1 00:00:30,933 --> 00:00:34,234 That uh I’m a senior research 2 00:00:34,234 --> 00:00:36,933 That uh I’m a senior research fellow and I’m going to 3 00:00:36,933 --> 00:00:39,767 fellow and I’m going to introduce you to this wonderful 4 00:00:39,767 --> 00:00:42,866 introduce you to this wonderful panel to discuss something as 5 00:00:42,866 --> 00:00:45,200 panel to discuss something as important as the restructuring 6 00:00:45,200 --> 00:00:47,966 important as the restructuring after the death over that is 7 00:00:47,966 --> 00:00:49,400 after the death over that is probably here with us to stay 8 00:00:49,400 --> 00:00:54,434 probably here with us to stay in the light of covert nineteen 9 00:00:54,434 --> 00:00:55,733 in the light of covert nineteen so the time is composed of 10 00:00:55,733 --> 00:00:58,700 so the time is composed of three speakers. Anna Professor 11 00:00:58,700 --> 00:01:03,500 three speakers. Anna Professor of law on uh at George 12 00:01:03,500 --> 00:01:04,467 of law on uh at George Georgetown University Law 13 00:01:04,467 --> 00:01:06,966 Georgetown University Law Center. It’s about materials 14 00:01:06,966 --> 00:01:10,934 Center. It’s about materials and member of the board of but 15 00:01:10,934 --> 00:01:13,266 and member of the board of but most importantly, managing 16 00:01:13,266 --> 00:01:16,600 most importantly, managing director at BlackRock at Man is 17 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:18,867 director at BlackRock at Man is also a professor at Princeton 18 00:01:18,867 --> 00:01:21,134 also a professor at Princeton University and we’re going to 19 00:01:21,134 --> 00:01:24,834 University and we’re going to start right away with this 20 00:01:24,834 --> 00:01:27,067 start right away with this wonderful panel so bare with 21 00:01:27,067 --> 00:01:32,133 wonderful panel so bare with us. Here you go Um I hear the 22 00:01:32,133 --> 00:01:33,867 us. Here you go Um I hear the music I guess that’s not a 23 00:01:33,867 --> 00:01:35,766 music I guess that’s not a problem. Hope I’m the only one 24 00:01:35,766 --> 00:01:37,867 problem. Hope I’m the only one listening to this music and I 25 00:01:37,867 --> 00:01:40,000 listening to this music and I hope my speakers come bear with 26 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,800 hope my speakers come bear with it and start talking about this 27 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:44,000 it and start talking about this debt overhang over the pass the 28 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:47,866 debt overhang over the pass the word to at if I know you’ve 29 00:01:47,866 --> 00:01:49,533 word to at if I know you’ve been dealing with this issue 30 00:01:49,533 --> 00:01:51,834 been dealing with this issue for a long time and you can 31 00:01:51,834 --> 00:01:53,766 for a long time and you can enlighten us with what is 32 00:01:53,766 --> 00:01:55,200 enlighten us with what is really history of that overhand 33 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,267 really history of that overhand and that has been a while we’re 34 00:01:57,267 --> 00:02:00,466 and that has been a while we’re going to have much. In in in a 35 00:02:00,466 --> 00:02:03,734 going to have much. In in in a few months, if not less, but we 36 00:02:03,734 --> 00:02:07,000 few months, if not less, but we want to talk about. 37 00:02:07,867 --> 00:02:11,967 Um from us and to a brutal for 38 00:02:11,967 --> 00:02:14,833 Um from us and to a brutal for uh for having me so when we 39 00:02:14,833 --> 00:02:17,301 uh for having me so when we think of uh questions like uh 40 00:02:17,301 --> 00:02:18,300 think of uh questions like uh that overhang on that 41 00:02:18,300 --> 00:02:19,000 that overhang on that restructuring, especially in 42 00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:21,199 restructuring, especially in the context of developing 43 00:02:21,199 --> 00:02:22,934 the context of developing countries, it’s useful to start 44 00:02:22,934 --> 00:02:24,100 countries, it’s useful to start with what has been the 45 00:02:24,100 --> 00:02:27,034 with what has been the conventional wisdom uh broadly 46 00:02:27,034 --> 00:02:28,733 conventional wisdom uh broadly speaking in terms of advice 47 00:02:28,733 --> 00:02:30,667 speaking in terms of advice given to emerging markets and 48 00:02:30,667 --> 00:02:33,300 given to emerging markets and really, that advice has been to 49 00:02:33,300 --> 00:02:35,967 really, that advice has been to focus on a flexible exchange. 50 00:02:35,967 --> 00:02:38,300 focus on a flexible exchange. It’s be an independent monthly 51 00:02:38,300 --> 00:02:42,633 It’s be an independent monthly policy. policy and see. 52 00:03:09,767 --> 00:03:11,467 Of the kind that you’re seeing 53 00:03:11,467 --> 00:03:14,701 Of the kind that you’re seeing now with nineteen uh so, for 54 00:03:14,701 --> 00:03:16,300 now with nineteen uh so, for example, if you’re an exchange 55 00:03:16,300 --> 00:03:18,634 example, if you’re an exchange is flexible, you can you know 56 00:03:18,634 --> 00:03:20,267 is flexible, you can you know uh your currency and devalue if 57 00:03:20,267 --> 00:03:22,834 uh your currency and devalue if it needs to to kind of ease the 58 00:03:22,834 --> 00:03:25,800 it needs to to kind of ease the pain so to speak um and so on, 59 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,267 pain so to speak um and so on, but the real problem comes in 60 00:03:28,267 --> 00:03:29,699 but the real problem comes in with the last piece of the 61 00:03:29,699 --> 00:03:31,534 with the last piece of the conventional wisdom, which is 62 00:03:31,534 --> 00:03:33,734 conventional wisdom, which is the financial openness of 63 00:03:33,734 --> 00:03:37,299 the financial openness of aspect that I talked about what 64 00:03:37,299 --> 00:03:39,700 aspect that I talked about what has happened in the past that 65 00:03:39,700 --> 00:03:41,701 has happened in the past that we have a lot of good data to 66 00:03:41,701 --> 00:03:46,967 we have a lot of good data to back this now is that. 67 00:08:50,734 --> 00:08:52,500 Was this all avoidable or 68 00:08:52,500 --> 00:08:54,733 Was this all avoidable or actually notable and it’s very 69 00:08:54,733 --> 00:08:55,634 actually notable and it’s very much depends on how much you 70 00:08:55,634 --> 00:08:57,433 much depends on how much you want to grow out of somebody’s 71 00:08:57,433 --> 00:08:59,500 want to grow out of somebody’s house savings and and how 72 00:08:59,500 --> 00:09:01,733 house savings and and how whether you measure your your 73 00:09:01,733 --> 00:09:03,767 whether you measure your your your your strength to be able 74 00:09:03,767 --> 00:09:05,400 your your strength to be able to pay that. But of course, 75 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:06,733 to pay that. But of course, nobody knew about this shock 76 00:09:06,733 --> 00:09:09,399 nobody knew about this shock that we are going through and 77 00:09:09,399 --> 00:09:11,333 that we are going through and that that in a way reminds me 78 00:09:11,333 --> 00:09:13,567 that that in a way reminds me of many other shops that nobody 79 00:09:13,567 --> 00:09:15,200 of many other shops that nobody could expect the Latin American 80 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:16,234 could expect the Latin American crisis in the 80s. You know all 81 00:09:16,234 --> 00:09:17,800 crisis in the 80s. You know all of the shows that make your day 82 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:19,467 of the shows that make your day over hand real, although you 83 00:09:19,467 --> 00:09:21,299 over hand real, although you may not have kind of expected 84 00:09:21,299 --> 00:09:24,367 may not have kind of expected it. So um I fully agree with 85 00:09:24,367 --> 00:09:27,333 it. So um I fully agree with the idea of inward looking um 86 00:09:27,333 --> 00:09:28,400 the idea of inward looking um behavior in the light of what 87 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,767 behavior in the light of what we have and that’s not good if 88 00:09:30,767 --> 00:09:32,267 we have and that’s not good if you owe money and that’s 89 00:09:32,267 --> 00:09:33,967 you owe money and that’s basically where we stand now, I 90 00:09:33,967 --> 00:09:36,333 basically where we stand now, I think I’m going to give the 91 00:09:36,333 --> 00:09:38,734 think I’m going to give the floor to Isabel who’s going to 92 00:09:38,734 --> 00:09:41,300 floor to Isabel who’s going to enlighten us with this idea of 93 00:09:41,300 --> 00:09:42,934 enlighten us with this idea of what about the others because 94 00:09:42,934 --> 00:09:44,234 what about the others because here we’re looking at the 95 00:09:44,234 --> 00:09:45,634 here we’re looking at the perspective of the country 96 00:09:45,634 --> 00:09:47,201 perspective of the country borrowing but what about the 97 00:09:47,201 --> 00:09:48,300 borrowing but what about the creditors and in particular 98 00:09:48,300 --> 00:09:49,800 creditors and in particular what about the private 99 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:53,933 what about the private creditors are they? If we if we 100 00:09:53,933 --> 00:09:56,267 creditors are they? If we if we knew that those countries may 101 00:09:56,267 --> 00:09:58,801 knew that those countries may eventually get into this debt 102 00:09:58,801 --> 00:10:00,299 eventually get into this debt over is this rational is about 103 00:10:00,299 --> 00:10:04,200 over is this rational is about what private creditors are 104 00:10:04,301 --> 00:10:06,066 doing. uh sure uh well, of 105 00:10:06,066 --> 00:10:07,534 doing. uh sure uh well, of course, private credit has come 106 00:10:07,534 --> 00:10:09,967 course, private credit has come in different flavors, but uh I 107 00:10:09,967 --> 00:10:12,700 in different flavors, but uh I would like to to stop by maybe 108 00:10:12,700 --> 00:10:13,967 would like to to stop by maybe um stepping back from the kind 109 00:10:13,967 --> 00:10:16,266 um stepping back from the kind of very di narratives that 110 00:10:16,266 --> 00:10:16,966 of very di narratives that we’ve been hearing for some 111 00:10:16,966 --> 00:10:19,366 we’ve been hearing for some time now around uh developing 112 00:10:19,366 --> 00:10:20,533 time now around uh developing countries I think clearly 113 00:10:20,533 --> 00:10:23,100 countries I think clearly they’ve. Very hard um many of 114 00:10:23,100 --> 00:10:25,266 they’ve. Very hard um many of them like like almost any 115 00:10:25,266 --> 00:10:26,733 them like like almost any country in the world, but in 116 00:10:26,733 --> 00:10:29,199 country in the world, but in many cases and that’s frankly a 117 00:10:29,199 --> 00:10:30,733 many cases and that’s frankly a departure from this kind of 118 00:10:30,733 --> 00:10:33,300 departure from this kind of sorry history that uh has uh uh 119 00:10:33,300 --> 00:10:34,800 sorry history that uh has uh uh a reminded us of in many cases, 120 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:36,700 a reminded us of in many cases, they’ve actually been able to 121 00:10:36,700 --> 00:10:38,767 they’ve actually been able to deploy account toy response, 122 00:10:38,767 --> 00:10:40,733 deploy account toy response, they’ve been able to do 123 00:10:40,733 --> 00:10:42,266 they’ve been able to do physical stimulus, they’ve been 124 00:10:42,266 --> 00:10:43,967 physical stimulus, they’ve been able to cut interest rates. 125 00:10:43,967 --> 00:10:45,533 able to cut interest rates. they’ve been able to do QE and 126 00:10:45,533 --> 00:10:47,767 they’ve been able to do QE and it’s over a dozen or so uh 127 00:10:47,767 --> 00:10:49,067 it’s over a dozen or so uh emerging markets central banks 128 00:10:49,067 --> 00:10:50,267 emerging markets central banks that have been able to do QE 129 00:10:50,267 --> 00:10:52,734 that have been able to do QE and their own sovereign. In 130 00:10:52,734 --> 00:10:54,334 and their own sovereign. In fact, to find themselves in 131 00:10:54,334 --> 00:10:55,933 fact, to find themselves in domestic markets in local 132 00:10:55,933 --> 00:10:58,333 domestic markets in local currency so it’s not great, 133 00:10:58,333 --> 00:10:59,700 currency so it’s not great, they haven’t had the same 134 00:10:59,700 --> 00:11:01,533 they haven’t had the same policies space as maybe you 135 00:11:01,533 --> 00:11:03,533 policies space as maybe you know, the United States or the 136 00:11:03,533 --> 00:11:04,967 know, the United States or the euro, or but in in many ways 137 00:11:04,967 --> 00:11:06,333 euro, or but in in many ways it’s a departure from pre 138 00:11:06,333 --> 00:11:09,334 it’s a departure from pre previous uh uh crisis 139 00:11:09,334 --> 00:11:11,199 previous uh uh crisis experience now from the market 140 00:11:11,199 --> 00:11:11,967 experience now from the market standpoint and admittedly 141 00:11:11,967 --> 00:11:13,467 standpoint and admittedly that’s not relevant to that 142 00:11:13,467 --> 00:11:14,400 that’s not relevant to that whole universe, but for those 143 00:11:14,400 --> 00:11:17,400 whole universe, but for those that have market access uh 144 00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:19,600 that have market access uh capital flows have returned 145 00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:21,267 capital flows have returned after to departing massively in 146 00:11:21,267 --> 00:11:22,766 after to departing massively in March and April, they’ve 147 00:11:22,766 --> 00:11:25,800 March and April, they’ve returned I currency. The MF 148 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:26,967 returned I currency. The MF index is now higher than