1 00:02:05,699 --> 00:02:08,534 Some companies went up some 2 00:02:08,534 --> 00:02:11,201 Some companies went up some went down some logistic 3 00:02:11,201 --> 00:02:13,801 went down some logistic companies close to business 4 00:02:13,801 --> 00:02:14,533 companies close to business some expended the business 5 00:02:14,533 --> 00:02:16,833 some expended the business suddenly so there you have to 6 00:02:16,833 --> 00:02:18,367 suddenly so there you have to look exactly in which company 7 00:02:18,367 --> 00:02:20,733 look exactly in which company in which part was hit and which 8 00:02:20,733 --> 00:02:22,434 in which part was hit and which was not and therefore we 9 00:02:22,434 --> 00:02:24,234 was not and therefore we established a system of 10 00:02:24,234 --> 00:02:26,333 established a system of dictator analytics because just 11 00:02:26,333 --> 00:02:27,733 dictator analytics because just waiting about what’s going to 12 00:02:27,733 --> 00:02:28,666 waiting about what’s going to happen, it doesn’t work 13 00:02:28,666 --> 00:02:30,600 happen, it doesn’t work anymore. You need to take a 14 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:32,899 anymore. You need to take a real close in on what’s going 15 00:02:32,899 --> 00:02:35,367 real close in on what’s going on the crisis show us how 16 00:02:35,367 --> 00:02:36,800 on the crisis show us how globalized and how small 17 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:38,533 globalized and how small basically the plan is and how 18 00:02:38,533 --> 00:02:41,767 basically the plan is and how what? In our local factories as 19 00:02:41,767 --> 00:02:43,700 what? In our local factories as part of larger chains like an 20 00:02:43,700 --> 00:02:45,533 part of larger chains like an automotive change, it’s just 21 00:02:45,533 --> 00:02:47,333 automotive change, it’s just one ring in a chain and if a 22 00:02:47,333 --> 00:02:49,067 one ring in a chain and if a chain gets rattled all across 23 00:02:49,067 --> 00:02:50,900 chain gets rattled all across the world of course, the chain 24 00:02:50,900 --> 00:02:52,734 the world of course, the chain the chain parts are going left 25 00:02:52,734 --> 00:02:54,633 the chain parts are going left and right and are just uh 26 00:02:54,633 --> 00:02:56,200 and right and are just uh swinging in the wind of 27 00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:57,933 swinging in the wind of uncertainty and I believe that 28 00:02:57,933 --> 00:03:00,234 uncertainty and I believe that is also a strong lesson to 29 00:03:00,234 --> 00:03:02,700 is also a strong lesson to learn that um being part of the 30 00:03:02,700 --> 00:03:03,733 learn that um being part of the chain does not make you very 31 00:03:03,733 --> 00:03:05,767 chain does not make you very resilient for such a crisis The 32 00:03:05,767 --> 00:03:07,300 resilient for such a crisis The border to opponent was open. 33 00:03:07,300 --> 00:03:10,967 border to opponent was open. You could move goods easily 34 00:03:10,967 --> 00:03:12,400 You could move goods easily over uh over the border and it 35 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:13,433 over uh over the border and it was in Europe. It was only the 36 00:03:13,433 --> 00:03:17,000 was in Europe. It was only the restriction was only put on. 37 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,600 restriction was only put on. Level but the company that 38 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:21,767 Level but the company that would that would receive the 39 00:03:21,767 --> 00:03:24,234 would that would receive the track these companies were shut 40 00:03:24,234 --> 00:03:25,200 track these companies were shut down completely and they didn’t 41 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,233 down completely and they didn’t have the people to unload the 42 00:03:28,233 --> 00:03:29,767 have the people to unload the tracks so everything was 43 00:03:29,767 --> 00:03:31,299 tracks so everything was prepared on our level to be 44 00:03:31,299 --> 00:03:34,700 prepared on our level to be shipped and we had to take some 45 00:03:34,700 --> 00:03:36,900 shipped and we had to take some actions in order to uh to store 46 00:03:36,900 --> 00:03:38,801 actions in order to uh to store it somewhere else. We know that 47 00:03:38,801 --> 00:03:39,300 it somewhere else. We know that we were strongly dependent on 48 00:03:39,300 --> 00:03:41,699 we were strongly dependent on the Asian market and I think 49 00:03:41,699 --> 00:03:43,733 the Asian market and I think there uh we saw limits and we 50 00:03:43,733 --> 00:03:45,967 there uh we saw limits and we saw that uh the whole 51 00:03:45,967 --> 00:03:49,134 saw that uh the whole globalized. As we are uh having 52 00:03:49,134 --> 00:03:50,933 globalized. As we are uh having it at the moment we need to 53 00:03:50,933 --> 00:03:52,667 it at the moment we need to have um some alternative way 54 00:03:52,667 --> 00:03:54,967 have um some alternative way and uh go back more local 55 00:03:54,967 --> 00:03:56,234 and uh go back more local production. There’s a lot of 56 00:03:56,234 --> 00:03:58,900 production. There’s a lot of beauty in a very low and we 57 00:03:58,900 --> 00:04:00,400 beauty in a very low and we should not underestimate that 58 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,333 should not underestimate that and I think change is gonna be 59 00:04:02,333 --> 00:04:03,467 and I think change is gonna be it’s gonna happen on the local 60 00:04:03,467 --> 00:04:05,600 it’s gonna happen on the local level and on a micro level she 61 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:08,634 level and on a micro level she was your prediction to a 62 00:04:08,634 --> 00:04:15,533 was your prediction to a particular and live activity 63 00:04:15,533 --> 00:04:18,333 particular and live activity and. qui me concerne. Donc euh, 64 00:04:18,333 --> 00:04:20,601 and. qui me concerne. Donc euh, la globalisation dans certains 65 00:04:20,601 --> 00:04:24,667 la globalisation dans certains cas c’est un risque, dans notre 66 00:04:31,200 --> 00:04:34,899 cas c’est une chance. Euh, 67 00:04:34,899 --> 00:04:38,267 cas c’est une chance. Euh, cent-trente uses 68 00:04:43,533 --> 00:04:43,967 positives pour une 69 00:04:43,967 --> 00:04:47,367 positives pour une globalisation First industry 70 00:04:47,367 --> 00:04:49,634 globalisation First industry that comes into uh uh a country 71 00:04:49,634 --> 00:04:51,400 that comes into uh uh a country and gives people work and helps 72 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:53,767 and gives people work and helps people out of out of poverty, 73 00:04:53,767 --> 00:04:56,434 people out of out of poverty, but only if prices are fair if 74 00:04:56,434 --> 00:04:59,433 but only if prices are fair if cost of if if if the work is is 75 00:04:59,433 --> 00:05:04,733 cost of if if if the work is is is humanely 76 00:05:16,999 --> 00:05:19,566 organized. eh lo voglio vedere 77 00:05:19,566 --> 00:05:21,700 organized. eh lo voglio vedere non come un limite ma come un 78 00:05:21,700 --> 00:05:23,167 non come un limite ma come un obiettivo perché se devo 79 00:05:23,167 --> 00:05:23,900 obiettivo perché se devo pensare che il confine limiti 80 00:05:23,900 --> 00:05:25,967 pensare che il confine limiti qualcosa è un’idea che non mi 81 00:05:25,967 --> 00:05:27,267 qualcosa è un’idea che non mi piace soprattutto nel futuro 82 00:05:27,267 --> 00:05:29,000 piace soprattutto nel futuro soprattutto in ottica di 83 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:31,067 soprattutto in ottica di crescita anche industriale, 84 00:05:31,067 --> 00:05:34,334 crescita anche industriale, imprenditoriale 85 00:06:26,967 --> 00:06:31,234 eh Many people hold the 86 00:06:31,234 --> 00:06:34,101 eh Many people hold the globalization uh partially 87 00:06:34,101 --> 00:06:36,933 globalization uh partially responsible for for the covet 88 00:06:36,933 --> 00:06:40,234 responsible for for the covet pandemic and uh also partially 89 00:06:40,234 --> 00:06:42,266 pandemic and uh also partially for the difficulties that we 90 00:06:42,266 --> 00:06:44,399 for the difficulties that we all faced at the at the start 91 00:06:44,399 --> 00:06:46,434 all faced at the at the start of the uh of the crisis, at 92 00:06:46,434 --> 00:06:48,900 of the uh of the crisis, at least uh you know having uh a 93 00:06:48,900 --> 00:06:52,367 least uh you know having uh a shortage of masks and other 94 00:06:52,367 --> 00:06:54,533 shortage of masks and other medical products, It seemed 95 00:06:54,533 --> 00:06:56,400 medical products, It seemed that you know there was no more 96 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:58,267 that you know there was no more uh local production in in our. 97 00:06:58,267 --> 00:07:01,699 uh local production in in our. All the production and moved to 98 00:07:01,699 --> 00:07:04,933 All the production and moved to uh to Asia to China and uh 99 00:07:04,933 --> 00:07:06,399 uh to Asia to China and uh again globalization was uh was 100 00:07:06,399 --> 00:07:08,766 again globalization was uh was being blamed for that and 101 00:07:08,766 --> 00:07:11,733 being blamed for that and obviously a globalization was 102 00:07:11,733 --> 00:07:13,867 obviously a globalization was already uh held responsible 103 00:07:13,867 --> 00:07:17,833 already uh held responsible before uh the crisis for a 104 00:07:17,833 --> 00:07:18,467 before uh the crisis for a number of other problems that 105 00:07:18,467 --> 00:07:22,367 number of other problems that our societies are facing uh 106 00:07:22,367 --> 00:07:25,833 our societies are facing uh unemployment um rising 107 00:07:25,833 --> 00:07:27,834 unemployment um rising inequality uh global warming 108 00:07:27,834 --> 00:07:32,267 inequality uh global warming and in all. The face of 109 00:07:32,267 --> 00:07:33,800 and in all. The face of globalization uh held 110 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:35,133 globalization uh held responsible for this was 111 00:07:35,133 --> 00:07:37,633 responsible for this was typically also uh emerging 112 00:07:37,633 --> 00:07:39,267 typically also uh emerging countries developing countries 113 00:07:39,267 --> 00:07:41,967 countries developing countries and uh maybe China first and 114 00:07:41,967 --> 00:07:45,833 and uh maybe China first and foremost so lots of lots of 115 00:07:45,833 --> 00:07:48,433 foremost so lots of lots of issues to discuss about 116 00:07:48,433 --> 00:07:49,834 issues to discuss about globalization. Does it have a 117 00:07:49,834 --> 00:07:53,199 globalization. Does it have a future? uh if at all um I don’t 118 00:07:53,199 --> 00:07:56,234 future? uh if at all um I don’t think we could have found a 119 00:07:56,234 --> 00:07:57,434 think we could have found a better person to to discuss 120 00:07:57,434 --> 00:08:00,734 better person to to discuss this issue then uh professor. 121 00:08:00,734 --> 00:08:03,934 this issue then uh professor. Erick uh professors at Harvard 122 00:08:03,934 --> 00:08:05,433 Erick uh professors at Harvard University now that is uh as a 123 00:08:05,433 --> 00:08:08,000 University now that is uh as a long and distinguished career 124 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,467 long and distinguished career as a professor at Harvard 125 00:08:10,467 --> 00:08:12,000 as a professor at Harvard University, uh spend uh a 126 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:13,433 University, uh spend uh a couple of years if I if I 127 00:08:13,433 --> 00:08:15,801 couple of years if I if I remember properly at the at 128 00:08:15,801 --> 00:08:17,666 remember properly at the at Princeton at the Institute for 129 00:08:17,666 --> 00:08:19,801 Princeton at the Institute for Advanced uh at advance studies, 130 00:08:19,801 --> 00:08:21,299 Advanced uh at advance studies, then I came back to uh to 131 00:08:21,299 --> 00:08:23,867 then I came back to uh to Harvard Danny’s Research 132 00:08:23,867 --> 00:08:27,733 Harvard Danny’s Research focuses on globalization growth 133 00:08:27,733 --> 00:08:29,167 focuses on globalization growth and development and uh and 134 00:08:29,167 --> 00:08:31,767 and development and uh and political economies is really 135 00:08:31,767 --> 00:08:33,967 political economies is really uh written extensively and uh 136 00:08:33,967 --> 00:08:39,866 uh written extensively and uh magnifi. On all of those issues 137 00:08:39,866 --> 00:08:42,434 magnifi. On all of those issues uh and uh it’s true that he was 138 00:08:42,434 --> 00:08:46,367 uh and uh it’s true that he was also one of the early voices um 139 00:08:46,367 --> 00:08:47,067 also one of the early voices um to raise at least in the 140 00:08:47,067 --> 00:08:49,367 to raise at least in the economics profession to raise 141 00:08:49,367 --> 00:08:50,767 economics profession to raise some questions some important 142 00:08:50,767 --> 00:08:54,234 some questions some important questions uh about the 143 00:08:54,234 --> 00:08:56,167 questions uh about the globalization we all remember 144 00:08:56,167 --> 00:08:59,667 globalization we all remember 1997 uh book uh has 145 00:08:59,667 --> 00:09:01,267 1997 uh book uh has globalization gone too far so 146 00:09:01,267 --> 00:09:04,234 globalization gone too far so already back then uh it’s about 147 00:09:04,234 --> 00:09:06,734 already back then uh it’s about globalization where uh being 148 00:09:06,734 --> 00:09:10,934 globalization where uh being raised no doubt that. Then 149 00:09:10,934 --> 00:09:13,533 raised no doubt that. Then Roderick is deeply committed to 150 00:09:13,533 --> 00:09:16,200 Roderick is deeply committed to um to social justice and this 151 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:18,966 um to social justice and this has let him last year in 2019 152 00:09:18,966 --> 00:09:21,867 has let him last year in 2019 uh together with the other uh 153 00:09:21,867 --> 00:09:25,401 uh together with the other uh economist to fund and not to to 154 00:09:25,401 --> 00:09:27,899 economist to fund and not to to direct the economics for 155 00:09:27,899 --> 00:09:29,733 direct the economics for inclusive prosperity network uh 156 00:09:29,733 --> 00:09:33,500 inclusive prosperity network uh that is making very valuable. 157 00:09:33,500 --> 00:09:34,300 that is making very valuable. contribution to issues relating 158 00:09:34,300 --> 00:09:38,833 contribution to issues relating to uh to social uh to social. 159 00:09:38,833 --> 00:09:40,234 to uh to social uh to social. Justice from the economy 160 00:09:40,234 --> 00:09:43,301 Justice from the economy analytical uh viewpoint so 161 00:09:43,301 --> 00:09:45,533 analytical uh viewpoint so Danny will we will speak for 30 162 00:09:45,533 --> 00:09:47,367 Danny will we will speak for 30 minutes? We’ll use a slides uh 163 00:09:47,367 --> 00:09:50,000 minutes? We’ll use a slides uh so we will make a presentation 164 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:51,467 so we will make a presentation during the presentation you the 165 00:09:51,467 --> 00:09:55,366 during the presentation you the the audience uh will be able 166 00:09:55,366 --> 00:09:57,801 the audience uh will be able already uh to ask questions 167 00:09:57,801 --> 00:09:59,599 already uh to ask questions using slider the application 168 00:09:59,599 --> 00:10:01,967 using slider the application that we use for this for this 169 00:10:01,967 --> 00:10:05,699 that we use for this for this purpose and after is 170 00:10:05,699 --> 00:10:08,500 purpose and after is presentation um I will then uh 171 00:10:08,500 --> 00:10:09,733 presentation um I will then uh post a question uh they would 172 00:10:09,733 --> 00:10:12,433 post a question uh they would be a poll. And to live you have 173 00:10:12,433 --> 00:10:14,766 be a poll. And to live you have a little bit of time to uh to 174 00:10:14,766 --> 00:10:17,334 a little bit of time to uh to answer that question during 175 00:10:17,334 --> 00:10:20,433 answer that question during that time, uh I will start a 176 00:10:20,433 --> 00:10:22,367 that time, uh I will start a dialogue with the with Danny I 177 00:10:22,367 --> 00:10:25,233 dialogue with the with Danny I will um I will you know put my 178 00:10:25,233 --> 00:10:26,667 will um I will you know put my own questions but I will 179 00:10:26,667 --> 00:10:29,467 own questions but I will obviously already relay uh some 180 00:10:29,467 --> 00:10:30,767 obviously already relay uh some of the questions that you the 181 00:10:30,767 --> 00:10:32,233 of the questions that you the audience will will have and 182 00:10:32,233 --> 00:10:34,367 audience will will have and we’ll continue to post 183 00:10:34,367 --> 00:10:36,400 we’ll continue to post throughout this hour so Danny 184 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:38,567 throughout this hour so Danny uh the floor is ours is yours 185 00:10:38,567 --> 00:10:42,467 uh the floor is ours is yours for 30 minutes. Thank you very 186 00:10:42,467 --> 00:10:44,899 for 30 minutes. Thank you very much Andrea Thank you to uh for 187 00:10:44,899 --> 00:10:46,934 much Andrea Thank you to uh for the invitation. It’s very nice 188 00:10:46,934 --> 00:10:50,833 the invitation. It’s very nice to be here virtually um with 189 00:10:50,833 --> 00:10:52,834 to be here virtually um with everybody who’s who’s watching 190 00:10:52,834 --> 00:10:54,600 everybody who’s who’s watching and and I really look forward 191 00:10:54,600 --> 00:10:57,034 and and I really look forward to the discussion uh that we’ll 192 00:10:57,034 --> 00:10:58,534 to the discussion uh that we’ll have with you, Andrea and the 193 00:10:58,534 --> 00:11:00,733 have with you, Andrea and the audience uh at the end of my my 194 00:11:00,733 --> 00:11:02,867 audience uh at the end of my my remarks uh I guess if there is 195 00:11:02,867 --> 00:11:05,466 remarks uh I guess if there is um one thing that perhaps I’d 196 00:11:05,466 --> 00:11:08,866 um one thing that perhaps I’d like you to take from my uh 197 00:11:08,866 --> 00:11:10,500 like you to take from my uh presentation is that um you 198 00:11:10,500 --> 00:11:14,201 presentation is that um you know we should. Globalization 199 00:11:14,201 --> 00:11:16,733 know we should. Globalization not just as one thing uh that 200 00:11:16,733 --> 00:11:18,267 not just as one thing uh that there are many different 201 00:11:18,267 --> 00:11:21,467 there are many different globalization Uh there are many 202 00:11:21,467 --> 00:11:23,666 globalization Uh there are many questions that we need to 203 00:11:23,666 --> 00:11:24,833 questions that we need to answer and and depending on how 204 00:11:24,833 --> 00:11:26,934 answer and and depending on how we answer those questions, 205 00:11:26,934 --> 00:11:28,866 we answer those questions, we’re in fact going to get a 206 00:11:28,866 --> 00:11:29,334 we’re in fact going to get a different kinds of 207 00:11:29,334 --> 00:11:31,333 different kinds of globalization, Some that are 208 00:11:31,333 --> 00:11:34,399 globalization, Some that are more inclusive more conducive 209 00:11:34,399 --> 00:11:35,700 more inclusive more conducive to stability and prosperity 210 00:11:35,700 --> 00:11:38,534 to stability and prosperity than others uh but um at the 211 00:11:38,534 --> 00:11:39,666 than others uh but um at the minimum we have to answer 212 00:11:39,666 --> 00:11:40,933 minimum we have to answer questions like what is the 213 00:11:40,933 --> 00:11:45,600 questions like what is the scope of? Um uh or to use the 214 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:48,299 scope of? Um uh or to use the terms of my uh Robert Lawrence 215 00:11:48,299 --> 00:11:52,266 terms of my uh Robert Lawrence uh do we want uh deep or 216 00:11:52,266 --> 00:11:53,967 uh do we want uh deep or shallow integration of national 217 00:11:53,967 --> 00:11:55,700 shallow integration of national markets or which marketer 218 00:11:55,700 --> 00:11:57,234 markets or which marketer should be integrated deeply, 219 00:11:57,234 --> 00:11:59,333 should be integrated deeply, which should be more shallow 220 00:11:59,333 --> 00:12:00,933 which should be more shallow connected. Uh what should be 221 00:12:00,933 --> 00:12:03,234 connected. Uh what should be the rules that markets and 222 00:12:03,234 --> 00:12:04,667 the rules that markets and ultimately who is going to 223 00:12:04,667 --> 00:12:07,400 ultimately who is going to decide on those rules and uh 224 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,600 decide on those rules and uh what I want to illustrate um in 225 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:11,000 what I want to illustrate um in in my comments is how depending 226 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:12,533 in my comments is how depending on how we’re answering these 227 00:12:12,533 --> 