay so 4478 03:14:52,600 --> 03:14:55,100 see me and hear me. okay so thank you very much and it has 4479 03:14:55,100 --> 03:14:58,667 thank you very much and it has been a really nice nice event 4480 03:14:58,667 --> 03:15:02,000 been a really nice nice event and I’m really thankful to krug 4481 03:15:02,000 --> 03:15:07,167 and I’m really thankful to krug for a greener to organize. 4482 03:16:10,100 --> 03:16:14,233 This dialogue and I think for 4483 03:16:14,233 --> 03:16:17,000 This dialogue and I think for us the importance is a related 4484 03:16:17,000 --> 03:16:18,866 us the importance is a related that your value. The first one 4485 03:16:18,866 --> 03:16:22,100 that your value. The first one is first of all I an 4486 03:16:22,100 --> 03:16:23,533 is first of all I an opportunity to explaining the 4487 03:16:23,533 --> 03:16:25,300 opportunity to explaining the what we do and get the feedback 4488 03:16:25,300 --> 03:16:28,600 what we do and get the feedback on what we do and that great 4489 03:16:28,600 --> 03:16:30,700 on what we do and that great getting feedback from the 4490 03:16:30,700 --> 03:16:32,733 getting feedback from the scientific community, give us 4491 03:16:32,733 --> 03:16:34,700 scientific community, give us some comfort that the what we 4492 03:16:34,700 --> 03:16:36,367 some comfort that the what we are doing in terms of assessing 4493 03:16:36,367 --> 03:16:38,800 are doing in terms of assessing our impact is a reasonable. 4494 03:16:38,800 --> 03:16:41,200 our impact is a reasonable. That’s what we need so knowing 4495 03:16:41,200 --> 03:16:43,666 That’s what we need so knowing that we try to assess what 4496 03:16:43,666 --> 03:16:46,200 that we try to assess what impact that the result is a 4497 03:16:46,200 --> 03:16:47,900 impact that the result is a Suny considered the reason 4498 03:16:47,900 --> 03:16:50,633 Suny considered the reason Ebola certificate community 4499 03:16:50,633 --> 03:16:52,567 Ebola certificate community Ultimately, this is key to 4500 03:16:52,567 --> 03:16:54,166 Ultimately, this is key to assure that I will share all 4501 03:16:54,166 --> 03:16:56,000 assure that I will share all that said that the money was 4502 03:16:56,000 --> 03:16:58,100 that said that the money was spent as a was a Sunday 4503 03:16:58,100 --> 03:16:59,700 spent as a was a Sunday standing at the beginning of 4504 03:16:59,700 --> 03:17:02,435 standing at the beginning of the events that is. early 4505 03:17:02,435 --> 03:17:04,234 the events that is. early disaster and it’s also 4506 03:17:04,234 --> 03:17:06,469 disaster and it’s also important that for us as a 4507 03:17:06,469 --> 03:17:09,434 important that for us as a European institution. für dein 4508 03:17:09,434 --> 03:17:14,903 European institution. für dein Sinn, bis momentan in die 4509 03:17:22,868 --> 03:17:26,902 Yabi, ähm 4510 03:17:37,802 --> 03:17:40,102 And the impact the more than 4511 03:17:40,102 --> 03:17:41,635 And the impact the more than that address the project by 4512 03:17:41,635 --> 03:17:44,235 that address the project by project and Eal was presenting 4513 03:17:44,235 --> 03:17:50,634 project and Eal was presenting it before I. study more of the 4514 03:17:50,634 --> 03:17:53,635 it before I. study more of the economic level and gara was the 4515 03:17:53,635 --> 03:17:55,103 economic level and gara was the presenting what we are doing 4516 03:17:55,103 --> 03:17:57,735 presenting what we are doing that together with a GFC with 4517 03:17:57,735 --> 03:18:01,166 that together with a GFC with their own model and then the 4518 03:18:01,166 --> 03:18:02,832 their own model and then the Microsoft where we have a lot 4519 03:18:02,832 --> 03:18:04,766 Microsoft where we have a lot to go on in the economics 4520 03:18:04,766 --> 03:18:07,232 to go on in the economics Department, I think a marching. 