it was 149 00:11:26,967 --> 00:11:29,434 index is now higher than it was at the start of March 150 00:11:29,434 --> 00:11:30,699 at the start of March investment grade uh spreads 151 00:11:30,699 --> 00:11:31,966 investment grade uh spreads them back where they were at 152 00:11:31,966 --> 00:11:33,933 them back where they were at the start of March and for the 153 00:11:33,933 --> 00:11:37,300 the start of March and for the the high yield uh the more 154 00:11:37,300 --> 00:11:38,733 the high yield uh the more frontier market, there’s still 155 00:11:38,733 --> 00:11:41,366 frontier market, there’s still 200 basis points or so above, 156 00:11:41,366 --> 00:11:41,900 200 basis points or so above, but because the base yields 157 00:11:41,900 --> 00:11:44,366 but because the base yields have fallen these countries can 158 00:11:44,366 --> 00:11:45,767 have fallen these countries can find themselves at the same 159 00:11:45,767 --> 00:11:47,967 find themselves at the same cost as earlier in the year, 160 00:11:47,967 --> 00:11:49,801 cost as earlier in the year, and that’s been in part helped 161 00:11:49,801 --> 00:11:51,799 and that’s been in part helped by the the bond purchases of of 162 00:11:51,799 --> 00:11:56,234 by the the bond purchases of of the the U. Bank and other major 163 00:11:56,234 --> 00:11:58,900 the the U. Bank and other major central banks that have pushed 164 00:11:58,900 --> 00:12:00,299 central banks that have pushed investors investors to look for 165 00:12:00,299 --> 00:12:01,766 investors investors to look for yield somewhere else that 166 00:12:01,766 --> 00:12:04,266 yield somewhere else that rational. Yeah, I would say so 167 00:12:04,266 --> 00:12:06,667 rational. Yeah, I would say so now that’s not to say this 168 00:12:06,667 --> 00:12:07,700 now that’s not to say this country don’t need help. Of 169 00:12:07,700 --> 00:12:09,767 country don’t need help. Of course they do many of them do 170 00:12:09,767 --> 00:12:11,500 course they do many of them do uh, but then you get into a 171 00:12:11,500 --> 00:12:14,766 uh, but then you get into a question of what’s the role of 172 00:12:14,766 --> 00:12:15,400 question of what’s the role of official development assistance 173 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,667 official development assistance so to speak and what’s the role 174 00:12:17,667 --> 00:12:19,500 so to speak and what’s the role of the private sector now 175 00:12:19,500 --> 00:12:21,333 of the private sector now historically you brought in the 176 00:12:21,333 --> 00:12:22,834 historically you brought in the private sector. That’s even a 177 00:12:22,834 --> 00:12:24,300 private sector. That’s even a wonderful acronym for it. PSI 178 00:12:24,300 --> 00:12:27,867 wonderful acronym for it. PSI Right I. Involvement once 179 00:12:27,867 --> 00:12:30,167 Right I. Involvement once countries reached a stage where 180 00:12:30,167 --> 00:12:32,866 countries reached a stage where that sustainability was in 181 00:12:32,866 --> 00:12:34,266 that sustainability was in question, and you need that 182 00:12:34,266 --> 00:12:37,434 question, and you need that restructuring uh to restore a 183 00:12:37,434 --> 00:12:38,967 restructuring uh to restore a growth prospect and we fully 184 00:12:38,967 --> 00:12:42,233 growth prospect and we fully support that but here in this 185 00:12:42,233 --> 00:12:44,667 support that but here in this crisis, there’s been another 186 00:12:44,667 --> 00:12:45,434 crisis, there’s been another innovation, which has been in 187 00:12:45,434 --> 00:12:48,767 innovation, which has been in the form of the um the SSI the 188 00:12:48,767 --> 00:12:50,367 the form of the um the SSI the uh the service suspension 189 00:12:50,367 --> 00:12:52,000 uh the service suspension Initiative of the Q twenty 190 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:56,167 Initiative of the Q twenty which tried to. to in a way. 191 00:12:56,167 --> 00:12:59,134 which tried to. to in a way. With help around that before 192 00:12:59,134 --> 00:13:00,534 With help around that before any debt sustainability issues 193 00:13:00,534 --> 00:13:03,900 any debt sustainability issues were actually materialized and 194 00:13:03,900 --> 00:13:06,167 were actually materialized and maybe that I was a smart way of 195 00:13:06,167 --> 00:13:07,600 maybe that I was a smart way of of freeing of liquidity for 196 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:09,500 of freeing of liquidity for this country, But I know that 197 00:13:09,500 --> 00:13:10,933 this country, But I know that there’s been some 198 00:13:10,933 --> 00:13:12,267 there’s been some disappointment in the official 199 00:13:12,267 --> 00:13:15,100 disappointment in the official factor that somehow the private 200 00:13:15,100 --> 00:13:17,234 factor that somehow the private sector private credits have not 201 00:13:17,234 --> 00:13:19,867 sector private credits have not participated. uh what’s what’s 202 00:13:19,867 --> 00:13:22,200 participated. uh what’s what’s important to note here is that 203 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:24,301 important to note here is that the countries themselves out of 204 00:13:24,301 --> 00:13:26,399 the countries themselves out of 76 or so eligible countries 205 00:13:26,399 --> 00:13:28,000 76 or so eligible countries about forty have requested uh 206 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:32,701 about forty have requested uh the benefits. That service 207 00:13:32,701 --> 00:13:33,534 the benefits. That service suspension zero have approached 208 00:13:33,534 --> 00:13:36,634 suspension zero have approached their private creditors and why 209 00:13:36,634 --> 00:13:38,367 their private creditors and why is that well, that is because 210 00:13:38,367 --> 00:13:39,667 is that well, that is because they did a cost-benefit 211 00:13:39,667 --> 00:13:42,400 they did a cost-benefit analysis and they realize that 212 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:44,734 analysis and they realize that the cost of asking for this um 213 00:13:44,734 --> 00:13:47,700 the cost of asking for this um uh debt relief even temporary 214 00:13:47,700 --> 00:13:49,334 uh debt relief even temporary was quite meaningful because in 215 00:13:49,334 --> 00:13:51,801 was quite meaningful because in an environment of market 216 00:13:51,801 --> 00:13:53,133 an environment of market borrowing, then you become 217 00:13:53,133 --> 00:13:55,967 borrowing, then you become subject to uh the agency you 218 00:13:55,967 --> 00:13:57,333 subject to uh the agency you want to preserve your market 219 00:13:57,333 --> 00:13:59,433 want to preserve your market access etcetera and so the 220 00:13:59,433 --> 00:14:01,767 access etcetera and so the costs pile up and. The 221 00:14:01,767 --> 00:14:02,567 costs pile up and. The countries that essentially 222 00:14:02,567 --> 00:14:04,633 countries that essentially hadn’t really lost market 223 00:14:04,633 --> 00:14:06,367 hadn’t really lost market access and really valued their 224 00:14:06,367 --> 00:14:07,534 access and really valued their long-term prospects to market 225 00:14:07,534 --> 00:14:08,966 long-term prospects to market access. They just thought no 226 00:14:08,966 --> 00:14:11,167 access. They just thought no we’re not at a point where 227 00:14:11,167 --> 00:14:13,733 we’re not at a point where where we where we wanna do this 228 00:14:13,733 --> 00:14:15,199 where we where we wanna do this now looking forward and again 229 00:14:15,199 --> 00:14:16,633 now looking forward and again there’s a lot of uncertainty we 230 00:14:16,633 --> 00:14:19,467 there’s a lot of uncertainty we don’t know how quickly the the 231 00:14:19,467 --> 00:14:20,900 don’t know how quickly the the pan they make is gonna be 232 00:14:20,900 --> 00:14:23,201 pan they make is gonna be contained um but our 233 00:14:23,201 --> 00:14:24,266 contained um but our expectation is that there’s 234 00:14:24,266 --> 00:14:25,733 expectation is that there’s only frankly a handful of 235 00:14:25,733 --> 00:14:27,233 only frankly a handful of countries that are either 236 00:14:27,233 --> 00:14:28,299 countries that are either already in the debt 237 00:14:28,299 --> 00:14:30,567 already in the debt sustainability. uh problem well 238 00:14:30,567 --> 00:14:33,734 sustainability. uh problem well a couple completed uh uh. 239 00:14:33,734 --> 00:14:35,200 a couple completed uh uh. Successfully and I will talk 240 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:36,667 Successfully and I will talk about that, but beyond that, 241 00:14:36,667 --> 00:14:37,600 about that, but beyond that, there’s a there’s a handful 242 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:40,266 there’s a there’s a handful more. maybe there will be dead 243 00:14:40,266 --> 00:14:41,733 more. maybe there will be dead restructuring and when that 244 00:14:41,733 --> 00:14:44,167 restructuring and when that happens um obviously different 245 00:14:44,167 --> 00:14:45,666 happens um obviously different private creditors have 246 00:14:45,666 --> 00:14:46,566 private creditors have different perspectives, but as 247 00:14:46,566 --> 00:14:48,900 different perspectives, but as far as black goes, we’re a 248 00:14:48,900 --> 00:14:51,234 far as black goes, we’re a long-term investor. We’re 249 00:14:51,234 --> 00:14:52,333 long-term investor. We’re long-term partner to this 250 00:14:52,333 --> 00:14:54,299 long-term partner to this country, the vast bulk of our 251 00:14:54,299 --> 00:14:56,167 country, the vast bulk of our exposures are in the form of 252 00:14:56,167 --> 00:14:57,000 exposures are in the form of passive holdings, which means 253 00:14:57,000 --> 00:14:58,267 passive holdings, which means we can never sell them as long 254 00:14:58,267 --> 00:14:59,533 we can never sell them as long as the countries that are in 255 00:14:59,533 --> 00:15:00,933 as the countries that are in the index. so we wanna try and 256 00:15:00,933 --> 00:15:02,833 the index. so we wanna try and do everything we can to restore 257 00:15:02,833 --> 00:15:05,434 do everything we can to restore the gross. Bikes of these 258 00:15:05,434 --> 00:15:07,267 the gross. Bikes of these countries, but at the same 259 00:15:07,267 --> 00:15:08,767 countries, but at the same time, we’re a fiduciary. What 260 00:15:08,767 --> 00:15:10,234 time, we’re a fiduciary. What does that mean? I know, 261 00:15:10,234 --> 00:15:11,867 does that mean? I know, sometimes people say, Oh, this 262 00:15:11,867 --> 00:15:13,433 sometimes people say, Oh, this is Aly, but it’s not a fake 263 00:15:13,433 --> 00:15:15,400 is Aly, but it’s not a fake leaf. The money is not our 264 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,467 leaf. The money is not our money. It’s the retirement 265 00:15:17,467 --> 00:15:19,600 money. It’s the retirement savings of millions of people 266 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:20,866 savings of millions of people around the world who are 267 00:15:20,866 --> 00:15:22,400 around the world who are counting on it for their 268 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:23,700 counting on it for their retirement and so we’re trying 269 00:15:23,700 --> 00:15:26,167 retirement and so we’re trying to balance that long-term 270 00:15:26,167 --> 00:15:27,533 to balance that long-term interest of the country with 271 00:15:27,533 --> 00:15:28,801 interest of the country with the long-term interest of the 272 00:15:28,801 --> 00:15:30,600 the long-term interest of the people who have um entrusted 273 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:32,000 people who have um entrusted their money to us. and that’s 274 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:33,666 their money to us. and that’s why you have a negotiation. but 275 00:15:33,666 --> 00:15:35,266 why you have a negotiation. but again when you follow, you 276 00:15:35,266 --> 00:15:37,034 again when you follow, you know, sound rules and you have 277 00:15:37,034 --> 00:15:37,966 know, sound rules and you have a debt sustainability analysis 278 00:15:37,966 --> 00:15:39,033 a debt sustainability analysis and you have a proper 279 00:15:39,033 --> 00:15:41,400 and you have a proper framework. In a policy 280 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:42,867 framework. In a policy framework to determine the 281 00:15:42,867 --> 00:15:46,400 framework to determine the resource envelope it all it all 282 00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:49,000 resource envelope it all it all works um so that what I would 283 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:49,734 works um so that what I would say on debt restructuring, but 284 00:15:49,734 --> 00:15:51,967 say on debt restructuring, but it doesn’t have to be all or 285 00:15:51,967 --> 00:15:53,133 it doesn’t have to be all or nothing in terms of private 286 00:15:53,133 --> 00:15:54,299 nothing in terms of private sector involvement and one 287 00:15:54,299 --> 00:15:55,967 sector involvement and one thing we’re actively working on 288 00:15:55,967 --> 00:15:57,167 thing we’re actively working on cuz we’re we’re convinced there 289 00:15:57,167 --> 00:15:59,367 cuz we’re we’re convinced there is uh investor appetite for 290 00:15:59,367 --> 00:16:01,467 is uh investor appetite for this developing a framework for 291 00:16:01,467 --> 00:16:02,334 this developing a framework for sustainable bonds. We’re 292 00:16:02,334 --> 00:16:04,833 sustainable bonds. We’re thinking the in the in the 293 00:16:04,833 --> 00:16:05,434 thinking the in the in the we’re not in the aftermath of 294 00:16:05,434 --> 00:16:07,266 we’re not in the aftermath of the pandemic. We’re still in 295 00:16:07,266 --> 00:16:09,067 the pandemic. We’re still in the middle of it, but there is 296 00:16:09,067 --> 00:16:11,400 the middle of it, but there is genuine. Uh appetite for 297 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,699 genuine. Uh appetite for sometimes of market based on 298 00:16:13,699 --> 00:16:15,500 sometimes of market based on that that has a social 299 00:16:15,500 --> 00:16:17,201 that that has a social component and that can be 300 00:16:17,201 --> 00:16:19,134 component and that can be another way of restoring market 301 00:16:19,134 --> 00:16:21,434 another way of restoring market access for countries either 302 00:16:21,434 --> 00:16:23,434 access for countries either post that restructuring or for 303 00:16:23,434 --> 00:16:24,201 post that restructuring or for those that there are 304 00:16:24,201 --> 00:16:25,966 those that there are temporarily shut out and again 305 00:16:25,966 --> 00:16:28,267 temporarily shut out and again that can be a way of preserving 306 00:16:28,267 --> 00:16:29,666 that can be a way of preserving the country’s long-term 307 00:16:29,666 --> 00:16:31,234 the country’s long-term interest, preserving the asset 308 00:16:31,234 --> 00:16:33,467 interest, preserving the asset class without doing collateral 309 00:16:33,467 --> 00:16:34,834 class without doing collateral damage and uh and frankly, just 310 00:16:34,834 --> 00:16:36,667 damage and uh and frankly, just you know keeping the private 311 00:16:36,667 --> 00:16:37,867 you know keeping the private sector engaged as a source of 312 00:16:37,867 --> 00:16:39,266 sector engaged as a source of financing in this country. 