00:12:14,900 on how we’re answering these kinds. We are going to be 228 00:12:14,900 --> 00:12:17,300 kinds. We are going to be getting different models of 229 00:12:17,300 --> 00:12:18,767 getting different models of globalization and if we are 230 00:12:18,767 --> 00:12:20,867 globalization and if we are willing to make that leap to 231 00:12:20,867 --> 00:12:22,600 willing to make that leap to thinking about different kinds 232 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:24,000 thinking about different kinds of models of globalization, 233 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:25,467 of models of globalization, different globalization that we 234 00:12:25,467 --> 00:12:28,666 different globalization that we can start thinking not in terms 235 00:12:28,666 --> 00:12:30,767 can start thinking not in terms of more or less mobilization or 236 00:12:30,767 --> 00:12:31,900 of more or less mobilization or do we give up on globalization 237 00:12:31,900 --> 00:12:34,666 do we give up on globalization or do we uh embrace it uh but 238 00:12:34,666 --> 00:12:35,834 or do we uh embrace it uh but we start thinking about the 239 00:12:35,834 --> 00:12:37,733 we start thinking about the kinds of globalization that uh 240 00:12:37,733 --> 00:12:40,966 kinds of globalization that uh we do want to have um and now 241 00:12:40,966 --> 00:12:42,700 we do want to have um and now I’ll present you my views on 242 00:12:42,700 --> 00:12:44,000 I’ll present you my views on the kinds of globalization that 243 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:45,967 the kinds of globalization that that I’d like to see but I 244 00:12:45,967 --> 00:12:49,267 that I’d like to see but I wanna. Back to basics and ask 245 00:12:49,267 --> 00:12:50,834 wanna. Back to basics and ask since we’re asking big 246 00:12:50,834 --> 00:12:54,700 since we’re asking big questions about the design of 247 00:12:54,700 --> 00:12:56,500 questions about the design of globalization, I wanna go back 248 00:12:56,500 --> 00:12:58,967 globalization, I wanna go back and um ask how can we have 249 00:12:58,967 --> 00:13:02,267 and um ask how can we have markets? um so we know even 250 00:13:02,267 --> 00:13:04,434 markets? um so we know even back from Adam Smith um who 251 00:13:04,434 --> 00:13:07,667 back from Adam Smith um who made uh as good a case for a 252 00:13:07,667 --> 00:13:10,566 made uh as good a case for a free markets um as as anybody 253 00:13:10,566 --> 00:13:13,800 free markets um as as anybody has uh since then you know from 254 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:17,400 has uh since then you know from that um markets always. Rules 255 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:18,767 that um markets always. Rules and regulations that markets 256 00:13:18,767 --> 00:13:20,400 and regulations that markets are not self creating they’re 257 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:22,767 are not self creating they’re not regulating. They’re not 258 00:13:22,767 --> 00:13:25,266 not regulating. They’re not self-sustaining um and um and 259 00:13:25,266 --> 00:13:26,734 self-sustaining um and um and and Adam Smith talked about um 260 00:13:26,734 --> 00:13:28,700 and Adam Smith talked about um kind of you know the need for a 261 00:13:28,700 --> 00:13:29,866 kind of you know the need for a tolerable administration of 262 00:13:29,866 --> 00:13:31,967 tolerable administration of justice or what perhaps today 263 00:13:31,967 --> 00:13:33,733 justice or what perhaps today we might call sort of things 264 00:13:33,733 --> 00:13:35,767 we might call sort of things like property rights or 265 00:13:35,767 --> 00:13:36,267 like property rights or contracting enforcement and 266 00:13:36,267 --> 00:13:38,800 contracting enforcement and rule of law and indeed, you 267 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,299 rule of law and indeed, you know sort of the the classical 268 00:13:41,299 --> 00:13:43,499 know sort of the the classical liberal variant of a market 269 00:13:43,499 --> 00:13:45,033 liberal variant of a market economy or market capitalism 270 00:13:45,033 --> 00:13:48,466 economy or market capitalism is. There was a relatively thin 271 00:13:48,466 --> 00:13:50,934 is. There was a relatively thin veneer of rules uh but at the 272 00:13:50,934 --> 00:13:53,201 veneer of rules uh but at the very minimum, you need those 273 00:13:53,201 --> 00:13:55,567 very minimum, you need those rules like um uh enforcement of 274 00:13:55,567 --> 00:13:57,867 rules like um uh enforcement of property rights enforcement of 275 00:13:57,867 --> 00:13:58,834 property rights enforcement of contrast, contract law and 276 00:13:58,834 --> 00:14:01,266 contrast, contract law and certain group of predictability 277 00:14:01,266 --> 00:14:02,866 certain group of predictability in the administration of 278 00:14:02,866 --> 00:14:05,666 in the administration of justice and and enforce of the 279 00:14:05,666 --> 00:14:09,433 justice and and enforce of the rule of law now um over time if 280 00:14:09,433 --> 00:14:11,167 rule of law now um over time if that was sort of the classical 281 00:14:11,167 --> 00:14:13,433 that was sort of the classical liberal variant of capitalism, 282 00:14:13,433 --> 00:14:15,566 liberal variant of capitalism, uh what of course what in many 283 00:14:15,566 --> 00:14:19,000 uh what of course what in many places? Of course, has taken 284 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,800 places? Of course, has taken the lead here um is we’ve had 285 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:26,000 the lead here um is we’ve had um variant of market capitalism 286 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:27,767 um variant of market capitalism uh that has had a much more 287 00:14:27,767 --> 00:14:29,967 uh that has had a much more extensive much sort of a deeper 288 00:14:29,967 --> 00:14:32,301 extensive much sort of a deeper set of rules um and we might 289 00:14:32,301 --> 00:14:35,200 set of rules um and we might call this uh perhaps the social 290 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:36,367 call this uh perhaps the social democratic variant of the 291 00:14:36,367 --> 00:14:38,767 democratic variant of the market economy where we where 292 00:14:38,767 --> 00:14:41,699 market economy where we where we go beyond the the the 293 00:14:41,699 --> 00:14:44,167 we go beyond the the the minimal requirements of of of 294 00:14:44,167 --> 00:14:45,833 minimal requirements of of of of maintaining markets that we 295 00:14:45,833 --> 00:14:48,300 of maintaining markets that we go much. In terms of making 296 00:14:48,300 --> 00:14:50,967 go much. In terms of making those market outcomes 297 00:14:50,967 --> 00:14:53,301 those market outcomes compatible with broader social 298 00:14:53,301 --> 00:14:54,900 compatible with broader social preferences, social justice 299 00:14:54,900 --> 00:14:57,167 preferences, social justice equity fairness um and so the 300 00:14:57,167 --> 00:14:59,767 equity fairness um and so the social democratic variant ads 301 00:14:59,767 --> 00:15:01,400 social democratic variant ads on property rights, contract 302 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,666 on property rights, contract enforcement and rule of law. um 303 00:15:03,666 --> 00:15:05,467 enforcement and rule of law. um so additional rules and 304 00:15:05,467 --> 00:15:06,234 so additional rules and regulations, which would 305 00:15:06,234 --> 00:15:07,100 regulations, which would respect to the provision of 306 00:15:07,100 --> 00:15:08,667 respect to the provision of social rights preserve 307 00:15:08,667 --> 00:15:10,733 social rights preserve provision of labor protections 308 00:15:10,733 --> 00:15:12,666 provision of labor protections uh taxation and other measures 309 00:15:12,666 --> 00:15:14,234 uh taxation and other measures for the provision of 310 00:15:14,234 --> 00:15:15,467 for the provision of redistribution um wide range 311 00:15:15,467 --> 00:15:19,967 redistribution um wide range of. Good and so forth, so we 312 00:15:19,967 --> 00:15:21,700 of. Good and so forth, so we know all of this in terms of 313 00:15:21,700 --> 00:15:24,299 know all of this in terms of what we need markets to 314 00:15:24,299 --> 00:15:26,066 what we need markets to function domestically. what 315 00:15:26,066 --> 00:15:27,833 function domestically. what we’re talking about 316 00:15:27,833 --> 00:15:28,566 we’re talking about globalization and therefore 317 00:15:28,566 --> 00:15:30,767 globalization and therefore we’re talking about the 318 00:15:30,767 --> 00:15:32,466 we’re talking about the possibility or the shape that 319 00:15:32,466 --> 00:15:34,634 possibility or the shape that global markets should take. and 320 00:15:34,634 --> 00:15:37,301 global markets should take. and so there’s a question mark here 321 00:15:37,301 --> 00:15:38,000 so there’s a question mark here uh question has to do whether 322 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,367 uh question has to do whether we can have essentially the 323 00:15:40,367 --> 00:15:42,634 we can have essentially the global equivalent of those 324 00:15:42,634 --> 00:15:46,900 global equivalent of those domestic markets um and by Ana. 325 00:15:46,900 --> 00:15:48,566 domestic markets um and by Ana. If we’re going to have global 326 00:15:48,566 --> 00:15:49,801 If we’re going to have global markets that integrated 327 00:15:49,801 --> 00:15:51,767 markets that integrated marketers that no difference 328 00:15:51,767 --> 00:15:53,733 marketers that no difference between a national borders 329 00:15:53,733 --> 00:15:54,900 between a national borders don’t make much of a 330 00:15:54,900 --> 00:15:56,534 don’t make much of a difference. uh then we would 331 00:15:56,534 --> 00:15:57,967 difference. uh then we would need to have um some global 332 00:15:57,967 --> 00:16:00,167 need to have um some global rules and regulations uh to a 333 00:16:00,167 --> 00:16:04,200 rules and regulations uh to a called uh those marketers now 334 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:05,800 called uh those marketers now if your view of the kind of 335 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,299 if your view of the kind of market economy you want uh 336 00:16:08,299 --> 00:16:10,700 market economy you want uh aligns still with the classical 337 00:16:10,700 --> 00:16:13,266 aligns still with the classical liberal variant, which is that 338 00:16:13,266 --> 00:16:14,767 liberal variant, which is that all you need for markets to 339 00:16:14,767 --> 00:16:16,466 all you need for markets to function well are sort of 340 00:16:16,466 --> 00:16:18,834 function well are sort of these. Your rights contract 341 00:16:18,834 --> 00:16:21,334 these. Your rights contract enforcement rule of the minimal 342 00:16:21,334 --> 00:16:22,634 enforcement rule of the minimal requirement for the official 343 00:16:22,634 --> 00:16:25,500 requirement for the official functioning of markets uh and 344 00:16:25,500 --> 00:16:26,900 functioning of markets uh and the presumption that market 345 00:16:26,900 --> 00:16:28,833 the presumption that market values are very few and far in 346 00:16:28,833 --> 00:16:30,333 values are very few and far in between so that you don’t 347 00:16:30,333 --> 00:16:31,834 between so that you don’t actually need a much more that 348 00:16:31,834 --> 00:16:33,134 actually need a much more that you don’t have particular 349 00:16:33,134 --> 00:16:34,733 you don’t have particular distributed on social 350 00:16:34,733 --> 00:16:37,134 distributed on social objectives. If that’s your view 351 00:16:37,134 --> 00:16:38,767 objectives. If that’s your view of what markets actually 352 00:16:38,767 --> 00:16:41,400 of what markets actually require, then the good news is 353 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,699 require, then the good news is that you can indeed have a 354 00:16:43,699 --> 00:16:46,000 that you can indeed have a global markets um and um going 355 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,301 global markets um and um going back. If you will to the very 356 00:16:48,301 --> 00:16:50,534 back. If you will to the very first model of globalization, 357 00:16:50,534 --> 00:16:51,933 first model of globalization, the classical gold standard 358 00:16:51,933 --> 00:16:55,867 the classical gold standard between let’s say 1880 and 1914 359 00:16:55,867 --> 00:16:57,767 between let’s say 1880 and 1914 was a model of globalization 360 00:16:57,767 --> 00:17:01,233 was a model of globalization where we are essentially um had 361 00:17:01,233 --> 00:17:03,100 where we are essentially um had globalization married to a set 362 00:17:03,100 --> 00:17:05,167 globalization married to a set of a set of institutions that 363 00:17:05,167 --> 00:17:07,833 of a set of institutions that reflected the classical liberal 364 00:17:07,833 --> 00:17:09,266 reflected the classical liberal understanding of thin veneer of 365 00:17:09,266 --> 00:17:12,567 understanding of thin veneer of rules. so in that view, all you 366 00:17:12,567 --> 00:17:15,467 rules. so in that view, all you need to do is basically ensure 367 00:17:15,467 --> 00:17:18,934 need to do is basically ensure that um. And borrowers um uh 368 00:17:18,934 --> 00:17:20,467 that um. And borrowers um uh paid their debt back the 369 00:17:20,467 --> 00:17:23,034 paid their debt back the contracts were sacrosanct um 370 00:17:23,034 --> 00:17:24,366 contracts were sacrosanct um and if uh that’s we’re not 371 00:17:24,366 --> 00:17:26,867 and if uh that’s we’re not being paid and then one of the 372 00:17:26,867 --> 00:17:29,300 being paid and then one of the metropolitan powers with Sandy 373 00:17:29,300 --> 00:17:31,733 metropolitan powers with Sandy combos over to you to make sure 374 00:17:31,733 --> 00:17:33,566 combos over to you to make sure that those that contracts would 375 00:17:33,566 --> 00:17:35,834 that those that contracts would be uh would be enforced but 376 00:17:35,834 --> 00:17:37,900 be uh would be enforced but things get more complicated. Uh 377 00:17:37,900 --> 00:17:39,667 things get more complicated. Uh you know if we talk about sort 378 00:17:39,667 --> 00:17:41,900 you know if we talk about sort of the social Democratic 379 00:17:41,900 --> 00:17:44,367 of the social Democratic variant on this uh that 380 00:17:44,367 --> 00:17:47,167 variant on this uh that understanding of. Rules and 381 00:17:47,167 --> 00:17:49,266 understanding of. Rules and regulations that uphold a 382 00:17:49,266 --> 00:17:50,667 regulations that uphold a markets uh because when we 383 00:17:50,667 --> 00:17:52,300 markets uh because when we think about where that social 384 00:17:52,300 --> 00:17:54,867 think about where that social Democratic variant comes from 385 00:17:54,867 --> 00:17:56,533 Democratic variant comes from it comes from essentially the 386 00:17:56,533 --> 00:17:58,801 it comes from essentially the deepening of the democratic 387 00:17:58,801 --> 00:18:00,334 deepening of the democratic accountability in our societies 388 00:18:00,334 --> 00:18:01,900 accountability in our societies that the reason that the 389 00:18:01,900 --> 00:18:04,434 that the reason that the classical liberal variant of 390 00:18:04,434 --> 00:18:05,400 classical liberal variant of Manchester liberalism if you 391 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,533 Manchester liberalism if you will disappeared, is that we 392 00:18:07,533 --> 00:18:09,900 will disappeared, is that we had uh the expansion of the 393 00:18:09,900 --> 00:18:12,367 had uh the expansion of the franchise uh the creation of a 394 00:18:12,367 --> 00:18:14,133 franchise uh the creation of a mass labor movement uh the rise 395 00:18:14,133 --> 00:18:16,167 mass labor movement uh the rise of mass media, the 396 00:18:16,167 --> 00:18:17,233 of mass media, the institutionalization of 397 00:18:17,233 --> 00:18:19,699 institutionalization of politics the spread of. The 398 00:18:19,699 --> 00:18:22,733 politics the spread of. The Democratic and what that means 399 00:18:22,733 --> 00:18:24,166 Democratic and what that means is that with Democratic 400 00:18:24,166 --> 00:18:27,734 is that with Democratic accountable with decision 401 00:18:27,734 --> 00:18:30,800 accountable with decision making. goal making being 402 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:32,000 making. goal making being responsible to a wider and 403 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,234 responsible to a wider and broader group of stakeholders 404 00:18:34,234 --> 00:18:35,733 broader group of stakeholders that means that that 405 00:18:35,733 --> 00:18:38,466 that means that that essentially we also leave the 406 00:18:38,466 --> 00:18:39,766 essentially we also leave the shape those rules and 407 00:18:39,766 --> 00:18:42,400 shape those rules and regulations are up to the 408 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:43,833 regulations are up to the preferences the decision making 409 00:18:43,833 --> 00:18:45,966 preferences the decision making of the electorate or domestic 410 00:18:45,966 --> 00:18:47,167 of the electorate or domestic uh stakeholders. What that 411 00:18:47,167 --> 00:18:49,500 uh stakeholders. What that means is that. We have a 412 00:18:49,500 --> 00:18:50,766 means is that. We have a democratic accountable to you 413 00:18:50,766 --> 00:18:52,667 democratic accountable to you for rule, making we need to 414 00:18:52,667 --> 00:18:55,666 for rule, making we need to talk about um democracies uh 415 00:18:55,666 --> 00:18:57,867 talk about um democracies uh choosing their own variant of 416 00:18:57,867 --> 00:19:01,100 choosing their own variant of um the uh the the rules and 417 00:19:01,100 --> 00:19:03,701 um the uh the the rules and regulations that uphold markets 418 00:19:03,701 --> 00:19:05,300 regulations that uphold markets so even within the social 419 00:19:05,300 --> 00:19:06,801 so even within the social democratic variant, we have 420 00:19:06,801 --> 00:19:09,234 democratic variant, we have different nations um this 421 00:19:09,234 --> 00:19:09,900 different nations um this deciding on very different 422 00:19:09,900 --> 00:19:11,733 deciding on very different labor market rules the 423 00:19:11,733 --> 00:19:13,566 labor market rules the different social protections uh 424 00:19:13,566 --> 00:19:14,833 different social protections uh different industrial policy 425 00:19:14,833 --> 00:19:16,466 different industrial policy regimes a different tax regimes 426 00:19:16,466 --> 00:19:21,000 regimes a different tax regimes and so forth so Democrat. 427 00:19:54,767 --> 00:19:57,567 The other person uh is that we 428 00:19:57,567 --> 00:19:58,834 The other person uh is that we actually enshrined the 429 00:19:58,834 --> 00:20:00,466 actually enshrined the democratic because we 430 00:20:00,466 --> 00:20:02,899 democratic because we understand that set of domestic 431 00:20:02,899 --> 00:20:04,233 understand that set of domestic economic regulations that moves 432 00:20:04,233 --> 00:20:07,000 economic regulations that moves that are responsive to domestic 433 00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,267 that are responsive to domestic qualities are necessarily going 434 00:20:09,267 --> 00:20:10,867 qualities are necessarily going to impose because of 435 00:20:10,867 --> 00:20:12,299 to impose because of institutional differences and 436 00:20:12,299 --> 00:20:13,366 institutional differences and differences in rules you’re 437 00:20:13,366 --> 00:20:15,166 differences in rules you’re going to impose transactions 438 00:20:15,166 --> 00:20:16,734 going to impose transactions costs on international trade 439 00:20:16,734 --> 00:20:18,300 costs on international trade and international finance, and 440 00:20:18,300 --> 00:20:19,834 and international finance, and therefore we cannot get the 441 00:20:19,834 --> 00:20:22,500 therefore we cannot get the economic integration. So this 442 00:20:22,500 --> 00:20:24,267 economic integration. So this is essentially what I’ve called 443 00:20:24,267 --> 00:20:26,400 is essentially what I’ve called the political tri of the world 444 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,600 the political tri of the world economy a number of years. Um 445 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,533 economy a number of years. Um that uh the notion that um on 446 00:20:32,533 --> 00:20:37,400 that uh the notion that um on that uh there was AA deep um uh 447 00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:39,600 that uh there was AA deep um uh inconsistency your attention uh 448 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:41,167 inconsistency your attention uh between deepening democratic 449 00:20:41,167 --> 00:20:42,800 between deepening democratic accountable to get home and 450 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,200 accountable to get home and deepening economic integration. 