4521 03:18:07,232 --> 03:18:09,632 Department, I think a marching. Showing that they’ve stuy and 4522 03:18:09,632 --> 03:18:12,132 Showing that they’ve stuy and there is a lot of coming out 4523 03:18:12,132 --> 03:18:15,166 there is a lot of coming out from the Yeah and simoni was 4524 03:18:15,166 --> 03:18:17,801 from the Yeah and simoni was presenting a study that we are 4525 03:18:17,801 --> 03:18:20,199 presenting a study that we are doing We like to think that the 4526 03:18:20,199 --> 03:18:22,733 doing We like to think that the visa three elements and so the 4527 03:18:22,733 --> 03:18:24,132 visa three elements and so the project by project that the 4528 03:18:24,132 --> 03:18:27,367 project by project that the macro portfolio and the Mst so 4529 03:18:27,367 --> 03:18:30,666 macro portfolio and the Mst so the fit together and they refer 4530 03:18:30,666 --> 03:18:32,666 the fit together and they refer each other reinforce each other 4531 03:18:32,666 --> 03:18:34,700 each other reinforce each other because of the we speak to 4532 03:18:34,700 --> 03:18:39,034 because of the we speak to different people and different. 4533 03:20:11,801 --> 03:20:16,599 Alu Or it’s a Google data. to 4534 03:20:16,599 --> 03:20:19,499 Alu Or it’s a Google data. to to try to see the differentiate 4535 03:20:19,499 --> 03:20:20,700 to try to see the differentiate the impact of the classes. I’m 4536 03:20:20,700 --> 03:20:23,233 the impact of the classes. I’m trying to see the the impact of 4537 03:20:23,233 --> 03:20:25,366 trying to see the the impact of the policy response of what who 4538 03:20:25,366 --> 03:20:29,300 the policy response of what who did the and then I know that 4539 03:20:29,300 --> 03:20:30,367 did the and then I know that pointed at the marriage of the 4540 03:20:30,367 --> 03:20:32,633 pointed at the marriage of the quite a lot of today was that 4541 03:20:32,633 --> 03:20:35,400 quite a lot of today was that importance of day and actually 4542 03:20:35,400 --> 03:20:37,266 importance of day and actually it’s not only related that to 4543 03:20:37,266 --> 03:20:39,000 it’s not only related that to new data that it become 4544 03:20:39,000 --> 03:20:41,267 new data that it become available but the importance. 4545 03:20:41,267 --> 03:20:43,500 available but the importance. We all showed in the moment in 4546 03:20:43,500 --> 03:20:45,100 We all showed in the moment in which projects and new 4547 03:20:45,100 --> 03:20:46,767 which projects and new activities are taking place so 4548 03:20:46,767 --> 03:20:49,233 activities are taking place so start thinking how to build the 4549 03:20:49,233 --> 03:20:54,833 start thinking how to build the day for later being able to 4550 03:20:54,833 --> 03:20:57,533 day for later being able to assessing impact and that’s the 4551 03:20:57,533 --> 03:20:59,700 assessing impact and that’s the sound of the toughen is 4552 03:20:59,700 --> 03:21:01,999 sound of the toughen is forgotten in the pressure of 4553 03:21:01,999 --> 03:21:04,733 forgotten in the pressure of putting the new projects into 4554 03:21:04,733 --> 03:21:06,933 putting the new projects into into life and then there is no 4555 03:21:06,933 --> 03:21:08,733 into life and then there is no one side of it all solutions 4556 03:21:08,733 --> 03:21:10,833 one side of it all solutions and they think again. The 4557 03:21:10,833 --> 03:21:14,032 and they think again. The combination of approaches what 4558 03:21:14,032 --> 03:21:17,065 combination of approaches what I think it’s really important 4559 03:21:17,065 --> 03:21:20,132 I think it’s really important to continue to purchase and 4560 03:21:20,132 --> 03:21:22,232 to continue to purchase and then at the final point, that 4561 03:21:22,232 --> 03:21:24,233 then at the final point, that is the importance of 4562 03:21:24,233 --> 03:21:26,367 is the importance of discrimination and I think it 4563 03:21:26,367 --> 03:21:27,833 discrimination and I think it important of dissemination, it 4564 03:21:27,833 --> 03:21:31,766 important of dissemination, it doesn’t go on presenting a nice 4565 03:21:31,766 --> 03:21:36,032 doesn’t go on presenting a nice study. presenting the the the P 4566 03:21:36,032 --> 03:21:37,932 study. presenting the the the P part and the the The The 4567 03:21:37,932 --> 03:21:41,165 part and the the The The analogy is what we have done. 4568 03:21:41,165 --> 03:21:42,498 analogy is what we have done. Batti i piedini del link 4569 03:21:42,498 --> 03:21:45,733 Batti