313 00:16:39,266 --> 00:16:42,299 financing in this country. While doing no harm so let me 314 00:16:42,299 --> 00:16:44,400 While doing no harm so let me leave it at that for now, thank 315 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:45,900 leave it at that for now, thank you Isabel. I think it was 316 00:16:45,900 --> 00:16:48,700 you Isabel. I think it was fascinating to listen to the 317 00:16:48,700 --> 00:16:55,801 fascinating to listen to the private sector um. Perspective 318 00:16:55,801 --> 00:16:58,834 private sector um. Perspective um and in particular the idea, 319 00:16:58,834 --> 00:17:01,667 um and in particular the idea, which is absolutely real, I 320 00:17:01,667 --> 00:17:04,300 which is absolutely real, I mean having worked on this 321 00:17:04,300 --> 00:17:06,634 mean having worked on this issues from the international 322 00:17:06,634 --> 00:17:08,233 issues from the international Organization Point of view you 323 00:17:08,233 --> 00:17:09,733 Organization Point of view you have already in the past uh 324 00:17:09,733 --> 00:17:12,200 have already in the past uh yourself in the past. It’s it’s 325 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:13,334 yourself in the past. It’s it’s interesting to see all of the 326 00:17:13,334 --> 00:17:14,867 interesting to see all of the perspectives there. I mean from 327 00:17:14,867 --> 00:17:18,734 perspectives there. I mean from the basically the the from the 328 00:17:18,734 --> 00:17:20,967 the basically the the from the IMF striking the deal if if 329 00:17:20,967 --> 00:17:25,267 IMF striking the deal if if involved um. And the country 330 00:17:25,267 --> 00:17:26,000 involved um. And the country and the private sector, but 331 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,200 and the private sector, but we’re missing now the official 332 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:31,000 we’re missing now the official creditors point of view of the 333 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:32,667 creditors point of view of the private sector, not willing to 334 00:17:32,667 --> 00:17:35,166 private sector, not willing to be involved because at the end 335 00:17:35,166 --> 00:17:37,801 be involved because at the end of the day um why would the 336 00:17:37,801 --> 00:17:39,500 of the day um why would the they agree on you know as they 337 00:17:39,500 --> 00:17:41,634 they agree on you know as they did at the G twenty or the 338 00:17:41,634 --> 00:17:43,500 did at the G twenty or the 20000000000 that relief, which 339 00:17:43,500 --> 00:17:46,699 20000000000 that relief, which was which was frankly, not a 340 00:17:46,699 --> 00:17:48,133 was which was frankly, not a real relief because it was so 341 00:17:48,133 --> 00:17:52,934 real relief because it was so short term and and also. Um you 342 00:17:52,934 --> 00:17:56,500 short term and and also. Um you know just just know that by all 343 00:17:56,500 --> 00:17:59,133 know just just know that by all means but still something how 344 00:17:59,133 --> 00:18:00,567 means but still something how would they take? Yeah that 345 00:18:00,567 --> 00:18:01,767 would they take? Yeah that others don’t follow you see 346 00:18:01,767 --> 00:18:04,333 others don’t follow you see what I mean, then if it was 347 00:18:04,333 --> 00:18:05,734 what I mean, then if it was needed, it wasn’t that needed 348 00:18:05,734 --> 00:18:06,999 needed, it wasn’t that needed for anybody, including the 349 00:18:06,999 --> 00:18:08,734 for anybody, including the public sector now playing the 350 00:18:08,734 --> 00:18:10,633 public sector now playing the you know the role of the public 351 00:18:10,633 --> 00:18:13,300 you know the role of the public sector um and I think that’s a 352 00:18:13,300 --> 00:18:14,900 sector um and I think that’s a very important question. I mean 353 00:18:14,900 --> 00:18:16,967 very important question. I mean how far to go with this this 354 00:18:16,967 --> 00:18:19,167 how far to go with this this difference in I give you market 355 00:18:19,167 --> 00:18:20,566 difference in I give you market access, but you know the public 356 00:18:20,566 --> 00:18:21,967 access, but you know the public sector can’t afford a 357 00:18:21,967 --> 00:18:24,467 sector can’t afford a reduction. Happens to you, It 358 00:18:24,467 --> 00:18:29,367 reduction. Happens to you, It is it’s very important as an 359 00:18:29,367 --> 00:18:30,799 is it’s very important as an issue, but we have a time to 360 00:18:30,799 --> 00:18:33,134 issue, but we have a time to discuss it later um I’m giving 361 00:18:33,134 --> 00:18:35,633 discuss it later um I’m giving the floor to to talk about 362 00:18:35,633 --> 00:18:38,200 the floor to to talk about specific cases from a legal 363 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,266 specific cases from a legal perspective and institutional 364 00:18:41,266 --> 00:18:42,766 perspective and institutional perspective, which will surely 365 00:18:42,766 --> 00:18:45,400 perspective, which will surely enrich the dialogue. Thank you. 366 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:47,800 enrich the dialogue. Thank you. Ana. So thank you for including 367 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:49,600 Ana. So thank you for including me and um it’s a privilege to 368 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:51,867 me and um it’s a privilege to be here. It’s also um dangerous 369 00:18:51,867 --> 00:18:56,234 be here. It’s also um dangerous to go after um to. Really 370 00:18:56,234 --> 00:18:59,967 to go after um to. Really thoughtful remarks because uh 371 00:18:59,967 --> 00:19:02,900 thoughtful remarks because uh as you said Alicia, we could 372 00:19:02,900 --> 00:19:05,234 as you said Alicia, we could just talk um for an hour about 373 00:19:05,234 --> 00:19:07,000 just talk um for an hour about what we just heard. So I think 374 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:08,567 what we just heard. So I think what I’m gonna do is react a 375 00:19:08,567 --> 00:19:10,266 what I’m gonna do is react a little bit to what I just heard 376 00:19:10,266 --> 00:19:13,434 little bit to what I just heard and then um moving to perhaps a 377 00:19:13,434 --> 00:19:18,167 and then um moving to perhaps a brief um uh note on Argentina. 378 00:19:18,167 --> 00:19:20,400 brief um uh note on Argentina. so I wanna start by saying I 379 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,933 so I wanna start by saying I agree with both Atif and um 380 00:19:23,933 --> 00:19:28,234 agree with both Atif and um Isabel. Isabel in the sense. 381 00:19:28,367 --> 00:19:31,300 Um the structural picture the 382 00:19:31,300 --> 00:19:35,166 Um the structural picture the long-term picture um does not 383 00:19:35,166 --> 00:19:38,767 long-term picture um does not look terribly bright um and in 384 00:19:38,767 --> 00:19:41,433 look terribly bright um and in the fall off in exports to fall 385 00:19:41,433 --> 00:19:42,767 the fall off in exports to fall off and FDI the fall off and 386 00:19:42,767 --> 00:19:43,967 off and FDI the fall off and remittances, I mean everything 387 00:19:43,967 --> 00:19:45,333 remittances, I mean everything in the double digits. if you 388 00:19:45,333 --> 00:19:49,466 in the double digits. if you look at the IMF updated um we 389 00:19:49,466 --> 00:19:53,234 look at the IMF updated um we all in uh June um and yes 390 00:19:53,234 --> 00:19:54,733 all in uh June um and yes there’s been stimulus even by 391 00:19:54,733 --> 00:19:56,467 there’s been stimulus even by merging markets and low-income 392 00:19:56,467 --> 00:19:59,733 merging markets and low-income countries. but compared to the. 393 00:19:59,733 --> 00:20:00,467 countries. but compared to the. Extraordinary measures 394 00:20:00,467 --> 00:20:03,700 Extraordinary measures undertaken by um major 395 00:20:03,700 --> 00:20:06,699 undertaken by um major economies It’s just it’s a and 396 00:20:06,699 --> 00:20:10,767 economies It’s just it’s a and so one question that I keep 397 00:20:10,767 --> 00:20:14,134 so one question that I keep struggling with um fearlessly 398 00:20:14,134 --> 00:20:16,500 struggling with um fearlessly is you know how much of this is 399 00:20:16,500 --> 00:20:18,734 is you know how much of this is just a function of what’s 400 00:20:18,734 --> 00:20:20,467 just a function of what’s happening in the large 401 00:20:20,467 --> 00:20:22,834 happening in the large economies and how much of this 402 00:20:22,834 --> 00:20:26,633 economies and how much of this there is sort of a um. it’s a 403 00:20:26,633 --> 00:20:28,533 there is sort of a um. it’s a very weird situation for low 404 00:20:28,533 --> 00:20:30,266 very weird situation for low income and middle income 405 00:20:30,266 --> 00:20:31,799 income and middle income countries because if things go 406 00:20:31,799 --> 00:20:35,800 countries because if things go down for um the In Europe and 407 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:39,233 down for um the In Europe and and other wealthy countries, 408 00:20:39,233 --> 00:20:40,634 and other wealthy countries, then they you know exports go 409 00:20:40,634 --> 00:20:43,234 then they you know exports go down for the poor countries if 410 00:20:43,234 --> 00:20:46,366 down for the poor countries if things go up for the um 411 00:20:46,366 --> 00:20:47,767 things go up for the um advanced economies will then 412 00:20:47,767 --> 00:20:50,166 advanced economies will then maybe the stimulus will go away 413 00:20:50,166 --> 00:20:51,800 maybe the stimulus will go away and then it’ll be harder for 414 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,000 and then it’ll be harder for the poor countries to borrow 415 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:55,366 the poor countries to borrow right. So so there’s AI think 416 00:20:55,366 --> 00:20:56,900 right. So so there’s AI think there’s an enormous amount of 417 00:20:56,900 --> 00:20:59,234 there’s an enormous amount of uncertainty and an enormous 418 00:20:59,234 --> 00:20:59,967 uncertainty and an enormous amount of and it’s a very 419 00:20:59,967 --> 00:21:03,533 amount of and it’s a very dynamic situation um and it 420 00:21:03,533 --> 00:21:05,099 dynamic situation um and it depends so much on weird things 421 00:21:05,099 --> 00:21:06,999 depends so much on weird things like science and policy 422 00:21:06,999 --> 00:21:07,967 like science and policy response and political 423 00:21:07,967 --> 00:21:11,267 response and political response. It’s awfully hard to 424 00:21:11,267 --> 00:21:12,767 response. It’s awfully hard to predict um where we’re going to 425 00:21:12,767 --> 00:21:15,400 predict um where we’re going to be in 6 months from now, what’s 426 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:16,767 be in 6 months from now, what’s different about the world today 427 00:21:16,767 --> 00:21:18,267 different about the world today is that we have much more 428 00:21:18,267 --> 00:21:20,767 is that we have much more header genius creditors um and 429 00:21:20,767 --> 00:21:23,333 header genius creditors um and very visibly so and I think 430 00:21:23,333 --> 00:21:25,733 very visibly so and I think Isabel certainly um mentioned 431 00:21:25,733 --> 00:21:28,366 Isabel certainly um mentioned this um a much wider range of 432 00:21:28,366 --> 00:21:30,133 this um a much wider range of debt instruments so in the 80s 433 00:21:30,133 --> 00:21:31,700 debt instruments so in the 80s we could talk meaningfully 434 00:21:31,700 --> 00:21:32,767 we could talk meaningfully about bank loans and in the 435 00:21:32,767 --> 00:21:34,200 about bank loans and in the late 90s we could talk about 436 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:36,567 late 90s we could talk about bonds now, it’s really all of 437 00:21:36,567 --> 00:21:39,500 bonds now, it’s really all of the above and then some. And 438 00:21:39,500 --> 00:21:41,633 the above and then some. And it’s a very dynamic picture so 439 00:21:41,633 --> 00:21:44,833 it’s a very dynamic picture