451 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,767 deepening economic integration. uh globally um a dilemma that 452 00:20:47,767 --> 00:20:49,933 uh globally um a dilemma that can only be overcome if you 453 00:20:49,933 --> 00:20:52,766 can only be overcome if you will uh by um transcending the 454 00:20:52,766 --> 00:20:54,700 will uh by um transcending the nation’s state um that is that 455 00:20:54,700 --> 00:20:56,166 nation’s state um that is that that moving from the nation’s 456 00:20:56,166 --> 00:20:58,734 that moving from the nation’s state as the primary locals of 457 00:20:58,734 --> 00:20:59,467 state as the primary locals of sovereignty to something that 458 00:20:59,467 --> 00:21:01,034 sovereignty to something that might be more so that that 459 00:21:01,034 --> 00:21:03,834 might be more so that that global. Federalism or in the 460 00:21:03,834 --> 00:21:05,300 global. Federalism or in the case of the European Union and 461 00:21:05,300 --> 00:21:06,734 case of the European Union and perhaps the deepening the 462 00:21:06,734 --> 00:21:08,400 perhaps the deepening the fiscal and political union uh 463 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,066 fiscal and political union uh within uh within Europe, I 464 00:21:11,066 --> 00:21:13,367 within uh within Europe, I think this is real. It’s a it’s 465 00:21:13,367 --> 00:21:15,367 think this is real. It’s a it’s a it’s a theoretical or 466 00:21:15,367 --> 00:21:17,233 a it’s a theoretical or conceptual construct uh but it 467 00:21:17,233 --> 00:21:19,834 conceptual construct uh but it is a real one and I think it 468 00:21:19,834 --> 00:21:21,467 is a real one and I think it bites in everyday life uh in a 469 00:21:21,467 --> 00:21:24,633 bites in everyday life uh in a number of different domains uh 470 00:21:24,633 --> 00:21:27,199 number of different domains uh in trade it bites um in 471 00:21:27,199 --> 00:21:29,533 in trade it bites um in concerns about fair trade and 472 00:21:29,533 --> 00:21:30,533 concerns about fair trade and labor and social models and 473 00:21:30,533 --> 00:21:33,367 labor and social models and race to the bottom. The concern 474 00:21:33,367 --> 00:21:35,833 race to the bottom. The concern about social dumping in foreign 475 00:21:35,833 --> 00:21:37,433 about social dumping in foreign investment it bites over 476 00:21:37,433 --> 00:21:39,833 investment it bites over questions like tax competition 477 00:21:39,833 --> 00:21:41,301 questions like tax competition uh the shift of the tax burden 478 00:21:41,301 --> 00:21:43,334 uh the shift of the tax burden from corporation to labor that 479 00:21:43,334 --> 00:21:47,167 from corporation to labor that has happened um concerns about 480 00:21:47,167 --> 00:21:48,801 has happened um concerns about technological piracy or 481 00:21:48,801 --> 00:21:50,299 technological piracy or undermining of national 482 00:21:50,299 --> 00:21:51,667 undermining of national security to foreign investment 483 00:21:51,667 --> 00:21:53,300 security to foreign investment by companies from China or 484 00:21:53,300 --> 00:21:55,733 by companies from China or elsewhere um in finance of 485 00:21:55,733 --> 00:21:57,533 elsewhere um in finance of course, uh it shows itself in 486 00:21:57,533 --> 00:21:59,300 course, uh it shows itself in financial crisis, the absence 487 00:21:59,300 --> 00:22:01,500 financial crisis, the absence of the global regulator global 488 00:22:01,500 --> 00:22:02,467 of the global regulator global lender of last resort um means 489 00:22:02,467 --> 00:22:05,034 lender of last resort um means that we. More financial crisis 490 00:22:05,034 --> 00:22:07,700 that we. More financial crisis and they’re more costly uh the 491 00:22:07,700 --> 00:22:09,366 and they’re more costly uh the response in the presence of tax 492 00:22:09,366 --> 00:22:11,500 response in the presence of tax savings of course and it in 493 00:22:11,500 --> 00:22:13,699 savings of course and it in migration and labor laws. Uh it 494 00:22:13,699 --> 00:22:16,900 migration and labor laws. Uh it shows up when it is not based 495 00:22:16,900 --> 00:22:18,967 shows up when it is not based exclusively in the kind of uh 496 00:22:18,967 --> 00:22:22,733 exclusively in the kind of uh uh uh. or um uh or in a phobic 497 00:22:22,733 --> 00:22:24,399 uh uh. or um uh or in a phobic attitudes uh when it’s grounded 498 00:22:24,399 --> 00:22:25,867 attitudes uh when it’s grounded on economic concerns, uh it 499 00:22:25,867 --> 00:22:28,367 on economic concerns, uh it shows up uh in concerns about 500 00:22:28,367 --> 00:22:29,067 shows up uh in concerns about things like regulatory 501 00:22:29,067 --> 00:22:31,700 things like regulatory arbitrage and possible adverse 502 00:22:31,700 --> 00:22:33,434 arbitrage and possible adverse impacts on the welfare state of 503 00:22:33,434 --> 00:22:37,434 impacts on the welfare state of having too many uh migrant. 504 00:22:37,434 --> 00:22:39,201 having too many uh migrant. Workers um I think you know the 505 00:22:39,201 --> 00:22:43,433 Workers um I think you know the the the um uh gives us um a bit 506 00:22:43,433 --> 00:22:47,167 the the um uh gives us um a bit of an insight to the to the 507 00:22:47,167 --> 00:22:49,234 of an insight to the to the populous backlash against 508 00:22:49,234 --> 00:22:50,201 populous backlash against globalization, which in some 509 00:22:50,201 --> 00:22:52,800 globalization, which in some ways mirrors the backlash that 510 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:54,233 ways mirrors the backlash that we had against the late 511 00:22:54,233 --> 00:22:55,767 we had against the late nineteenth century, the Gold 512 00:22:55,767 --> 00:22:57,167 nineteenth century, the Gold Standard version of 513 00:22:57,167 --> 00:22:59,700 Standard version of globalization uh that was also 514 00:22:59,700 --> 00:23:03,667 globalization uh that was also um rooted in the uh economic 515 00:23:03,667 --> 00:23:06,166 um rooted in the uh economic anxieties that economic uh 516 00:23:06,166 --> 00:23:08,701 anxieties that economic uh burdens that. Parts of the 517 00:23:08,701 --> 00:23:10,033 burdens that. Parts of the economy we’re facing under the 518 00:23:10,033 --> 00:23:12,299 economy we’re facing under the rules of the Gold Standard, but 519 00:23:12,299 --> 00:23:14,000 rules of the Gold Standard, but under the current version uh 520 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:15,367 under the current version uh when I was talking about uh in 521 00:23:15,367 --> 00:23:19,401 when I was talking about uh in a in some years ago about the 522 00:23:19,401 --> 00:23:22,000 a in some years ago about the uh this this and applied or it 523 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:23,433 uh this this and applied or it might have that applied to 524 00:23:23,433 --> 00:23:25,933 might have that applied to Europe. I remember former 525 00:23:25,933 --> 00:23:28,367 Europe. I remember former finance minister from the euro 526 00:23:28,367 --> 00:23:29,799 finance minister from the euro zone uh standing up and 527 00:23:29,799 --> 00:23:31,800 zone uh standing up and essentially saying well, that’s 528 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:32,899 essentially saying well, that’s the reason the populists are 529 00:23:32,899 --> 00:23:35,200 the reason the populists are winning. uh the populists are 530 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:35,966 winning. uh the populists are winning because they’re the 531 00:23:35,966 --> 00:23:39,333 winning because they’re the only ones. The truth about the 532 00:23:39,333 --> 00:23:41,734 only ones. The truth about the and what does that mean? it 533 00:23:41,734 --> 00:23:44,266 and what does that mean? it means that basically centrist 534 00:23:44,266 --> 00:23:45,800 means that basically centrist political leaders, the 535 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:46,434 political leaders, the political establishment have 536 00:23:46,434 --> 00:23:48,466 political establishment have for a very long time, 537 00:23:48,466 --> 00:23:51,234 for a very long time, essentially uh refused to 538 00:23:51,234 --> 00:23:52,267 essentially uh refused to acknowledge uh these 539 00:23:52,267 --> 00:23:55,367 acknowledge uh these constraints that you could 540 00:23:55,367 --> 00:23:56,866 constraints that you could maintain uh that that you could 541 00:23:56,866 --> 00:23:58,666 maintain uh that that you could eat your cake and have it 542 00:23:58,666 --> 00:23:59,467 eat your cake and have it having to have it too. That is 543 00:23:59,467 --> 00:24:01,967 having to have it too. That is to say that on the one hand uh 544 00:24:01,967 --> 00:24:03,299 to say that on the one hand uh you could maintain your 545 00:24:03,299 --> 00:24:04,767 you could maintain your sovereignty and democracy. On 546 00:24:04,767 --> 00:24:05,566 sovereignty and democracy. On the other hand, you could 547 00:24:05,566 --> 00:24:09,733 the other hand, you could deepen economic. Whereas 548 00:24:09,733 --> 00:24:11,134 deepen economic. Whereas populist have been very clear 549 00:24:11,134 --> 00:24:13,067 populist have been very clear and upfront about their 550 00:24:13,067 --> 00:24:15,400 and upfront about their preference for a national 551 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,300 preference for a national sovereignty now, it turns out 552 00:24:17,300 --> 00:24:20,800 sovereignty now, it turns out that most populist in Europe uh 553 00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,267 that most populist in Europe uh and also um in the American 554 00:24:23,267 --> 00:24:24,867 and also um in the American version this preference for 555 00:24:24,867 --> 00:24:26,700 version this preference for national sovereignty has been 556 00:24:26,700 --> 00:24:28,600 national sovereignty has been matched with a typically 557 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:30,767 matched with a typically natives right-wing 558 00:24:30,767 --> 00:24:32,834 natives right-wing authoritarian uh domestic 559 00:24:32,834 --> 00:24:34,634 authoritarian uh domestic agenda uh but I think it’s 560 00:24:34,634 --> 00:24:36,400 agenda uh but I think it’s entirely possible that it could 561 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,767 entirely possible that it could also be. With a progressive or 562 00:24:39,767 --> 00:24:41,267 also be. With a progressive or inclusive agenda, um as well 563 00:24:41,267 --> 00:24:44,799 inclusive agenda, um as well and I think historically um the 564 00:24:44,799 --> 00:24:46,634 and I think historically um the the American progressive 565 00:24:46,634 --> 00:24:48,899 the American progressive tradition of American populism, 566 00:24:48,899 --> 00:24:50,234 tradition of American populism, which ultimately I think shows 567 00:24:50,234 --> 00:24:52,000 which ultimately I think shows up uh in a different way in the 568 00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,934 up uh in a different way in the new deal of Franklin D who’s in 569 00:24:54,934 --> 00:24:57,267 new deal of Franklin D who’s in the 1930s, it is an example of 570 00:24:57,267 --> 00:24:59,733 the 1930s, it is an example of of a much more progressive 571 00:24:59,733 --> 00:25:03,734 of a much more progressive inclusive um um a reaction uh 572 00:25:03,734 --> 00:25:05,300 inclusive um um a reaction uh to uh to globalization you have 573 00:25:05,300 --> 00:25:07,967 to uh to globalization you have to remember FDR. First thing he 574 00:25:07,967 --> 00:25:09,533 to remember FDR. First thing he does so, of course, take you 575 00:25:09,533 --> 00:25:10,867 does so, of course, take you like to stay out of the goal 576 00:25:10,867 --> 00:25:12,299 like to stay out of the goal Standard so he could have a 577 00:25:12,299 --> 00:25:14,334 Standard so he could have a free hand with managing 578 00:25:14,334 --> 00:25:16,234 free hand with managing domestic monetary policy and 579 00:25:16,234 --> 00:25:19,967 domestic monetary policy and the economy uh at home now uh 580 00:25:19,967 --> 00:25:22,433 the economy uh at home now uh all of this in many, it is is a 581 00:25:22,433 --> 00:25:24,066 all of this in many, it is is a really backward looking uh, but 582 00:25:24,066 --> 00:25:26,267 really backward looking uh, but I think it’s important in terms 583 00:25:26,267 --> 00:25:29,367 I think it’s important in terms of um framing um how we would 584 00:25:29,367 --> 00:25:32,000 of um framing um how we would think uh about a future uh 585 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,467 think uh about a future uh global order. um what I’ve 586 00:25:34,467 --> 00:25:36,133 global order. um what I’ve argued uh is that the kind of 587 00:25:36,133 --> 00:25:38,700 argued uh is that the kind of hyper global. That is marked 588 00:25:38,700 --> 00:25:41,399 hyper global. That is marked the kind of globalization we’ve 589 00:25:41,399 --> 00:25:43,666 the kind of globalization we’ve had since the 1990s um is 590 00:25:43,666 --> 00:25:46,666 had since the 1990s um is actually incompatible with the 591 00:25:46,666 --> 00:25:49,334 actually incompatible with the democratic accountable. uh 592 00:25:49,334 --> 00:25:51,933 democratic accountable. uh because um national sovereignty 593 00:25:51,933 --> 00:25:54,466 because um national sovereignty or what one might call a desire 594 00:25:54,466 --> 00:25:57,233 or what one might call a desire to be different desire to have 595 00:25:57,233 --> 00:25:59,733 to be different desire to have your own regulatory social 596 00:25:59,733 --> 00:26:02,400 your own regulatory social models and industrial models, 597 00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:03,100 models and industrial models, and that might differ from 598 00:26:03,100 --> 00:26:04,801 and that might differ from those from your trade or 599 00:26:04,801 --> 00:26:06,400 those from your trade or finance partners that is 600 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,367 finance partners that is unlikely unlikely to. And 601 00:26:09,367 --> 00:26:11,633 unlikely unlikely to. And here’s here’s here’s where I 602 00:26:11,633 --> 00:26:15,100 here’s here’s here’s where I come uh to to uh underscore 603 00:26:15,100 --> 00:26:16,500 come uh to to uh underscore that, in fact, there are 604 00:26:16,500 --> 00:26:18,834 that, in fact, there are different globalization um and 605 00:26:18,834 --> 00:26:21,733 different globalization um and historically that are at least 606 00:26:21,733 --> 00:26:24,267 historically that are at least um three different kinds of 607 00:26:24,267 --> 00:26:25,766 um three different kinds of globalization that that we have 608 00:26:25,766 --> 00:26:26,799 globalization that that we have experienced I’ve already 609 00:26:26,799 --> 00:26:29,334 experienced I’ve already mentioned uh the gold standard. 610 00:26:29,334 --> 00:26:32,334 mentioned uh the gold standard. um I’ve mentioned um the post 611 00:26:32,334 --> 00:26:33,900 um I’ve mentioned um the post 1990 model of hyper 612 00:26:33,900 --> 00:26:34,900 1990 model of hyper globalization. uh the one that 613 00:26:34,900 --> 00:26:36,634 globalization. uh the one that I did not mention and I think 614 00:26:36,634 --> 00:26:37,966 I did not mention and I think it’s very important because 615 00:26:37,966 --> 00:26:39,899 it’s very important because that’s where I want to end my 616 00:26:39,899 --> 00:26:41,400 that’s where I want to end my remarks really as I pointed to 617 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:44,267 remarks really as I pointed to the future is what my. Sort of 618 00:26:44,267 --> 00:26:47,466 the future is what my. Sort of the regime uh the globalization 619 00:26:47,466 --> 00:26:50,166 the regime uh the globalization that we had, let’s say between 620 00:26:50,166 --> 00:26:51,267 that we had, let’s say between 1945 and I would actually 621 00:26:51,267 --> 00:26:54,133 1945 and I would actually extend the regime into the 622 00:26:54,133 --> 00:26:56,500 extend the regime into the props to the end of the 1980s. 623 00:26:56,500 --> 00:26:58,866 props to the end of the 1980s. uh although very specific 624 00:26:58,866 --> 00:27:00,000 uh although very specific currency arrangements already 625 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,100 currency arrangements already at collapsed by the late 70s 626 00:27:03,100 --> 00:27:05,133 at collapsed by the late 70s now as as I’ve indicated here 627 00:27:05,133 --> 00:27:06,767 now as as I’ve indicated here and as I’ve I’ve I’ve I think 628 00:27:06,767 --> 00:27:08,767 and as I’ve I’ve I’ve I think made clear in my comments that 629 00:27:08,767 --> 00:27:11,166 made clear in my comments that one respect in which the post 630 00:27:11,166 --> 00:27:13,800 one respect in which the post ninety hyper globalization was 631 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:15,267 ninety hyper globalization was similar to the gold standard. 632 00:27:15,267 --> 00:27:18,366 similar to the gold standard. Uh is that. The rules of the 633 00:27:18,366 --> 00:27:20,833 Uh is that. The rules of the global market reached much more 634 00:27:20,833 --> 00:27:22,266 global market reached much more behind the borders at the 635 00:27:22,266 --> 00:27:24,934 behind the borders at the global rules uh that 636 00:27:24,934 --> 00:27:27,401 global rules uh that essentially prevented uh 637 00:27:27,401 --> 00:27:29,933 essentially prevented uh domestic policy makers from 638 00:27:29,933 --> 00:27:30,366 domestic policy makers from doing certain things and 639 00:27:30,366 --> 00:27:32,466 doing certain things and responding adequately to 640 00:27:32,466 --> 00:27:33,366 responding adequately to domestic stakeholders. And 641 00:27:33,366 --> 00:27:35,533 domestic stakeholders. And that, of course is the primary 642 00:27:35,533 --> 00:27:38,267 that, of course is the primary uh um uh uh complaint about the 643 00:27:38,267 --> 00:27:41,699 uh um uh uh complaint about the post 1990 hyper globalization 644 00:27:41,699 --> 00:27:44,400 post 1990 hyper globalization as well, um the bread and woods 645 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,767 as well, um the bread and woods regime. By contrast, uh is the 646 00:27:46,767 --> 00:27:50,834 regime. By contrast, uh is the one that um was. Did not make 647 00:27:50,834 --> 00:27:52,000 one that um was. Did not make such demands on domestic 648 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,967 such demands on domestic violence autonomy uh it did not 649 00:27:54,967 --> 00:27:57,133 violence autonomy uh it did not the rules the global rules uh 650 00:27:57,133 --> 00:28:00,666 the rules the global rules uh in shrine with under the gat 651 00:28:00,666 --> 00:28:03,700 in shrine with under the gat regime uh or under the IMF. Um 652 00:28:03,700 --> 00:28:06,234 regime uh or under the IMF. Um we’re relatively thin set of 653 00:28:06,234 --> 00:28:10,400 we’re relatively thin set of rules that were restricted to 654 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,266 rules that were restricted to um to uh um barriers at the 655 00:28:13,266 --> 00:28:14,766 um to uh um barriers at the border quantity the 656 00:28:14,766 --> 00:28:16,801 border quantity the restrictions or imports and 657 00:28:16,801 --> 00:28:18,667 restrictions or imports and with respect to macroeconomic 658 00:28:18,667 --> 00:28:19,967 with respect to macroeconomic and financial management, uh 659 00:28:19,967 --> 00:28:22,400 and financial management, uh left a lot of room for domestic 660 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:23,700 left a lot of room for domestic economic policy makers, capital 661 00:28:23,700 --> 00:28:26,834 economic policy makers, capital controls After all, we’re. Uh 662 00:28:26,834 --> 00:28:28,833 controls After all, we’re. Uh according to cans himself back 663 00:28:28,833 --> 00:28:31,200 according to cans himself back in 1944, a permanent feature of 664 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,299 in 1944, a permanent feature of the re was regime, so it would 665 00:28:33,299 --> 00:28:37,400 the re was regime, so it would leave room for the domestic uh 666 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:38,201 leave room for the domestic uh macroeconomic management of 667 00:28:38,201 --> 00:28:40,667 macroeconomic management of domestic monetary and fiscal 668 00:28:40,667 --> 00:28:42,900 domestic monetary and fiscal authorities Um now you might 669 00:28:42,900 --> 00:28:44,699 authorities Um now you might look at the Bretton Woods and 670 00:28:44,699 --> 00:28:46,767 look at the Bretton Woods and say well, you know compared to 671 00:28:46,767 --> 00:28:48,634 say well, you know compared to the Gold Standard and the post 672 00:28:48,634 --> 00:28:50,633 the Gold Standard and the post 1990 model of globalization, 673 00:28:50,633 --> 00:28:52,867 1990 model of globalization, Maybe maybe you might say that 674 00:28:52,867 --> 00:28:54,900 Maybe maybe you might say that was such a shallow model of 675 00:28:54,900 --> 00:28:55,733 was such a shallow model of globalization that we’re so 676 00:28:55,733 --> 00:28:56,967 globalization that we’re so thin rules that we may not even 677 00:28:56,967 --> 00:29:00,233 thin rules that we may not even wanna. Globalization, but the 678 00:29:00,233 --> 00:29:01,801 wanna. Globalization, but the fact is that in terms of where 679 00:29:01,801 --> 00:29:05,133 fact is that in terms of where it to the woods. uh was in 680 00:29:05,133 --> 00:29:08,400 it to the woods. uh was in fact, uh extraordinarily 681 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:09,900 fact, uh extraordinarily successful uh not just in terms 682 00:29:09,900 --> 00:29:12,500 successful uh not just in terms of raising incomes around the 683 00:29:12,500 --> 00:29:13,967 of raising incomes around the world, but in terms of actually 684 00:29:13,967 --> 00:29:16,599 world, but in terms of actually in terms of the volumes of 685 00:29:16,599 --> 00:29:17,700 in terms of the volumes of long-term, investment and 686 00:29:17,700 --> 00:29:19,400 long-term, investment and volumes of well trade. so here 687 00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,666 volumes of well trade. so here I have just three indicators. 