i piedini del link bitcoin di economiche condition 4570 03:21:45,733 --> 03:21:52,066 bitcoin di economiche condition s eh da napoli 4571 03:22:03,434 --> 03:22:06,833 panella natasha 4572 03:22:10,633 --> 03:22:13,066 If we look at the to me in this 4573 03:22:13,066 --> 03:22:15,034 If we look at the to me in this moment that we are all worried 4574 03:22:15,034 --> 03:22:17,166 moment that we are all worried about what are the crisis that 4575 03:22:17,166 --> 03:22:18,966 about what are the crisis that will bring we have a quite a 4576 03:22:18,966 --> 03:22:21,633 will bring we have a quite a seminar and we have seen it the 4577 03:22:21,633 --> 03:22:25,633 seminar and we have seen it the today on we know on the 4578 03:22:25,633 --> 03:22:27,334 today on we know on the economic point of view what are 4579 03:22:27,334 --> 03:22:30,567 economic point of view what are the challenges for the 4580 03:22:30,567 --> 03:22:34,600 the challenges for the challenge or the access to the 4581 03:22:34,600 --> 03:22:36,900 challenge or the access to the trade-off between a library and 4582 03:22:36,900 --> 03:22:40,167 trade-off between a library and investment activities? We all 4583 03:22:40,167 --> 03:22:41,533 investment activities? We all know what that the economic 4584 03:22:41,533 --> 03:22:44,100 know what that the economic condition that we also know 4585 03:22:44,100 --> 03:22:45,767 condition that we also know from past the study and what is 4586 03:22:45,767 --> 03:22:48,233 from past the study and what is the impact of the different 4587 03:22:48,233 --> 03:22:50,600 the impact of the different instruments and the what can be 4588 03:22:50,600 --> 03:22:53,900 instruments and the what can be done so summing up with the 4589 03:22:53,900 --> 03:22:56,166 done so summing up with the economic picture. with the 4590 03:22:56,166 --> 03:22:57,967 economic picture. with the knowledge that we have in terms 4591 03:22:57,967 --> 03:23:00,933 knowledge that we have in terms of study of a certain quality 4592 03:23:00,933 --> 03:23:02,933 of study of a certain quality intervention, we can really 4593 03:23:02,933 --> 03:23:05,700 intervention, we can really give a comfort that that the 4594 03:23:05,700 --> 03:23:06,666 give a comfort that that the measures so that the current 4595 03:23:06,666 --> 03:23:09,733 measures so that the current put in place so we have. The 4596 03:23:09,733 --> 03:23:12,900 put in place so we have. The economy and then at the a-b we 4597 03:23:12,900 --> 03:23:15,133 economy and then at the a-b we try to do it. We are doing it 4598 03:23:15,133 --> 03:23:16,467 try to do it. We are doing it and we are very much committed. 4599 03:23:16,467 --> 03:23:19,100 and we are very much committed. We are as we were saying that 4600 03:23:19,100 --> 03:23:20,533 We are as we were saying that at the beginning that we are 4601 03:23:20,533 --> 03:23:24,066 at the beginning that we are really trying to tied up a much 4602 03:23:24,066 --> 03:23:28,100 really trying to tied up a much more activities in order to be 4603 03:23:28,100 --> 03:23:29,766 more activities in order to be able to to demonstrate that the 4604 03:23:29,766 --> 03:23:30,967 able to to demonstrate that the result and the impact of what 4605 03:23:30,967 --> 03:23:32,867 result and the impact of what we do and we are investing in 4606 03:23:32,867 --> 03:23:35,267 we do and we are investing in all those methodologies and 4607 03:23:35,267 --> 03:23:36,600 all those methodologies and we’re really happy to have an 4608 03:23:36,600 --> 03:23:39,666 we’re really happy to have an opportunity to share. And Luna 4609 03:23:39,666 --> 03:23:42,233 opportunity to share. And Luna and continue open floor of 4610 03:23:42,233 --> 03:23:44,766 and continue open floor of dialogue with the divides. 4611 03:23:44,766 --> 03:23:46,500 dialogue with the divides. contacts. so weed that that 4612 03:23:46,500 --> 03:23:47,933 contacts. so weed that that Thank you very much again for 4613 03:23:47,933 --> 03:23:50,100 Thank you very much again for joining at the meeting today 4614 03:23:50,100 --> 03:23:56,800 joining at the meeting today and and see you next time.