so that’s predators um so if if 440 00:21:44,833 --> 00:21:47,733 that’s predators um so if if you saw a bond 20 years ago, um 441 00:21:47,733 --> 00:21:49,734 you saw a bond 20 years ago, um you could be reasonably sure 442 00:21:49,734 --> 00:21:51,266 you could be reasonably sure that it was in the hands of 25 443 00:21:51,266 --> 00:21:52,867 that it was in the hands of 25 years ago in the hands of a 444 00:21:52,867 --> 00:21:54,666 years ago in the hands of a fund um now it could be in the 445 00:21:54,666 --> 00:21:55,800 fund um now it could be in the hands of the sovereign fund. it 446 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,734 hands of the sovereign fund. it could be in the hands of an 447 00:21:57,734 --> 00:21:59,201 could be in the hands of an insurance company could be it 448 00:21:59,201 --> 00:21:59,934 insurance company could be it could be anybody and in 449 00:21:59,934 --> 00:22:03,334 could be anybody and in particular I think I wonder 450 00:22:03,334 --> 00:22:06,000 particular I think I wonder what it means when a government 451 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:07,767 what it means when a government holds a commercial dead 452 00:22:07,767 --> 00:22:08,833 holds a commercial dead instrument to tradable that 453 00:22:08,833 --> 00:22:10,133 instrument to tradable that instrument right. what kinds 454 00:22:10,133 --> 00:22:13,200 instrument right. what kinds of? You see the domestic 455 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:14,934 of? You see the domestic external distinction is also 456 00:22:14,934 --> 00:22:16,300 external distinction is also really important. I mean one of 457 00:22:16,300 --> 00:22:18,334 really important. I mean one of the things we saw is that um 458 00:22:18,334 --> 00:22:21,267 the things we saw is that um you know throughout the first 459 00:22:21,267 --> 00:22:22,733 you know throughout the first and actually into the second 460 00:22:22,733 --> 00:22:24,333 and actually into the second decade of the century um 461 00:22:24,333 --> 00:22:27,700 decade of the century um government shifted to domestic 462 00:22:27,700 --> 00:22:30,299 government shifted to domestic borrowing um local currency 463 00:22:30,299 --> 00:22:31,833 borrowing um local currency domestic markets for an 464 00:22:31,833 --> 00:22:32,600 domestic markets for an investors wanted to domestic 465 00:22:32,600 --> 00:22:33,466 investors wanted to domestic markets. One of the things that 466 00:22:33,466 --> 00:22:35,066 markets. One of the things that happened in the spring is a lot 467 00:22:35,066 --> 00:22:37,766 happened in the spring is a lot of that left very rapidly and a 468 00:22:37,766 --> 00:22:39,267 of that left very rapidly and a lot of the new market access a 469 00:22:39,267 --> 00:22:41,066 lot of the new market access a lot of the new financing is 470 00:22:41,066 --> 00:22:44,834 lot of the new financing is actually the kind. Currency um 471 00:22:44,834 --> 00:22:47,733 actually the kind. Currency um that that was talking about so 472 00:22:47,733 --> 00:22:50,866 that that was talking about so in terms of the risk profile uh 473 00:22:50,866 --> 00:22:52,667 in terms of the risk profile uh sort of market access, February 474 00:22:52,667 --> 00:22:54,800 sort of market access, February and market access September are 475 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,733 and market access September are not quite the same market 476 00:22:57,733 --> 00:23:02,500 not quite the same market access um DSI is new, but not 477 00:23:02,500 --> 00:23:04,000 access um DSI is new, but not new, right. I mean all of the 478 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,500 new, right. I mean all of the 80s was all about rollovers. It 479 00:23:06,500 --> 00:23:08,000 80s was all about rollovers. It was all about it was not we 480 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,733 was all about it was not we didn’t get to debt reduction 481 00:23:10,733 --> 00:23:14,667 didn’t get to debt reduction until 1989. The early 90s and 482 00:23:14,667 --> 00:23:21,466 until 1989. The early 90s and so um that’s certainly had um 483 00:23:21,466 --> 00:23:24,234 so um that’s certainly had um uh and you know that that’s not 484 00:23:24,234 --> 00:23:28,000 uh and you know that that’s not a new um move on the other hand 485 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,667 a new um move on the other hand what we don’t know is whether 486 00:23:30,667 --> 00:23:33,133 what we don’t know is whether we’re looking at another lost 487 00:23:33,133 --> 00:23:35,800 we’re looking at another lost decade or if we’re looking at a 488 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:37,434 decade or if we’re looking at a six-month patch right and 489 00:23:37,434 --> 00:23:38,834 six-month patch right and that’s certainly something that 490 00:23:38,834 --> 00:23:41,234 that’s certainly something that you know and I would leave to 491 00:23:41,234 --> 00:23:42,000 you know and I would leave to economist, but it sure looks 492 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:43,633 economist, but it sure looks like again if we’re looking at 493 00:23:43,633 --> 00:23:44,967 like again if we’re looking at double-digit declines and um 494 00:23:44,967 --> 00:23:47,666 double-digit declines and um all these metric. It’s kinda 495 00:23:47,666 --> 00:23:50,467 all these metric. It’s kinda hard to see how it’s 6 months 496 00:23:50,467 --> 00:23:53,567 hard to see how it’s 6 months temporary 497 00:23:53,667 --> 00:23:55,733 um and the role of the private 498 00:23:55,733 --> 00:23:59,400 um and the role of the private sector in DSI and more broadly 499 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,300 sector in DSI and more broadly um this idea of private sector 500 00:24:01,300 --> 00:24:02,334 um this idea of private sector Involvement. II have an 501 00:24:02,334 --> 00:24:03,934 Involvement. II have an enormous amount of sympathy 502 00:24:03,934 --> 00:24:05,867 enormous amount of sympathy here with well. It’s just you 503 00:24:05,867 --> 00:24:07,066 here with well. It’s just you know what are we looking at? 504 00:24:07,066 --> 00:24:08,099 know what are we looking at? Are we looking at rescheduling 505 00:24:08,099 --> 00:24:09,067 Are we looking at rescheduling or looking at restructuring? 506 00:24:09,067 --> 00:24:09,967 or looking at restructuring? How do we know who’s 507 00:24:09,967 --> 00:24:12,699 How do we know who’s sustainable? Nobody has an IMF 508 00:24:12,699 --> 00:24:14,800 sustainable? Nobody has an IMF program at the same time. We’re 509 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:19,334 program at the same time. We’re really having. Seen um you know 510 00:24:19,334 --> 00:24:20,767 really having. Seen um you know private creditors of any kind 511 00:24:20,767 --> 00:24:23,267 private creditors of any kind jumping up and down to um you 512 00:24:23,267 --> 00:24:25,199 jumping up and down to um you know uh either postpone or 513 00:24:25,199 --> 00:24:27,966 know uh either postpone or reduce the payments due to them 514 00:24:27,966 --> 00:24:30,333 reduce the payments due to them in these past cases and so 515 00:24:30,333 --> 00:24:31,667 in these past cases and so that’s um I think there’s an 516 00:24:31,667 --> 00:24:33,267 that’s um I think there’s an empirical question about what 517 00:24:33,267 --> 00:24:35,733 empirical question about what it means for countries to ask 518 00:24:35,733 --> 00:24:37,267 it means for countries to ask for debt relief, and I think 519 00:24:37,267 --> 00:24:38,234 for debt relief, and I think there are some studies coming 520 00:24:38,234 --> 00:24:39,900 there are some studies coming out about the impact on spreads 521 00:24:39,900 --> 00:24:43,967 out about the impact on spreads and the cost of borrowing but I 522 00:24:43,967 --> 00:24:45,534 and the cost of borrowing but I I’m not. I’m not sure I would 523 00:24:45,534 --> 00:24:47,467 I’m not. I’m not sure I would take the fact that half the 524 00:24:47,467 --> 00:24:49,367 take the fact that half the country is eligible for DSI 525 00:24:49,367 --> 00:24:50,667 country is eligible for DSI asking their private creditors 526 00:24:50,667 --> 00:24:54,466 asking their private creditors for debt relief. As any sort of 527 00:24:54,466 --> 00:24:55,833 for debt relief. As any sort of a deep meaningful indication of 528 00:24:55,833 --> 00:24:57,033 a deep meaningful indication of their preference, if you’re 529 00:24:57,033 --> 00:24:59,567 their preference, if you’re being told that you know you 530 00:24:59,567 --> 00:25:00,700 being told that you know you ask for debt relief and forget 531 00:25:00,700 --> 00:25:02,267 ask for debt relief and forget about market access of course, 532 00:25:02,267 --> 00:25:03,866 about market access of course, you’re not gonna do it and more 533 00:25:03,866 --> 00:25:06,299 you’re not gonna do it and more over the country’s never just 534 00:25:06,299 --> 00:25:07,833 over the country’s never just like private creditors and 535 00:25:07,833 --> 00:25:09,067 like private creditors and never voluntarily rushed to 536 00:25:09,067 --> 00:25:11,367 never voluntarily rushed to give up their um investors 537 00:25:11,367 --> 00:25:13,267 give up their um investors their shareholders money um 538 00:25:13,267 --> 00:25:15,767 their shareholders money um countries don’t rush 539 00:25:15,767 --> 00:25:19,766 countries don’t rush historically to uh ask for debt 540 00:25:19,766 --> 00:25:21,200 historically to uh ask for debt relief. I mean that too little 541 00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:22,534 relief. I mean that too little too late, it’s too late piece 542 00:25:22,534 --> 00:25:26,300 too late, it’s too late piece of it um holds. Both countries 543 00:25:26,300 --> 00:25:28,767 of it um holds. Both countries and for um firms and 544 00:25:28,767 --> 00:25:30,599 and for um firms and bankruptcy, so that’s a kind of 545 00:25:30,599 --> 00:25:34,000 bankruptcy, so that’s a kind of a perennial dynamic um another 546 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:35,533 a perennial dynamic um another point that I think comes up and 547 00:25:35,533 --> 00:25:37,866 point that I think comes up and that’s a constant and that’ll 548 00:25:37,866 --> 00:25:38,700 that’s a constant and that’ll take me to the last couple of 549 00:25:38,700 --> 00:25:40,767 take me to the last couple of points. I want to make is the 550 00:25:40,767 --> 00:25:42,600 points. I want to make is the idea of political 551 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:43,600 idea of political sustainability right and I 552 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,366 sustainability right and I think that that’s where the 553 00:25:46,366 --> 00:25:47,500 think that that’s where the private sector involvement and 554 00:25:47,500 --> 00:25:48,934 private sector involvement and you know whatever you wanna 555 00:25:48,934 --> 00:25:53,033 you know whatever you wanna call it right. the capability 556 00:25:53,033 --> 00:25:58,334 call it right. the capability or um whatever. Equity fairness 557 00:25:58,334 --> 00:26:01,266 or um whatever. Equity fairness um that comes from the concern 558 00:26:01,266 --> 00:26:03,701 um that comes from the concern that um if what if your 559 00:26:03,701 --> 00:26:06,800 that um if what if your taxpayers are seen as 560 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,466 taxpayers are seen as subsidizing payments to bond 561 00:26:08,466 --> 00:26:10,701 subsidizing payments to bond holders uh which are far 562 00:26:10,701 --> 00:26:12,233 holders uh which are far bigger, actually the biggest 563 00:26:12,233 --> 00:26:15,799 bigger, actually the biggest part of the um flows from these 564 00:26:15,799 --> 00:26:16,634 part of the um flows from these countries in the next couple of 565 00:26:16,634 --> 00:26:18,600 countries in the next couple of years, and then next is Chinese 566 00:26:18,600 --> 00:26:20,333 years, and then next is Chinese policy banks. It’s not going to 567 00:26:20,333 --> 00:26:21,934 policy banks. It’s not going to be a very popular political 568 00:26:21,934 --> 00:26:26,733 be a very popular political move so whether We’re 569 00:26:26,733 --> 00:26:27,733 move so whether We’re philosophically on board with 570 00:26:27,733 --> 00:26:29,199 philosophically on board with it or not sort of beside the 571 00:26:29,199 --> 00:26:30,667 it or not sort of beside the point and finally fiduciary 572 00:26:30,667 --> 00:26:32,000 point and finally fiduciary duty. Um you know that’s 573 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:33,500 duty. Um you know that’s something certainly near and 574 00:26:33,500 --> 00:26:34,633 something certainly near and dear to my heart fiduciary 575 00:26:34,633 --> 00:26:36,000 dear to my heart fiduciary duty. It just means acting in 576 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:37,233 duty. It just means acting in the best interest of your 577 00:26:37,233 --> 00:26:39,666 the best interest of your investors. It does not mean 578 00:26:39,666 --> 00:26:41,301 investors. It does not mean squeeze the last penny out of 579 00:26:41,301 --> 00:26:42,633 squeeze the last penny out of Argentina. There was a kind of 580 00:26:42,633 --> 00:26:45,201 Argentina. There was a kind of a wacky article in the New York 581 00:26:45,201 --> 00:26:47,767 a wacky article in the New York Times that seem to suggest that 582 00:26:47,767 --> 00:26:48,467 Times that seem to suggest that playing hard ball is somehow 583 00:26:48,467 --> 00:26:49,867 playing hard ball is somehow fiduciary duty. No right if you 584 00:26:49,867 --> 00:26:51,200 