688 00:29:21,666 --> 00:29:24,234 I have just three indicators. one is the volume of trade and 689 00:29:24,234 --> 00:29:28,533 one is the volume of trade and I compare um the period. 1950 690 00:29:28,533 --> 00:29:30,834 I compare um the period. 1950 to nineteen um the Bretton 691 00:29:30,834 --> 00:29:32,867 to nineteen um the Bretton Woods regime taking out the 692 00:29:32,867 --> 00:29:35,000 Woods regime taking out the first 5 years after the second 693 00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:36,400 first 5 years after the second World War because I don’t want 694 00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:37,800 World War because I don’t want these growth rates to be 695 00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:39,633 these growth rates to be influenced by the initial 696 00:29:39,633 --> 00:29:41,166 influenced by the initial bounce back from the end of the 697 00:29:41,166 --> 00:29:43,067 bounce back from the end of the World War, But even if we do 698 00:29:43,067 --> 00:29:44,734 World War, But even if we do that we can see in the in the 699 00:29:44,734 --> 00:29:46,734 that we can see in the in the context of the world trade, for 700 00:29:46,734 --> 00:29:48,266 context of the world trade, for example, that uh somewhat 701 00:29:48,266 --> 00:29:49,799 example, that uh somewhat surprisingly perhaps world 702 00:29:49,799 --> 00:29:52,233 surprisingly perhaps world trade expanded much more 703 00:29:52,233 --> 00:29:53,166 trade expanded much more rapidly under the red Woods uh 704 00:29:53,166 --> 00:29:55,833 rapidly under the red Woods uh than it did in the post ninety 705 00:29:55,833 --> 00:29:59,000 than it did in the post ninety hyper globalization model. GDP 706 00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:00,433 hyper globalization model. GDP on the whole was sort of 707 00:30:00,433 --> 00:30:01,300 on the whole was sort of performance. what’s similar, 708 00:30:01,300 --> 00:30:03,000 performance. what’s similar, what we look at some of the key 709 00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:04,267 what we look at some of the key countries in the world, many 710 00:30:04,267 --> 00:30:05,733 countries in the world, many most European countries 711 00:30:05,733 --> 00:30:07,234 most European countries actually and and and and many 712 00:30:07,234 --> 00:30:09,467 actually and and and and many developing countries here you 713 00:30:09,467 --> 00:30:11,199 developing countries here you know my indicator for European 714 00:30:11,199 --> 00:30:13,300 know my indicator for European countries, France it would not 715 00:30:13,300 --> 00:30:15,333 countries, France it would not have been very different. uh if 716 00:30:15,333 --> 00:30:17,300 have been very different. uh if I’d included Belgium instead of 717 00:30:17,300 --> 00:30:18,000 I’d included Belgium instead of France, but the point was that 718 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,334 France, but the point was that there was no growth rates were 719 00:30:20,334 --> 00:30:23,334 there was no growth rates were in fact higher under that early 720 00:30:23,334 --> 00:30:25,800 in fact higher under that early regime. now, this is a paradox 721 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,867 regime. now, this is a paradox of only. Professionally to 722 00:30:28,867 --> 00:30:30,767 of only. Professionally to paradox, it’s superficial 723 00:30:30,767 --> 00:30:32,934 paradox, it’s superficial paradox being that both incomes 724 00:30:32,934 --> 00:30:34,833 paradox being that both incomes and globalization levels might 725 00:30:34,833 --> 00:30:36,900 and globalization levels might have advanced more rapidly 726 00:30:36,900 --> 00:30:39,634 have advanced more rapidly under a less restrictive, you 727 00:30:39,634 --> 00:30:40,801 under a less restrictive, you know, sort of globalization or 728 00:30:40,801 --> 00:30:44,167 know, sort of globalization or or less deep uh globalization 729 00:30:44,167 --> 00:30:45,866 or less deep uh globalization regime, but I think I interpret 730 00:30:45,866 --> 00:30:48,799 regime, but I think I interpret this as essentially um as 731 00:30:48,799 --> 00:30:52,533 this as essentially um as vindication of the idea that a 732 00:30:52,533 --> 00:30:54,367 vindication of the idea that a song globalization has to leave 733 00:30:54,367 --> 00:30:55,967 song globalization has to leave enough room for domestic 734 00:30:55,967 --> 00:30:59,299 enough room for domestic economic. And domestic uh 735 00:30:59,299 --> 00:31:01,966 economic. And domestic uh bargains to be struck for uh 736 00:31:01,966 --> 00:31:04,301 bargains to be struck for uh between different social 737 00:31:04,301 --> 00:31:06,566 between different social partners uh that allow some of 738 00:31:06,566 --> 00:31:08,833 partners uh that allow some of inclusive prosperity uh with an 739 00:31:08,833 --> 00:31:10,166 inclusive prosperity uh with an individual countries, and then 740 00:31:10,166 --> 00:31:11,367 individual countries, and then if you allow that inclusive 741 00:31:11,367 --> 00:31:14,433 if you allow that inclusive prosperity um uh to proceed and 742 00:31:14,433 --> 00:31:16,567 prosperity um uh to proceed and countries in fact, are more 743 00:31:16,567 --> 00:31:17,967 countries in fact, are more likely to welcome trade and 744 00:31:17,967 --> 00:31:19,367 likely to welcome trade and investment because they have 745 00:31:19,367 --> 00:31:21,967 investment because they have less to fear from the economic 746 00:31:21,967 --> 00:31:24,000 less to fear from the economic anxieties that integrations to 747 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:28,134 anxieties that integrations to market might create. So. It’s 748 00:31:28,134 --> 00:31:30,367 market might create. So. It’s what that means I think for the 749 00:31:30,367 --> 00:31:32,733 what that means I think for the future of my preferred future 750 00:31:32,733 --> 00:31:35,267 future of my preferred future globalization. uh is that no I 751 00:31:35,267 --> 00:31:37,200 globalization. uh is that no I believe we need to return to 752 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,933 believe we need to return to the spirit. uh if not the 753 00:31:39,933 --> 00:31:42,400 the spirit. uh if not the actual practices um of the 754 00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:43,701 actual practices um of the Bretton Woods period, so I 755 00:31:43,701 --> 00:31:46,466 Bretton Woods period, so I don’t mean less return to you 756 00:31:46,466 --> 00:31:48,634 don’t mean less return to you know necessarily widespread 757 00:31:48,634 --> 00:31:50,333 know necessarily widespread capital controls. Let’s return 758 00:31:50,333 --> 00:31:51,967 capital controls. Let’s return to fix exchange rates and less 759 00:31:51,967 --> 00:31:55,100 to fix exchange rates and less return back to widespread 760 00:31:55,100 --> 00:31:57,800 return back to widespread restrictions um but I. That we 761 00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,299 restrictions um but I. That we need to return to a kind of a 762 00:32:00,299 --> 00:32:02,234 need to return to a kind of a thinner model of globalization 763 00:32:02,234 --> 00:32:04,933 thinner model of globalization that’s going to be also more 764 00:32:04,933 --> 00:32:06,400 that’s going to be also more sustainable that’s going to 765 00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,134 sustainable that’s going to require a new traffic rules for 766 00:32:09,134 --> 00:32:11,167 require a new traffic rules for the world economy in general 767 00:32:11,167 --> 00:32:12,933 the world economy in general much greater policy space for 768 00:32:12,933 --> 00:32:15,367 much greater policy space for both uh developing developing 769 00:32:15,367 --> 00:32:16,801 both uh developing developing nations and uh and a 770 00:32:16,801 --> 00:32:18,800 nations and uh and a recognition and acknowledgement 771 00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:20,200 recognition and acknowledgement that regulatory diversity, 772 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:21,667 that regulatory diversity, whether it’s in subsidies and 773 00:32:21,667 --> 00:32:23,167 whether it’s in subsidies and industrial policy intellectual 774 00:32:23,167 --> 00:32:25,800 industrial policy intellectual property areas Sanitary 775 00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:27,633 property areas Sanitary standards, Product regulations, 776 00:32:27,633 --> 00:32:29,034 standards, Product regulations, financial regulations that 777 00:32:29,034 --> 00:32:31,267 financial regulations that regulatory. Is for the most 778 00:32:31,267 --> 00:32:33,734 regulatory. Is for the most part, the good thing that we 779 00:32:33,734 --> 00:32:35,567 part, the good thing that we need to trade off the gains 780 00:32:35,567 --> 00:32:38,933 need to trade off the gains from trade that we get from 781 00:32:38,933 --> 00:32:40,367 from trade that we get from eliminating regulatory 782 00:32:40,367 --> 00:32:42,899 eliminating regulatory diversity and establishing real 783 00:32:42,899 --> 00:32:44,233 diversity and establishing real harmonization against the 784 00:32:44,233 --> 00:32:46,000 harmonization against the losses from uh giving up on 785 00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:47,266 losses from uh giving up on regulatory diversity and being 786 00:32:47,266 --> 00:32:50,667 regulatory diversity and being more responsive. uh to um to to 787 00:32:50,667 --> 00:32:53,967 more responsive. uh to um to to to national um uh demands I 788 00:32:53,967 --> 00:32:54,933 to national um uh demands I think what that means we 789 00:32:54,933 --> 00:32:56,333 think what that means we developed countries advanced 790 00:32:56,333 --> 00:32:57,967 developed countries advanced countries in particular is that 791 00:32:57,967 --> 00:33:01,067 countries in particular is that we need. That’s going to give 792 00:33:01,067 --> 00:33:04,266 we need. That’s going to give priority to reconstitute social 793 00:33:04,266 --> 00:33:05,800 priority to reconstitute social contracts at home um that’s 794 00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,233 contracts at home um that’s going to require a variety of 795 00:33:08,233 --> 00:33:09,767 going to require a variety of policies and tax regimes and 796 00:33:09,767 --> 00:33:11,400 policies and tax regimes and social policies in environment 797 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:13,666 social policies in environment and innovation, regimes and the 798 00:33:13,666 --> 00:33:16,467 and innovation, regimes and the labor markets uh to support um 799 00:33:16,467 --> 00:33:17,767 labor markets uh to support um in a green and what what I 800 00:33:17,767 --> 00:33:19,467 in a green and what what I would call a good jobs economy. 801 00:33:19,467 --> 00:33:21,267 would call a good jobs economy. I think the the the troubled 802 00:33:21,267 --> 00:33:23,299 I think the the the troubled many of our political and 803 00:33:23,299 --> 00:33:25,767 many of our political and social troubles they originate 804 00:33:25,767 --> 00:33:28,800 social troubles they originate from the middle class quiz from 805 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:30,000 from the middle class quiz from the disappearance of good jobs 806 00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,734 the disappearance of good jobs and kind of labor market. Um 807 00:33:32,734 --> 00:33:35,133 and kind of labor market. Um and that’s going to require a 808 00:33:35,133 --> 00:33:37,401 and that’s going to require a largely domestic policy agenda. 809 00:33:37,401 --> 00:33:39,800 largely domestic policy agenda. um I think what international 810 00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,299 um I think what international financial rules can do here is 811 00:33:41,299 --> 00:33:43,766 financial rules can do here is rather limited except for 812 00:33:43,766 --> 00:33:45,234 rather limited except for providing room uh for those 813 00:33:45,234 --> 00:33:47,267 providing room uh for those policies to be implemented and 814 00:33:47,267 --> 00:33:50,266 policies to be implemented and I think um the rule the 815 00:33:50,266 --> 00:33:52,699 I think um the rule the domestic trade and financial 816 00:33:52,699 --> 00:33:55,266 domestic trade and financial rules uh or to provide 817 00:33:55,266 --> 00:33:57,133 rules uh or to provide protection for the home economy 818 00:33:57,133 --> 00:33:59,500 protection for the home economy only to the extent that it is 819 00:33:59,500 --> 00:34:01,467 only to the extent that it is necessary to prevent regulatory 820 00:34:01,467 --> 00:34:03,634 necessary to prevent regulatory arbitrage that would undermine 821 00:34:03,634 --> 00:34:05,567 arbitrage that would undermine uh those domestic institutional 822 00:34:05,567 --> 00:34:07,067 uh those domestic institutional and regulatory choices. so that 823 00:34:07,067 --> 00:34:11,266 and regulatory choices. so that might. For example, uh domestic 824 00:34:11,266 --> 00:34:13,401 might. For example, uh domestic trade policies that provide 825 00:34:13,401 --> 00:34:15,367 trade policies that provide room against or provide a 826 00:34:15,367 --> 00:34:17,399 room against or provide a protection against uh social 827 00:34:17,399 --> 00:34:19,467 protection against uh social dumping uh for countries that 828 00:34:19,467 --> 00:34:21,667 dumping uh for countries that are greening up and theorizing 829 00:34:21,667 --> 00:34:23,700 are greening up and theorizing their economies uh carbon 830 00:34:23,700 --> 00:34:25,266 their economies uh carbon border taxes again for the 831 00:34:25,266 --> 00:34:27,933 border taxes again for the purpose of ensuring domestic 832 00:34:27,933 --> 00:34:30,400 purpose of ensuring domestic policies are not undermined a 833 00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:31,934 policies are not undermined a management of capital flows to 834 00:34:31,934 --> 00:34:33,533 management of capital flows to the extended to those undermine 835 00:34:33,533 --> 00:34:37,200 the extended to those undermine and complicate macroeconomic 836 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:39,234 and complicate macroeconomic policies restrictions on. For 837 00:34:39,234 --> 00:34:40,133 policies restrictions on. For an investment party with regard 838 00:34:40,133 --> 00:34:43,266 an investment party with regard to China when national security 839 00:34:43,266 --> 00:34:46,333 to China when national security considerations um are uh become 840 00:34:46,333 --> 00:34:47,767 considerations um are uh become paramount, but the point is 841 00:34:47,767 --> 00:34:49,867 paramount, but the point is that such protections would be 842 00:34:49,867 --> 00:34:51,933 that such protections would be in in the service of a domestic 843 00:34:51,933 --> 00:34:54,300 in in the service of a domestic economic agenda. Uh it’s only 844 00:34:54,300 --> 00:34:56,701 economic agenda. Uh it’s only when there is a sound to hear 845 00:34:56,701 --> 00:35:00,700 when there is a sound to hear in domestic um uh uh agenda uh 846 00:35:00,700 --> 00:35:03,201 in domestic um uh uh agenda uh that it’s worth protecting them 847 00:35:03,201 --> 00:35:04,801 that it’s worth protecting them through this border kinds of 848 00:35:04,801 --> 00:35:05,767 through this border kinds of policies, but it’s it’s it’s 849 00:35:05,767 --> 00:35:07,566 policies, but it’s it’s it’s it’s important to put the 850 00:35:07,566 --> 00:35:09,634 it’s important to put the priorities on what we need to 851 00:35:09,634 --> 00:35:11,833 priorities on what we need to do at home and to think about 852 00:35:11,833 --> 00:35:13,467 do at home and to think about our external policies as being 853 00:35:13,467 --> 00:35:15,933 our external policies as being an adjunct. Uh what we need to 854 00:35:15,933 --> 00:35:17,967 an adjunct. Uh what we need to do at home as opposed to what I 855 00:35:17,967 --> 00:35:19,766 do at home as opposed to what I think has been the defining 856 00:35:19,766 --> 00:35:20,433 think has been the defining feature of policies that will 857 00:35:20,433 --> 00:35:23,701 feature of policies that will last 40 years uh which is 858 00:35:23,701 --> 00:35:24,767 last 40 years uh which is essentially how can what is it 859 00:35:24,767 --> 00:35:26,500 essentially how can what is it that we need to do at home in 860 00:35:26,500 --> 00:35:29,734 that we need to do at home in order to maintain openness or 861 00:35:29,734 --> 00:35:31,900 order to maintain openness or be better competitors uh uh 862 00:35:31,900 --> 00:35:34,200 be better competitors uh uh globally um I think the final 863 00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:35,833 globally um I think the final thing I wanna say is we treat 864 00:35:35,833 --> 00:35:38,267 thing I wanna say is we treat with regard to China because I 865 00:35:38,267 --> 00:35:41,700 with regard to China because I think China is going to be the 866 00:35:41,700 --> 00:35:44,200 think China is going to be the key issue um going forward um 867 00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:48,166 key issue um going forward um and I think. 868 00:35:48,334 --> 00:35:53,167 Uh what we have learned is that 869 00:35:53,167 --> 00:35:55,399 Uh what we have learned is that China is perhaps the most 870 00:35:55,399 --> 00:35:58,767 China is perhaps the most extreme example of the in 871 00:35:58,767 --> 00:36:01,400 extreme example of the in feasibility of a model of deep 872 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,567 feasibility of a model of deep integration um and so we’re you 873 00:36:03,567 --> 00:36:04,634 integration um and so we’re you know, we’re not going to be 874 00:36:04,634 --> 00:36:06,966 know, we’re not going to be able to go back to a model uh 875 00:36:06,966 --> 00:36:10,666 able to go back to a model uh where we can expect uh China to 876 00:36:10,666 --> 00:36:13,299 where we can expect uh China to comply with the kinds of um WT 877 00:36:13,299 --> 00:36:15,733 comply with the kinds of um WT to your norms uh that uh you 878 00:36:15,733 --> 00:36:17,299 to your norms uh that uh you know we thought I think 879 00:36:17,299 --> 00:36:20,200 know we thought I think misleading that China would. I 880 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:23,066 misleading that China would. I think that presumes a change in 881 00:36:23,066 --> 00:36:24,399 think that presumes a change in the Chinese economic system 882 00:36:24,399 --> 00:36:25,633 the Chinese economic system that’s simply not going to 883 00:36:25,633 --> 00:36:27,667 that’s simply not going to happen and given that we’re 884 00:36:27,667 --> 00:36:28,700 happen and given that we’re talking about the economy. that 885 00:36:28,700 --> 00:36:31,166 talking about the economy. that is uh that has engineered the 886 00:36:31,166 --> 00:36:32,667 is uh that has engineered the most remarkable poverty 887 00:36:32,667 --> 00:36:34,767 most remarkable poverty reduction experience in 888 00:36:34,767 --> 00:36:35,700 reduction experience in economic history. I think we 889 00:36:35,700 --> 00:36:36,934 economic history. I think we should cut them some slack 890 00:36:36,934 --> 00:36:39,233 should cut them some slack about the kind of economic 891 00:36:39,233 --> 00:36:41,066 about the kind of economic regime or system that they want 892 00:36:41,066 --> 00:36:43,666 regime or system that they want uh at the same time I think uh 893 00:36:43,666 --> 00:36:45,867 uh at the same time I think uh you know the coupling uh is is 894 00:36:45,867 --> 00:36:47,300 you know the coupling uh is is is not desirable. I think that 895 00:36:47,300 --> 00:36:51,067 is not desirable. I think that would come at. 896 00:37:20,767 --> 00:37:22,367 It’s only industrial and 897 00:37:22,367 --> 00:37:23,966 It’s only industrial and intellectual property and state 898 00:37:23,966 --> 00:37:26,199 intellectual property and state owned enterprise policies uh 899 00:37:26,199 --> 00:37:27,767 owned enterprise policies uh while Europe and the United 900 00:37:27,767 --> 00:37:29,566 while Europe and the United States remain free to uphold 901 00:37:29,566 --> 00:37:31,867 States remain free to uphold their social standards and and 902 00:37:31,867 --> 00:37:33,167 their social standards and and innovation systems, I think a 903 00:37:33,167 --> 00:37:35,167 innovation systems, I think a system like that was still 904 00:37:35,167 --> 00:37:36,000 system like that was still allow reaping the bulk of the 905 00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:38,334 allow reaping the bulk of the gains from trade while ensuring 906 00:37:38,334 --> 00:37:40,600 gains from trade while ensuring that both of countries have the 907 00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:42,301 that both of countries have the space to maintain this thing 908 00:37:42,301 --> 00:37:43,967 space to maintain this thing and distinct economic systems. 