fiduciary duty. No right if you think the alternative is 585 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:51,867 think the alternative is sitting for 10 years in 586 00:26:51,867 --> 00:26:53,133 sitting for 10 years in default, it’s your fiduciary 587 00:26:53,133 --> 00:26:55,633 default, it’s your fiduciary duty. Into the deal, so what’s 588 00:26:55,633 --> 00:26:57,699 duty. Into the deal, so what’s in the best interest of your 589 00:26:57,699 --> 00:27:00,433 in the best interest of your investors, I think is a much 590 00:27:00,433 --> 00:27:02,000 investors, I think is a much richer concept than what’s 591 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,300 richer concept than what’s playing out in the media. so 592 00:27:04,300 --> 00:27:06,867 playing out in the media. so let’s close with um two things 593 00:27:06,867 --> 00:27:09,667 let’s close with um two things the uh kind of distributed 594 00:27:09,667 --> 00:27:12,867 the uh kind of distributed dimension of DSI and what 595 00:27:12,867 --> 00:27:16,233 dimension of DSI and what happened in Argentina um. 596 00:27:16,233 --> 00:27:17,934 happened in Argentina um. Almost half of DSI goes to 597 00:27:17,934 --> 00:27:19,600 Almost half of DSI goes to would go to two countries right 598 00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:23,734 would go to two countries right and go in Pakistan right. And 599 00:27:23,734 --> 00:27:25,600 and go in Pakistan right. And that is not an accident because 600 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:30,266 that is not an accident because of this header genius creditor 601 00:27:30,266 --> 00:27:33,499 of this header genius creditor um we have today um and because 602 00:27:33,499 --> 00:27:35,800 um we have today um and because of the fact that many creditors 603 00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:37,233 of the fact that many creditors have very concentrated 604 00:27:37,233 --> 00:27:40,200 have very concentrated exposures and many countries 605 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,367 exposures and many countries have only a couple of really 606 00:27:42,367 --> 00:27:46,266 have only a couple of really big creditors Any ad hoc 607 00:27:46,266 --> 00:27:46,933 big creditors Any ad hoc initiative ends up being 608 00:27:46,933 --> 00:27:50,466 initiative ends up being unbelievably inequitable It’s 609 00:27:50,466 --> 00:27:52,133 unbelievably inequitable It’s so if Angola basically has one 610 00:27:52,133 --> 00:27:55,766 so if Angola basically has one or two creditors if it happens. 611 00:27:55,766 --> 00:27:57,300 or two creditors if it happens. Benefit from a particular 612 00:27:57,300 --> 00:27:58,934 Benefit from a particular initiative where these two 613 00:27:58,934 --> 00:28:02,266 initiative where these two creditors and these the two the 614 00:28:02,266 --> 00:28:03,934 creditors and these the two the instruments and question are 615 00:28:03,934 --> 00:28:06,633 instruments and question are eligible good friend goal 616 00:28:06,633 --> 00:28:09,200 eligible good friend goal right, but for all the other 617 00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:10,367 right, but for all the other seventy some countries, it’s 618 00:28:10,367 --> 00:28:12,467 seventy some countries, it’s sort of a pit and I think this 619 00:28:12,467 --> 00:28:15,767 sort of a pit and I think this brings the coordination point 620 00:28:15,767 --> 00:28:17,234 brings the coordination point into high relief right. I think 621 00:28:17,234 --> 00:28:20,200 into high relief right. I think I agree uh very strongly with 622 00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,299 I agree uh very strongly with Isabel right we need 623 00:28:22,299 --> 00:28:24,333 Isabel right we need comprehensive coordinated 624 00:28:24,333 --> 00:28:25,934 comprehensive coordinated approach to address the 625 00:28:25,934 --> 00:28:27,467 approach to address the financing needs and the debt 626 00:28:27,467 --> 00:28:30,767 financing needs and the debt overhang. In these countries 627 00:28:30,767 --> 00:28:35,767 overhang. In these countries not ad hoc um partial uh 628 00:28:35,767 --> 00:28:38,767 not ad hoc um partial uh initiatives um to close an 629 00:28:38,767 --> 00:28:41,267 initiatives um to close an Argentina um they seem to have 630 00:28:41,267 --> 00:28:42,833 Argentina um they seem to have gotten more than 99% 631 00:28:42,833 --> 00:28:43,934 gotten more than 99% participation. The big 632 00:28:43,934 --> 00:28:45,267 participation. The big question. of course that’s 633 00:28:45,267 --> 00:28:49,967 question. of course that’s relevant broadly is um did the 634 00:28:49,967 --> 00:28:51,033 relevant broadly is um did the brand-new contractual 635 00:28:51,033 --> 00:28:53,199 brand-new contractual provisions make a difference? 636 00:28:53,199 --> 00:28:55,200 provisions make a difference? Did they work um and there’s an 637 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:56,334 Did they work um and there’s an enormous amount of confusion 638 00:28:56,334 --> 00:28:57,934 enormous amount of confusion about it and it can get pretty 639 00:28:57,934 --> 00:29:01,267 about it and it can get pretty wet but my takeaway is. Did but 640 00:29:01,267 --> 00:29:02,667 wet but my takeaway is. Did but not in the way people expected 641 00:29:02,667 --> 00:29:06,767 not in the way people expected so um Argentina and Ecuador 642 00:29:06,767 --> 00:29:08,300 so um Argentina and Ecuador both used the kinds of 643 00:29:08,300 --> 00:29:10,933 both used the kinds of collective actions that nobody 644 00:29:10,933 --> 00:29:13,234 collective actions that nobody expected them to use and then 645 00:29:13,234 --> 00:29:14,699 expected them to use and then they in the background there 646 00:29:14,699 --> 00:29:16,467 they in the background there was a threat of a much more 647 00:29:16,467 --> 00:29:20,234 was a threat of a much more robust and contentious um 648 00:29:20,234 --> 00:29:22,700 robust and contentious um intervention using um the 649 00:29:22,700 --> 00:29:24,234 intervention using um the so-called single limb 650 00:29:24,234 --> 00:29:26,700 so-called single limb aggregated collective action 651 00:29:26,700 --> 00:29:28,267 aggregated collective action clauses um the extent to which 652 00:29:28,267 --> 00:29:29,800 clauses um the extent to which that made the difference. I 653 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,933 that made the difference. I think we will continue to be 654 00:29:31,933 --> 00:29:33,400 think we will continue to be debated for a while, but I 655 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,733 debated for a while, but I certainly think. The overall 656 00:29:36,733 --> 00:29:39,366 certainly think. The overall framework um doesn’t mean 657 00:29:39,366 --> 00:29:40,700 framework um doesn’t mean contract governance is great 658 00:29:40,700 --> 00:29:42,467 contract governance is great and that that’s where we should 659 00:29:42,467 --> 00:29:43,899 and that that’s where we should stay. I think that will remain 660 00:29:43,899 --> 00:29:45,733 stay. I think that will remain an open question and I’ll leave 661 00:29:45,733 --> 00:29:47,700 an open question and I’ll leave it for the Q and a so thank 662 00:29:47,700 --> 00:29:50,367 it for the Q and a so thank you. Thank you. Anna Very 663 00:29:50,367 --> 00:29:53,000 you. Thank you. Anna Very interesting. I think um if I 664 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:54,167 interesting. I think um if I can wrap up a little bit where 665 00:29:54,167 --> 00:29:59,733 can wrap up a little bit where we stand, I think from a idea 666 00:29:59,733 --> 00:30:00,767 we stand, I think from a idea that you know, it’s it’s kind 667 00:30:00,767 --> 00:30:05,767 that you know, it’s it’s kind you get stuck with this and and 668 00:30:05,767 --> 00:30:07,400 you get stuck with this and and Quite agree, I have to say that 669 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,200 Quite agree, I have to say that I wrote a piece and the ability 670 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:14,366 I wrote a piece and the ability of him to do QE as it is about 671 00:30:14,366 --> 00:30:15,400 of him to do QE as it is about mentioning but frankly, 672 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,033 mentioning but frankly, speaking a very much worried 673 00:30:17,033 --> 00:30:19,834 speaking a very much worried that it’s all about the 674 00:30:19,834 --> 00:30:23,200 that it’s all about the benchmark, you know, given what 675 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:24,699 benchmark, you know, given what everybody else could do that 676 00:30:24,699 --> 00:30:26,433 everybody else could do that little cute they managed to do 677 00:30:26,433 --> 00:30:28,299 little cute they managed to do save the day, but it’s not 678 00:30:28,299 --> 00:30:29,833 save the day, but it’s not going to save the minute. We 679 00:30:29,833 --> 00:30:31,367 going to save the minute. We realize it’s not a six-month 680 00:30:31,367 --> 00:30:33,100 realize it’s not a six-month problem, so I quite frankly 681 00:30:33,100 --> 00:30:35,299 problem, so I quite frankly think that although it may. If 682 00:30:35,299 --> 00:30:38,733 think that although it may. If it’s different at it might 683 00:30:38,733 --> 00:30:40,633 it’s different at it might eventually not be different to 684 00:30:40,633 --> 00:30:41,699 eventually not be different to your point, you know, and it 685 00:30:41,699 --> 00:30:44,267 your point, you know, and it may be much more difficult to 686 00:30:44,267 --> 00:30:45,867 may be much more difficult to do any kind of technical down 687 00:30:45,867 --> 00:30:47,367 do any kind of technical down the road. it has worked, but it 688 00:30:47,367 --> 00:30:48,767 the road. it has worked, but it might not work right for you 689 00:30:48,767 --> 00:30:52,867 might not work right for you know for longer and that’s what 690 00:30:52,867 --> 00:30:54,666 know for longer and that’s what we’ve seen on the private 691 00:30:54,666 --> 00:30:56,667 we’ve seen on the private sector, meaning you know we’re 692 00:30:56,667 --> 00:30:58,900 sector, meaning you know we’re giving you additional market 693 00:30:58,900 --> 00:31:00,234 giving you additional market access no matter the 694 00:31:00,234 --> 00:31:01,834 access no matter the circumstances. It’s great. come 695 00:31:01,834 --> 00:31:03,367 circumstances. It’s great. come for my eventually will increase 696 00:31:03,367 --> 00:31:07,199 for my eventually will increase the problem down the road and 697 00:31:07,199 --> 00:31:09,734 the problem down the road and We actually have a long list of 698 00:31:09,734 --> 00:31:11,233 We actually have a long list of countries supposedly asking for 699 00:31:11,233 --> 00:31:13,900 countries supposedly asking for IMF assistance, but no 700 00:31:13,900 --> 00:31:14,400 IMF assistance, but no additional resources. So, in 701 00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,666 additional resources. So, in other words, there’s no kind of 702 00:31:16,666 --> 00:31:18,634 other words, there’s no kind of firewall if I may say uh for 703 00:31:18,634 --> 00:31:20,867 firewall if I may say uh for that, I’m here in Anna, you 704 00:31:20,867 --> 00:31:23,833 that, I’m here in Anna, you know to conclude on this is 705 00:31:23,833 --> 00:31:27,301 know to conclude on this is like basically uh anything we 706 00:31:27,301 --> 00:31:29,767 like basically uh anything we have so far, including the G 23 707 00:31:29,767 --> 00:31:31,667 have so far, including the G 23 that believe in any other thing 708 00:31:31,667 --> 00:31:35,234 that believe in any other thing we’ve seen being very patchy 709 00:31:35,234 --> 00:31:36,633 we’ve seen being very patchy partial and you know driven by 710 00:31:36,633 --> 00:31:37,800 partial and you know driven by a couple of countries 711 00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:38,400 a couple of countries basically, which may not 712 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:39,767 basically, which may not reflect the reality of 713 00:31:39,767 --> 00:31:41,066 reflect the reality of everybody else. So that’s where 714 00:31:41,066 --> 00:31:44,000 everybody else. So that’s where we stand. And here’s the thing 715 00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,434 we stand. And here’s the thing we are in the midst of 716 00:31:47,434 --> 00:31:48,700 we are in the midst of everything we’re saying is 717 00:31:48,700 --> 00:31:50,167 everything we’re saying is based on past experience 718 00:31:50,167 --> 00:31:51,834 based on past experience meaning before these graphs and 719 00:31:51,834 --> 00:31:55,266 meaning before these graphs and as you will say plummeted, you 720 00:31:55,266 --> 00:31:57,699 as you will say plummeted, you know everything we learned, in 721 00:31:57,699 --> 00:31:59,300 know everything we learned, in our large extent, frankly 722 00:31:59,300 --> 00:32:02,499 our large extent, frankly speaking was is is is a mirror 723 00:32:02,499 --> 00:32:06,234 speaking was is is is a mirror of the past of a much less 724 00:32:06,234 --> 00:32:10,500 of the past of a much less aggressive or you know um 725 00:32:10,500 --> 00:32:11,267 aggressive or you know um abrupt experience what can 726 00:32:11,267 --> 00:32:14,199 abrupt experience what can happen. Now, if if I push the 727 00:32:14,199 --> 00:32:16,867 happen. Now, if if I push the abdomen forward, what can 728 00:32:16,867 --> 00:32:18,634 abdomen forward, what can happen if you know, we don’t 729 00:32:18,634 --> 00:32:20,767 happen if you know, we don’t see a recovery in the developed 730 00:32:20,767 --> 00:32:23,233 see a recovery in the developed world. uh if this fiscal 731 00:32:23,233 --> 00:32:25,500 world. uh if this fiscal stimulate or mantras and 732 00:32:25,500 --> 00:32:27,733 stimulate or mantras and everything together, don’t work 733 00:32:27,733 --> 00:32:29,267 everything together, don’t work the way the markets are 734 00:32:29,267 --> 00:32:32,800 the way the markets are expecting them to work. Where 735 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,700 expecting them to work. Where do we stand with the E and 736 00:32:35,700 --> 00:32:38,301 do we stand with the E and Frontier market universe and 737 00:32:38,301 --> 00:32:39,967 Frontier market universe and that especially for those who 738 00:32:39,967 --> 00:32:41,466 that especially for those who are more indebted? What can be 739 00:32:41,466 --> 00:32:45,633 are more indebted? What can be done? I mean any imagine that 740 00:32:45,633 --> 00:32:47,767 done? I mean any imagine that idea of what can be done and I 741 00:32:47,767 --> 00:32:48,833 idea of what can be done and I think that’s the first thing 742 00:32:48,833 --> 00:32:50,000 think that’s the first thing I’d like to ask him because we 743 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,666 I’d like to ask him because we don’t have much time. I would 744 00:32:52,666 --> 00:32:55,199 don’t have much time. I would also include the difficulty of 745 00:32:55,199 --> 00:32:58,000 also include the difficulty of dealing with a new major 746 00:32:58,000 --> 00:32:58,700 dealing with a new major creditor and that’s not 747 00:32:58,700 --> 00:32:59,867 creditor and that’s not nobody’s fault. It is the fact 748 00:32:59,867 --> 00:33:02,234 nobody’s fault. It is the fact that it is new, you know it’s 749 00:33:02,234 --> 00:33:04,000 that it is new, you know it’s it’s not the same to deal with 750 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,366 it’s not the same to deal with credits who’ve been there 751 00:33:06,366 --> 00:33:10,334 credits who’ve been there before to know how to arrange a 752 00:33:10,334 --> 00:33:12,767 before to know how to arrange a solution and again. That we’ve 753 00:33:12,767 --> 00:33:14,466 solution and again. That we’ve been very successful in the 754 00:33:14,466 --> 00:33:17,267 been very successful in the past, but this time around made 755 00:33:17,267 --> 00:33:19,300 past, but this time around made your creditor is a newcomer to 756 00:33:19,300 --> 00:33:22,267 your creditor is a newcomer to the discussion. How can that 757 00:33:22,267 --> 00:33:24,667 the discussion. How can that how difficult or how much more 758 00:33:24,667 --> 00:33:27,267 how difficult or how much more difficult than this be given 759 00:33:27,267 --> 00:33:30,201 difficult than this be given the circumstances? um and and 760 00:33:30,201 --> 00:33:31,966 the circumstances? um and and also perhaps if I may add and I 761 00:33:31,966 --> 00:33:34,367 also perhaps if I may add and I don’t want to be hypocritical, 762 00:33:34,367 --> 00:33:35,767 don’t want to be hypocritical, the fact that not being in a 763 00:33:35,767 --> 00:33:37,334 the fact that not being in a market economy, you know 764 00:33:37,334 --> 00:33:39,367 market economy, you know whatever we’re discussing about 765 00:33:39,367 --> 00:33:41,199 whatever we’re discussing about private sector versus official 766 00:33:41,199 --> 00:33:44,466 private sector versus official sect. Might get a blurred so on 767 00:33:44,466 --> 00:33:45,867 sect. Might get a blurred so on that note, I’d like to hear you 768 00:33:45,867 --> 00:33:47,667 that note, I’d like to hear you know everybody’s response to 769 00:33:47,667 --> 00:33:49,666 know everybody’s response to everybody else or any comments 770 00:33:49,666 --> 00:33:53,333 everybody else or any comments on the future, plus this idea 771 00:33:53,333 --> 00:33:55,299 on the future, plus this idea of a new elephant in the room 772 00:33:55,299 --> 00:33:59,133 of a new elephant in the room and in this very drastically 773 00:33:59,133 --> 00:34:01,767 and in this very drastically different feature um just that 774 00:34:01,767 --> 00:34:06,733 different feature um just that restructuring after nineteen so 775 00:34:06,733 --> 00:34:07,367 restructuring after nineteen so uh you were first, you were 776 00:34:07,367 --> 00:34:09,500 uh you were first, you were very kind with your time. Maybe 777 00:34:09,500 --> 00:34:11,367 very kind with your time. Maybe we you know we take you again 778 00:34:11,367 --> 00:34:14,000 we you know we take you again back to the stage and very 779 00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:17,533 back to the stage and very happy. I hear your opinions. 780 00:34:17,533 --> 00:34:20,000 happy. I hear your opinions. Thank you and Ali. let me try 781 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,799 Thank you and Ali. let me try to respond to your question um 782 00:34:22,799 --> 00:34:25,267 to respond to your question um by focusing on again, I’ll go 783 00:34:25,267 --> 00:34:26,934 by focusing on again, I’ll go back to. I think there’s a lot 784 00:34:26,934 --> 00:34:28,400 back to. I think there’s a lot we have learned from the last 785 00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:32,300 we have learned from the last 2030 40 years um and one very 786 00:34:32,300 --> 00:34:34,800 2030 40 years um and one very important lesson is that credit 787 00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,833 important lesson is that credit is like a two a knife if you 788 00:34:38,833 --> 00:34:41,334 is like a two a knife if you will um it, there is a useful 789 00:34:41,334 --> 00:34:42,467 will um it, there is a useful edge of this knife and you can 790 00:34:42,467 --> 00:34:47,167 edge of this knife and you can use that edge to treat. 791 00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:26,967 The sort of the bad edge of the 792 00:37:26,967 --> 00:37:29,367 The sort of the bad edge of the of the credit market so again 793 00:37:29,367 --> 00:37:30,133 of the credit market so again coming back to your question. I 794 00:37:30,133 --> 00:37:31,434 coming back to your question. I think once again, I would say, 795 00:37:31,434 --> 00:37:32,400 think once again, I would say, look, it’s very important that 796 00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:33,767 look, it’s very important that we are very cognizant of this 797 00:37:33,767 --> 00:37:36,767 we are very cognizant of this two. for that we are dealing 798 00:37:36,767 --> 00:37:37,833 two. for that we are dealing with and we need to plant one 799 00:37:37,833 --> 00:37:40,200 with and we need to plant one of the edges and the way you do 800 00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:41,967 of the edges and the way you do that is first internally 801 00:37:41,967 --> 00:37:43,900 that is first internally through the right macro 802 00:37:43,900 --> 00:37:45,967 through the right macro credential regulations They 803 00:37:45,967 --> 00:37:47,899 credential regulations They need to be put in place by the 804 00:37:47,899 --> 00:37:48,599 need to be put in place by the country in question and they 805 00:37:48,599 --> 00:37:50,000 country in question and they have the answer is not one size 806 00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:51,500 have the answer is not one size fits all it depends on where 807 00:37:51,500 --> 00:37:53,034 fits all it depends on where you are in the path in the 808 00:37:53,034 --> 00:37:56,266 you are in the path in the development. 809 00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:54,434 Your own household or your own 810 00:40:54,434 --> 00:40:55,867 Your own household or your own creditors. you can do what you 811 00:40:55,867 --> 00:40:59,433 creditors. you can do what you like I mean they they they 812 00:40:59,433 --> 00:41:01,967 like I mean they they they support us to whether that edge 813 00:41:01,967 --> 00:41:03,734 support us to whether that edge is less costly if you have 814 00:41:03,734 --> 00:41:05,834 is less costly if you have extra savings so that you can 815 00:41:05,834 --> 00:41:07,400 extra savings so that you can allow yourself to have that 816 00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:09,867 allow yourself to have that reception without major cause 817 00:41:09,867 --> 00:41:11,566 reception without major cause is that fair is it fair? So you 818 00:41:11,566 --> 00:41:13,834 is that fair is it fair? So you know it’s it’s it’s uh it’s 819 00:41:13,834 --> 00:41:14,834 know it’s it’s it’s uh it’s interesting to see that in a 820 00:41:14,834 --> 00:41:15,867 interesting to see that in a way if you have extra savings, 821 00:41:15,867 --> 00:41:19,266 way if you have extra savings, you have leeway but it is that 822 00:41:19,266 --> 00:41:20,966 you have leeway but it is that is that all um so that was 823 00:41:20,966 --> 00:41:23,467 is that all um so that was just. On that, I think I pass 824 00:41:23,467 --> 00:41:25,667 just. On that, I think I pass to Isabel, We follow the right 825 00:41:25,667 --> 00:41:28,267 to Isabel, We follow the right order and anything whether it’s 826 00:41:28,267 --> 00:41:29,400 order and anything whether it’s respond to the speakers. The 827 00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,600 respond to the speakers. The question asked you name it. 828 00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:35,067 question asked you name it. Thank you. 829 00:41:43,266 --> 00:41:48,666 Isabel your commute. 830 00:42:22,933 --> 00:42:24,000 Perhaps one thing that you 831 00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:24,800 Perhaps one thing that you know, I don’t know if people 832 00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:26,600 know, I don’t know if people are really taken by surprise, 833 00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:27,834 are really taken by surprise, but the whole dynamic with you 834 00:42:27,834 --> 00:42:30,934 but the whole dynamic with you know rating agencies and sort 835 00:42:30,934 --> 00:42:33,433 know rating agencies and sort of you know to be you know to 836 00:42:33,433 --> 00:42:35,767 of you know to be you know to the asset class as a whole uh 837 00:42:35,767 --> 00:42:37,400 the asset class as a whole uh before anybody even applied for 838 00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:38,700 before anybody even applied for that relief that that was that 839 00:42:38,700 --> 00:42:41,167 that relief that that was that was in a way very unfortunate 840 00:42:41,167 --> 00:42:43,067 was in a way very unfortunate Um the second point I want you 841 00:42:43,067 --> 00:42:45,367 Um the second point I want you to react to is the one around 842 00:42:45,367 --> 00:42:46,966 to react to is the one around political sustainability of you 843 00:42:46,966 --> 00:42:48,167 political sustainability of you know having some governments, 844 00:42:48,167 --> 00:42:51,667 know having some governments, you know provide relief and 845 00:42:51,667 --> 00:42:53,399 you know provide relief and kind of idea that this has been 846 00:42:53,399 --> 00:42:55,466 kind of idea that this has been used to pay the the the the 847 00:42:55,466 --> 00:42:57,967 used to pay the the the the private credit. Um I think 848 00:42:57,967 --> 00:42:59,667 private credit. Um I think there’s two issues here one is 849 00:42:59,667 --> 00:43:01,233 there’s two issues here one is strictly internal to the 850 00:43:01,233 --> 00:43:01,967 strictly internal to the official sector and it’s the 851 00:43:01,967 --> 00:43:04,267 official sector and it’s the China issue is a new credit at 852 00:43:04,267 --> 00:43:05,667 China issue is a new credit at the table and I’m not even 853 00:43:05,667 --> 00:43:07,600 the table and I’m not even gonna touch that one because 854 00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:09,900 gonna touch that one because it’s a largely uh largely a 855 00:43:09,900 --> 00:43:13,367 it’s a largely uh largely a political lasted diplomatic 856 00:43:13,367 --> 00:43:14,699 political lasted diplomatic issue um but then you know in 857 00:43:14,699 --> 00:43:17,900 issue um but then you know in terms of the the the political 858 00:43:17,900 --> 00:43:18,799 terms of the the the political sustainability of using 859 00:43:18,799 --> 00:43:21,166 sustainability of using official funds to kind of repay 860 00:43:21,166 --> 00:43:21,967 official funds to kind of repay private creditors, I would I 861 00:43:21,967 --> 00:43:23,300 private creditors, I would I would you know, go back to what 862 00:43:23,300 --> 00:43:24,334 would you know, go back to what I was saying and again, not all 863 00:43:24,334 --> 00:43:28,400 I was saying and again, not all the private creditors. Are the 864 00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:30,834 the private creditors. Are the same but uh for a number of the 865 00:43:30,834 --> 00:43:33,800 same but uh for a number of the journal, it’s true in our case 866 00:43:33,800 --> 00:43:37,234 journal, it’s true in our case um the end investors are you 867 00:43:37,234 --> 00:43:39,234 um the end investors are you know people like you and me or 868 00:43:39,234 --> 00:43:41,333 know people like you and me or you know people who have given 869 00:43:41,333 --> 00:43:43,299 you know people who have given us their retirement savings and 870 00:43:43,299 --> 00:43:45,133 us their retirement savings and so I’m not sure it’s terribly 871 00:43:45,133 --> 00:43:46,867 so I’m not sure it’s terribly and much more political 872 00:43:46,867 --> 00:43:49,400 and much more political sustainable to tell them you 873 00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:50,699 sustainable to tell them you need to take a loss because 874 00:43:50,699 --> 00:43:53,299 need to take a loss because some government and you know uh 875 00:43:53,299 --> 00:43:54,833 some government and you know uh poor country has mismanage 876 00:43:54,833 --> 00:43:56,133 poor country has mismanage their exposure. So it’s not 877 00:43:56,133 --> 00:43:59,967 their exposure. So it’s not it’s not. And as as sometimes 878 00:43:59,967 --> 00:44:01,400 it’s not. And as as sometimes portrayed to be, you know Wall 879 00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:02,733 portrayed to be, you know Wall Street versus poor countries. 