909 00:37:43,967 --> 00:37:45,533 and distinct economic systems. I think that was largely the 910 00:37:45,533 --> 00:37:48,133 I think that was largely the spirit of the God uh regime it 911 00:37:48,133 --> 00:37:49,567 spirit of the God uh regime it was larger than the spirit of 912 00:37:49,567 --> 00:37:51,133 was larger than the spirit of the three or four decade. After 913 00:37:51,133 --> 00:37:53,300 the three or four decade. After the second World war and I 914 00:37:53,300 --> 00:37:56,367 the second World war and I think um that’s where um a kind 915 00:37:56,367 --> 00:37:58,934 think um that’s where um a kind of in my view a desirable 916 00:37:58,934 --> 00:38:00,234 of in my view a desirable direction for the future of 917 00:38:00,234 --> 00:38:03,800 direction for the future of globalization uh would be um I 918 00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:05,600 globalization uh would be um I think that’s clearly not the 919 00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,899 think that’s clearly not the only path and that we can see 920 00:38:07,899 --> 00:38:10,933 only path and that we can see um uh many disaster response 921 00:38:10,933 --> 00:38:13,700 um uh many disaster response and I think um uh you know sort 922 00:38:13,700 --> 00:38:15,766 and I think um uh you know sort of a mindless uh attempt to 923 00:38:15,766 --> 00:38:18,333 of a mindless uh attempt to Deco as the the Trump 924 00:38:18,333 --> 00:38:19,200 Deco as the the Trump administration has been 925 00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:21,567 administration has been pursuing. um I think it is is 926 00:38:21,567 --> 00:38:25,666 pursuing. um I think it is is quite um uh uh. Dangerous uh 927 00:38:25,666 --> 00:38:27,199 quite um uh uh. Dangerous uh but I think it’s also the 928 00:38:27,199 --> 00:38:29,167 but I think it’s also the presumption that we could 929 00:38:29,167 --> 00:38:32,699 presumption that we could return uh to uh a kind of um 930 00:38:32,699 --> 00:38:34,600 return uh to uh a kind of um post 1990 hyper globalization 931 00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,800 post 1990 hyper globalization model. I think it’s also uh 932 00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,267 model. I think it’s also uh going to very likely backfire 933 00:38:39,267 --> 00:38:41,199 going to very likely backfire as well. and so the point is 934 00:38:41,199 --> 00:38:43,400 as well. and so the point is not to give up on 935 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:43,967 not to give up on globalization. I think the 936 00:38:43,967 --> 00:38:47,133 globalization. I think the point is to you know erected on 937 00:38:47,133 --> 00:38:50,167 point is to you know erected on on on sounder um principles 938 00:38:50,167 --> 00:38:51,967 on on sounder um principles recognizing that we’re living 939 00:38:51,967 --> 00:38:54,234 recognizing that we’re living in a world with very diverse 940 00:38:54,234 --> 00:38:55,633 in a world with very diverse economic systems and economic 941 00:38:55,633 --> 00:38:57,167 economic systems and economic regimes and diverse 942 00:38:57,167 --> 00:38:59,366 regimes and diverse understanding. Of you know 943 00:38:59,366 --> 00:39:01,267 understanding. Of you know social models um and I think 944 00:39:01,267 --> 00:39:03,533 social models um and I think that’s going to uh it is going 945 00:39:03,533 --> 00:39:06,000 that’s going to uh it is going to require putting some sand in 946 00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:07,467 to require putting some sand in the wheels of not just 947 00:39:07,467 --> 00:39:09,400 the wheels of not just international finance but often 948 00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:10,733 international finance but often international trade and global 949 00:39:10,733 --> 00:39:12,267 international trade and global supply chain as well. and I 950 00:39:12,267 --> 00:39:13,699 supply chain as well. and I think that if we recognize that 951 00:39:13,699 --> 00:39:15,667 think that if we recognize that we can build around it uh 952 00:39:15,667 --> 00:39:19,067 we can build around it uh rather than acting um like um 953 00:39:19,067 --> 00:39:20,634 rather than acting um like um it’s it’s it’s a it’s a 954 00:39:20,634 --> 00:39:21,767 it’s it’s it’s a it’s a complete aberration and 955 00:39:21,767 --> 00:39:23,267 complete aberration and therefore recognizing that 956 00:39:23,267 --> 00:39:25,767 therefore recognizing that reality. so let me just um I’ll 957 00:39:25,767 --> 00:39:27,667 reality. so let me just um I’ll I’ll I’ll I’ll I’ll stop here 958 00:39:27,667 --> 00:39:32,434 I’ll I’ll I’ll I’ll stop here um try to. Um, Get it get rid 959 00:39:32,434 --> 00:39:39,000 um try to. Um, Get it get rid of my screen. 960 00:39:41,366 --> 00:39:45,767 And it will get at this point. 961 00:39:45,767 --> 00:39:49,400 And it will get at this point. Thank you uh thank you Danny 962 00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:52,367 Thank you uh thank you Danny for a very uh very uh very rich 963 00:39:52,367 --> 00:39:56,167 for a very uh very uh very rich and very interesting uh 964 00:39:56,167 --> 00:39:59,200 and very interesting uh presentation uh the audience 965 00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:02,667 presentation uh the audience should be able to see by now uh 966 00:40:02,667 --> 00:40:05,300 should be able to see by now uh the questions on the one 967 00:40:05,300 --> 00:40:06,633 the questions on the one question on which they are 968 00:40:06,633 --> 00:40:11,334 question on which they are being asked to uh to vote and 969 00:40:11,334 --> 00:40:14,833 being asked to uh to vote and essentially about whether uh 970 00:40:14,833 --> 00:40:17,334 essentially about whether uh globalization is as a future uh 971 00:40:17,334 --> 00:40:18,967 globalization is as a future uh or not or whether it’s uh it’s 972 00:40:18,967 --> 00:40:22,366 or not or whether it’s uh it’s doomed. We have received a 973 00:40:22,366 --> 00:40:24,834 doomed. We have received a number of questions uh some 974 00:40:24,834 --> 00:40:28,800 number of questions uh some many interesting uh questions 975 00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,833 many interesting uh questions uh and before I get to the uh 976 00:40:31,833 --> 00:40:35,667 uh and before I get to the uh to the questions from uh from 977 00:40:35,667 --> 00:40:39,800 to the questions from uh from the audience uh let me uh let 978 00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:41,366 the audience uh let me uh let me make some uh some comments 979 00:40:41,366 --> 00:40:45,034 me make some uh some comments if I may uh I would say on on 980 00:40:45,034 --> 00:40:46,566 if I may uh I would say on on the whole it’s hard to uh it’s 981 00:40:46,566 --> 00:40:51,967 the whole it’s hard to uh it’s hard to disagree with the. Um I 982 00:40:51,967 --> 00:40:55,800 hard to disagree with the. Um I think the spirit of the 983 00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:57,299 think the spirit of the presentation uh is very much 984 00:40:57,299 --> 00:41:00,834 presentation uh is very much one that I that I share um so 985 00:41:00,834 --> 00:41:03,801 one that I that I share um so the goals uh that Danny is 986 00:41:03,801 --> 00:41:06,867 the goals uh that Danny is trying to achieve uh that is to 987 00:41:06,867 --> 00:41:10,633 trying to achieve uh that is to keep globalization but uh 988 00:41:10,633 --> 00:41:13,100 keep globalization but uh reduce uh to make globalization 989 00:41:13,100 --> 00:41:15,967 reduce uh to make globalization in a sense feasible for a world 990 00:41:15,967 --> 00:41:17,967 in a sense feasible for a world with this change quite a bit 991 00:41:17,967 --> 00:41:21,299 with this change quite a bit uh. Uh it was the case 3040 992 00:41:21,299 --> 00:41:22,933 uh. Uh it was the case 3040 years ago, so we can’t go back 993 00:41:22,933 --> 00:41:26,667 years ago, so we can’t go back up to to the era of uh of 994 00:41:26,667 --> 00:41:28,434 up to to the era of uh of Britain Woods uh the world has 995 00:41:28,434 --> 00:41:30,767 Britain Woods uh the world has changed too much for instance, 996 00:41:30,767 --> 00:41:33,300 changed too much for instance, China uh there was no China 997 00:41:33,300 --> 00:41:35,767 China uh there was no China then uh there was no you know 998 00:41:35,767 --> 00:41:36,667 then uh there was no you know uh there was basically no India 999 00:41:36,667 --> 00:41:40,000 uh there was basically no India as well. Uh so more than half 1000 00:41:40,000 --> 00:41:42,400 as well. Uh so more than half of the world was out of the 1001 00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:43,200 of the world was out of the picture. so we’re in a 1002 00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:45,400 picture. so we’re in a different world, but yes we 1003 00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:47,667 different world, but yes we would like to keep uh some of 1004 00:41:47,667 --> 00:41:49,301 would like to keep uh some of the features of some of the 1005 00:41:49,301 --> 00:41:50,733 the features of some of the outcomes that we had in that 1006 00:41:50,733 --> 00:41:52,667 outcomes that we had in that sort of golden age. age uh 1007 00:41:52,667 --> 00:41:55,000 sort of golden age. age uh after the world. To and during 1008 00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:58,801 after the world. To and during the uh during the period and 1009 00:41:58,801 --> 00:41:59,533 the uh during the period and let me just sort of say you 1010 00:41:59,533 --> 00:42:04,400 let me just sort of say you know what is it? I get uh from 1011 00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:06,767 know what is it? I get uh from the historical experience and 1012 00:42:06,767 --> 00:42:08,299 the historical experience and how does that relate to the to 1013 00:42:08,299 --> 00:42:11,167 how does that relate to the to the to the presentation and 1014 00:42:11,167 --> 00:42:12,667 the to the presentation and because then you spoke a lot 1015 00:42:12,667 --> 00:42:15,134 because then you spoke a lot about the 1930s Roosevelt 1016 00:42:15,134 --> 00:42:17,333 about the 1930s Roosevelt obviously a World War two, and 1017 00:42:17,333 --> 00:42:20,333 obviously a World War two, and then what was built by cans and 1018 00:42:20,333 --> 00:42:22,933 then what was built by cans and uh by his American counterparts 1019 00:42:22,933 --> 00:42:24,467 uh by his American counterparts afterward as the Breton woods 1020 00:42:24,467 --> 00:42:28,934 afterward as the Breton woods in. And so I think it’s fair to 1021 00:42:28,934 --> 00:42:31,134 in. And so I think it’s fair to say that uh during the war 1022 00:42:31,134 --> 00:42:35,699 say that uh during the war during the second World war and 1023 00:42:35,699 --> 00:42:37,234 during the second World war and uh and immediately after the 1024 00:42:37,234 --> 00:42:39,967 uh and immediately after the second World war uh the 1025 00:42:39,967 --> 00:42:42,334 second World war uh the advanced economies mostly that 1026 00:42:42,334 --> 00:42:43,966 advanced economies mostly that created the Bretton Woods 1027 00:42:43,966 --> 00:42:45,266 created the Bretton Woods institution did two kinds of 1028 00:42:45,266 --> 00:42:47,699 institution did two kinds of reforms. One kind was the 1029 00:42:47,699 --> 00:42:50,333 reforms. One kind was the domestic reforms the rules well 1030 00:42:50,333 --> 00:42:52,800 domestic reforms the rules well sort of new deal uh reforms 1031 00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:54,467 sort of new deal uh reforms that would then also uh 1032 00:42:54,467 --> 00:42:57,600 that would then also uh generalize. 1033 00:45:31,234 --> 00:45:34,267 The uh the the the populism I 1034 00:45:34,267 --> 00:45:35,467 The uh the the the populism I think definitely there is 1035 00:45:35,467 --> 00:45:36,600 think definitely there is something there that is very, 1036 00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,666 something there that is very, very correct. I would also 1037 00:45:39,666 --> 00:45:43,266 very correct. I would also agree that um domestic politics 1038 00:45:43,266 --> 00:45:45,799 agree that um domestic politics and domestic policies uh that 1039 00:45:45,799 --> 00:45:48,766 and domestic policies uh that are key to uh to engineer a new 1040 00:45:48,766 --> 00:45:50,333 are key to uh to engineer a new social contract and not enough. 1041 00:45:50,333 --> 00:45:51,800 social contract and not enough. We also need at the 1042 00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:54,667 We also need at the international level to extend 1043 00:45:54,667 --> 00:45:58,300 international level to extend the reach of the global rules 1044 00:45:58,300 --> 00:46:00,466 the reach of the global rules and that needs to include 1045 00:46:00,466 --> 00:46:03,733 and that needs to include taxation. 1046 00:46:32,100 --> 00:46:36,267 From your view is about one of 1047 00:46:36,267 --> 00:46:39,867 From your view is about one of your fundamental tenets is the 1048 00:46:39,867 --> 00:46:42,867 your fundamental tenets is the uh the space uh the policy 1049 00:46:42,867 --> 00:46:46,200 uh the space uh the policy space uh that you think that 1050 00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:49,400 space uh that you think that this era of hyper globalization 1051 00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:51,834 this era of hyper globalization as you call it uh by the way uh 1052 00:46:51,834 --> 00:46:54,233 as you call it uh by the way uh I uh I questioned very much 1053 00:46:54,233 --> 00:46:56,433 I uh I questioned very much your graph uh about you know 1054 00:46:56,433 --> 00:46:58,767 your graph uh about you know the the growth of trade and uh 1055 00:46:58,767 --> 00:47:02,434 the the growth of trade and uh and GDP before nineteen after 1056 00:47:02,434 --> 00:47:04,133 and GDP before nineteen after 1990, I’ve lots of questions 1057 00:47:04,133 --> 00:47:06,200 1990, I’ve lots of questions about. You know whether those 1058 00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:07,600 about. You know whether those those numbers are correct, I 1059 00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:08,834 those numbers are correct, I don’t think I don’t think they 1060 00:47:08,834 --> 00:47:10,467 don’t think I don’t think they are, but okay, let’s leave that 1061 00:47:10,467 --> 00:47:12,767 are, but okay, let’s leave that aside what you call the period 1062 00:47:12,767 --> 00:47:15,267 aside what you call the period of hyper globalization in the 1063 00:47:15,267 --> 00:47:16,734 of hyper globalization in the 1990s is essentially the fact 1064 00:47:16,734 --> 00:47:19,399 1990s is essentially the fact that countries have lost policy 1065 00:47:19,399 --> 00:47:20,767 that countries have lost policy space right. This is what 1066 00:47:20,767 --> 00:47:23,233 space right. This is what you’re after you want to give 1067 00:47:23,233 --> 00:47:25,767 you’re after you want to give back go back to the era of 1068 00:47:25,767 --> 00:47:27,700 back go back to the era of Britain Woods when countries 1069 00:47:27,700 --> 00:47:29,767 Britain Woods when countries that greater greater policy 1070 00:47:29,767 --> 00:47:32,733 that greater greater policy space and while I can see this 1071 00:47:32,733 --> 00:47:35,334 space and while I can see this uh issue as far as capital 1072 00:47:35,334 --> 00:47:37,267 uh issue as far as capital movement, uh is concerned uh I 1073 00:47:37,267 --> 00:47:39,799 movement, uh is concerned uh I see less. As far as as far as 1074 00:47:39,799 --> 00:47:41,733 see less. As far as as far as trade, it’s very straight, it’s 1075 00:47:41,733 --> 00:47:43,634 trade, it’s very straight, it’s concerned and you know I’m I’m 1076 00:47:43,634 --> 00:47:44,799 concerned and you know I’m I’m concerned that you don’t you 1077 00:47:44,799 --> 00:47:46,300 concerned that you don’t you didn’t give us really an 1078 00:47:46,300 --> 00:47:49,767 didn’t give us really an example of where because of the 1079 00:47:49,767 --> 00:47:53,799 example of where because of the shift from the gut to the WWE 1080 00:47:53,799 --> 00:47:56,600 shift from the gut to the WWE countries have lost the policy 1081 00:47:56,600 --> 00:47:59,866 countries have lost the policy space that you are anchoring 1082 00:47:59,866 --> 00:48:03,266 space that you are anchoring from uh that yet now they are 1083 00:48:03,266 --> 00:48:04,133 from uh that yet now they are prevented from doing policies 1084 00:48:04,133 --> 00:48:07,400 prevented from doing policies the good policies uh that you 1085 00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:08,799 the good policies uh that you want and that I want as well, 1086 00:48:08,799 --> 00:48:10,667 want and that I want as well, you know which country is 1087 00:48:10,667 --> 00:48:14,700 you know which country is prevented from having the. 1088 00:49:20,167 --> 00:49:23,067 Where no place so uh yes, it 1089 00:49:23,067 --> 00:49:25,067 Where no place so uh yes, it sounds it sounds great, so you 1090 00:49:25,067 --> 00:49:27,767 sounds it sounds great, so you know having space but uh I 1091 00:49:27,767 --> 00:49:29,267 know having space but uh I don’t think that the space is 1092 00:49:29,267 --> 00:49:30,699 don’t think that the space is to be done politically at the 1093 00:49:30,699 --> 00:49:32,334 to be done politically at the domestic level. It’s not 1094 00:49:32,334 --> 00:49:35,733 domestic level. It’s not because of the your rules some 1095 00:49:35,733 --> 00:49:36,400 because of the your rules some place that countries are not 1096 00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:38,734 place that countries are not able to to to have those 1097 00:49:38,734 --> 00:49:40,000 able to to to have those policies. Those good policies 1098 00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:42,400 policies. Those good policies that you and I want to have 1099 00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:44,433 that you and I want to have them in place and I’m in fact, 1100 00:49:44,433 --> 00:49:46,267 them in place and I’m in fact, rather and you as well as 1101 00:49:46,267 --> 00:49:48,166 rather and you as well as suppose uh questioned by the 1102 00:49:48,166 --> 00:49:49,500 suppose uh questioned by the fact that you know the one 1103 00:49:49,500 --> 00:49:53,034 fact that you know the one country that is. 1104 00:50:24,700 --> 00:50:29,867 Courses about the WTO rules uh 1105 00:50:29,867 --> 00:50:34,700 Courses about the WTO rules uh being uh anti weaker countries 1106 00:50:34,700 --> 00:50:39,367 being uh anti weaker countries and weaker people in. So, you 1107 00:50:39,367 --> 00:50:41,000 and weaker people in. So, you know the the policy space that 1108 00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:42,299 know the the policy space that they need that, in fact, he’s 1109 00:50:42,299 --> 00:50:43,866 they need that, in fact, he’s doing the other way around 1110 00:50:43,866 --> 00:50:47,534 doing the other way around weakening the WTO is 1111 00:50:47,534 --> 00:50:48,933 weakening the WTO is strengthening the strong 1112 00:50:48,933 --> 00:50:50,433 strengthening the strong countries at the expense of the 1113 00:50:50,433 --> 00:50:52,833 countries at the expense of the week. That’s my first point 1114 00:50:52,833 --> 00:50:54,433 week. That’s my first point about the policy’s space. my 1115 00:50:54,433 --> 00:50:56,799 about the policy’s space. my last point about the space is 1116 00:50:56,799 --> 00:51:01,000 last point about the space is about is about China. um I 1117 00:51:01,000 --> 00:51:03,266 about is about China. um I agree with you again uh about 1118 00:51:03,266 --> 00:51:05,733 agree with you again uh about the vision and the vision that 1119 00:51:05,733 --> 00:51:09,266 the vision and the vision that you expressed uh is peaceful. 