880 00:44:02,733 --> 00:44:05,333 Street versus poor countries. No it’s middle class everywhere 881 00:44:05,333 --> 00:44:07,767 No it’s middle class everywhere against um governments and in 882 00:44:07,767 --> 00:44:10,266 against um governments and in some countries um the last 883 00:44:10,266 --> 00:44:12,533 some countries um the last point is uh I think this 884 00:44:12,533 --> 00:44:15,234 point is uh I think this question that you know the the 885 00:44:15,234 --> 00:44:17,100 question that you know the the reason so sovereign 886 00:44:17,100 --> 00:44:18,567 reason so sovereign restructuring mechanism, it’s 887 00:44:18,567 --> 00:44:20,700 restructuring mechanism, it’s kind of been tried before for 888 00:44:20,700 --> 00:44:22,267 kind of been tried before for better or for worse, it didn’t 889 00:44:22,267 --> 00:44:23,800 better or for worse, it didn’t get political support in the 890 00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:26,633 get political support in the end uh but there is a need for 891 00:44:26,633 --> 00:44:29,199 end uh but there is a need for system wide predictable process 892 00:44:29,199 --> 00:44:30,734 system wide predictable process when you when you have good 893 00:44:30,734 --> 00:44:31,966 when you when you have good process like the Ecuador and I 894 00:44:31,966 --> 00:44:34,233 process like the Ecuador and I didn’t have the time. You know 895 00:44:34,233 --> 00:44:35,866 didn’t have the time. You know it took 2 weeks. you have the 896 00:44:35,866 --> 00:44:37,266 it took 2 weeks. you have the government that was proactive 897 00:44:37,266 --> 00:44:39,100 government that was proactive that was very constructive 898 00:44:39,100 --> 00:44:41,300 that was very constructive approach the IMF we had DSA, it 899 00:44:41,300 --> 00:44:43,334 approach the IMF we had DSA, it was it was wrapped up in 2 900 00:44:43,334 --> 00:44:45,167 was it was wrapped up in 2 weeks so it it can work when 901 00:44:45,167 --> 00:44:46,667 weeks so it it can work when you have a good process when 902 00:44:46,667 --> 00:44:48,800 you have a good process when you have good system, I also do 903 00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:50,767 you have good system, I also do think that if the world 904 00:44:50,767 --> 00:44:53,033 think that if the world continues to believe that 905 00:44:53,033 --> 00:44:54,866 continues to believe that Market-based finance is uh is 906 00:44:54,866 --> 00:44:57,334 Market-based finance is uh is uh is a good opportunity. Uh 907 00:44:57,334 --> 00:44:59,833 uh is a good opportunity. Uh good good means of financing 908 00:44:59,833 --> 00:45:01,867 good good means of financing development and emerging market 909 00:45:01,867 --> 00:45:04,266 development and emerging market than one needs to think. 910 00:45:04,266 --> 00:45:04,933 than one needs to think. Instruments like GDP index 911 00:45:04,933 --> 00:45:07,733 Instruments like GDP index funds are like um properly 912 00:45:07,733 --> 00:45:10,767 funds are like um properly labeled sustainable bonds of 913 00:45:10,767 --> 00:45:12,400 labeled sustainable bonds of social bonds that allow the 914 00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,333 social bonds that allow the creditor to uh buy by design 915 00:45:15,333 --> 00:45:16,933 creditor to uh buy by design that allow the credit to absorb 916 00:45:16,933 --> 00:45:19,234 that allow the credit to absorb some of the growth shocks that 917 00:45:19,234 --> 00:45:20,699 some of the growth shocks that uh that the country can face 918 00:45:20,699 --> 00:45:22,699 uh that the country can face that seems a better idea than 919 00:45:22,699 --> 00:45:24,666 that seems a better idea than kind of you know exposed 920 00:45:24,666 --> 00:45:27,034 kind of you know exposed saying, Okay you you guys need 921 00:45:27,034 --> 00:45:27,967 saying, Okay you you guys need to be a part of the cause? 922 00:45:27,967 --> 00:45:29,799 to be a part of the cause? Sometimes it’s inevitable but 923 00:45:29,799 --> 00:45:31,133 Sometimes it’s inevitable but um making rules as you go along 924 00:45:31,133 --> 00:45:32,467 um making rules as you go along as generally not not a good 925 00:45:32,467 --> 00:45:36,799 as generally not not a good idea. I’m up here. Thank you 926 00:45:36,799 --> 00:45:40,967 idea. I’m up here. Thank you Sabella um so Anna your turn 927 00:45:40,967 --> 00:45:43,767 Sabella um so Anna your turn while Isabel was speaking, we 928 00:45:43,767 --> 00:45:45,299 while Isabel was speaking, we got two questions from 929 00:45:45,299 --> 00:45:48,700 got two questions from Catherine one on basically um 930 00:45:48,700 --> 00:45:52,867 Catherine one on basically um how much dollar the nominated 931 00:45:52,867 --> 00:45:54,967 how much dollar the nominated that um makes the problem 932 00:45:54,967 --> 00:45:57,266 that um makes the problem bigger and in the same light 933 00:45:57,266 --> 00:45:59,699 bigger and in the same light slightly different question uh 934 00:45:59,699 --> 00:46:02,800 slightly different question uh how successful unconventional 935 00:46:02,800 --> 00:46:05,967 how successful unconventional policy has been in e N.. I 936 00:46:05,967 --> 00:46:07,467 policy has been in e N.. I guess that would be very hard 937 00:46:07,467 --> 00:46:10,600 guess that would be very hard to answer because we basically 938 00:46:10,600 --> 00:46:15,466 to answer because we basically have enough timeline of this uh 939 00:46:15,466 --> 00:46:17,301 have enough timeline of this uh experiences in the um to to 940 00:46:17,301 --> 00:46:18,733 experiences in the um to to judge, but it’s a very good 941 00:46:18,733 --> 00:46:21,700 judge, but it’s a very good question so uh it might not be 942 00:46:21,700 --> 00:46:24,301 question so uh it might not be uh answers prefer prefer 943 00:46:24,301 --> 00:46:26,734 uh answers prefer prefer questions. I understand that so 944 00:46:26,734 --> 00:46:29,967 questions. I understand that so we leave and and the time that 945 00:46:29,967 --> 00:46:33,934 we leave and and the time that we promised her to kind of wrap 946 00:46:33,934 --> 00:46:36,667 we promised her to kind of wrap up and then if somebody wants. 947 00:46:36,667 --> 00:46:38,400 up and then if somebody wants. Those questions, please feel 948 00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:39,967 Those questions, please feel free and we’ll end with that. 949 00:46:39,967 --> 00:46:42,300 free and we’ll end with that. Thank you so well. Thank you 950 00:46:42,300 --> 00:46:45,167 Thank you so well. Thank you and I think the the big point 951 00:46:45,167 --> 00:46:46,167 and I think the the big point is that nobody would wanna hear 952 00:46:46,167 --> 00:46:47,667 is that nobody would wanna hear what I think about you know 953 00:46:47,667 --> 00:46:51,201 what I think about you know unconventional monetary policy 954 00:46:51,201 --> 00:46:52,000 unconventional monetary policy or uh how much is too much cuz 955 00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:55,733 or uh how much is too much cuz that’s just not my um of 956 00:46:55,733 --> 00:46:59,799 that’s just not my um of expertise now um so I think we 957 00:46:59,799 --> 00:47:02,399 expertise now um so I think we actually agree on a lot here so 958 00:47:02,399 --> 00:47:07,867 actually agree on a lot here so first of all um I. That um 959 00:47:07,867 --> 00:47:11,734 first of all um I. That um contingent debt and most 960 00:47:11,734 --> 00:47:13,134 contingent debt and most importantly, for my 961 00:47:13,134 --> 00:47:14,299 importantly, for my perspective, I guess right now, 962 00:47:14,299 --> 00:47:15,834 perspective, I guess right now, the official sector should be 963 00:47:15,834 --> 00:47:18,200 the official sector should be thinking about um incorporating 964 00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:20,734 thinking about um incorporating uh contingency triggers in it’s 965 00:47:20,734 --> 00:47:22,766 uh contingency triggers in it’s financing right and I think 966 00:47:22,766 --> 00:47:24,667 financing right and I think that it’s actually a really 967 00:47:24,667 --> 00:47:27,933 that it’s actually a really good place for credit 968 00:47:27,933 --> 00:47:29,134 good place for credit enhancement for subsidies 969 00:47:29,134 --> 00:47:29,966 enhancement for subsidies because people have been 970 00:47:29,966 --> 00:47:31,834 because people have been talking about contingent and 971 00:47:31,834 --> 00:47:33,233 talking about contingent and GDP index death forever. 972 00:47:33,233 --> 00:47:34,667 GDP index death forever. there’s the Bank of England 973 00:47:34,667 --> 00:47:38,033 there’s the Bank of England term sheet um it’s. It doesn’t 974 00:47:38,033 --> 00:47:40,433 term sheet um it’s. It doesn’t seem to gain traction in the 975 00:47:40,433 --> 00:47:41,701 seem to gain traction in the market and so I think where 976 00:47:41,701 --> 00:47:45,267 market and so I think where there’s an opportunity to make 977 00:47:45,267 --> 00:47:48,334 there’s an opportunity to make a um structural intervention uh 978 00:47:48,334 --> 00:47:51,034 a um structural intervention uh to help um introduce and to 979 00:47:51,034 --> 00:47:54,800 to help um introduce and to help to remove the kind of the 980 00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:58,000 help to remove the kind of the novelty um uh the premium I 981 00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,233 novelty um uh the premium I guess from the from instruments 982 00:48:00,233 --> 00:48:01,733 guess from the from instruments like this, I think it’s a 983 00:48:01,733 --> 00:48:04,367 like this, I think it’s a really worthwhile place for the 984 00:48:04,367 --> 00:48:08,300 really worthwhile place for the public sector to consider uh. 985 00:48:08,300 --> 00:48:09,734 public sector to consider uh. Given the extreme uncertainty 986 00:48:09,734 --> 00:48:11,267 Given the extreme uncertainty right of the environment in 987 00:48:11,267 --> 00:48:13,700 right of the environment in which we’re operating so really 988 00:48:13,700 --> 00:48:16,800 which we’re operating so really preparing to adapt is the name 989 00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:19,034 preparing to adapt is the name of the game right now. Um we 990 00:48:19,034 --> 00:48:20,266 of the game right now. Um we don’t know what’s gonna happen 991 00:48:20,266 --> 00:48:24,434 don’t know what’s gonna happen 6 months from now um as far as 992 00:48:24,434 --> 00:48:25,800 6 months from now um as far as um, so I do think that the 993 00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:27,267 um, so I do think that the difference between um the 994 00:48:27,267 --> 00:48:28,234 difference between um the challenge of restructuring 995 00:48:28,234 --> 00:48:29,734 challenge of restructuring bonds and loans is unbelievably 996 00:48:29,734 --> 00:48:32,867 bonds and loans is unbelievably over played um loans to 10 997 00:48:32,867 --> 00:48:34,799 over played um loans to 10 years there were thousands of 998 00:48:34,799 --> 00:48:36,834 years there were thousands of creditors in Mexico alone, 999 00:48:36,834 --> 00:48:38,000 creditors in Mexico alone, Argentina, which is the bad 1000 00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:42,201 Argentina, which is the bad child um took. Um and that’s 1001 00:48:42,201 --> 00:48:45,634 child um took. Um and that’s you know very generously 1002 00:48:45,634 --> 00:48:47,933 you know very generously described and you know the 1003 00:48:47,933 --> 00:48:50,433 described and you know the fears of killing the asset 1004 00:48:50,433 --> 00:48:51,700 fears of killing the asset class where the big argument 1005 00:48:51,700 --> 00:48:53,600 class where the big argument for not adopting collective 1006 00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:55,400 for not adopting collective action clauses, which are the 1007 00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:57,434 action clauses, which are the warm and cuddly everybody’s 1008 00:48:57,434 --> 00:48:58,566 warm and cuddly everybody’s favorite. now right I mean in 1009 00:48:58,566 --> 00:48:59,967 favorite. now right I mean in the in nineteen if you look at 1010 00:48:59,967 --> 00:49:02,433 the in nineteen if you look at the press in 9698 collective 1011 00:49:02,433 --> 00:49:03,767 the press in 9698 collective action classes, we’re gonna 1012 00:49:03,767 --> 00:49:04,700 action classes, we’re gonna kill the asset class. so I 1013 00:49:04,700 --> 00:49:06,333 kill the asset class. so I think that a lot of this is 1014 00:49:06,333 --> 00:49:08,733 think that a lot of this is about adaptation and I do think 1015 00:49:08,733 --> 00:49:12,366 about adaptation and I do think that DSI in the spring was. 1016 00:49:12,366 --> 00:49:14,833 that DSI in the spring was. Poorly structured and misplayed 1017 00:49:14,833 --> 00:49:18,733 Poorly structured and misplayed um in a number of ways in every 1018 00:49:18,733 --> 00:49:21,066 um in a number of ways in every direction um I do think that we 1019 00:49:21,066 --> 00:49:23,466 direction um I do think that we should be careful not to fetish 1020 00:49:23,466 --> 00:49:25,900 should be careful not to fetish the idea of bankruptcy right 1021 00:49:25,900 --> 00:49:27,299 the idea of bankruptcy right because bankruptcy is a 1022 00:49:27,299 --> 00:49:29,000 because bankruptcy is a political bargain, which is 1023 00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:29,966 political bargain, which is actually a good thing right. 