1120 00:51:09,266 --> 00:51:13,266 you expressed uh is peaceful. Amid coexistence between the 1121 00:51:13,266 --> 00:51:14,434 Amid coexistence between the countries, including the west, 1122 00:51:14,434 --> 00:51:15,333 countries, including the west, including the advanced 1123 00:51:15,333 --> 00:51:17,134 including the advanced economies and I share with you, 1124 00:51:17,134 --> 00:51:19,834 economies and I share with you, the view that you know we for 1125 00:51:19,834 --> 00:51:22,333 the view that you know we for quite a while now we should 1126 00:51:22,333 --> 00:51:23,733 quite a while now we should give up on the idea that 1127 00:51:23,733 --> 00:51:25,233 give up on the idea that there’s going to be a regime 1128 00:51:25,233 --> 00:51:27,900 there’s going to be a regime change in uh in China uh maybe 1129 00:51:27,900 --> 00:51:30,699 change in uh in China uh maybe with hope that to happen when 1130 00:51:30,699 --> 00:51:33,300 with hope that to happen when China joined the W two in 2001, 1131 00:51:33,300 --> 00:51:35,799 China joined the W two in 2001, but in 2020, we don’t see that 1132 00:51:35,799 --> 00:51:38,467 but in 2020, we don’t see that in the horizon so we need a 1133 00:51:38,467 --> 00:51:39,600 in the horizon so we need a system. Indeed, we need the 1134 00:51:39,600 --> 00:51:42,801 system. Indeed, we need the global system with the space. 1135 00:51:42,801 --> 00:51:45,767 global system with the space. For China and for others to 1136 00:51:45,767 --> 00:51:48,266 For China and for others to have what you call this 1137 00:51:48,266 --> 00:51:49,667 have what you call this peaceful coexistence so fully 1138 00:51:49,667 --> 00:51:53,700 peaceful coexistence so fully agree with you. but you know uh 1139 00:51:53,700 --> 00:51:55,667 agree with you. but you know uh pets and and myself uh we have 1140 00:51:55,667 --> 00:51:57,867 pets and and myself uh we have just finished the book called 1141 00:51:57,867 --> 00:52:01,500 just finished the book called the China and the WTO that will 1142 00:52:01,500 --> 00:52:03,367 the China and the WTO that will be published in um in the near 1143 00:52:03,367 --> 00:52:05,867 be published in um in the near future by Princeton University 1144 00:52:05,867 --> 00:52:08,333 future by Princeton University press that precisely discuss 1145 00:52:08,333 --> 00:52:10,200 press that precisely discuss those uh those matters and we 1146 00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:13,000 those uh those matters and we come to a. Conclusion than you 1147 00:52:13,000 --> 00:52:14,834 come to a. Conclusion than you do, you know, we don’t come to 1148 00:52:14,834 --> 00:52:16,734 do, you know, we don’t come to the conclusion that you know we 1149 00:52:16,734 --> 00:52:19,599 the conclusion that you know we should go back to the the gut 1150 00:52:19,599 --> 00:52:23,266 should go back to the the gut rules the rules uh we say no 1151 00:52:23,266 --> 00:52:25,767 rules the rules uh we say no the with your roots need to be 1152 00:52:25,767 --> 00:52:28,367 the with your roots need to be changed to some extent and they 1153 00:52:28,367 --> 00:52:30,867 changed to some extent and they need to be changed. not with 1154 00:52:30,867 --> 00:52:32,567 need to be changed. not with respect to China to engineer a 1155 00:52:32,567 --> 00:52:36,333 respect to China to engineer a regime change in China but to 1156 00:52:36,333 --> 00:52:38,833 regime change in China but to engineer some behavioral change 1157 00:52:38,833 --> 00:52:41,366 engineer some behavioral change in some dimensions because. You 1158 00:52:41,366 --> 00:52:43,967 in some dimensions because. You know when you speak of policy 1159 00:52:43,967 --> 00:52:45,533 know when you speak of policy space for a country like China, 1160 00:52:45,533 --> 00:52:48,867 space for a country like China, that is not become the largest 1161 00:52:48,867 --> 00:52:50,366 that is not become the largest exporter in the world, the 1162 00:52:50,366 --> 00:52:53,200 exporter in the world, the second largest economy in the 1163 00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:54,834 second largest economy in the world there, I think there is a 1164 00:52:54,834 --> 00:52:58,266 world there, I think there is a real danger that if we do not 1165 00:52:58,266 --> 00:53:00,699 real danger that if we do not change some WTO rules not again 1166 00:53:00,699 --> 00:53:02,933 change some WTO rules not again to force China to change 1167 00:53:02,933 --> 00:53:05,299 to force China to change regime, but to force China and 1168 00:53:05,299 --> 00:53:06,933 regime, but to force China and other countries to change their 1169 00:53:06,933 --> 00:53:09,434 other countries to change their behavior in some dimensions in 1170 00:53:09,434 --> 00:53:11,899 behavior in some dimensions in only some those dimensions that 1171 00:53:11,899 --> 00:53:14,933 only some those dimensions that are indeed not compatible. with 1172 00:53:14,933 --> 00:53:17,067 are indeed not compatible. with the function. Of the global 1173 00:53:17,067 --> 00:53:19,267 the function. Of the global system, then we would not have 1174 00:53:19,267 --> 00:53:20,000 system, then we would not have done with your rules. We will 1175 00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:23,300 done with your rules. We will not have gurus, we will destroy 1176 00:53:23,300 --> 00:53:25,600 not have gurus, we will destroy the uh the system the system 1177 00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:28,834 the uh the system the system altogether uh so I think there 1178 00:53:28,834 --> 00:53:31,266 altogether uh so I think there there’s a real difference uh 1179 00:53:31,266 --> 00:53:33,400 there’s a real difference uh between us so maybe uh uh I 1180 00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:35,801 between us so maybe uh uh I give you uh two to 3 minutes to 1181 00:53:35,801 --> 00:53:36,767 give you uh two to 3 minutes to to respond to this and then I 1182 00:53:36,767 --> 00:53:39,367 to respond to this and then I take some of the questions from 1183 00:53:39,367 --> 00:53:41,000 take some of the questions from our audience uh some of them 1184 00:53:41,000 --> 00:53:42,233 our audience uh some of them that relate to what I just 1185 00:53:42,233 --> 00:53:43,767 that relate to what I just said, but some that going to 1186 00:53:43,767 --> 00:53:46,434 said, but some that going to completely different uh 1187 00:53:46,434 --> 00:53:49,867 completely different uh different matter. 1188 00:54:17,666 --> 00:54:21,266 He’s not for 86% of the 1189 00:54:21,266 --> 00:54:24,733 He’s not for 86% of the audience and yes 14% so a 1190 00:54:24,733 --> 00:54:27,767 audience and yes 14% so a rather hopeful uh audience. I 1191 00:54:27,767 --> 00:54:29,167 rather hopeful uh audience. I suppose the audience not only 1192 00:54:29,167 --> 00:54:30,833 suppose the audience not only that thing that globalization 1193 00:54:30,833 --> 00:54:31,733 that thing that globalization will survive, but the things 1194 00:54:31,733 --> 00:54:33,434 will survive, but the things that also globalization as as a 1195 00:54:33,434 --> 00:54:37,234 that also globalization as as a lot of uh of benefits. so Danny 1196 00:54:37,234 --> 00:54:39,900 lot of uh of benefits. so Danny why don’t you? I mean take 1197 00:54:39,900 --> 00:54:41,433 why don’t you? I mean take obviously you know um not 1198 00:54:41,433 --> 00:54:43,634 obviously you know um not expecting you to give a full 1199 00:54:43,634 --> 00:54:44,400 expecting you to give a full answer, but you know why don’t 1200 00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:49,034 answer, but you know why don’t you give some uh some remarks. 1201 00:55:17,667 --> 00:55:20,300 Is on this notion of of policy 1202 00:55:20,300 --> 00:55:23,333 Is on this notion of of policy space because for me it is uh 1203 00:55:23,333 --> 00:55:25,267 space because for me it is uh it is important and and and and 1204 00:55:25,267 --> 00:55:26,434 it is important and and and and you you you were rather 1205 00:55:26,434 --> 00:55:29,000 you you you were rather dismissive I think it’s just 1206 00:55:29,000 --> 00:55:30,200 dismissive I think it’s just it’s important to understand 1207 00:55:30,200 --> 00:55:32,300 it’s important to understand where the constraints really 1208 00:55:32,300 --> 00:55:33,767 where the constraints really come from the constraints 1209 00:55:33,767 --> 00:55:36,300 come from the constraints actually don’t come necessarily 1210 00:55:36,300 --> 00:55:39,233 actually don’t come necessarily from specific to your rules or 1211 00:55:39,233 --> 00:55:41,734 from specific to your rules or specific agreements Um the 1212 00:55:41,734 --> 00:55:43,233 specific agreements Um the constraints are really 1213 00:55:43,233 --> 00:55:44,234 constraints are really cognitive. It’s it’s the 1214 00:55:44,234 --> 00:55:45,200 cognitive. It’s it’s the constraints are in the minds of 1215 00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:47,466 constraints are in the minds of the domestic policy makers in 1216 00:55:47,466 --> 00:55:49,167 the domestic policy makers in terms of how they think uh the 1217 00:55:49,167 --> 00:55:51,667 terms of how they think uh the rules. What. Think the rules of 1218 00:55:51,667 --> 00:55:53,134 rules. What. Think the rules of the game are and let me give 1219 00:55:53,134 --> 00:55:55,434 the game are and let me give you a very, you know immediate 1220 00:55:55,434 --> 00:55:57,767 you a very, you know immediate uh uh example, here is an 1221 00:55:57,767 --> 00:55:58,600 uh uh example, here is an example, we’ve talked about the 1222 00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:00,000 example, we’ve talked about the gold Standard. we get agreed 1223 00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:02,133 gold Standard. we get agreed that there was actually no 1224 00:56:02,133 --> 00:56:03,267 that there was actually no external constraint in the You 1225 00:56:03,267 --> 00:56:05,200 external constraint in the You know the Gold standard in the 1226 00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:06,234 know the Gold standard in the sense that there was no 1227 00:56:06,234 --> 00:56:07,734 sense that there was no international agreement that 1228 00:56:07,734 --> 00:56:10,534 international agreement that made any country uh peg their 1229 00:56:10,534 --> 00:56:11,800 made any country uh peg their currency to the gold uh and 1230 00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:13,967 currency to the gold uh and certainly for any large country 1231 00:56:13,967 --> 00:56:15,801 certainly for any large country like the United States knowing 1232 00:56:15,801 --> 00:56:17,000 like the United States knowing international uh constraint 1233 00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:19,134 international uh constraint that would prevent them from uh 1234 00:56:19,134 --> 00:56:21,200 that would prevent them from uh servi. That contracts and 1235 00:56:21,200 --> 00:56:23,733 servi. That contracts and goals, so all the the 1236 00:56:23,733 --> 00:56:26,167 goals, so all the the constraint was in the perceived 1237 00:56:26,167 --> 00:56:28,000 constraint was in the perceived rules of the game as the 1238 00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:30,467 rules of the game as the domestic policy makers of 1239 00:56:30,467 --> 00:56:31,900 domestic policy makers of followed them and so there was 1240 00:56:31,900 --> 00:56:33,300 followed them and so there was a rules of the game and I 1241 00:56:33,300 --> 00:56:35,333 a rules of the game and I wasn’t in the constraints um 1242 00:56:35,333 --> 00:56:36,834 wasn’t in the constraints um and even though there was no 1243 00:56:36,834 --> 00:56:39,834 and even though there was no external enforcer um the the 1244 00:56:39,834 --> 00:56:41,267 external enforcer um the the the the the system imposes 1245 00:56:41,267 --> 00:56:44,033 the the the system imposes constraints on what individual 1246 00:56:44,033 --> 00:56:46,300 constraints on what individual countries think it is proper to 1247 00:56:46,300 --> 00:56:50,233 countries think it is proper to do what they need to do um now. 1248 00:56:50,233 --> 00:56:52,766 do what they need to do um now. In the post ninety world after 1249 00:56:52,766 --> 00:56:54,400 In the post ninety world after I post to your world. of 1250 00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:55,867 I post to your world. of course, you know some of them 1251 00:56:55,867 --> 00:56:57,399 course, you know some of them have been notified uh in the in 1252 00:56:57,399 --> 00:56:59,833 have been notified uh in the in the form of actual WQ 1253 00:56:59,833 --> 00:57:00,734 the form of actual WQ agreements are traded 1254 00:57:00,734 --> 00:57:01,467 agreements are traded agreements or those with 1255 00:57:01,467 --> 00:57:03,133 agreements or those with respect to capital flows in the 1256 00:57:03,133 --> 00:57:05,467 respect to capital flows in the OCD and so forth, but that’s 1257 00:57:05,467 --> 00:57:07,034 OCD and so forth, but that’s only a subset of the rules as 1258 00:57:07,034 --> 00:57:10,266 only a subset of the rules as they existed to find where the 1259 00:57:10,266 --> 00:57:11,100 they existed to find where the constraints and the lack of 1260 00:57:11,100 --> 00:57:12,833 constraints and the lack of policies spaces you actually 1261 00:57:12,833 --> 00:57:15,900 policies spaces you actually have to go and look at what 1262 00:57:15,900 --> 00:57:17,467 have to go and look at what policy makers we’re doing and 1263 00:57:17,467 --> 00:57:18,867 policy makers we’re doing and saying I’ll actually give you a 1264 00:57:18,867 --> 00:57:21,267 saying I’ll actually give you a specific example of that. uh 1265 00:57:21,267 --> 00:57:23,900 specific example of that. uh that’s about. Actually existing 1266 00:57:23,900 --> 00:57:26,000 that’s about. Actually existing written down, but I think what 1267 00:57:26,000 --> 00:57:27,500 written down, but I think what I you know the broader issue is 1268 00:57:27,500 --> 00:57:29,700 I you know the broader issue is is the kind of you know, sort 1269 00:57:29,700 --> 00:57:32,000 is the kind of you know, sort of when you know a quote that 1270 00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:33,834 of when you know a quote that comes to mind is it’s Tony 1271 00:57:33,834 --> 00:57:36,899 comes to mind is it’s Tony Blair back in 2005, you know 1272 00:57:36,899 --> 00:57:38,367 Blair back in 2005, you know defending globalization by 1273 00:57:38,367 --> 00:57:39,966 defending globalization by saying you know I hear people 1274 00:57:39,966 --> 00:57:42,233 saying you know I hear people say we have to stop and debate 1275 00:57:42,233 --> 00:57:43,700 say we have to stop and debate globalization, and he says you 1276 00:57:43,700 --> 00:57:45,733 globalization, and he says you might as well debate whether 1277 00:57:45,733 --> 00:57:47,700 might as well debate whether should follow summer right. so 1278 00:57:47,700 --> 00:57:48,867 should follow summer right. so it’s it’s this is like it’s 1279 00:57:48,867 --> 00:57:50,434 it’s it’s this is like it’s it’s a it’s a it’s a given and 1280 00:57:50,434 --> 00:57:52,834 it’s a it’s a it’s a given and you should you know just stop 1281 00:57:52,834 --> 00:57:55,734 you should you know just stop complaining and do what. 1282 00:57:55,734 --> 00:57:57,233 complaining and do what. Globalization requires you to 1283 00:57:57,233 --> 00:58:00,234 Globalization requires you to do it’s an inversion of the 1284 00:58:00,234 --> 00:58:02,234 do it’s an inversion of the policy priorities of the best 1285 00:58:02,234 --> 00:58:05,700 policy priorities of the best Brett Spirit where the global 1286 00:58:05,700 --> 00:58:06,867 Brett Spirit where the global economy under the Bretton 1287 00:58:06,867 --> 00:58:08,234 economy under the Bretton Woods. Uh we’re supposed to be 1288 00:58:08,234 --> 00:58:10,567 Woods. Uh we’re supposed to be in the service of domestic 1289 00:58:10,567 --> 00:58:12,466 in the service of domestic economic insertion objectives, 1290 00:58:12,466 --> 00:58:14,433 economic insertion objectives, including uh full employment 1291 00:58:14,433 --> 00:58:17,234 including uh full employment after the 1990s um as this 1292 00:58:17,234 --> 00:58:20,167 after the 1990s um as this quote from Blair uh indicates 1293 00:58:20,167 --> 00:58:22,834 quote from Blair uh indicates uh it became that the domestic 1294 00:58:22,834 --> 00:58:24,133 uh it became that the domestic economy was became in the 1295 00:58:24,133 --> 00:58:26,967 economy was became in the service of an open global 1296 00:58:26,967 --> 00:58:27,967 service of an open global economy, but let me get more 1297 00:58:27,967 --> 00:58:29,967 economy, but let me get more concrete. I give you uh you 1298 00:58:29,967 --> 00:58:32,433 concrete. I give you uh you know you ask for an example, um 1299 00:58:32,433 --> 00:58:33,966 know you ask for an example, um let me compare you know, let’s 1300 00:58:33,966 --> 00:58:36,934 let me compare you know, let’s compare the 1980s and 2000s in 1301 00:58:36,934 --> 00:58:40,166 compare the 1980s and 2000s in the way that US trade policy 1302 00:58:40,166 --> 00:58:43,400 the way that US trade policy reacted to what was then the 1303 00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:45,767 reacted to what was then the dominant um import surge and 1304 00:58:45,767 --> 00:58:48,233 dominant um import surge and threat in the 1980s. It was 1305 00:58:48,233 --> 00:58:49,966 threat in the 1980s. It was Japan in the in the 2000 It was 1306 00:58:49,966 --> 00:58:53,033 Japan in the in the 2000 It was China now in the 1980s, you 1307 00:58:53,033 --> 00:58:54,000 China now in the 1980s, you know even though we had a you 1308 00:58:54,000 --> 00:58:56,700 know even though we had a you know in the US, a free trade of 1309 00:58:56,700 --> 00:59:00,933 know in the US, a free trade of President Reagan um. Raven 1310 00:59:00,933 --> 00:59:02,867 President Reagan um. Raven responded to many of the you 1311 00:59:02,867 --> 00:59:03,867 responded to many of the you know sort of social conflicts 1312 00:59:03,867 --> 00:59:05,000 know sort of social conflicts and distribution of conflicts 1313 00:59:05,000 --> 00:59:07,401 and distribution of conflicts that were generated by the 1314 00:59:07,401 --> 00:59:10,000 that were generated by the Japanese exports surge by 1315 00:59:10,000 --> 00:59:11,334 Japanese exports surge by putting in place voluntary 1316 00:59:11,334 --> 00:59:12,733 putting in place voluntary export restraints and you’ll 1317 00:59:12,733 --> 00:59:14,934 export restraints and you’ll remember under very well. That 1318 00:59:14,934 --> 00:59:16,533 remember under very well. That was when we started talking 1319 00:59:16,533 --> 00:59:18,000 was when we started talking about the new protectionism 1320 00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:19,467 about the new protectionism right and a lot of people 1321 00:59:19,467 --> 00:59:21,133 right and a lot of people really became very worried that 1322 00:59:21,133 --> 00:59:22,633 really became very worried that this might be you know a 1323 00:59:22,633 --> 00:59:24,266 this might be you know a globalization what’s going off 1324 00:59:24,266 --> 00:59:25,834 globalization what’s going off track that there was nothing in 1325 00:59:25,834 --> 00:59:27,433 track that there was nothing in the rules then because the WTA 1326 00:59:27,433 --> 00:59:29,700 the rules then because the WTA not yet coming to effect that 1327 00:59:29,700 --> 00:59:32,300 not yet coming to effect that really prevented countries from 1328 00:59:32,300 --> 00:59:33,934 really prevented countries from doing you know doing this 1329 00:59:33,934 --> 00:59:36,200 doing you know doing this double VR. It would be 1330 00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:40,434 double VR. It would be subsequently banned in the WTO 1331 00:59:40,434 --> 00:59:41,967 subsequently banned in the WTO uh, but that was an example of 1332 00:59:41,967 --> 00:59:44,334 uh, but that was an example of the kind of thing that V R’s, 1333 00:59:44,334 --> 00:59:45,300 the kind of thing that V R’s, many trained economist told was 1334 00:59:45,300 --> 00:59:47,299 many trained economist told was a terrible thing and in fact 1335 00:59:47,299 --> 00:59:48,933 a terrible thing and in fact they were an act of system 1336 00:59:48,933 --> 00:59:51,267 they were an act of system maintenance because they were a 1337 00:59:51,267 --> 00:59:53,934 maintenance because they were a way in which uh um importing 1338 00:59:53,934 --> 00:59:55,333 way in which uh um importing countries. The United States 1339 00:59:55,333 --> 00:59:56,700 countries. The United States also European countries. we’re 1340 00:59:56,700 --> 00:59:59,233 also European countries. we’re able to manage deals with Japan 1341 00:59:59,233 --> 01:00:01,666 able to manage deals with Japan uh to provide for temporary 1342 01:00:01,666 --> 01:00:02,966 uh to provide for temporary protection for some important 1343 01:00:02,966 --> 01:00:04,133 protection for some important sectors. Well, it’s actually 1344 01:00:04,133 --> 01:00:06,301 sectors. Well, it’s actually driving. On the side, the 1345 01:00:06,301 --> 01:00:07,500 driving. On the side, the Japanese exporters because they 1346 01:00:07,500 --> 01:00:08,800 Japanese exporters because they would keep the quotes and it 1347 01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:10,534 would keep the quotes and it even though it looked like it 1348 01:00:10,534 --> 01:00:12,367 even though it looked like it was a irrigation from the ideal 1349 01:00:12,367 --> 01:00:14,000 was a irrigation from the ideal rules that trade economist 1350 01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:15,199 rules that trade economist might wanna have this was 1351 01:00:15,199 --> 01:00:17,034 might wanna have this was perfectly okay and they did it 1352 01:00:17,034 --> 01:00:18,600 perfectly okay and they did it right and this is what saved 1353 01:00:18,600 --> 01:00:20,400 right and this is what saved you know, sort of you know the 1354 01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:21,966 you know, sort of you know the trade regime in the 1980s to 1355 01:00:21,966 --> 01:00:23,300 trade regime in the 1980s to the extent that you could act, 1356 01:00:23,300 --> 01:00:25,634 the extent that you could act, then in the 1990s launch into 1357 01:00:25,634 --> 01:00:28,234 then in the 1990s launch into this big leap into uh you know 1358 01:00:28,234 --> 01:00:30,301 this big leap into uh you know hyper globalization so far from 1359 01:00:30,301 --> 01:00:32,933 hyper globalization so far from you know uh you know far from 1360 01:00:32,933 --> 01:00:35,733 you know uh you know far from upsetting or. Globalization 1361 01:00:35,733 --> 01:00:38,301 upsetting or. Globalization this temporary spite this 1362 01:00:38,301 --> 01:00:39,900 this temporary spite this temporary protection this act 1363 01:00:39,900 --> 01:00:41,800 temporary protection this act of being able to pull up these 1364 01:00:41,800 --> 01:00:43,967 of being able to pull up these barriers domestically in fact, 1365 01:00:43,967 --> 01:00:46,267 barriers domestically in fact, save the regime. um now go 1366 01:00:46,267 --> 01:00:48,000 save the regime. um now go back. then we go to 2000. now 1367 01:00:48,000 --> 01:00:49,900 back. then we go to 2000. now the rules are very different 1368 01:00:49,900 --> 01:00:51,800 the rules are very different but again, mostly, it’s not 1369 01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:55,266 but again, mostly, it’s not because the WTO band B ERs or 1370 01:00:55,266 --> 01:00:56,267 because the WTO band B ERs or other unilateral protections. 1371 01:00:56,267 --> 01:00:58,267 other unilateral protections. in fact, there were things that 1372 01:00:58,267 --> 01:01:00,000 in fact, there were things that the US administration in the 1373 01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:02,367 the US administration in the 2000 could do uh they were as 1374 01:01:02,367 --> 01:01:03,967 2000 could do uh they were as part of what has been 1375 01:01:03,967 --> 01:01:05,766 part of what has been negotiated with China as part 1376 01:01:05,766 --> 01:01:10,233 negotiated with China as part of China. But because the 2000 1377 01:01:10,233 --> 01:01:11,033 of China. But because the 2000 understanding of the rules of 1378 01:01:11,033 --> 01:01:13,267 understanding of the rules of the game was the understanding 1379 01:01:13,267 --> 01:01:15,699 the game was the understanding or the understanding that you 1380 01:01:15,699 --> 01:01:17,199 or the understanding that you know like globalization is a 1381 01:01:17,199 --> 01:01:18,566 know like globalization is a force of nature, you know 1382 01:01:18,566 --> 01:01:19,900 force of nature, you know there’s nothing you can do to 1383 01:01:19,900 --> 01:01:21,466 there’s nothing you can do to it. Uh as much you know like 1384 01:01:21,466 --> 01:01:22,801 it. Uh as much you know like you can’t you know affect the 1385 01:01:22,801 --> 01:01:24,300 you can’t you know affect the hurricane you can’t affect 1386 01:01:24,300 --> 01:01:25,333 hurricane you can’t affect mobilization so you just have 1387 01:01:25,333 --> 01:01:27,234 mobilization so you just have to you know, basically grin and 1388 01:01:27,234 --> 01:01:29,400 to you know, basically grin and bear with it um it was actually 1389 01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:33,966 bear with it um it was actually very little done uh to uh uh to 1390 01:01:33,966 --> 01:01:37,266 very little done uh to uh uh to uh protect communities in the. 1391 01:01:37,266 --> 01:01:39,667 uh protect communities in the. That we’re we’re very adversely 1392 01:01:39,667 --> 01:01:41,733 That we’re we’re very adversely affected by um by um the China 1393 01:01:41,733 --> 01:01:43,967 affected by um by um the China trade shock and now we have, of 1394 01:01:43,967 --> 01:01:45,534 trade shock and now we have, of course, we’re very detailed 1395 01:01:45,534 --> 01:01:47,966 course, we’re very detailed very well done and studies that 1396 01:01:47,966 --> 01:01:49,400 very well done and studies that show not only that the 1397 01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:51,900 show not only that the economically devastating impact 1398 01:01:51,900 --> 01:01:53,733 economically devastating impact of this show and in particular 1399 01:01:53,733 --> 01:01:55,600 of this show and in particular communities in the United 1400 01:01:55,600 --> 01:01:56,500 communities in the United States, perhaps more important 1401 01:01:56,500 --> 01:01:58,000 States, perhaps more important for our conversation, we have 1402 01:01:58,000 --> 01:01:59,967 for our conversation, we have evidence that they were behind 1403 01:01:59,967 --> 01:02:02,866 evidence that they were behind uh the um uh the the support 1404 01:02:02,866 --> 01:02:04,434 uh the um uh the the support for Trump and and and and the 1405 01:02:04,434 --> 01:02:06,900 for Trump and and and and the far right. And the United 1406 01:02:06,900 --> 01:02:09,333 far right. And the United States and also a similar 1407 01:02:09,333 --> 01:02:12,266 States and also a similar studies have shown similar um 1408 01:02:12,266 --> 01:02:13,667 studies have shown similar um uh consequences for for for for 1409 01:02:13,667 --> 01:02:15,300 uh consequences for for for for Europe as well. So this is you 1410 01:02:15,300 --> 01:02:17,267 Europe as well. So this is you know. this is an example of 1411 01:02:17,267 --> 01:02:21,800 know. this is an example of okay, No, no okay II don’t want 1412 01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:23,399 okay, No, no okay II don’t want to pursue on this thing. I just 1413 01:02:23,399 --> 01:02:25,833 to pursue on this thing. I just want to have a little bit of 1414 01:02:25,833 --> 01:02:28,301 want to have a little bit of time um for some of the 1415 01:02:28,301 --> 01:02:29,734 time um for some of the questions Danny uh sorry to 1416 01:02:29,734 --> 01:02:31,600 questions Danny uh sorry to interrupt you and I’m not going 1417 01:02:31,600 --> 01:02:34,567 interrupt you and I’m not going to give a reiner. uh I think 1418 01:02:34,567 --> 01:02:38,033 to give a reiner. uh I think fully answer but you. You have 1419 01:02:38,033 --> 01:02:39,233 fully answer but you. You have to allow me to respond no, but 1420 01:02:39,233 --> 01:02:41,867 to allow me to respond no, but uh we can we can do that later 1421 01:02:41,867 --> 01:02:44,700 uh we can we can do that later on on the bilateral basis. Let 1422 01:02:44,700 --> 01:02:47,233 on on the bilateral basis. Let let me convey to you a couple 1423 01:02:47,233 --> 01:02:50,201 let me convey to you a couple of questions that have been put 1424 01:02:50,201 --> 01:02:53,899 of questions that have been put forward by a number of the uh 1425 01:02:53,899 --> 01:02:58,200 forward by a number of the uh people in the audience. Uh one 1426 01:02:58,200 --> 01:03:00,333 people in the audience. Uh one question is by but many people 1427 01:03:00,333 --> 01:03:01,200 question is by but many people have endorsed their question 1428 01:03:01,200 --> 01:03:04,834 have endorsed their question and one question uh is by you 1429 01:03:04,834 --> 01:03:06,267 and one question uh is by you but also endorsed by by many 1430 01:03:06,267 --> 01:03:08,666 but also endorsed by by many and let me give you those two 1431 01:03:08,666 --> 01:03:11,466 and let me give you those two questions uh. And they’re very 1432 01:03:11,466 --> 01:03:13,600 questions uh. And they’re very different, but let me give them 1433 01:03:13,600 --> 01:03:15,234 different, but let me give them together and then you can 1434 01:03:15,234 --> 01:03:18,700 together and then you can handle as you as you wish the 1435 01:03:18,700 --> 01:03:22,667 handle as you as you wish the first question is uh about the 1436 01:03:22,667 --> 01:03:24,667 first question is uh about the three in a sense What we’ve 1437 01:03:24,667 --> 01:03:27,200 three in a sense What we’ve been talking about uh just uh 1438 01:03:27,200 --> 01:03:31,067 been talking about uh just uh just knowing part and uh about 1439 01:03:31,067 --> 01:03:33,499 just knowing part and uh about the fact that the the the the 1440 01:03:33,499 --> 01:03:35,234 the fact that the the the the the world and the has become a 1441 01:03:35,234 --> 01:03:39,533 the world and the has become a very diverse world. Uh we spoke 1442 01:03:39,533 --> 01:03:42,000 very diverse world. Uh we spoke about China but emerging uh 1443 01:03:42,000 --> 01:03:43,467 about China but emerging uh emerging countries and uh it’s 1444 01:03:43,467 --> 01:03:49,733 emerging countries and uh it’s clearly. This uh becomes more 1445 01:03:49,733 --> 01:03:51,699 clearly. This uh becomes more difficult to deal with the 1446 01:03:51,699 --> 01:03:53,733 difficult to deal with the larger the diversity of the 1447 01:03:53,733 --> 01:03:54,933 larger the diversity of the world, and so one of the 1448 01:03:54,933 --> 01:03:59,801 world, and so one of the question is um well isn’t uh a 1449 01:03:59,801 --> 01:04:05,167 question is um well isn’t uh a solution to this to confine uh 1450 01:04:05,167 --> 01:04:06,933 solution to this to confine uh globalization to a small group 1451 01:04:06,933 --> 01:04:09,334 globalization to a small group of uh of country. you know if 1452 01:04:09,334 --> 01:04:10,066 of uh of country. you know if if you you’re talking of sort 1453 01:04:10,066 --> 01:04:16,166 if you you’re talking of sort of deeper integration among. 1454 01:05:45,266 --> 01:05:47,800 Integration and uh the second 1455 01:05:47,800 --> 01:05:49,866 Integration and uh the second issue is about the digital 1456 01:05:49,866 --> 01:05:53,267 issue is about the digital technology and the impact on 1457 01:05:53,267 --> 01:05:53,967 technology and the impact on globalization give you back the 1458 01:05:53,967 --> 01:05:57,566 globalization give you back the floor. Let me ask you very 1459 01:05:57,566 --> 01:05:59,833 floor. Let me ask you very briefly um each question uh II 1460 01:05:59,833 --> 01:06:01,299 briefly um each question uh II think first. I mean, I agree 1461 01:06:01,299 --> 01:06:03,367 think first. I mean, I agree that it it’s in general going 1462 01:06:03,367 --> 01:06:05,400 that it it’s in general going to be easier for a smaller 1463 01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:08,699 to be easier for a smaller group of relatively similar 1464 01:06:08,699 --> 01:06:09,666 group of relatively similar countries uh neighboring 1465 01:06:09,666 --> 01:06:11,367 countries uh neighboring countries to sustain deeper 1466 01:06:11,367 --> 01:06:12,834 countries to sustain deeper integration because they could 1467 01:06:12,834 --> 01:06:17,434 integration because they could and visit um uh complementing 1468 01:06:17,434 --> 01:06:19,400 and visit um uh complementing economic integration with the 1469 01:06:19,400 --> 01:06:21,267 economic integration with the process of uh social political 1470 01:06:21,267 --> 01:06:23,900 process of uh social political uh physical integration. um at 1471 01:06:23,900 --> 01:06:25,266 uh physical integration. um at the same time, I think the 1472 01:06:25,266 --> 01:06:30,166 the same time, I think the obvious example is. 1473 01:06:58,634 --> 01:07:00,300 You know sort of stepping 1474 01:07:00,300 --> 01:07:01,667 You know sort of stepping stones, there was a way of 1475 01:07:01,667 --> 01:07:04,267 stones, there was a way of building mutual trust and uh 1476 01:07:04,267 --> 01:07:06,267 building mutual trust and uh increasing economic in the way 1477 01:07:06,267 --> 01:07:08,167 increasing economic in the way of of of of doing that. I think 1478 01:07:08,167 --> 01:07:09,367 of of of of doing that. I think that the European Union went 1479 01:07:09,367 --> 01:07:11,966 that the European Union went off track in the 1980s with the 1480 01:07:11,966 --> 01:07:12,767 off track in the 1980s with the you know what they believe 1481 01:07:12,767 --> 01:07:15,034 you know what they believe towards a single market where I 1482 01:07:15,034 --> 01:07:18,733 towards a single market where I think the economic agenda uh 1483 01:07:18,733 --> 01:07:20,267 think the economic agenda uh completely overshadowed began 1484 01:07:20,267 --> 01:07:23,900 completely overshadowed began to overshadow the social and 1485 01:07:23,900 --> 01:07:26,767 to overshadow the social and political agendas, and I think, 1486 01:07:26,767 --> 01:07:29,434 political agendas, and I think, of course I mean you know even. 1487 01:07:29,434 --> 01:07:31,100 of course I mean you know even. Was taken with the European 1488 01:07:31,100 --> 01:07:33,167 Was taken with the European currency unification uh and and 1489 01:07:33,167 --> 01:07:35,167 currency unification uh and and and the euro I think that 1490 01:07:35,167 --> 01:07:37,233 and the euro I think that created a very huge imbalance 1491 01:07:37,233 --> 01:07:40,267 created a very huge imbalance between how um uh economically 1492 01:07:40,267 --> 01:07:42,834 between how um uh economically integrated uh Europe and uh 1493 01:07:42,834 --> 01:07:44,600 integrated uh Europe and uh uninterrupted it was in so many 1494 01:07:44,600 --> 01:07:46,000 uninterrupted it was in so many other dimensions and I think 1495 01:07:46,000 --> 01:07:47,767 other dimensions and I think you know the only way we can 1496 01:07:47,767 --> 01:07:51,767 you know the only way we can solve that problem is logically 1497 01:07:51,767 --> 01:07:52,333 solve that problem is logically either uh physical and 1498 01:07:52,333 --> 01:07:53,866 either uh physical and integration we have to catch up 1499 01:07:53,866 --> 01:07:55,933 integration we have to catch up with economic integration or 1500 01:07:55,933 --> 01:07:56,300 with economic integration or economic integration will have 1501 01:07:56,300 --> 01:07:58,000 economic integration will have to somehow step back and I 1502 01:07:58,000 --> 01:08:01,700 to somehow step back and I think uh you know. An example 1503 01:08:01,700 --> 01:08:03,633 think uh you know. An example of the country that um has 1504 01:08:03,633 --> 01:08:05,699 of the country that um has chosen less and uh you know 1505 01:08:05,699 --> 01:08:07,900 chosen less and uh you know your role, you know it’s 1506 01:08:07,900 --> 01:08:09,233 your role, you know it’s irrelevant to our previous 1507 01:08:09,233 --> 01:08:11,801 irrelevant to our previous discussion. That of course was 1508 01:08:11,801 --> 01:08:13,401 discussion. That of course was formally the one that was least 1509 01:08:13,401 --> 01:08:15,734 formally the one that was least restricted by European rules um 1510 01:08:15,734 --> 01:08:17,934 restricted by European rules um but I still felt uh that you 1511 01:08:17,934 --> 01:08:19,033 but I still felt uh that you know that they didn’t want to 1512 01:08:19,033 --> 01:08:20,600 know that they didn’t want to live under the European Court 1513 01:08:20,600 --> 01:08:21,966 live under the European Court of Justice around there, You 1514 01:08:21,966 --> 01:08:25,233 of Justice around there, You know the the bulk of uh uh 1515 01:08:25,233 --> 01:08:29,833 know the the bulk of uh uh European um uh a communal um. 1516 01:08:29,833 --> 01:08:31,600 European um uh a communal um. With respect to digital 1517 01:08:31,600 --> 01:08:32,533 With respect to digital technologies, I do think it’s 1518 01:08:32,533 --> 01:08:34,966 technologies, I do think it’s going to have to require 1519 01:08:34,966 --> 01:08:35,934 going to have to require different kinds of rules. I 1520 01:08:35,934 --> 01:08:40,434 different kinds of rules. I mean I think um the race 1521 01:08:40,434 --> 01:08:42,934 mean I think um the race significant questions about um 1522 01:08:42,934 --> 01:08:46,834 significant questions about um uh national security about um 1523 01:08:46,834 --> 01:08:49,734 uh national security about um issues about privacy and issues 1524 01:08:49,734 --> 01:08:51,266 issues about privacy and issues about um uh new forms of 1525 01:08:51,266 --> 01:08:52,734 about um uh new forms of competition and how to deal 1526 01:08:52,734 --> 01:08:54,166 competition and how to deal with Um you know, sort of you 1527 01:08:54,166 --> 01:08:55,666 with Um you know, sort of you know winner take all markets 1528 01:08:55,666 --> 01:08:57,566 know winner take all markets and networks and so there are 1529 01:08:57,566 --> 01:08:58,600 and networks and so there are there are these three different 1530 01:08:58,600 --> 01:09:03,266 there are these three different sets of. Uh that are raised by 1531 01:09:03,266 --> 01:09:04,299 sets of. Uh that are raised by technology and I think many 1532 01:09:04,299 --> 01:09:07,533 technology and I think many ways way is a kind of a kind of 1533 01:09:07,533 --> 01:09:09,000 ways way is a kind of a kind of a test case for many of these 1534 01:09:09,000 --> 01:09:12,266 a test case for many of these things if I were to apply my 1535 01:09:12,266 --> 01:09:13,800 things if I were to apply my principles for let’s say the US 1536 01:09:13,800 --> 01:09:17,000 principles for let’s say the US China moss or uh live and let 1537 01:09:17,000 --> 01:09:19,566 China moss or uh live and let live approach uh to the case. I 1538 01:09:19,566 --> 01:09:21,699 live approach uh to the case. I would say that under my 1539 01:09:21,699 --> 01:09:23,600 would say that under my principles to US ought to be 1540 01:09:23,600 --> 01:09:25,000 principles to US ought to be relatively free to keep away 1541 01:09:25,000 --> 01:09:26,900 relatively free to keep away from its own market on national 1542 01:09:26,900 --> 01:09:30,233 from its own market on national security grounds. uh. That US 1543 01:09:30,233 --> 01:09:31,767 security grounds. uh. That US would have relatively should 1544 01:09:31,767 --> 01:09:35,467 would have relatively should have limited justification for 1545 01:09:35,467 --> 01:09:37,667 have limited justification for uh you know banning the sales 1546 01:09:37,667 --> 01:09:39,533 uh you know banning the sales of uh components or semi 1547 01:09:39,533 --> 01:09:41,867 of uh components or semi conductors and chips to to 1548 01:09:41,867 --> 01:09:44,934 conductors and chips to to third um to to to uh to 1549 01:09:44,934 --> 01:09:46,234 third um to to to uh to companies outside the United 1550 01:09:46,234 --> 01:09:47,533 companies outside the United States that might be part of 1551 01:09:47,533 --> 01:09:50,333 States that might be part of the uh supply chain. So again, 1552 01:09:50,333 --> 01:09:52,267 the uh supply chain. So again, the principle is you’re allowed 1553 01:09:52,267 --> 01:09:53,200 the principle is you’re allowed to protect your