1024 00:49:29,966 --> 00:49:31,234 actually a good thing right. It’s it’s a it’s a it’s a 1025 00:49:31,234 --> 00:49:34,767 It’s it’s a it’s a it’s a public ordering mechanism um 1026 00:49:34,767 --> 00:49:36,266 public ordering mechanism um but a political bargain doesn’t 1027 00:49:36,266 --> 00:49:37,800 but a political bargain doesn’t you know allows for a wide 1028 00:49:37,800 --> 00:49:39,900 you know allows for a wide range of distribution outcomes. 1029 00:49:39,900 --> 00:49:41,966 range of distribution outcomes. I suspect that. Folks who 1030 00:49:41,966 --> 00:49:44,767 I suspect that. Folks who really favor bankruptcy um 1031 00:49:44,767 --> 00:49:45,967 really favor bankruptcy um would rather you know, would be 1032 00:49:45,967 --> 00:49:49,867 would rather you know, would be shocked to see um you know 1033 00:49:49,867 --> 00:49:50,500 shocked to see um you know municipal bond holders being 1034 00:49:50,500 --> 00:49:52,733 municipal bond holders being ahead of labor unions right, I 1035 00:49:52,733 --> 00:49:53,767 ahead of labor unions right, I mean whatever your views on the 1036 00:49:53,767 --> 00:49:56,699 mean whatever your views on the merits are right so um hey, 1037 00:49:56,699 --> 00:49:59,233 merits are right so um hey, there are some serious 1038 00:49:59,233 --> 00:50:00,899 there are some serious structural institutional and 1039 00:50:00,899 --> 00:50:03,434 structural institutional and political economy impediments 1040 00:50:03,434 --> 00:50:05,767 political economy impediments to um having an international 1041 00:50:05,767 --> 00:50:08,234 to um having an international sovereign bankruptcy regime But 1042 00:50:08,234 --> 00:50:10,933 sovereign bankruptcy regime But BI think that the big. Is 1043 00:50:10,933 --> 00:50:13,299 BI think that the big. Is really what bankruptcy and what 1044 00:50:13,299 --> 00:50:14,866 really what bankruptcy and what mechanisms and in some ways I 1045 00:50:14,866 --> 00:50:16,133 mechanisms and in some ways I feel like that conversation can 1046 00:50:16,133 --> 00:50:17,333 feel like that conversation can be a bit of a distraction and 1047 00:50:17,333 --> 00:50:20,500 be a bit of a distraction and we should focus on uh more on 1048 00:50:20,500 --> 00:50:22,701 we should focus on uh more on particular mechanisms of 1049 00:50:22,701 --> 00:50:23,800 particular mechanisms of coordination where I think we 1050 00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:26,299 coordination where I think we all agree and particular 1051 00:50:26,299 --> 00:50:27,800 all agree and particular distribution outcomes that are 1052 00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:30,633 distribution outcomes that are politically sustainable. So 1053 00:50:30,633 --> 00:50:33,234 politically sustainable. So thank you. Thank you and uh 1054 00:50:33,234 --> 00:50:35,833 thank you. Thank you and uh would anybody like to take the 1055 00:50:35,833 --> 00:50:38,333 would anybody like to take the questions from the audience on 1056 00:50:38,333 --> 00:50:40,467 questions from the audience on effectiveness of QE and if not 1057 00:50:40,467 --> 00:50:42,700 effectiveness of QE and if not the dollar that story the 1058 00:50:42,700 --> 00:50:45,200 the dollar that story the amplifying nature of the dollar 1059 00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:48,233 amplifying nature of the dollar that. 1060 00:50:49,700 --> 00:50:50,499 Just say I mean on on the 1061 00:50:50,499 --> 00:50:52,900 Just say I mean on on the dollar that question that 1062 00:50:52,900 --> 00:50:54,334 dollar that question that that’s exactly what I was 1063 00:50:54,334 --> 00:50:55,433 that’s exactly what I was trying to refer to when I 1064 00:50:55,433 --> 00:50:56,767 trying to refer to when I talked about the importance of 1065 00:50:56,767 --> 00:50:58,299 talked about the importance of macro existential policy so one 1066 00:50:58,299 --> 00:51:00,766 macro existential policy so one of the very important elements 1067 00:51:00,766 --> 00:51:02,700 of the very important elements of a good machens policy in a 1068 00:51:02,700 --> 00:51:04,267 of a good machens policy in a developing country would be 1069 00:51:04,267 --> 00:51:06,300 developing country would be that you match your dollar 1070 00:51:06,300 --> 00:51:08,734 that you match your dollar liabilities to your quote 1071 00:51:08,734 --> 00:51:10,434 liabilities to your quote unquote dollar assets in 1072 00:51:10,434 --> 00:51:12,299 unquote dollar assets in particular, what that means is 1073 00:51:12,299 --> 00:51:13,867 particular, what that means is that it does not, for example, 1074 00:51:13,867 --> 00:51:15,367 that it does not, for example, it would make no sense for the 1075 00:51:15,367 --> 00:51:17,500 it would make no sense for the country to take on dollar 1076 00:51:17,500 --> 00:51:20,567 country to take on dollar financing. 1077 00:53:06,700 --> 00:53:08,167 We know there’s nothing they 1078 00:53:08,167 --> 00:53:11,866 We know there’s nothing they can do to manage their debt 1079 00:53:11,866 --> 00:53:13,667 can do to manage their debt better now um in the face of 1080 00:53:13,667 --> 00:53:17,467 better now um in the face of this external shock that is 1081 00:53:17,467 --> 00:53:19,967 this external shock that is global and that again to me, I 1082 00:53:19,967 --> 00:53:21,366 global and that again to me, I guess emphasizes the importance 1083 00:53:21,366 --> 00:53:25,434 guess emphasizes the importance of coordination um and 1084 00:53:25,434 --> 00:53:27,700 of coordination um and adaptation um because it’s it’s 1085 00:53:27,700 --> 00:53:30,700 adaptation um because it’s it’s a shared problem. We all have. 1086 00:53:30,700 --> 00:53:34,233 a shared problem. We all have. Well, that’s that’s a wonderful 1087 00:53:34,233 --> 00:53:37,466 Well, that’s that’s a wonderful way to uh and I’m not sure that 1088 00:53:37,466 --> 00:53:40,434 way to uh and I’m not sure that you know all creators my agree 1089 00:53:40,434 --> 00:53:43,967 you know all creators my agree and I want to push Isabel her 1090 00:53:43,967 --> 00:53:46,734 and I want to push Isabel her at the point is the shock is 1091 00:53:46,734 --> 00:53:49,466 at the point is the shock is coming for everybody. It’s it’s 1092 00:53:49,466 --> 00:53:51,799 coming for everybody. It’s it’s a shop for the deer. It’s a 1093 00:53:51,799 --> 00:53:54,167 a shop for the deer. It’s a shop. the creditor the very 1094 00:53:54,167 --> 00:53:55,667 shop. the creditor the very same people who may have 1095 00:53:55,667 --> 00:53:58,900 same people who may have invested in you know in in my 1096 00:53:58,900 --> 00:53:59,967 invested in you know in in my have lost their jobs. I mean 1097 00:53:59,967 --> 00:54:02,133 have lost their jobs. I mean it’s it’s very hard to anyway I 1098 00:54:02,133 --> 00:54:04,567 it’s it’s very hard to anyway I fully agree with. Donations 1099 00:54:04,567 --> 00:54:06,734 fully agree with. Donations story, But the point is that 1100 00:54:06,734 --> 00:54:08,867 story, But the point is that it’s a it’s in a way. it’s a 1101 00:54:08,867 --> 00:54:09,833 it’s a it’s in a way. it’s a coordination that needs to 1102 00:54:09,833 --> 00:54:11,301 coordination that needs to happen when everybody’s losing 1103 00:54:11,301 --> 00:54:12,833 happen when everybody’s losing because this is a global a 1104 00:54:12,833 --> 00:54:16,299 because this is a global a global negative shock, and that 1105 00:54:16,299 --> 00:54:17,900 global negative shock, and that makes the solution even harder 1106 00:54:17,900 --> 00:54:20,266 makes the solution even harder to find because it’s all about 1107 00:54:20,266 --> 00:54:23,199 to find because it’s all about who gives away more since 1108 00:54:23,199 --> 00:54:25,666 who gives away more since nobody will win out of this 1109 00:54:25,666 --> 00:54:28,667 nobody will win out of this situation and it also brings to 1110 00:54:28,667 --> 00:54:31,366 situation and it also brings to mind and to me this idea that 1111 00:54:31,366 --> 00:54:34,233 mind and to me this idea that we may be. This right, you know 1112 00:54:34,233 --> 00:54:36,200 we may be. This right, you know in financial markets this 1113 00:54:36,200 --> 00:54:38,301 in financial markets this wonderful and everything else, 1114 00:54:38,301 --> 00:54:41,734 wonderful and everything else, but we’re in a way because of 1115 00:54:41,734 --> 00:54:43,500 but we’re in a way because of that, we’re maybe only making 1116 00:54:43,500 --> 00:54:44,600 that, we’re maybe only making the problem bigger because 1117 00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:46,267 the problem bigger because we’re not seeing it. I mean it 1118 00:54:46,267 --> 00:54:48,334 we’re not seeing it. I mean it we’re kind of all toyed with 1119 00:54:48,334 --> 00:54:50,233 we’re kind of all toyed with this idea that the stimulus is 1120 00:54:50,233 --> 00:54:52,767 this idea that the stimulus is working this market access uh 1121 00:54:52,767 --> 00:54:54,467 working this market access uh they’re even doing QE you know 1122 00:54:54,467 --> 00:54:56,833 they’re even doing QE you know and I just wonder whether 1123 00:54:56,833 --> 00:54:59,334 and I just wonder whether that’s in a way blowing our 1124 00:54:59,334 --> 00:55:00,700 that’s in a way blowing our minds as to how big the problem 1125 00:55:00,700 --> 00:55:03,199 minds as to how big the problem is and maybe. Getting ready 1126 00:55:03,199 --> 00:55:05,034 is and maybe. Getting ready with solutions as the ones you 1127 00:55:05,034 --> 00:55:06,267 with solutions as the ones you have proposed in the sections 1128 00:55:06,267 --> 00:55:08,966 have proposed in the sections such as in the sessions such as 1129 00:55:08,966 --> 00:55:11,133 such as in the sessions such as you know in the scene or 1130 00:55:11,133 --> 00:55:12,666 you know in the scene or coordinations of all kinds of 1131 00:55:12,666 --> 00:55:14,033 coordinations of all kinds of you know the many things with 1132 00:55:14,033 --> 00:55:15,600 you know the many things with this cuz I don’t want to repeat 1133 00:55:15,600 --> 00:55:17,967 this cuz I don’t want to repeat them all so in a way we’re not 1134 00:55:17,967 --> 00:55:20,133 them all so in a way we’re not using the time that the markets 1135 00:55:20,133 --> 00:55:23,400 using the time that the markets have kindly offered us to react 1136 00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:26,333 have kindly offered us to react to what might be a very harsh 1137 00:55:26,333 --> 00:55:28,800 to what might be a very harsh reality. um both from the 1138 00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:30,000 reality. um both from the official sector, I would argue 1139 00:55:30,000 --> 00:55:32,401 official sector, I would argue that you know uh the IMF strike 1140 00:55:32,401 --> 00:55:36,234 that you know uh the IMF strike very hard to um. The wolf is 1141 00:55:36,234 --> 00:55:38,167 very hard to um. The wolf is coming and you know no 1142 00:55:38,167 --> 00:55:39,134 coming and you know no reaction, but the reality is 1143 00:55:39,134 --> 00:55:41,200 reaction, but the reality is that we’ve not really taken 1144 00:55:41,200 --> 00:55:42,400 that we’ve not really taken major steps to solve this 1145 00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:44,233 major steps to solve this problem. That’s that’s what I 1146 00:55:44,233 --> 00:55:46,833 problem. That’s that’s what I worry most about it and that I 1147 00:55:46,833 --> 00:55:50,166 worry most about it and that I wanted to kind of insist on 1148 00:55:50,166 --> 00:55:51,700 wanted to kind of insist on before we end the session that 1149 00:55:51,700 --> 00:55:53,366 before we end the session that we have ideas here, which is 1150 00:55:53,366 --> 00:55:55,134 we have ideas here, which is great. That’s what is about. 1151 00:55:55,134 --> 00:55:56,600 great. That’s what is about. It’s about policy discussions. 1152 00:55:56,600 --> 00:55:59,700 It’s about policy discussions. so I thank you all for that for 1153 00:55:59,700 --> 00:56:02,667 so I thank you all for that for this ideas, but in a way I feel 1154 00:56:02,667 --> 00:56:04,434 this ideas, but in a way I feel that this is not enough 1155 00:56:04,434 --> 00:56:06,333 that this is not enough discussion out there as to what 1156 00:56:06,333 --> 00:56:10,833 discussion out there as to what may come. And so I hope you’ll 1157 00:56:10,833 --> 00:56:13,800 may come. And so I hope you’ll call upon important policy 1158 00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:16,200 call upon important policy discussions as well as well to 1159 00:56:16,200 --> 00:56:17,734 discussions as well as well to take your ideas forward. So 1160 00:56:17,734 --> 00:56:19,266 take your ideas forward. So thanks very much for your 1161 00:56:19,266 --> 00:56:20,667 thanks very much for your participation. It’s been a 1162 00:56:20,667 --> 00:56:22,834 participation. It’s been a pleasure. Thank you so much. 1163 00:56:22,834 --> 00:56:25,533 pleasure. Thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you. Thank 1164 00:56:25,533 --> 00:56:28,634 Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.