own national 1554 01:09:53,200 --> 01:09:55,467 to protect your own national security. if you think that um 1555 01:09:55,467 --> 01:09:57,367 security. if you think that um like you know the presence of 1556 01:09:57,367 --> 01:10:00,234 like you know the presence of of ways is is is a threat uh 1557 01:10:00,234 --> 01:10:01,966 of ways is is is a threat uh but I think when the US extend 1558 01:10:01,966 --> 01:10:03,900 but I think when the US extend this to uh to involve other 1559 01:10:03,900 --> 01:10:06,000 this to uh to involve other countries and Outside the 1560 01:10:06,000 --> 01:10:08,334 countries and Outside the United States that is actually 1561 01:10:08,334 --> 01:10:09,966 United States that is actually such a disproportionate 1562 01:10:09,966 --> 01:10:12,466 such a disproportionate reaction, and it turns to be a 1563 01:10:12,466 --> 01:10:13,801 reaction, and it turns to be a campaign at um at at at 1564 01:10:13,801 --> 01:10:16,767 campaign at um at at at bringing down rather than uh um 1565 01:10:16,767 --> 01:10:18,300 bringing down rather than uh um actually protecting your own 1566 01:10:18,300 --> 01:10:19,433 actually protecting your own national security. So that’s 1567 01:10:19,433 --> 01:10:20,867 national security. So that’s why I think where my my 1568 01:10:20,867 --> 01:10:22,000 why I think where my my principles would apply in that 1569 01:10:22,000 --> 01:10:25,266 principles would apply in that kind of a concrete case. uh if 1570 01:10:25,266 --> 01:10:28,399 kind of a concrete case. uh if I if I can use the the the time 1571 01:10:28,399 --> 01:10:30,599 I if I can use the the the time um we have such an interesting 1572 01:10:30,599 --> 01:10:32,300 um we have such an interesting discussion and also to relate 1573 01:10:32,300 --> 01:10:35,133 discussion and also to relate this to one of the questions uh 1574 01:10:35,133 --> 01:10:39,133 this to one of the questions uh that. Uh I have uh I have 1575 01:10:39,133 --> 01:10:39,900 that. Uh I have uh I have received here and maybe even a 1576 01:10:39,900 --> 01:10:41,300 received here and maybe even a couple of questions they relate 1577 01:10:41,300 --> 01:10:45,066 couple of questions they relate to to geopolitics and let me 1578 01:10:45,066 --> 01:10:47,867 to to geopolitics and let me just ask you the following 1579 01:10:47,867 --> 01:10:51,200 just ask you the following question. Uh I think that is a 1580 01:10:51,200 --> 01:10:53,534 question. Uh I think that is a question that you know all of 1581 01:10:53,534 --> 01:10:55,234 question that you know all of us need to ask ourselves and 1582 01:10:55,234 --> 01:10:57,499 us need to ask ourselves and I’ve asked myself many times 1583 01:10:57,499 --> 01:10:59,500 I’ve asked myself many times and you know II don’t have I 1584 01:10:59,500 --> 01:11:00,700 and you know II don’t have I don’t have an answer and I’m 1585 01:11:00,700 --> 01:11:01,600 don’t have an answer and I’m I’m really curious. I don’t 1586 01:11:01,600 --> 01:11:03,533 I’m really curious. I don’t think there is an answer. I’m 1587 01:11:03,533 --> 01:11:04,333 think there is an answer. I’m really curious to hear your 1588 01:11:04,333 --> 01:11:05,634 really curious to hear your answer. You know when you 1589 01:11:05,634 --> 01:11:08,166 answer. You know when you speak. Um and I’m saying that 1590 01:11:08,166 --> 01:11:09,967 speak. Um and I’m saying that in a positive manner uh when 1591 01:11:09,967 --> 01:11:14,500 in a positive manner uh when you speak of the um the woods 1592 01:11:14,500 --> 01:11:18,133 you speak of the um the woods era right uh uh in in a very uh 1593 01:11:18,133 --> 01:11:19,067 era right uh uh in in a very uh positive manner right this is 1594 01:11:19,067 --> 01:11:19,967 positive manner right this is this is your preferred of the 1595 01:11:19,967 --> 01:11:23,200 this is your preferred of the three regimes right uh this is 1596 01:11:23,200 --> 01:11:26,000 three regimes right uh this is your preferred regime. Now we 1597 01:11:26,000 --> 01:11:28,733 your preferred regime. Now we have to remember that uh 1598 01:11:28,733 --> 01:11:30,200 have to remember that uh Bretton Woods if you’re looking 1599 01:11:30,200 --> 01:11:33,967 Bretton Woods if you’re looking in geopolitical terms uh this 1600 01:11:33,967 --> 01:11:39,633 in geopolitical terms uh this is a world where. The US is 1601 01:11:39,633 --> 01:11:42,533 is a world where. The US is very much the dominant power 1602 01:11:42,533 --> 01:11:44,699 very much the dominant power and as I said before more than 1603 01:11:44,699 --> 01:11:47,733 and as I said before more than half of the world population is 1604 01:11:47,733 --> 01:11:48,767 half of the world population is completely outside of the 1605 01:11:48,767 --> 01:11:50,633 completely outside of the system, It’s not globalization 1606 01:11:50,633 --> 01:11:52,667 system, It’s not globalization right. It’s the west and the 1607 01:11:52,667 --> 01:11:54,933 right. It’s the west and the offshoot of the west. Uh 1608 01:11:54,933 --> 01:11:57,001 offshoot of the west. Uh there’s no China. There’s 1609 01:11:57,001 --> 01:11:58,600 there’s no China. There’s obviously no Soviet union and 1610 01:11:58,600 --> 01:12:01,066 obviously no Soviet union and the and all the Soviet block 1611 01:12:01,066 --> 01:12:02,867 the and all the Soviet block and India. Yes, India is there 1612 01:12:02,867 --> 01:12:06,967 and India. Yes, India is there but really uh on uh on on on 1613 01:12:06,967 --> 01:12:09,967 but really uh on uh on on on the. 1614 01:13:11,700 --> 01:13:14,300 On the rules of the game, but 1615 01:13:14,300 --> 01:13:16,933 On the rules of the game, but Geo politics is completely 1616 01:13:16,933 --> 01:13:18,299 Geo politics is completely changed, and can we have a 1617 01:13:18,299 --> 01:13:19,400 changed, and can we have a system? whether it’s the guts 1618 01:13:19,400 --> 01:13:23,333 system? whether it’s the guts or what is or whatever uh where 1619 01:13:23,333 --> 01:13:26,367 or what is or whatever uh where we have a China and the United 1620 01:13:26,367 --> 01:13:31,066 we have a China and the United States that are both within the 1621 01:13:31,267 --> 01:13:32,633 system, not US and the Soviet 1622 01:13:32,633 --> 01:13:34,299 system, not US and the Soviet union won inside and one 1623 01:13:34,299 --> 01:13:36,666 union won inside and one outside. Can we have a global 1624 01:13:36,666 --> 01:13:38,267 outside. Can we have a global system? whatever that global 1625 01:13:38,267 --> 01:13:43,467 system? whatever that global system shallow even shallow uh? 1626 01:14:14,767 --> 01:14:15,799 One or the other, I mean, I 1627 01:14:15,799 --> 01:14:21,234 One or the other, I mean, I think our job is to to to uh to 1628 01:14:21,234 --> 01:14:23,466 think our job is to to to uh to provide uh a an alternative 1629 01:14:23,466 --> 01:14:28,267 provide uh a an alternative that has a certain degree of 1630 01:14:28,267 --> 01:14:33,767 that has a certain degree of that. it keeps us from um vast 1631 01:14:33,767 --> 01:14:36,466 that. it keeps us from um vast between uh a future. That’s a 1632 01:14:36,466 --> 01:14:38,934 between uh a future. That’s a version of the past that has 1633 01:14:38,934 --> 01:14:41,000 version of the past that has outlived its usefulness and 1634 01:14:41,000 --> 01:14:44,201 outlived its usefulness and that cannot be uh uh replicate. 1635 01:14:44,201 --> 01:14:46,000 that cannot be uh uh replicate. Or a doomsday scenario which 1636 01:14:46,000 --> 01:14:47,700 Or a doomsday scenario which you know we don’t want to have 1637 01:14:47,700 --> 01:14:50,866 you know we don’t want to have so I think what I you know do 1638 01:14:50,866 --> 01:14:55,234 so I think what I you know do do do I feel confident that the 1639 01:14:55,234 --> 01:14:57,834 do do I feel confident that the dispute can be managed in a way 1640 01:14:57,834 --> 01:14:59,500 dispute can be managed in a way that I have very briefly 1641 01:14:59,500 --> 01:15:02,700 that I have very briefly sketched out. Do I think that 1642 01:15:02,700 --> 01:15:07,234 sketched out. Do I think that um uh that uh the US China uh 1643 01:15:07,234 --> 01:15:09,800 um uh that uh the US China uh geopolitical conflict and 1644 01:15:09,800 --> 01:15:11,434 geopolitical conflict and strategic competition is not 1645 01:15:11,434 --> 01:15:16,000 strategic competition is not going to spill over into. 1646 01:15:35,867 --> 01:15:36,634 Futures and there are futures 1647 01:15:36,634 --> 01:15:39,000 Futures and there are futures where I can envision that would 1648 01:15:39,000 --> 01:15:41,267 where I can envision that would benefit the US, Europe and 1649 01:15:41,267 --> 01:15:43,201 benefit the US, Europe and China for somewhat different 1650 01:15:43,201 --> 01:15:44,434 China for somewhat different reasons and therefore that they 1651 01:15:44,434 --> 01:15:47,167 reasons and therefore that they have long-term interests in 1652 01:15:47,167 --> 01:15:49,333 have long-term interests in making such a set of 1653 01:15:49,333 --> 01:15:51,401 making such a set of arrangements work, I think 1654 01:15:51,401 --> 01:15:53,399 arrangements work, I think unlike the Soviet Union, the 1655 01:15:53,399 --> 01:15:56,201 unlike the Soviet Union, the former uniting China is much 1656 01:15:56,201 --> 01:15:57,801 former uniting China is much more interested uh on the 1657 01:15:57,801 --> 01:15:59,533 more interested uh on the economic side of the global 1658 01:15:59,533 --> 01:16:00,567 economic side of the global economic order because 1659 01:16:00,567 --> 01:16:01,300 economic order because obviously it’s much more 1660 01:16:01,300 --> 01:16:01,967 obviously it’s much more integrated into the world 1661 01:16:01,967 --> 01:16:04,900 integrated into the world economy that so. You ever was 1662 01:16:04,900 --> 01:16:08,567 economy that so. You ever was um so actually um uh and and 1663 01:16:08,567 --> 01:16:11,301 um so actually um uh and and when I use the term peaceful 1664 01:16:11,301 --> 01:16:14,900 when I use the term peaceful coexistence the analogy is 1665 01:16:14,900 --> 01:16:18,834 coexistence the analogy is precisely that in the political 1666 01:16:18,834 --> 01:16:21,767 precisely that in the political strategic time man uh that what 1667 01:16:21,767 --> 01:16:24,533 strategic time man uh that what enabled the United States and 1668 01:16:24,533 --> 01:16:27,734 enabled the United States and Soviet union uh what prevented 1669 01:16:27,734 --> 01:16:29,967 Soviet union uh what prevented them from going into a nuclear 1670 01:16:29,967 --> 01:16:31,500 them from going into a nuclear war is a mutual recognition 1671 01:16:31,500 --> 01:16:34,233 war is a mutual recognition that. that you know. A part of 1672 01:16:34,233 --> 01:16:36,667 that. that you know. A part of the United States that um you 1673 01:16:36,667 --> 01:16:38,734 the United States that um you know the Soviet the regime in 1674 01:16:38,734 --> 01:16:41,000 know the Soviet the regime in Moscow would not disappear 1675 01:16:41,000 --> 01:16:41,600 Moscow would not disappear anytime soon that they were 1676 01:16:41,600 --> 01:16:43,801 anytime soon that they were there to last and on the part 1677 01:16:43,801 --> 01:16:45,400 there to last and on the part of the Soviet Union that the 1678 01:16:45,400 --> 01:16:46,733 of the Soviet Union that the United States was not going to 1679 01:16:46,733 --> 01:16:48,000 United States was not going to the Communist Revolution any 1680 01:16:48,000 --> 01:16:49,267 the Communist Revolution any anytime soon um so once you 1681 01:16:49,267 --> 01:16:50,767 anytime soon um so once you began to recognize that these 1682 01:16:50,767 --> 01:16:52,900 began to recognize that these were two very different 1683 01:16:52,900 --> 01:16:56,733 were two very different political systems um that uh 1684 01:16:56,733 --> 01:16:58,834 political systems um that uh that you then you know operated 1685 01:16:58,834 --> 01:16:59,866 that you then you know operated against that constraint. It 1686 01:16:59,866 --> 01:17:01,466 against that constraint. It doesn’t mean that the cold war 1687 01:17:01,466 --> 01:17:03,400 doesn’t mean that the cold war between the two countries 1688 01:17:03,400 --> 01:17:06,833 between the two countries politically as. Was you know 1689 01:17:06,833 --> 01:17:08,433 politically as. Was you know harmonious? I mean they they 1690 01:17:08,433 --> 01:17:09,899 harmonious? I mean they they engage in all kinds of proxy 1691 01:17:09,899 --> 01:17:12,534 engage in all kinds of proxy wars all over the world uh but 1692 01:17:12,534 --> 01:17:13,967 wars all over the world uh but we don’t have the main managed 1693 01:17:13,967 --> 01:17:15,833 we don’t have the main managed to avoid the key thing we 1694 01:17:15,833 --> 01:17:17,734 to avoid the key thing we avoided a nuclear war the 1695 01:17:17,734 --> 01:17:18,867 avoided a nuclear war the analogy with on the economic 1696 01:17:18,867 --> 01:17:21,634 analogy with on the economic dimension uh is that United 1697 01:17:21,634 --> 01:17:22,867 dimension uh is that United States and the West have to 1698 01:17:22,867 --> 01:17:25,333 States and the West have to recognize that the Chinese 1699 01:17:25,333 --> 01:17:26,834 recognize that the Chinese economic system is very 1700 01:17:26,834 --> 01:17:29,201 economic system is very different and uh will remain 1701 01:17:29,201 --> 01:17:32,167 different and uh will remain different um and therefore the 1702 01:17:32,167 --> 01:17:36,701 different um and therefore the kind of trade. In terms of 1703 01:17:36,701 --> 01:17:39,434 kind of trade. In terms of common set of rules that was 1704 01:17:39,434 --> 01:17:41,234 common set of rules that was that the WTO regime was 1705 01:17:41,234 --> 01:17:43,200 that the WTO regime was predicated on and if I 1706 01:17:43,200 --> 01:17:44,300 predicated on and if I understood correctly your 1707 01:17:44,300 --> 01:17:47,333 understood correctly your summary of your work with 1708 01:17:47,333 --> 01:17:51,434 summary of your work with arthritis is predicated on um 1709 01:17:51,434 --> 01:17:55,367 arthritis is predicated on um is um is not is not a feasible 1710 01:17:55,367 --> 01:17:58,800 is um is not is not a feasible uh it it it presumes too much 1711 01:17:58,800 --> 01:18:00,666 uh it it it presumes too much convergence uh in the 1712 01:18:00,666 --> 01:18:03,034 convergence uh in the management of the economies in 1713 01:18:03,034 --> 01:18:04,800 management of the economies in terms of the rules on state 1714 01:18:04,800 --> 01:18:08,267 terms of the rules on state ownership um uh um subs. 1715 01:18:08,267 --> 01:18:09,134 ownership um uh um subs. Intellectual property rights 1716 01:18:09,134 --> 01:18:10,000 Intellectual property rights and industrial policies and so 1717 01:18:10,000 --> 01:18:12,266 and industrial policies and so forth so once we realize that 1718 01:18:12,266 --> 01:18:13,801 forth so once we realize that that converge isn’t going to 1719 01:18:13,801 --> 01:18:16,366 that converge isn’t going to happen, the question is can we 1720 01:18:16,366 --> 01:18:18,733 happen, the question is can we still make a world? you know 1721 01:18:18,733 --> 01:18:20,533 still make a world? you know that’s reaps significant amount 1722 01:18:20,533 --> 01:18:22,833 that’s reaps significant amount of gains of trade um uh but you 1723 01:18:22,833 --> 01:18:24,567 of gains of trade um uh but you know it’s still less stable 1724 01:18:24,567 --> 01:18:26,833 know it’s still less stable order and I think I appealing 1725 01:18:26,833 --> 01:18:27,800 order and I think I appealing down to the Brett was regime 1726 01:18:27,800 --> 01:18:29,899 down to the Brett was regime because that was a version of 1727 01:18:29,899 --> 01:18:32,466 because that was a version of in order like that. uh you say 1728 01:18:32,466 --> 01:18:33,866 in order like that. uh you say that you know the most of the 1729 01:18:33,866 --> 01:18:35,500 that you know the most of the world wasn’t included in there, 1730 01:18:35,500 --> 01:18:36,533 world wasn’t included in there, but that’s not quite true. I 1731 01:18:36,533 --> 01:18:39,700 but that’s not quite true. I mean you know more countries. 1732 01:18:39,700 --> 01:18:42,533 mean you know more countries. More rapidly um under Bretton 1733 01:18:42,533 --> 01:18:46,600 More rapidly um under Bretton Woods uh then under post 1990 1734 01:18:46,600 --> 01:18:48,400 Woods uh then under post 1990 globalization, the GX chief 1735 01:18:48,400 --> 01:18:50,400 globalization, the GX chief exception to that is China and 1736 01:18:50,400 --> 01:18:52,333 exception to that is China and how they treat them in terms of 1737 01:18:52,333 --> 01:18:54,800 how they treat them in terms of the weights of population. Uh 1738 01:18:54,800 --> 01:18:57,233 the weights of population. Uh yeah as a good example of trade 1739 01:18:57,233 --> 01:18:58,633 yeah as a good example of trade integration or or integration 1740 01:18:58,633 --> 01:19:00,600 integration or or integration of financial systems, Neither 1741 01:19:00,600 --> 01:19:03,800 of financial systems, Neither China nor India played the 1742 01:19:03,800 --> 01:19:05,334 China nor India played the globalization by the post 1743 01:19:05,334 --> 01:19:06,767 globalization by the post ninety conception of what they 1744 01:19:06,767 --> 01:19:10,566 ninety conception of what they were supposed to be. 1745 01:19:37,633 --> 01:19:40,267 Terms of there own economic 1746 01:19:40,267 --> 01:19:41,766 Terms of there own economic policies, which is basically 1747 01:19:41,766 --> 01:19:43,266 policies, which is basically 80% of their success, is their 1748 01:19:43,266 --> 01:19:45,334 80% of their success, is their own economic policies. Now they 1749 01:19:45,334 --> 01:19:48,334 own economic policies. Now they were they were Brett Woods um 1750 01:19:48,334 --> 01:19:50,667 were they were Brett Woods um so I think even the chiefs 1751 01:19:50,667 --> 01:19:52,434 so I think even the chiefs successes of the post 1990 1752 01:19:52,434 --> 01:19:53,900 successes of the post 1990 order uh are actually grounded 1753 01:19:53,900 --> 01:19:55,400 order uh are actually grounded in a very different 1754 01:19:55,400 --> 01:19:57,234 in a very different understanding of what those 1755 01:19:57,234 --> 01:20:00,666 understanding of what those rules are to be. Alright, let’s 1756 01:20:00,666 --> 01:20:03,033 rules are to be. Alright, let’s let’s agree to disagree on on 1757 01:20:03,033 --> 01:20:04,333 let’s agree to disagree on on that uh on that point, but I 1758 01:20:04,333 --> 01:20:05,966 that uh on that point, but I think we we very much agree and 1759 01:20:05,966 --> 01:20:08,333 think we we very much agree and I very much agree with you that 1760 01:20:08,333 --> 01:20:11,267 I very much agree with you that the issue of uh peaceful 1761 01:20:11,267 --> 01:20:13,800 the issue of uh peaceful co-existence between China and 1762 01:20:13,800 --> 01:20:15,733 co-existence between China and the United States, Europe and 1763 01:20:15,733 --> 01:20:17,800 the United States, Europe and the world in general is is 1764 01:20:17,800 --> 01:20:20,701 the world in general is is really the the major topic uh 1765 01:20:20,701 --> 01:20:23,334 really the the major topic uh of the uh of the next decades 1766 01:20:23,334 --> 01:20:25,000 of the uh of the next decades of today and of the next 1767 01:20:25,000 --> 01:20:28,167 of today and of the next decades and uh how to reconcile 1768 01:20:28,167 --> 01:20:30,867 decades and uh how to reconcile uh the economic interest and 1769 01:20:30,867 --> 01:20:32,799 uh the economic interest and the geopolitical interests and 1770 01:20:32,799 --> 01:20:37,200 the geopolitical interests and indeed find. But maybe a narrow 1771 01:20:37,200 --> 01:20:39,267 indeed find. But maybe a narrow part uh that will avoid the 1772 01:20:39,267 --> 01:20:41,834 part uh that will avoid the pitfalls that you have well 1773 01:20:41,834 --> 01:20:44,200 pitfalls that you have well painted for us and you know 1774 01:20:44,200 --> 01:20:48,401 painted for us and you know seek this more harmonious 1775 01:20:48,401 --> 01:20:49,933 seek this more harmonious future uh harmonious in 1776 01:20:49,933 --> 01:20:52,234 future uh harmonious in political terms and harmonious 1777 01:20:52,234 --> 01:20:54,834 political terms and harmonious in uh in uh economic terms is 1778 01:20:54,834 --> 01:20:57,600 in uh in uh economic terms is indeed uh what all of us need 1779 01:20:57,600 --> 01:20:59,467 indeed uh what all of us need to work and I’m very grateful 1780 01:20:59,467 --> 01:21:02,000 to work and I’m very grateful for all the work that you’re 1781 01:21:02,000 --> 01:21:03,600 for all the work that you’re doing in this uh in this space 1782 01:21:03,600 --> 01:21:07,933 doing in this uh in this space and for the time that you de.